Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 16 of 27
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  1. Business Opportunity.

    Under development for sale via my Emporium – the following requested item.

    Telescopic Sight – Multi Power – Infra Red – Ultra Violet and packaged in a variety of colours to suit the fashion conscious.

    This superior technology device will be retrograde fitted to the implements used by the meritocracy to shoot themselves in the foot. Small adjustment in aim occasionally render the shooter incapable of repeat shots – obviously not a desirable attribute.

    Be early – buy now – be the first in the crowd with a missing big or little toe – (selectable). Bragging rights assured.

  2. This is what gives me hope for 2020 that the Democrats will win back the presidency

    Don’t get your hopes up too high:

    Last week’s midterms look like a strong Democratic victory. Democrats have gained seven governorships, a minimum of 32 House seats (and more likely closer to 40), and hundreds of state legislative seats. To all appearances, they look to have swept the nation and put Donald Trump and the Republicans on the ropes.

    But that’s assuming there was a nation to sweep. In fact, a close look at the returns show that the US is really two very separate nations, with two very different election verdicts to be read. On that view, the election actually contains very positive news for Trump’s re-election hopes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/12/what-did-the-midterms-reveal-a-divided-america

    It’s a sobering analysis. With statistical digging to come up with it’s conclusions.

  3. @bree
    Thanks for your prediction. Care to back it up with identifying the seats the Coalition will hold and the Labor seats it will take in this forthcoming Coalition victory?

  4. Yep.

    Steve SchmidtVerified account@SteveSchmidtSES
    Nov 11
    The abuse of the US Military and US soldiers for Trumps’ desperate race baiting incitement campaign is an outrage. Every news organization should have cameras and reporters at the border covering this farce. This abuse should be the subject of hearings in the House .

  6. Cat

    Commentators are forgetting the odds.

    The Democrats have recreated the Blue Wall.

    If Clinton had those suburbs she would have won.

    Throw in Automatic voter registration in states like Nevada and Florida restoring voting rights to over a million ex felon voters the voter suppression effort has reached its peak and is now being reversed slightly.

    Edit: That is the odds favour the democrats. Winning the popular vote tends to do that and Trump’s 2016 path to the Presidency was low turnout by Democrats.

  7. Thanks C@t. That Guardian article is just another variation of the city mouse-country mouse theme Bill Maher has been talking about for years.

    But the Weekly Standard article specifically mentions Republican suburban, educated voters. Others have also talked about how Trump repels white educated women voters which we’ve seen in the midterms. This is very different from looking at the blue collar rural enclaves which are strongly pro-Trump. Those people are outnumbered.

  8. @ bree
    Sorry. Left out “all”. You mentioned a couple, but just those don’t make an election victory. For instance , does your prediction assume your team will not lose any seats at all?

  10. Meanwhile good signs continue up Korea way. All we have to do is make sure US “diplomacy” is kept well away.
    .
    ,
    Koreas Disarm Front-Line 22 Guard Posts, Destroy 20
    Both agree to keep one empty post on either side

    Jason Ditz Posted on November 11,
    Continuing a long-standing effort to reduce military presences along the demilitarized zone, North and South Korea spent the weekend taking apart a series of guard posts, with 22 posts along the front-lines being totally disarmed, removing all troops and equipment.
    https://news.antiwar.com/2018/11/11/koreas-disarm-front-line-22-guard-posts-destroy-20/

  11. A few days ago most people would have have had little idea what Foodbank was or what it did.

    Now thanks to some really dumb policy decisions an awful lot of people know just how little the Tories care for people who find themselves in tough circumstances.

    The IPA operatives in charge of the coalition have never seen a government service to the needy that can’t be outsourced and then have its funding cut.

    It’s in their DNA.

  13. Vic:

    We went with another couple and we all really enjoyed the movie. I was in heaven having Queen songs with the pumped up volume all around me 😀

  14. Nate Silver writes

    With Democrats having won the House but not the Senate on Tuesday — and with President Trump still in the White House — we’re headed for two years of divided government. That doesn’t mean there won’t be news, like … oh, say, the president firing the attorney general the day after the election.

