The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.
Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.
UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.
lol
James Jeffrey
Verified account @James_Jeffrey
6m6 minutes ago
Scott Morrison calls for “eternal shame” for Labor. ETERNAL. #qt
@LiamPmfret tweets
The only former intelligence officer in Parliament voted against #aabill. That says a lot right there. This bill is a complete and utter shitshow. #auspol https://twitter.com/DRWaus/status/1070505918301753344
guytaur @ #1743 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 1:00 pm
It was shot down ages ago, by the fact that the encryption bill would need months, at a minimum, before any TCN’s would actually be completed. The whole mechanism through which the legislation works, where the government has to tell a private company to do something, and then the company either argues about it or starts poking holes in its product and then publishes the swiss-cheese version as an app update is a time consuming process involving both legal and development/QA pipelines. Nothing will happen quickly.
The idea that there’s any sort of urgent national-security concern that will be addressed by passing the encryption stuff is purely nonsense.
Senator Jordon Steele-John
Verified account @Jordonsteele
8m8 minutes ago
Hearing word that an hours motion for @AuSenate has been drafted meaning they will force us to sit until the anti #encryption #AAbill passes. This is #Auspol
[.@IntlCrimCourt are analysing evidence against Scott Morrison to determine if they can charge him with crimes against humanity over the mistreatment of refugees. If our bloody media told Australians this fact, that would utterly change the debate.]
Wow. Wonder what the source for this tweet is?
AR
You break the security of the privacy that encryption provides no matter what you call handing over the keys to a third party. End to End encryption is just that for a reason.
Labor will wear the political cost of endorsing the legislation by voting for it. As the LNP hopes for. Thus its in the LNP’s interest that Labor is seen as voting for the AA Bill.
Just like with AS its another wedge of Labor that would fail if Labor just stood up for human rights.
Great question by Wilkie. Funny isn’t it that the most poignant questions always come from the crossbench.
@YaThinkN tweets
If you don’t care about or understand the ramifications or consequences of the #aabill, fine, I get that, it is complicated.
But be aware, people who do understand and are fighting it are doing so for very good reasons, not partisan shite.
If that bothers you, unfollow me now.
retweeted by Jane Caro.
@coljac tweets
A reminder about the competence of lawmakers in the area of #aabill: “The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia.” – the actual PM. There’s no emoji for how that makes me feel.
BIO
Astro and Deep Learning PhD student Tech commentator Melbourne
guytaur @ #1756 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 1:17 pm
That’s not how TCN’s will work. But yes, I’m not saying the AA bill isn’t a disgraceful, shambolic clusterfuck that should never be passed. It’s all of those things, no question.
I’m just pointing out that it will take months (or longer) to actually kick in. Which makes the hysterics from some politicians about how this needs to be passed urgently in the name of national security that much more…hysterical and over the top.
AR
WhatsApp iMessage are end to end encryption. To stop that you have to hand keys over to a third party. Call it TCN if you like thats what you are doing.
Think keys as in house keys. You are handing the police and any criminal thats finds the keys the ability to search your house in case of police without a warrant.
I would point out that one of the examples given by Twomey is the Racing and Gambling Acts (Amendment) Bill 2005 passed by the Parliament of Victoria and presented to the Governor for assent, where the Government successfully advised the Governor to delay assent for 6 weeks.
SA keeps leading the nation. Of the 200 EDs in Australia, the top four worst performing are all in Adelaide, headed by the disastrous nRAH.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/rah-ed-ranked-worst-in-the-nation-followed-by-modbury-lyell-mcewin-flinders-medical-centre-and-qeh/news-story/b22c34c7966eb7369d3abcf072645987
Wow! Bring on Armageddon and the Rapture now!
Regarding the encryption bill I have am experiencing a deja vu with 2001 when Kim Beasley had to rush head long into support Howard over the Tampa. And went on to lose the election and to be still belted about by it to this day. I wonder just how many votes would the APL loose by not supporting it even if an attack occurred. That is as opposed to how many folks like me who will now definitely not vote LIB/ALP no matter the quality of the candidate.
