Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  3. I think South Australia is unclassifiable. There really is nothing else like it. Oh you could make comparisons on climate etc, but how can you find a truly miserable counterpart? A place where every 5th person is a serial killer?

  5. Back on JWH and the American neo-colonial cultural cringe of our political Right, I might start a list of Americanisms that get used by RWCW commenters, but which thankfully we avoid here in dinky-di PB land. First up: I have never seen the phrase “inside the beltway” on this blog, except ironically or in quoting someone.

  8. I collected all the “problems that Libs have and what they think about it” articles, read one or two, and then felt as if I’d eaten too much. Not worth it.

    But gratitude to BK for wading through it all for us. 🙂

  10. Fluffy Poodle in blind panic about Dutton HC referral.

    The penny hasn’t dropped that threatening Labor with tit for tat by doing exactly what Labor has wanted isn’t a sign of strength.

    It won’t worry Phelps one bit as she will face voters within months in any event… so no loss to her.

    All it shows is how weak the LNP is… bring it on .

  12. I think South Australia is unclassifiable. There really is nothing else like it. Oh you could make comparisons on climate etc, but how can you find a truly miserable counterpart? A place where every 5th person is a serial killer?
    ____
    Quite frankly, YOU have become unclassifiable!

  14. That AFR srticle is inferring that Morrison may not go to the G20. If that is the case then something big is brewing in the Government again.

    “Mr Morrison will still attend the meeting, but is now not expected to have a formal meeting with US President Donald Trump after being left off a list of bilateral sit downs announced by the White House.

    The government is considering whether Finance Minister Mathias Cormann should attend the meeting instead.”

  15. Calling Canberra and Parliament, ‘the beltway’ is another one of those Americanism that gets used that I can’t stand. Usually by political journalists who wish they were flash enough to make it in the US.

  16. Boerwar @ #1707 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 8:45 am

    Coal-fired Morrison gets yet another knock. China is freezing (sic) coal imports:

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/robert-gottliebsen/is-china-teaching-australia-a-lesson-on-politics-and-trade/news-story/5c7e371556afd06e4953a667d277e406

    I can’t read that article, but here’s one on a similar topic that came out a week or so ago …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2018-11-16/coal-price-drops-one-third-as-china-shuts-door-on-imports/10504276

    It is not the good news it seems to be:

    “China has produced so much coal for the winter period the power companies have 30 days worth of consumption on their stockpiles,” he said.

    The freeze is only until they need more coal next year.

  17. Morning all

    Appreciate your mighty efforts BK!

    Also to Phoenix for the latest disclosures re Assange and Manafort meetings. The puzzle pieces are slowly coming together

  23. Wow the media appears to have universally turned on the Liberal party! Even the Oz is unimpressed.

    Thanks BK for today’s huge effort.

  25. GG: The reason that Morrison has been left off the US meeting list for the G20 is that they probably can read polls too (and tea leaves) and assume it would be a waste of time. I expect them to send a high level official to Canberra to have a quiet chat with the ALP instead. (Over a coffee, not a lobster)

  29. Sceptic
    Poodle’s threats are meaningless, in his haste to be relevant to the debate, he forgot one important thing.
    The Coalition no longer command a majority on the floor.
    They cannot refer anyone, the shoe is on the other foot now.

  31. nath says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 8:23 am
    I’d say Perth/WA is like Texas

    Then you’d be completely mistaken. In 2017 WA elected a Labor Government with the largest pro-Labor majority in more than 100 years, far out-pacing the win by Victorian Labor on Saturday. As far as G-leaning expression is concerned, WA elected anti-war campaigner Jo Valentine well in advance of any Victorian G. We had a few rough years following the disastrous efforts of Rudd, who caused Labor great reputational damage. But this is in the past. We have a progressive government with a large agenda, and a very strong Labor movement. It is quite typical of up-themselves wankers from NSW and Victoria to make themselves feel better by dissing other States. They can all GAGF as far as we’re concerned.

  32. GG
    Sheridan, for one, has been declaiming a huge triumph for Morrison in the Pacific and East Asia.
    IMO, Morrison went out of his way to rub China’s nose in it on behalf of Trump.
    The pat-on-the-head reward was to be a bilateral with Trump at the G20.
    The actual punishment is that the day after APEC finished the Chinese announced that there would be an ‘investigation’ into barley dumping by Australia. Australia is the world’s fourth largest barley exporter and its biggest customer is China.
    And now the Chinese are freezing coal imports.
    One of the Cockup Century is a line in which Morrison expects China v the US to be over soon.
    Shorter story: Morrison is in over his head and the NeoCons are leading him, and Australia, around by the nose.

  35. I remember the look of the faces of Adelaideans when Melbourne stole the Grand Prix. It was like that look on a baby when you take away their dummy. Too shocked to cry! It was a great day for Melbourne, a great day for Victoria! We stuck it right up em!

  37. Vic:

    Interestingly Wikileaks have firmly denied the meeting with Assange and Manafort. And I mean firmly. And the difficulty is proving a direct link between Trump and the Russians and campaign collusion.

    So let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that the Guardian report is correct. It’s not clear that, in March 2016, Assange had any awareness of Russia’s alleged efforts to hack the DNC or Clinton campaign staffers. It seems clear, based on Mueller’s indictment, that the DNC information wasn’t in WikiLeaks’s possession until July and that the outreach from WikiLeaks in late June may have been the first contact between WikiLeaks and the Russian team.

    Establishing a relationship between the two would be significant. But assuming that Manafort and Assange *did* meet, the publicly visible line between Trump’s campaign and Russian actors is still indirect.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/27/timeline-what-it-would-mean-if-manafort-assange-met/?utm_term=.a1f868130d7a

  41. Amy crunches the numbers.

    Of the government’s 74 lower house MPs, 12 are women.

    Of that 12, Jane Prentice and Ann Sudmalis lost preselection – Prentice, formally, and Sudmalis, who quit before she was pushed, having lost control of the branch.

    Of the 10 who remain, four – Nicolle Flint, Lucy Wicks, Michelle Landry and Sarah Henderson – have a margin under 3%

    In the preselections, (some of which are still to be completed) women have been chosen in just two winnable seats – Macnamara and Chisholm.

    From that, the Liberal party is looking at retaining six women MPs at the next election. If some miracle occurs and the government holds every single seat they currently hold, the number of women they currently claim still drops by two.

    According to her the last time the women stocks in the Liberal party were so low Paul Keating was PM!

  46. @TheKouk

    Internal Liberal Party matters are currently more important to Mr Frydenberg than looking after Australia’s interests on the international stage at there G20, when the trade wars are simmering that threaten to undermine our export markets. Says a lot about the current government

  47. Good morning all,

    No one from the government is traveling OS at the moment by the looks of it. Pyne is hysterical on as many media outlets as he can get. The day to day business of government, both here and internationally is shot. All because they are shit scared of the numbers on the floor. Business as usual.

    It would be interesting if labor decides not to go ahead with the referral of Dutton ?

    Cheers

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