Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Run, don’t walk, to your nearest bricks and mortar or online bookseller and pick up Kerry O’Brien, a memoir. It is a brilliant, meticulously-researched 800-page account of the last 40 years of Australian politics, with social and cultural sidebars. O’Brien accurately nails John Howard’s Iraq war guilt reminding us of Howard’s role in that disaster. It is no surprise that Kerry is a great storyteller, with evocative pictures of Australian life in his 73 years. There are numerous excerpts from many of the penetrating interviews he had, often still resonating today. It will also underline our disappointment at the current state of the 7.30 program. On that note it is quite striking that while O’Brien writes extensively of the contributions of many ABC news and public affairs people I couldn’t find one reference to Leigh Sales in the index.

  4. Could this be ‘nath’?
    https://www.instagram.com/justinmeechan/

    It certainly is the Instagram account linked to the Justin Meechan You Tube account that bodgied up that video that ‘nath’ posted. Interestingly, the You Tube account Home page for Justin Meechan has a banner photo of… Mornington Peninsula, Victoria, Bathing Boxes. 🙂

    Then again it could just be a facade for an internet troll whose specialty is trolling Bill Shorten.

  5. Clem A states, ‘socialism is the public ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange. Always has been, always will be. ‘

    When I refer to the history of the disastrous attempts to apply this to agriculture, Clem starts hyperventilating about ‘straw men’.

    Well, no, Clem. Your socialism as applied to farming has always been a disaster. That is not a straw man. That is a fact. I suggest you review your ideology. It keeps failing on the land.

  6. Hugh Brown @ #1798 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 3:09 pm

    On Australia being a dumping ground for the more embarrassing scions of the British aristocracy, don’t we see a lot of Prince Harry these days.

    On the democratic qualities of the Brexit referendum, the UK public were sold a pig in a poke by both major Leave campaigns, assisted by probable criminal overspending. Given the rather close result I’m not really convinced that doggedly ploughing ahead with the current clusterfuck can be reasonably described as representative of the will of the British people.

    Narcissistic dictators have thought processes like this.

    The people have spoken. The Govt of the democracy should deliver the peoples’ chosen path.

  7. Hugh Brown
    A second referendum would at least have the benefit of being in the nature of prior informed consent.
    The last one was anything but.

  8. clem attlee
    “! So according to you, millions of working class British people deserve oblivion. Why exactly, what is their crime ? British workers appreciate your empathy….not!”

    What is their crime? ….too easy, voting leave.
    They can now wear it & the consequences

  10. Senator Linda Reynolds (Lib. WA) went on radio in Perth today claiming she fought mightily for the space facilities to be located in WA but that the WA Labor Government had not even bothered to put in an application, thus stymying her efforts.

    WA labor promptly denied this, and posted the entire submission it made to the Feds, in August, on social media.

    It appears the Lib clown didn’t even follow up with her Federal counterparts or seek details from the WA government to see if a submission had been made before shooting off her mouth.

    So much for her faux anguish.

  11. Boerwar @ #1806 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 3:21 pm

    Hugh Brown
    A second referendum would at least have the benefit of being in the nature of prior informed consent.
    The last one was anything but.

    The people want a Brexit.

    The Labour rank and file want Corbyn.

    Corbyn is the alternative PM who will deliver where the tories have failed.

    That’s the reality. That’s democracy.

    Enough of the narcissistic dictatorship sentiments.

  14. Fulvio Sammut @ #1810 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 3:23 pm

    Senator Linda Reynolds (Lib. WA) went on radio in Perth today claiming she fought mightily for the space facilities to be located in WA but that the WA Labor Government had not even bothered to put in an application, thus stymying her efforts.

    WA labor promptly denied this, and posted the entire submission it made to the Feds, in August, on social media.

    It appears the Lib clown didn’t even follow up with her Federal counterparts or seek details from the WA government to see if a submission had been made before shooting off her mouth.

    So much for her faux anguish.

    They’re not very well-co-ordinated in the PMO as far as the Talking Points they farm out to their MPs before they send them off on a frolic on radio are they? 🙂

  15. Rex, are you really so ignorant of what’s been going on surrounding Brexit that you think anyone suggesting that it might have been, at least, something of a cock up and, at worst, a gigantic criminal fraud, has tendencies towards narcissistic dictatorship? Stupid question I know. Of course you are. Go back to Shorten bashing. It’s where your limited talents lie.

    As for Brexit itself, I’m in the second vote camp. The electorate is now far better informed and, hopefully, the electoral authorities will be sufficiently vigilant to eliminate/prevent fraud by either side. A properly informed, clean vote is surely as democratic as it gets.

  16. Just like I would expect any republic vote to be split into at least two phases, the first on yes/no to a republic, the second on the form it will take.

    The people are now seeing the proposed form Brexit will take. It’s only one of many that could have been and imagined, and they should have their say on it.