    But it does mean that pretty much every political battle is going to be pitched with an eye toward 2020. And 2020 will be a unique year in that the House, Senate and presidency are all potentially in play.1 How the presidency goes is anybody’s guess. But Trump took advantage of the Electoral College last time around, winning the tipping-point state (Wisconsin) by about 1 percentage point even though he lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points. If Trump has the same edge in 2020, that could go a long way toward winning him a second term.

    The thing is, though, that the Electoral College advantage is historically pretty ephemeral. Relatively subtle changes in political conditions can make the Electoral College go from helping you to hurting you. In 2008 and 2012, for example, the Electoral College worked toward Democrats’ benefit, as Barack Obama would likely have won it in the event of a popular vote tie.

    So here’s some slightly scary news for Trump: The 2018 map looked more like 2012 than 2016, with Democrats performing quite well in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the three states that essentially won Trump the election two years ago.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-map-looked-a-lot-like-2012-and-that-got-me-thinking-about-2020/

  15. A few days ago most people would have have had little idea what Foodbank was or what it did.

    Every year for the last 4 years our office does an annual donations drive for Foodbank where staff are encouraged to donate non-fresh food and household items. Every year our drive gets bigger and bigger. I can’t remember what tonnage we donated this year, but the Foodbank manager said it was slightly larger than last year’s.

  18. Margo Kingston
    ‏
    I found both Justin Milne and Michelle Guthrie deeply unimpressive & the corporate-speak and ‘360’ BS appalling. Surely the ABC can do way better in finding an MD and the Govt a Chair who just get on with it. Obvious the Board should depart. #4Corners

  20. ”
    Rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 9:22 am
    A few days ago most people would have have had little idea what Foodbank was or what it did.
    ”
    I never heard of Foodbank till funds were cut for it by LNP & its CEO is interviewed on ABC. Now CoalMo reverses the funding cut & IMO he did it only because of the trouble LNP is in right now.

  21. poroti,
    Justin Trudeau said that his government heard Khashoggi murder tape. What does that signify if anything? As of now no sanctions have been imposed on the murderous regime of SA, where as sanctioned are reimposed on Iran by USA for complying with Nuclear Accord.

  22. Democrats understand that a significant message from voters last week was for them to provide a check on the Trump White House. Over the past week, incoming committee chairs have said they are planning to utilize their newfound power to this end but will do so strategically. Soon-to-be House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Elijah E. Cummings (D-Md.) said Sunday on ABC’s This Week, “I’m not going to be handing out subpoenas like somebody’s handing out candy on Halloween.”

    Candy or not, there is a lot to chew on. Here is a list, and it is nowhere near exhaustive, of the areas the Democrats plan to investigate and hold hearings on when they take over in January.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/12/readers-guide-trump-administration-targets-house-democrats-are-preparing-investigate/?utm_term=.7ee05a3b0326

    The list includes:

    – Russian interference
    – Matthew Whitaker
    – Trump’s tax returns
    – Trump’s payment of hush money to women he had affairs with
    – Emoluments clause breaches (YES!)
    – How Kushner came to be in the WH without high level security clearances
    – Trump’s targeting of the media
    – Kavanaugh
    – Migrant family separations

    And others. That’s quite a list.

  25. Stan Lee leaves a political message in his pop culture.


    Lee himself resurfaced the column in 2017, after white supremacists marched on Charlottesville, resulting in the death of one woman.

    In a no-longer-available tweet, he shared the image with the words “As true today as it was in 1968. Pax et Justitia -Stan.” 1968, notably, was the year Martin Luther King, Jr. was assassinated, among other events.
    “Pax et Justitia” is Latin for “peace and justice,” an ideology pervasive in Lee’s comics and in multiple Soapbox columns.