Alan Shore,
Is there not some committee that you can apply to in order to have those cases reviewed? Especially if the doctors or dentists have been the subject of harsh and unfair punishment?
@PaulKarp tweets
Senate voting on the Phelps bill provisions was speeding up, but Cory Bernardi has now moved to suspend standing orders to move a second reading amendment. Really getting into the weeds here, desperate stuff. Still, govt losing EVERY VOTE #auspol #backthebill #KidsOffNauru
Terminator @ #1765 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 10:33 am
They will have choose one in the vast majority of cases.
It’s called Preferential voting. 🙂
That’s interesting. The Canberra Times and local ABC are claiming Canberra EDs are the worst performing in Australia.
I do understand people getting very angry, upset about the Bill. But there is SO much more going behind the scenes on this one.
Keep a v close eye on the Senate. That is the ballgame… the House Bill will be amended to death in the Senate and then the pressure will be on the House to pass what they wouldn’t agree to in the House. Note that the Greens in the Senate are part of the bloc advancing these amendments.
guytaur @ #1768 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 2:35 pm
It’s all about the arithmetic. 🙂
173 Amendments have been proposed. Watch that bouncing ball.
Why is the government only talking about refugees? Almost every question has been on this topic.
j3
Actually its the Greens moving the motion and Labor backing the Greens.
As you can see from QT in the Reps the LNP are desperate to say being humane and standing up for human rights is in fact voting for the green light to people smugglers.
They are using the same argument on the AA bill just substitute peadohiles and terrorists for people smugglers. Even if its only a delay.
Thats why I think Labor should have voted against it. They are getting the blame anyway voting against it would have kept some voters on side.
Cat, there are tribunals and councils and finally NCAT but in the meantime a professional’s life has been upended and career harmed. Even those who go back to work are still hounded because “metadata”.
guytaur @ #1762 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 1:29 pm
Negative. And beside the point. But anyways, if an app is doing end to end encryption then the developer of that app doesn’t have the encryption keys just sitting around somewhere where they can get them to hand over to law enforcement (or anyone else). The keys would be sitting on the client endpoints, and the developer would have to implement new code and deploy an updated app version if they wanted to get them.
Also there were many good examples provided yesterday about how TCN’s might actually be implemented. The developer handing over keys that they don’t currently possess was not one of them.
citizen
I think Canberra was worst for surgical waiting times.
I don’t think Amy is enjoying QT.
🙂
Many in the Government have croaky voices. Was there a big shindig last night?
Unions NSW had day one of its High Court hearing on the NSW laws restricting its involvement in the upcoming NSW election yesterday (finishing today).
http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCATrans//2018/255.html
Seems to be going reasonably well
ar
As soon as you decrypt you are handing the keys to your house over to a third party. Its a very very simple concept to understand as an analogy.
Ask why you have not agreed to hand over your house keys to the local police station?
Bevan Shields
Verified account @BevanShields
4m4 minutes ago
Liberal Party defector Cory Bernardi defector now helping stage a filibuster for the government in the Senate in an attempt to delay the refugee bill from getting to the House of Representatives #auspol
guytaur why are you arguing with someone who agrees with you on the substantial issue.
PeeBee @ #1779 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 10:45 am
Nah, just lots of phone calls and meetings reportedly! 🙂
caf
No AR is still trying to claim TCN is somehow agreement. Thats not understanding the technology of encryption.
Its either encrypted and thus private or its not.
Given it was only the Independent and the Green who were the 2 dissenting votes, what does that tell you?
In regards the election being to choose between the current Coalition (so Liberal and National) Government and the Labor Opposition, where the current Coalition government is in minority plus there is the impact of a redistribution, those 2 Parties are in unison (given negotiation)
So impact?
Will this legislation result in the Greens or a Wilkie Party (being those voting against it) winning enough seats to form government?