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, December 12, 2018 at 3:17 pm

    Could this be ‘nath’?
    https://www.instagram.com/justinmeechan/

    It certainly is the Instagram account linked to the Justin Meechan You Tube account that bodgied up that video that ‘nath’ posted. Interestingly, the You Tube account Home page for Justin Meechan has a banner photo of… Mornington Peninsula, Victoria, Bathing Boxes.

    Then again it could just be a facade for an internet troll whose specialty is trolling Bill Shorten.
    ____________________________________
    So what If I am Justin. I have made no attempt to determine who anyone else here is and I find your attempts to ‘out’ me as just another part of your bullying mindset. Me, on the other hand, couldn’t care less who anyone here actually is, and it would be pretty sinister to try.

  19. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, December 12, 2018 at 1:58 pm
    Scott Morrison announces the key appointments for new Space Station in SA.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………

    I am not sure who the other 2 appointments are but I don’t think appointing Sophie Mirabella will go down well with the voting public. I suppose her appointment to the board of Australian “Canoes” Corporation is supposed to give her some experience. After all, if she couldn’t get them to sink maybe her talent is getting things to fly.

  20. I can’t wait for Hadley and all his hate mongering shock jocks to go troppo over F#%#$ing soft ‘out of touch with community values ‘ judges and their namby pampy slap on the wrist punishments.. 😉
    .
    Former police officer Daniel Hadley has had a drug charge for cocaine possession dismissed on mental health ground
    https://outline.com/GuuC6X

  21. Hugh Brown @ #1814 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 3:32 pm

    Rex, are you really so ignorant of what’s been going on surrounding Brexit that you think anyone suggesting that it might have been, at least, something of a cock up and, at worst, a gigantic criminal fraud, has tendencies towards narcissistic dictatorship? Stupid question I know. Of course you are. Go back to Shorten bashing. It’s where your limited talents lie.

    As for Brexit itself, I’m in the second vote camp. The electorate is now far better informed and, hopefully, the electoral authorities will be sufficiently vigilant to eliminate/prevent fraud by either side. A properly informed, clean vote is surely as democratic as it gets.

    You only want a second vote because the peoples’ view didn’t match your view.

    A narcissistic trait if there ever was one.

  22. BW,


    Well, no, Clem. Your socialism as applied to farming has always been a disaster. That is not a straw man. That is a fact. I suggest you review your ideology. It keeps failing on the land.

    I mentioned Nobel-prize winning economist Hurwicz yesterday. One of his documented motivations was understanding the disasters of Soviet-directed agricultural production.

  24. Dovey @ #1645 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 11:37 am

    More importantly, he does not continue to mindlessly parrot the same line over and over again despite having it refuted by a number of people on this blog, not looking at you P1 and Nath.

    Ob a few occasions I have been wrong or mistaken, and I have admitted it and moved on.

    Unlike some here, who can’t ever seem to accept they have lost an argument … eh Dovey?

  26. The Blairite neo-libs are showing incredible arrogance in dismissing the peoples’ vote on a Brexit.

    Murdoch-type thinking at it’s best.

  30. The English have always considered themselves too good for Europe (‘Wogs begin at Calais’). Brexit will give them the opportunity to prove that. On the other hand…

  32. poroti says:
    Wednesday, December 12, 2018 at 3:48 pm
    I can’t wait for Hadley and all his hate mongering shock jocks to go troppo over F#%#$ing soft ‘out of touch with community values ‘ judges and their namby pampy slap on the wrist punishments..
    .
    Former police officer Daniel Hadley has had a drug charge for cocaine possession dismissed on mental health ground
    https://outline.com/GuuC6X

    Hadley spends an incredible amount of time regurgitating the details (with his own commentary added) of every arrest and court case in NSW and Queensland. Inevitably the accused are presumed guilty and as for namby pamby lenient judges…

  35. The Soviets farming socialists came to their senses, partially and eventually, and allowed collective members to grow small personal plots for the market. But not before millions had died of starvation in some of the richest corn growing regions of Europe.

    The productivity per hectare of those small plots vastly outstripped that of the collectives.

    Same in China.

  36. LU
    I would not have thought it to be too hard.
    He could start by looking at how statist top-down targets are disconnected with whatever is happening on the ground.
    He could look at how management by committee works in any sphere and how it is particularly unsuited to when, for example, thunderstorms are drenching your ripe corn.
    He could check what happens when there are no family rewards from individual family members’ efforts. This includes inter-generational hand over.
    He could follow that up with the general disconnect between effort and reward.
    Of course where everything is socialized, the farm collectives have to work with third rate equipment from the socialized tractor factories and the harvested food rots in the socialized railway carriages or gets ratted in the silos.
    He could finalize it by noting that the usual agricultural risk/reward framework is completely reversed.
    Why take a punt? You might as well just get stupified on vodka.

  37. More
    .@LiberalVictoria treasurer David Mond has quit his post over claims of poor administration, misconduct in governance and operation of party. Says there’s been financial impropriety. Calls for a full external review more soon @abcmelbourne #springst #auspol

  38. nath says:
    Wednesday, December 12, 2018 at 3:45 pm
    So what If I am Justin. I have made no attempt to determine who anyone else here is and I find your attempts to ‘out’ me as just another part of your bullying mindset. Me, on the other hand, couldn’t care less who anyone here actually is, and it would be pretty sinister to try.