    Following the Charlottesville tweet, Inverse dug through the archives and found several more examples of Lee fighting prejudice over the decades. He defended Luke Cage’s debut and pointed out the allegories of bigotry in X-Men, all as part of the heroic stories readers were hungry to consume.

    https://mashable.com/article/stan-lee-soapbox-column-racism-1968/?utm_cid=mash-com-Tw-main-link&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true#naNa5iM3Daqq

    Vale

  26. Frydenberg’s column should be about his concern that so many people are minimising tax and making a Costello-provided capital gains killing on negative gearing while feeding an unsustainable housing bubble that diverts savings from productive investment to speculation. This results in an inevitable market crash resulting in lost savings and economic downturn.

    I know people on very solid incomes who get income tax returns because they own multiple negatively geared properties and who will be very wealthy in their retirement due to undertaxed >300% capital gains on their investments. This is just wrong. It is pricing housing out of the reach of even above-average income earners and enriching the well off at the cost of lower-income people who have virtually no hope of buying property and so getting a toehold in the property market and so have an asset they can draw on in retirement.

    The wheels on this ponzi scheme are wobbling and I fear they’ll come off under a labor government. After 30 years of economic growth, largely driven by unsustainable appreciation of housing values, people have forgotten what a real downturn looks like. Swan, Rudd and China saved us from the worst of the GFC, but we can’t rely on that.

    I hope labor can sell the case for winding back negative gearing. They also need to look at inheritance taxes for non-farming properties.

  28. Who is Michael Sukkar?

    Perhaps, just perhaps, we could start this cleansing by sending Sukkar back to where he came from

    I am sure such a move would have cross party support and the support of the majority of electors in Deakin

    And to thing that under Dutton, Sukkar was to be treasurer and Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party

    Except he could not count – and some of those he bullied with pre selection (along with Kroger and Bastiaan) did the opposite to what Sukkar had factored in

    Now on the back bench and seeking alternative employment opportunities

    So perhaps he will be better off back in Lebanon because he may find better employment opportunities there

  30. Victoria

    We may not have long to wait 🙂

    @SethAbramson tweets

    All these people wondering why Trump is so angry, unhinged, and despondent, and virtually none of them noting that the throughline of Mueller’s collusion investigation strongly suggests the first indictments of Trump associates for collusive crimes are coming and relatively soon.

  32. The stories about Centrelink got me thinking that when (not if) Labor get back into government they have years worth of ready-made Royal Commission material. Abbott weaponised the RCs. Shorten should finish the fight

    Not to mention that a RC into NBNco would be immensely satisfying 🙂

  36. Judging by Milne’s and Guthrie’s performance last night, the public has not been well served by them, both Tory appointments, Milne a friend of Turnbull. And when one thinks of their respective predecessors, they appear very ordinary at best.

    Milne wasn’t candid, his body language pointing to him lying. Guthrie’s inarticulate, and unpersuasive. Former staff board member Matt Peacock is right in calling for a depoliticisation
    of the Board, the MD, other senior positions.

    Further, a Senate inquiry should be conducted to ascertain the depth of interference by both
    Turnbull and Fifield.

  37. Reading that Canberra Times article re. Centrelink snafus made my blood boil.

    Everything listed in it has happened to Her Indoors. Most people are neither as articulate nor as stubborn as she. Many would give up.

    Dealing with Centrelink is like going 15 rounds with a large beanbag full of sticky marshmallows.

    No-one seems to be able to communicate clearly, to make a decision, to explain one or to stick with it, once made.

    Reasons for rejection of claims are confined to a limited number of pat explanations. For example, failure to supply a bank statement is not stated as such. Rather, you are told “You did not answer letters we sent to you”.

    This triggers of a couple of rounds of personal visits – a 75 kilometre round trip each time, taking 90 minutes return, plus at least 90 minutes wait when you get there – only to find that the best guess at what this message means is that the “letter” referred to is actually the instructions on the MyGov web site to provide all relevant bank statements. This is not a “letter” at all, but it’s the nearest thing to the real reason in a limited set of options provided to the anonymous call centre operator.

