Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 9:11 am
    “But who is America’s John Howard??”

    George W Bush?
    —————————————

    A match made in heaven! 😉

  2. Vic:

    One person apparently not being truthful is Manafort!

    Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III has voided his cooperation agreement with former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, accusing Manafort of violating it by lying.

    The episode appears to be a setback for Mueller’s efforts to glean information from a key player in the Russia investigation. But it may double as an opportunity for disclosure — even a chance for Mueller to enter key events into the public record. That’s especially the case if he’s worried about what new acting attorney general Matthew G. Whitaker might do to the investigation and if the whole thing is indeed winding down. The episode could give us one of the best senses to date of exactly what Mueller is probing and how much trouble President Trump and his campaign might be in.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/27/could-robert-mueller-be-about-tell-us-something-big/?utm_term=.d312d7e32b23

  4. The thing with this pack of imbeciles is to always assume they are going to fuck up deluxe.

    And then enjoy the pleasant surprise of finding out just how far you’ve underestimated their ability to fuck up.

  5. ”
    PeeBee says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 8:55 am
    Did I just hear Cormann correctly? ‘This has always been a minority government.’ (WTTE)
    ”
    I think he said
    This Morrison government has always been a minority government

  6. Guys could the antipathy of Libs towards Banks is because
    1 Banks is a female
    2. Her first name is Julia
    3. Like Gillard, She was lawyer before entering politics, hence smart and intelligent.
    🙂

  7. Showing my age but i have actually no idea what a “beltway” is nor what it means. Nor for that matter what is a “ground hog day”. Like hallowe’en?

    No need to inform me. Happy to pollute my mind less. 🙂

  9. I couldn’t find the 2pp figures for WA but the seat allocations indicate that since Hawke, the ALP may have won the 2pp vote once, or perhaps none. For thirty years Western Australia has been solidly behind the Libs. Even Rudd in 2007 couldn’t get even half the seats!
    SEATS LNP ALP
    2016 11 to 5
    2013 12 to 3
    2010 12 to 3
    2007 11 to 4
    2004 10 to 5
    2001 8 to 7
    1998 7 to 7
    1996 8 to 3
    1993 8 to 6

  13. Speaking of Americanisms, what about ‘Father of the House’? A descriptor that generally has me reaching for a bucket. It’s generally used to humanise persons who are otherwise inhuman. Eg Ruddock

  15. ”
    lizzie says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 7:26 am
    Josh Burns
    ‏@josh4macnamara

    We should all take a moment to acknowledge that the Liberal MPs were willing to listen to Fraser Anning’s maiden speech but not @drkerrynphelps.

    Apparently the final solution reference is more palatable to them than action on climate change.
    ”
    Lizzie
    To be fair to Libs, they did not listen to Julia Banks speech where she mentioned her reasons for quitting Libs.
    Also, what a coincidence that both were women

  16. As I have said before, Labor should just sit back and let the Libs run around like fluffy ducks wrt s44. Empty threats about whom they’d refer to the HC make them a laughing stock. Don’t they realise they don’t have the numbers to act unilaterally?
    BTW, bulk billing GP’s are NOT contracted to the Govt. The patient assigns HIS/HER rebates to the Dr. The practitioner is an agent for the Patient.

  17. ”
    nath says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 9:27 am
    Even Rudd in 2007 couldn’t get even half the seats!
    ”
    1998 7 to 7. They are not redneck. they are parochial

  18. Fess

    Manafort has been lying to Mueller.
    And he has been caught in his lies. Something Manafort would have expected.
    Begs the question.
    Is Manafort afraid to tell the truth because he reckons he will get whacked?
    Or is something else going on as posited by some on twitter

  20. Good Morning

    On the Massachusetts thing. Howard probably hates this line from a man from that state.

    Think not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for the country

  21. WA is bigger than Texas

    Western Australia is unique in not only the area it covers, but also in the spread of our population over the entire state. Western Australia covers more than 2.6 million square kilometres (10,021,748 square miles) – the combined size of Alaska and Texas – with a population of 2.6 million people.

  23. ”
    Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 9:27 am
    Under representation of women in the Liberal party Room has suddenly become the biggest political issue in Australia and the Liberals have no way to address or fix it in the short term.
    ”
    Cormann on ABC breakfast mentioned how many good women they have pre-selected for 2019 election. He mentioned a Woman’s name in Chisholm, a marginal seat.

  24. Christopher Pyne on s44 referrals reckons it is wrong to “throw stones”, but then says the Coalition will do just that if on of theirs (Dutton) gets referred. He has further exposed the Coalition’s attitude towards right and wrong: rules are there for their own protection, but are to be set aside to satisfy their own lust for revenge. He reminds me of someone I know who bragged to me that he pointed out his neighbour’s awning was not approved by council, but then said to him: “I won’t dob you in, but you better remember I know about this and haven’t dobbed you in – yet.”

    They prove with everything they utter that they are immoral bullies, who see rules primarily as instruments of threat anyway intimidation, to be wielded like weapons.

    The sooner we flush these turds away into electoral obscurity, the better.