    Who are the two older people in the photos nath?

  41. Peter Stanton @ #1840 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 4:08 pm

    nath says:
    Wednesday, December 12, 2018 at 3:45 pm
    So what If I am Justin. I have made no attempt to determine who anyone else here is and I find your attempts to ‘out’ me as just another part of your bullying mindset. Me, on the other hand, couldn’t care less who anyone here actually is, and it would be pretty sinister to try.

    Who are the two older people in the photos nath?

    A couple of clowns. 😆

  42. Ven @ #1680 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 12:57 pm

    Witnesses have told The New Daily that population expert Professor Peter McDonald, from the Australian National University, told the meeting that migration at current levels would boost the nation’s economy.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/12/12/premiers-laugh-pm-migration-coag/

    Sorry if already posted, but I thought its worth seeing.
    ‘
    Guytaur
    P2 will be upset

    Did you mean P1? If so, you are mistaken. This is old news. Everyone knows is just about the only reason our economy has been growing recently. The government is addicted to high migration – it gets to take the credit for growth it actually had little or nothing to do with generating, and the downside is borne by future generations, not by them.

    But growth is not always a good thing – not only is this level of growth unsustainable, it is one of the main reasons our C02 emissions are still growing rather than falling, despite all the renewables we are installing 🙁

    Australia should reduce its population growth to rational and sustainable levels. If we did that, we might indeed meet our Paris commitments “in a canter”

  43. A government review has spectacularly rejected claims that the ABC and SBS enjoy an unfair competitive advantage over their commercial rivals.

    Communications Minister Mitch Fifield indicated he would take no action in response to the six-month inquiry, saying it was up to the broadcasters to deal with the report’s limited recommendations.

    The review – agreed in a deal between the Turnbull government and One Nation – found the public broadcasters competed fairly in the marketplace and abided by their charters.

    In a report released Wednesday, a panel led by retired economist Robert Kerr rejected every major claim against the ABC and SBS made by commercial media organisations, including News Corp and the free-to-air broadcasters.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/review-clears-abc-and-sbs-over-claims-they-compete-unfairly-with-commercial-rivals-20181212-p50lpj.html

  44. C@tmomma @ #1693 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 1:13 pm

    If you read the whole article it is explained that there is a Baby Boomer retirement and Ageing crunch coming up quite soon and that due to a cohort of the population staying in study longer in the 90s, also a contributing factor, that Australia will actually go backwards and not ‘grow, grow, grow’ at all. So, a reasonable level of immigration needs to be maintained.

    A perfect Ponzi scheme … until the wheels fall off 🙁

  46. Regarding G. Pell

    URL deleted

    December 11, 2018

    Further details are unavailable as the court has issued a suppression order to Australian media to “prevent a real and substantial risk of prejudice to the proper administration of justice.”

    So the date is yesterday. When or how does a suppression order get lifted?

    EDIT: Took PuffTMD’s advice and removed a bunch of words.

  47. Peter Stanton @ #1840 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 3:38 pm

    nath says:
    Wednesday, December 12, 2018 at 3:45 pm
    So what If I am Justin. I have made no attempt to determine who anyone else here is and I find your attempts to ‘out’ me as just another part of your bullying mindset. Me, on the other hand, couldn’t care less who anyone here actually is, and it would be pretty sinister to try.

    Who are the two older people in the photos nath?

    Outing anyone’s online persona is distinctly odious and I do not see how anyone who does that would be welcome on any blog. It is bullying and harassment in the extreme.

  48. EGT

    Thank you for your post. Were I to reform agriculture, which I would dearly love to do, I would make some systemic changes.

    The first would be to force the environmental costs into the price. Currently farmers are forced to extract the environmental costs from the environment on behalf of consumers. The environmental costs would include the control of ferals and weeds. Where environmental indicators are going backwards, this would be a signal to increase environmental costs in the price. Some of this would need to be levied on a regional rather than on a farm basis.

    The second would be put a 100% tax on real capital gain less the real cost capital improvements. I believe this would address at least one of your points: land banking. At the moment much farming pressure comes from overcapitalization of farmland in the hope of capital gains. This step would also address windfall gains from such communal investments as irrigation dams. The 100% real capital gains tax would be levied at point of death or sale.

    The third would be to split up colesworth.

    The fourth would be apply the relevant principles in all FTA Agreements.

    The fifth would be eliminate trust arrangements as they apply to farm production.

  49. Saying high levels of immigration boosts the economy is so bloody silly.

    Any activity boosts the economy.

    Digging up coal and moving it around boosts the economy .

    Chopping down the last bit of forest boosts the economy.

    And what’s a “population expert”. Given that people now come as “amounts” rather than numbers, i assume a population expert is one who can tell us how many million tonnes of immigrants will arrive this year.

  50. Just saying that the Pell matter is subject to suppression orders and re-posting material here is likely to cause William grief. Would be a good idea to remove your posts until the situation is clarified.

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