    You ask why they couldn’t just write (or send an email) saying, “Hey mate, I think you forgot one of your bank statements.” The answer to this is, “We don’t do that.” When you ask “Why not?”, the answer is “We just don’t.”

    The system appears to be purposely designed to wait until the very last moment (in HI’s case, a full 3 months without any communication at all, indeed up to the last day of the 13-week “documents” deadline), then to give “customers” as little information as possible, and if possible to mislead them with the pittance that IS provided. Then there is the mad scramble to get into the “local” office before close-of-business.

    All of the above was over a bank statement for an account that had had $20 as its unchanged balance for the past 20 years, and which had been listed as such. The “statement” that had allegedly not been supplied was rejected because it was not signed by a bank officer, while the others supplied had been. This was a quirk of the bank’s internet statement download page. The person assessing the claim noted the (irrelevant) anomaly on Day #1 of the application, flagged it as a query, and then took 3 months to advise us of it, disguising the actual reason with Centrelink gobbledygook about “unanswered ketters”.

    This HAS to be deliberate policy to confuse and dispirit.

  38. In case it’s not been noted on PB previously, the strongly progressive Democratic Senator from Ohio, Sherrod Brown is considering throwing his beret into 2020 Presidential race.

    Brown, who would be 68 years old at his 2021 Inauguration Day ceremony, was first elected in 2006 and last week won by six percent in this marginal state where the other Senator since the 2010 election has been Republican Rob Portman.

    I had hoped in vain that Hillary Clinton would pick Brown as her Veep running mate instead of the more moderate and, ruefully, ineffectual campaigner Tim Kaine.

  39. BB

    So much for Labor to fix. I think Labor should scrap the super ministries and take things back so ministers can resign for faults like they used to.

    In the case of social security thats a return to the CES model for job seeking and Social Security just do payments. What rightly got your blood boiling is the whole “lazy bludger” mentality of the neo liberal view of the LNP.

    Of course as you know I think a UBI would be better but until we bite that bullet I want a return to treating people as human and compassion built into the system and not the assumption that all recipients are bludgers.

  41. ”
    guytaur says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 10:00 am
    Fess

    Its worth quoting Mr Lee to Scott Morrison on his blaming a whole religion for the actions of one person.
    ”
    Guytaur, We don’t do it when the religion is not Islam. I wonder why?

  42. The very great majority of Australians have property investment to put a roof over their heads

    The very great majority of Australians do not “own” an investment property or properties for tax related purposes

    Firstly you have to have a tax liability on your prime source of income which liability can be reduced by transferring losses on an investment property portfolio

    The operative description being losses on an investment property portfolio

    Those losses need to be financed – because the tax relief only comes when you submit a tax return

    So interest on borrowings, Land Tax obligations, water supply, Insurance and repairs and maintenance need to be met as and when due – from the taxable income you seek to reduce the tax liability on

    These expenses are all additional to normal cost of living expenses

    So you have to be able to afford to negatively gear

    Then there is the security the lender requires

    By extension, given the tax consideration, the debt on the investment property is maximised and at 100% (along with interest only lending) so a collateral security with equity is provided (the principal place of residence)

    These are some of the factors in regard negatively geared investors

    So who qualifies?

    Because the tax advantage of Negative Gearing is a factor of debt – and therefore a lender

    More to the point to me is the impact of banks requiring principal plus interest repayments for residential property lending changing the servicing equation AND any significant declines in property values breaching the (overall) Loan to Valuation Ratio, the lending therefore in breach of Terms and Conditions

    Was it prudent for banks to lend full on an interest only basis against residential investment – and to rely on collateral security?

    No, it was not

    Such lending practices introduced elevated risk in a risk industry, which banking is

    There is loss of tenancy (including because the property is unable to be maintained to the market) and any loss of principal employment as added risk

    And reducing rents (noting our uneducated treasurer presents that house prices will collapse and rents will soar!!!!)

