Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Barney:

    Guytaur is like one of those religious zealots. Always ramming his own opinion down other people’s throats, arrogantly stating his views are the only views that matter, and refusing to even acknowledge alternate points of view.

    There is absolutely no point in discussing anything with him.

  2. Call me an optimist but is it possible that if we all stop responding to Guytaur he may shut up.

    Mr Bow, do you have a suitable insurance policy where I can seek compensation for the repetitive strain injury to my scanning finger?

  4. So, it looks like the Tory fantasists have submitted their 48 letters to Tory High Command. I wonder how many of the hard-nosed Brexiters will really care if the whole shemozzle is abandoned. After all, they will have a wonderful stabbed in the back mythology and no responsibility for what happens. I strongly suspect that there will be an extension of the A50 withdrawal coming into effect (for further negotiations, of course) and then the whole thing will be abandoned.

  5. Good morning all,

    I posted a few days ago that I think one of the best things Turnbull did for labor ( and there have been a few ) was to play silly buggers over the Super Saturday by elections and forcing labor to move National Conference to December.

    The political year has now played out despite the best efforts of Morrison and the MSM to ramp it up over the holidays and labor has been handed the opportunity to have the last crack and present a solid United policy platform leading up to the election. ” Contentious ” issues will be bedded down, Shorten will emerge from National Conference looking strong and with his authority enhanced and Morrison can go and suck eggs.

    Once again the government MSM propaganda wing has done more favours for Shorten than they obviously intended by pushing the ” Shorten under pressure ” angle and ” division within labor ” headlines.

    National Conference will be a dry run campaign launch finishing with Shorten front and centre as leader of a united party.

    Suck on that Morrison.

  7. “You have speculation and believe about what some Liberal people may have done ”

    And we have the historical record showing the Greens are useless wankers when i comes to policy.

    Would be good if the left of politics could work together for actual outcomes, but until the Greens develop into more than whiny showponies thats going to be difficult.

  9. Immacca

    Nah we have historical record that the Greens are good when it come to policy. See ACT See Gillard Minority Government See NZ Adern Government.

    Pity the fact the Greens work with Labor and other parties when it counts is part of the historical record

  10. OT, but has anyone been having trouble with Chrom browser of late. Me just gone back to Firefox as Chrome on my PC kept cashing and evena re-install wouldn’t fix it??

    Thats on my home PC which is an older i7 / Asus motherboard, Win7 32bit / 64bit dual boot. Salvaged parts from a work throwout. 🙂 5 year old i7 with 16GB of ram. Added a power supply and all good. Dont think its a hardware issue though?

  13. Call me an optimist but is it possible that if we all stop responding to Guytaur he may shut up

    It really isnt a big deal to let someone have the last word, no matter how poorly you think their argument is or their debating style is. If you dont, then the argument boils down to ‘last person standing’ and that can make the blog painful to scroll through.

    But hey, it has been like this since… forever…. and it helps remind those at work to get back to the grind.

  15. nath

    The commentary since I said I was going to vote Green 1 Labor 2 over the encryption legislation has been very very telling.

    I have not even asked people to agree with me but as I have said before you would think by the attacks I had announced I was going to vote for Trump. Or Fraser Anning or such like.

    Showing very tribal behaviour by some. Even though I have praised Labor as recently as today.
    If I don’t know anything about politics that means I should not be voting Labor because of all the attacks I am getting.

    Its certainly not attracting me to Labor. I find it very unedifying.

  16. While I am here – am I the only one entirely sick of the smirking joking response to Trump? I mean…. Skunk Tinkle? FFS. Great line but Trump wins every time it degenerates like that.

  17. antonbruckner11

    Yes I can see a delay to that March 29th 2019 deadline coming on.

    If I were May, I would announce a second referendum – on the actual deal as negotiated. This would be held on the same day as a General Election. After organizing these two things (you have to go to the Queen don’t you, because of ‘the Divine Right of Kings’ or something?), I would stand down as leader of the Conservative Party.

    The a newly elected Tory leader could contest the election arguing any case on Brexit they saw fit, as could Jeremy Corbyn for Labour.

  18. imacca @ #1610 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 10:53 am

    OT, but has anyone been having trouble with Chrom browser of late. Me just gone back to Firefox as Chrome on my PC kept cashing and evena re-install wouldn’t fix it??