  25. BK

    Maybe you need to talk to Facebook to get an algorithm so you only have to do ten minutes of curation instead of two hours work 🙂

    Thanks very very much appreciated.

  27. I know all about Western Australia. I spent several months there in the 90s. A more hellish depraved locality I have yet to witness. It rained once in three months. The precipitation evaporated in minutes.

  29. GG:

    Thanks for the Patricia Karvelas article. She makes a very salient point: Julia Banks in joining the x-benchers is sitting among women MPs who all represent seats which once were Liberal party heartland: Wentworth, Indi and Mayo. And now Chisholm.

    If that doesn’t speak volumes to the loons for the problems the Liberals have with women nothing will.

  34. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 9:40 am
    ——————————-

    Broadly agree, but Chisholm is hardly Liberal party heartland. Anna Burke (Labor) won it in 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010 & 2013. I actually think if Banks retaints it as an Independent in 2019 she takes a seat off Labor, not the Coalition.

  35. I suspect Jane Prentice will join the bevy of cross benchers. She has nothing to lose and may try to win as an independent. i guess there are fiendship networks she would lose but who knows.

  36. On Assange

    Manaforte visiting would make sense of Assange being the genius type with no common sense and thus ripe for recruiting as an intelligence asset.

    The whole reason Wikileaks fell apart in the first place. No precautions in place for intelligence operatives trying to manipulate.
    You don’t need to be a conspiracy theorist to see Assange being ego centric. Manipulated and moving from brave truth teller to intelligence asset.

    That timeline includes American and Russian intelligence after the first leaks.

  37. After a quiet night in the sheds, the Liberals are out and about again today.

    101. Henderson Denies Ever Having Seen Any Bullying in the Liberals Cockup.
    102. Henderson is Silent on Backing Cruelty to Animals for her Promotion Cockup.
    103. O’Sullivan Does Sexist Pig Cockup.
    104. Hiding KPMG Report Cockup.
    105. Payne Wants to Send MacDonald to Siberia Cockup.
    106. Pyne Gets Stuck into JBanks Cockup.
    107. Coalition Refuses to Extend Domestic Violence Funding Cockup.
    108. Four South Australian Liberal MPs Cross the Floor Cockup.
    109. ‘Perfumed Mafia’ Liberals Who Hate Women Meme Cockup.
    110. After Claiming Bragging Rights on Meeting Trump at the G20, Morrison is Snubbed Cockup.
    111. Frydenberg G20 No Show Cockup.
    112. Pyne’s What Women Problem? Cockup.

  41. Michael A:

    True, but Chisholm has only had 2 non-Liberal MPs in its 70 year history. You could forgive the party for considering it part of their heartland.

    And as we were discussing last night, I do not think Banks will run as an independent in Chisholm simply because the seat is very likely to be won by Labor next year.

  43. Well the northern part of Chisholm is pretty much Liberal heartland. Of course in Chisholm it’s always a battle between the north and south of the electorate. making it always fairly marginal.

  44. Boerwar (AnonBlock)
    Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:47 am
    Comment #1786

    103. O’Sullivan Does Sexist Pig Cockup.

    O’Sullivan behaving like O’Sullivan.

    I’m not sure you can describe that as a Cockup! 🙂

  45. ‘They have to go to prison and sit there awhile’: Ex-FBI agent explains what’s needed for the Trump ‘conmen’ to flip

    The former Assistant Director for Counterintelligence at the Federal Bureau of Investigation explained how special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation is now focused on three key “conmen.”

    Figliuzzi explained the “three puzzle pieces” of the collusion investigation as the Trump campaign, Wikileaks and the Russian government.

    “Who knew what when? You put those together, and you’ve got a criminal conspiracy that violates numerous laws,” he noted.

    He singled out three individuals as being key to the next phase of the investigation. Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, longtime Trump confidante Roger Stone and his associate, conspiracy theorist Jerome Corsi.

    “When you’re dealing with longtime corrupt people — who are conmen still trying to effect the last con, now on the prosecutor team — they have to go to prison and sit there for a while before they realize they’ve got to cooperate,” he noted.

    “I think that’s what’s going to happen here,” Figliuzzi concluded.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/go-prison-sit-awhile-ex-fbi-agent-explains-whats-needed-trump-conmen-flip/

  47. Confessions, thanks for catching me up with that discussion from last night, which I hadn’t the opportunity to do yet. That was the one fly in the ointment that I could see in what was otherwise a master stroke from Banks. That’s put my mind at ease now – thank you!

  48. Amy

    Barry O’Sullivan, Fraser Anning and David Leyonjhelm walked out as Richard Di Natale was talking.

    They don’t even want to hear criticism of their rude behaviour. Such superior males!!
    These are the attitudes that encourage domestic violence, IMO.

  50. Rossmcg @ #1767 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 8:34 am

    Western Australia covers more than 2.6 million square kilometres (10,021,748 square miles)

    10 million square miles is significantly more than 2.6 million square kilometres. By a factor of approximately 10. One number or the other has been misstated.

    In either case, seems a good opportunity to divide the area of the state by its population and give every resident a randomly-allocated equal-sized plot of land. Everyone get s a minimum of one square kilometer to do whatever they feel like with.

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