    The banks may have acted imprudently in their “grow the book regardless” bubble, which dates from 2000 by RBA data – but they did not act stupidly by lending where there was no servicing abiiity and no second way out (realising on security)

    So forget the headlines

    Look at the analysis

    There has been an impact due to tax legislation and bank practices

    But it is only at the margins because the majority purchasers are home buyers and those with the financial whereall to invest in property (so those investors who do not avail of Negative Gearing – but do get the advantage of the Capital Gains Tax dispensation)

    Investment is about diversity, compounding (therefore time) and not having debt

    Diversity includes investment in property, which is a major asset class along with equities and cash (the latter 2 including offshore investments)

    It is my view that it is the Greens demographic which looks to misrepresent the foregoing

  43. Notorious birther Jerome Corsi expects to be indicted by Robert Mueller: report

    Obama “birther” activist Jerome Corsi may have been caught up in a “perjury trap” by special counsel Robert Mueller — and expects to be indicted.

    NBC’s Ken Dilanian tweeted Monday evening that Corsi had spoken with Mueller’s investigators a week prior and that they told him he will be indicted for perjury.

    “They’re very good at the perjury trap,” Corsi said, adding that the special counsel’s investigators have his emails and phone records.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/notorious-birther-jerome-corsi-expects-indicted-robert-mueller-report/

  44. George Megalogenis
    ‏
    2h2 hours ago
    George Megalogenis Retweeted Susan Carland
    From Foodbank to universities, the coalition has returned its 2014 budget mindset, with spending cuts aimed at constituencies perceived to be pro-Labor.

  45. “They’re very good at the perjury trap,” Corsi said

    Oh. Oh! I nearly fell off my chair laughing at that one. People are looking at me.

    These guys are compulsive lairs. ‘Trap’ just involves asking questions.

  46. ‘President Bone Spurs’: Here are 7 times Donald Trump proved he’s no friend to the US military

    1. Trump Couldn’t Be Bothered to Honor the Americans Who Died at the Battle of Belleau Wood
    2. Trump Avoided Fighting in the Vietnam War with a Series of Educational and Medical Deferments
    3. Trump Equated Dating and Avoiding STDs with Fighting in the Vietnam War
    4. Trump Mocked and Belittled Sen. John McCain’s Military Service
    5. Trump Got Into a Feud with the Father of a Fallen Iraq War Solider
    6. Trump Opposes Counting Military Votes in Florida Gubernatorial and Senate Races
    7. Trump Sent U.S. Troops to the Border as a Political Stunt

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/president-bone-spurs-7-times-donald-trump-proved-hes-no-friend-us-military/

  47. While the unemployment is lowest for 10 years and especially for Latinos and black citizens, I’m not sure the Democrats have much moral authority in trying to impeach Trump.

    And while I think it’s true that educated white women don’t favour Trump, as they are empowered due to education and upbringing, and have jobs already and not struggling with managing family budget, this is not the group Republicans expect to reach or even try to reach. It’s simply not there for them. It is a class divide that can’t be healed.

  48. George Megalogenis
    ‏
    Either the coalition has forgotten the political cost of that first budget, or ministers are well aware of it but don’t care because they assume the next election is lost anyway and have decided to settle some scores on the way out.

  49. Simon² Katich® @ #791 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:27 am

    “They’re very good at the perjury trap,” Corsi said

    Oh. Oh! I nearly fell off my chair laughing at that one. People are looking at me.

    These guys are compulsive lairs. ‘Trap’ just involves asking questions.

    That’s part of the problem, they think they are beyond questioning!

  50. Bushfire Bill (Block)
    Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 10:14 am
    Comment #787

    Thanks for your post.

    My nephew has been caught in the bastardry you describe.

    I have taken the liberty of copying your post and emailing it to my nephew with my comment that all of this would be completely new and a surprise.

    Thanks again. I will post you a pair of my Dickhead Decimators™ for use as defense against roaming ratbags.

    Bon Jour. ☮

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