    Thats on my home PC which is an older i7 / Asus motherboard, Win7 32bit / 64bit dual boot. Salvaged parts from a work throwout. 🙂 5 year old i7 with 16GB of ram. Added a power supply and all good. Dont think its a hardware issue though?

    Chrome on Win 10 working fine.

    Latest Chrome is V70.0.3538.110.

    I’ll have a look at Win 7 Chrome and get back to you in a little while.

    Light rain in Newcastle ☔. Mosquitoes out in force.
    🦟🦟🦟🦟 For the benefit of the unenlightened — those are mosquitoes. 😵

  19. guytaur @ #1535 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 7:42 am

    If you have not seen this on our news channels do watch. A foretaste of next year’s politics in the US

    @reuters tweets

    Democratic leaders Schumer and Pelosi, speaking to reporters at the White House after their meeting with the president, said they had offered Trump two proposals to avoid a government shutdown https://reut.rs/2UAx4jJ https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1072606953019326464/video/1

    Weak Democrats.

    The only thing they should be offering Trump is a cell in Federal-pound-me-in-the-ass Prison. And a free opportunity to avoid that outcome, if he resigns right this second.

  20. RR – You’re being far too reasonable, I’m afraid. May is another one of those politicians who would rather let the whole world fry than stand down on a matter of principle. She’s a nut

  21. ar

    I think the Democrats there are doing the talking softly but going to use a big stick. The exact opposite of Trump.

    Only time will tell if I am right or wrong on that.

  23. SK

    I agree that a lot of the commentary on President Trump by media people who obviously dislike him has more than likely helped his cause. They would have been better of just concentrating on the facts, like the fact that increasing steel tariffs to save US steelworkers’ jobs has indirectly cost many more lost jobs in industries such as auto manufacturing that rely on this very same imported steel which has now become more expensive.

    I hope Amy Klobuchar, the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party Senator, runs for President because she has a more rational approach to taking on the current President’s misleading palaver. I believe she would reverse those narrow losses in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and win the election.

  24. Nath

    I am pleased I have been compared to someone who is publishing in Independent Australia by partisans.

    Rubbish opinion apparently. Just like those international tech sites like the Verge.

  25. Forcing the ALP to move their conference to the ‘everyone has switched off for Xmas/ summertime’ and even having it in sleepy summer Adelaide could not be more perfect for Labor.
    A bit of jousting, all wrapped up in an election focused consensus that drifts into holidays….
    The LNP own goals just keep coming this year.

  27. antonbruckner11

    A bit harsh on May. If she had pulled the pin earlier the poms may well have ended up with one of the two toff twats ,Bojo and Mogg. The LOLs from seeing one of those 2 in charge would however be worth the entry fee.

  28. Despite Guytaur’s often annoying argument style he is as worthwhile a poster as anyone else here. Enthusiasm for political issues, even if misplaced, is something I like to see.

  29. I hope Amy Klobuchar, the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party Senator, runs for President

    Amy! Amy! Amy!

    I have been wheeling that barrow ever since the Biden one rusted through.

  30. doyley, Torchbearer

    Yes – such a petulant act to hold those by-elections on the weekend that the Labor National Conference was due to be held. And anyone outside the “beltway” would see it as such. Just beautiful that it has helped Labor.

    Isn’t it funny to think back to the lead-up to that by-election weekend! The Australian was proclaiming that these by-elections would be the final nail in Bill Shorten’s coffin, that the Coalition would make history by winning a seat off the Opposition at a by-election, and that this would show that the Coalition was ‘back’ and ready to win a third term under Turnbull.

  33. Torchbearer

    I praise Labor for being open with its National Conference. Returning to a normal date will do the same.

    You can be sure that the attacks will come that Labor is trying to hide its debate. It won’t matter that the conferences of other parties are not open to the media in the same way.

    I think the more people see of the Labor agenda the more they will like it.
    Its noteworthy in my view when the right trots out the Labor is weak line I think voters buy it because they see Labor as following the LNP.

    Thats a reason I think the open debate by Labor is one of its strongest strengths. When party members vote for something after a vigorous open debate and win the day they are a good way to winning the argument in the electorate.