Simply, a non issue (also recognising the “trophy” on the pm’s office bench, so the politics the government play on what they perceive a positive for their re-election prospects)
So negated by Labor
The election will be won on a raft of matters, which I have commented on on these sites over time
Nothing has changed
Except the fiasco of selling State owned energy Companies (to who exactly) – and where I would suggest most yearn the pre privatisation days of the SEC, ETSA etc etc over the privatised operators who have been foisted on us under the pretence of competition being a benefit to consumers (except as Henry said the objective of Boards is to benefit Shareholders, so where do consumers sit?)
Henry, as is his way, has lobbed a grenade
And Borrison has stepped on it threatening the sale of a Queensland State asset – but to who exactly and for what consideration?
The other matter, as always, is a return on that consideration otherwise why invest
By extension the argument is that private Companies can make profit and distribute dividends to Shareholders but that the State can not compete on cost to consumers, make a profit and distribute back to the public good (hospitals, roads, education et al)
The threat introduced by this legislation does not stand up to scrutiny
And why no such commentary on private suppliers
Why only Queensland
Politics, hey?
Thanks for the clarification.
The media often forget that Canberra Hospital and the public section of Calvary Hospital serve not only the ACT but also a large area of SE NSW under arrangements with the NSW government.
guytaur: The point is that s/he agrees with you on the lack of merit in the legislation/policy itself so why create a disagreement about the details, I feel like I’m watching the John Cleese / Michael Palin Argument Sketch.
(As far as I can see, a r has better handle on the actual mechanics of the situation than you do, but like I said that doesn’t even matter here.)
And now an incoherent Pauline Hanson moves a stalling motion. This is s circus!
So, if I follow the Coalition’s ‘logic’, if this Medical Evacuation Bill is passed, Australia will be swamped with boatloads…of sick people?
And the dill now has five minutes to ramble on as only she knows how.
https://www.axios.com/australias-encryption-legislation-big-tech-criticism-law-enforcement-6487f6bf-8f58-4737-81fd-9a992abcf786.html
SSO
Reps QT
I know it will shock most of you, but Hansen is deranged! 🙂
@Guardianaus tweets
Which, @AmyRemeikis notes, means:
“If the government wants encryption to be passed, it has to keep sitting.
If it keeps sitting, then the medical evacuation bill can come up.
The government will lose that vote.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/dec/06/government-morrison-nauru-energy-encryption-politics-live-shorten-labor-liberal?page=with:block-5c089a4ae4b04b34b3e61ab7#block-5c089a4ae4b04b34b3e61ab7 #aabill #backthebill #auspol
I can’t see the article as it’s on the Australian and these quotes are linked by Bolt but this doesn’t look good;
1. Household savings rate lowest in a decade
2. Household spending lowest in six years
3. Projected growth 2.8% not 3.3%
4. Record low wage rises
5. Housing prices accelerating down
Unemployment levels are low but the economy looks moribund. The Australian is saying interest rates might move down into “emergency” levels.
Thanks as always BK. You are the best.
From this link on the Dawn Patrol:
______________________
https://theconversation.com/the-verdict-is-in-renewables-reduce-energy-prices-yes-even-in-south-australia-108251
(snip)
However, our research found by far the biggest reason for higher wholesale electricity prices in South Australia is higher gas prices. It does not help that so much of South Australia’s gas-fired electricity generation is remarkably inefficient.
(strange, I thought that P1 told us that gas fired generation was the ants pants!)
But this is the kicker:
Displacing expensive gas that is inefficiently used with cheaper sources of electricity can be expected to reduce wholesale prices. And so it does. In fact we found that in 2018, wind and solar generation in South Australia reduced prices by A$38 per megawatt-hour from what they otherwise would have been. Consumers were charged A$11 per MWh to subsidise this production, suggesting the subsidy paid for itself more than three times over.
_________________
Note that gas is a very expensive stop gap solution, and is a great polluter.
Being slightly better than coal is a very low bar to clear. Coal gives very high emissions vis-a-vis renewables, and gas is only marginally better than coal.
The Guardian blog
Lol.
Katharine Murphy
Verified account
@murpharoo
The House is now attempting a live social experiment: a suspension where no one is permitted to shout. Shout and you are out #qt