    The only caution is not to drink the kool aid and go too far left as the LNP have gone right. However I do think thats far less likely the more open the debate is than hiding away from scrutiny.
    The timing is good this year because the argument can be had without the media ampyifing the worst aspects of debate in a negative light.

    Its like France just learnt with the protests there. Macron had to back down on the legitimate points despite trying the whole its rioting thugs destroying politics thats been used against unions here.

    Note I don’t expect rioting at the ALP National Conference 🙂

  34. Oncologist on ABC radio atm talking about a scheme whereby cancer treatment is provided at local hospitals.

    Years ago, a health expert told me that the main reason cancer patients are required to travel for treatment is that it helps researchers to have all their records at the one place – it’s about building professional reputations rather than sound medicine. Most of the treatments for cancer patients can be delivered by a nurse and this means they can be delivered locally.

    The oncologist discussing this issue says there are huge cost savings in not requiring patients to travel . One of the benefits of this is that the patient can be accompanied by a team of supporters, rather than relying on just one person.

    Interesting to see the idea being put into practice.

  35. SK

    I actually saw a bit of Richo last night, and he was talking about the possibility of the Democratic Primaries going the way of the Republican ones last time. That is, someone with a solid 25% base slowly knocking off a whole lot of other candidates. It came to my mind that this could be the Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders if he joined the Democratic Party again in order to run for the Democratic nomination. Then the “Bernie Bros” may get him through all the early primaries. Not sure it would help the Democratic Party in the long run.

  36. antonbruckner11 says:
    Wednesday, December 12, 2018 at 10:48 am
    Peter Stanton – you can block anyone you dislike on this blog (except me)

    Thanks for that. I am not keen on blocking anyone. That sounds a bit too harsh. Gaytaur has a right to express his opinion. It is just a bit wearing when he does not let things go after a reasonable time. Most of the matters discussed here are not about right and wrong. They are about differing opinions. It is OK to try to win others over to your opinion, in fact it is the whole point of this type of discussion. However, there is a time when you have to accept that they are not going to concede and move on

  38. poroti:

    [‘…may well have ended up with one of the two toff twats ,Bojo and Mogg.’]

    That’s a bit hard on Jacob Rees-Mogg, an outstanding member of the British establishment. You only have to check his images to realise that his Tory incredential are of the highest order, with particular emphasis on the way he dons a top-hat.

  39. Rocket Rocket @ #1633 Wednesday, December 12th, 2018 – 7:23 am

    doyley, Torchbearer

    Yes – such a petulant act to hold those by-elections on the weekend that the Labor National Conference was due to be held. And anyone outside the “beltway” would see it as such. Just beautiful that it has helped Labor.

    Isn’t it funny to think back to the lead-up to that by-election weekend! The Australian was proclaiming that these by-elections would be the final nail in Bill Shorten’s coffin, that the Coalition would make history by winning a seat off the Opposition at a by-election, and that this would show that the Coalition was ‘back’ and ready to win a third term under Turnbull.

    The stupidity of it is, was it going to end up any other way?

    Did the Liberals really think that Labor would hold their conference during the campaign? 🙂

  42. Mavis Smith

    I have held the Moggster in the highest regard ever since I spotted him in the Monty Python skit “Upper Class Twit of the Year” .

  44. RR
    You may be right – although the progressive vote could split – many Bernie fans may slip to Beto (C@ts favourite).

    It will be interesting to see if anything comes of the discussions to remove superpacs from the Dem primaries?

    Is Richo still kicking?

  45. I wouldn’t block Guytar,
    he is open to ideas even if a Greens supporter. More importantly, he does not continue to mindlessly parrot the same line over and over again despite having it refuted by a number of people on this blog, not looking at you P1 and Nath.

  50. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, December 11, 2018 at 10:05 am

    All Australia has to do about Israel’s Australian Embassy is have it both ways. Just say that the embassies will be moved when the 2 State Solution is achieved. East Jerusalem for the Jews and West Jerusalem for the Palestinians. That way nothing can happen until a solution is nutted out, done and dusted.

    I mean, it’s obvious to Blind Freddy. Though Morrison seems afraid to utter the common sense response.

    Let’s eliminate this expression. It’s demeaning to people like my wife who is legally blind and hundreds of thousands of Australians who are blind or visually impaired. Not to mention my late father Fred and my son Fred.

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