Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Wroe tells us that ASIO would have to add at least 9000 staff – a six-fold expansion of its current size – at a cost of at least $1 billion a year to watch all potential terrorism suspects such as the Bourke Street killer round the clock, security experts and sources have said.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/asio-would-need-to-grow-six-fold-to-watch-all-terrorism-suspects-experts-say-20181112-p50fiz.html
    And he reports that Scott Morrison is turning up the heat on Muslim leaders.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/they-can-t-look-the-other-way-scott-morrison-turns-up-heat-on-muslim-leaders-20181112-p50fhh.html
    An AFR contributor explains how the Liberals have been shooting themselves in the foot.
    https://www.outline.com/HC2ehp
    Jennifer Duke reports on the 4 Corners exposé on the ABC debacle.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/first-came-from-her-ex-abc-chair-says-sacking-alberici-was-guthrie-s-idea-20181112-p50fjs.html
    Every day Trump demonstrates what an ignorant idiot he is!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-urges-florida-to-halt-vote-recount-and-hand-races-to-republicans-20181113-p50fm7.html
    And stung by criticism for not attending an event honouring US military dead, the White House says President Donald Trump didn’t want to disrupt Paris roadways for a last-minute motorcade to a cemetery in northern France.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/north-america/white-house-defends-trump-s-cemetery-no-show-20181113-p50fm6.html
    Henry Olson explains how the midterm elections have revealed a starkly divided America.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/12/what-did-the-midterms-reveal-a-divided-america
    Peter Hartcher tells us Trump is not a bad dream and that we need to deal with his America. He says some experts have called for a “coalition of the responsible” to supply the leadership that the Trump administration will not.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/trump-is-not-a-bad-dream-how-australia-can-deal-with-trump-s-america-20181112-p50fgm.html
    But Greg Sheridan writes that Morrison has mounted the strongest defence of any allied leader so far of Donald Trump’s trade policies, denying that Washington has turned protectionist because of its imposition of tariffs on China.
    https://www.outline.com/H4Fp7P
    It’s looking increasingly likely that Bill Shorten will become Australia’s next PM. That’s hardly a frightening prospect, writes Richard Tuffin.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/prepare-bill-shorten-for-our-next-pm,12089
    How can the Uber Tuber take issue with such a studied contribution as this one from Anne Aly?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/more-laws-won-t-stop-terrorism-but-effective-prevention-is-complex-20181110-p50f9p.html
    The spiritual leader of the Islamic youth centre where Bourke Street terrorist Hassan Khalif Shire Ali ­attended prayer sessions has ­accused Scott Morrison of making the Muslim community a scapegoat to distract from the failure of police and intelligence services to prevent Friday’s attack.
    https://outline.com/rza8Lj
    Security expert Professor Clive Williams explains how our health system could be used to help fight terrorism. He says that if Australia wants to be better positioned to anticipate and prevent lone-actor attacks, we need to put more resources into our mental health management systems, particularly in Muslim migrant communities that may not trust security authorities.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-australia-s-health-system-could-help-fight-terrorism-20181111-p50fer.html
    Morrison wants Muslim leaders to do more to prevent terrorism, but academic Greg Barton asks what more can they do.
    https://theconversation.com/morrison-wants-muslim-leaders-to-do-more-to-prevent-terrorism-but-what-more-can-they-do-106776
    Gillian Triggs has criticised the PM’s comment that there can be no mental health excuse for a terrorist in the wake of the Bourke Street terror attack. The article also provides a good outline of what else was discussed on Q and A.
    https://www.outline.com/EMKqtM
    Peter FitzSimons says that Morrison should have made the trip to France an heard Macron’s magnificent speech.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-should-have-been-by-macron-s-side-20181112-p50fgp.html
    And Paul Bongiorno says that Morrison’s absence shows he is a prime minister in caretaker mode.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/11/12/scott-morrison-missing-action/
    Nicole Hasham tells us that the economic viability of a multibillion-dollar infrastructure project supporting the Snowy 2.0 expansion should not be publicly tested because the project is nationally significant and the analysis might cause delays, Snowy Hydro says. Sounds a bit hubristic?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/snowy-hydro-says-multibillion-dollar-energy-project-doesn-t-need-cost-benefit-test-20181112-p50fir.html
    Elizabeth Knight welcomes us to the post-royal commission era of borrowing. Heightened scrutiny by banks of the financial position of borrowers will be the new order and responsible lending will get a whole lot more responsible.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/from-netflix-to-nannies-banks-on-warpath-over-every-dollar-you-spend-20181112-p50fjm.html
    Meanwhile mortgage borrowers unable to get a loan from a major bank were given clear instructions on how to take advantage of the soft underbelly of home loan regulation by a group of experts at the UBS Australasia Conference in Sydney on Monday.
    https://www.outline.com/Zshc7s
    Housing experts say it’s a matter of time before regulators are forced to step in and take action as more first home buyers and investors desert the property market. As auction clearance rates fall toward historic lows, fears are growing a so-called ‘credit crunch’, as banks respond to the royal commission by tightening lending standards, is starting to bite.
    https://www.outline.com/e39z8v
    And Greg Jericho says that housing’s lost some heat – but first-time buyers will still get burned. As usual his contribution is laden with factual data.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/grogonomics/2018/nov/13/housings-lost-some-heat-but-first-time-buyers-will-still-get-burned
    Michael Pascoe weighs in on the subject saying that what’s much less understood is that we’re being driven to the top of the debt pile by government policy. And, in the process, it is effectively government policy to make our housing among the world’s most expensive.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/11/12/record-household-debt/
    Sally Whyte reports that outsourced call centre workers are telling Centrelink customers incorrect information, transferring calls unnecessarily and making errors, according to a union survey of Human Services workers. What a shambles!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/in-their-own-words-centrelink-staff-reveal-contractor-woes-20181109-p50f5y.html
    Michael Koziol writes that the country’s biggest universities say they are “under assault” and have launched an extraordinary attack on the Morrison government over a fresh round of cuts to academic research.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-are-under-assault-major-universities-go-to-war-with-morrison-government-over-research-cuts-20181112-p50fih.html
    The TWU’s Michael Kaine writes that the recent Foodora case demonstrates why government needs to regulate the on-demand economy so that the swindling of workers and tax revenues ends. But we must regulate it in the right way.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/celebrations-in-foodora-case-may-be-short-lived-20181112-p50fjq.html
    Scott Morrison’s plan to divest the assets of electricity companies could face a High Court challenge. Major energy operators are threatening to adopt the legal defence used in the Australian film “The Castle”.
    https://www.outline.com/aCE4d8
    Katharine Murphy also writes about the big energy companies pushing pack.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/13/energy-companies-push-back-on-coalition-threat-to-break-them-up
    The SMH editorial looks at the government’s handling of the My Health Record issue.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/uncertainty-looms-over-myhealth-deadline-20181109-p50f64.html
    Retired senior police officer Nick Kaldas warns citizens of the dangers of intervening in incidents such as what happened in Bourke Street.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/brave-he-may-be-but-trolley-man-should-not-be-a-model-20181112-p50fgq.html
    Energy users and the renewables industry said a Victorian Liberal Party plan to underwrite construction of 500 megawatts of “firm” power would likely lead to wind or solar energy backed by storage rather than coal or gas plant.
    https://www.outline.com/5tKVgd
    Adam Morton writes that Australia’s carbon footprint has expanded for the last three years straight – and the coal industry is not to blame. The biggest driver has been liquefied natural gas, known as LNG.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/13/problem-in-waiting-why-natural-gas-will-wipe-out-australias-emissions-gains
    Global warming will fundamentally change the habitability of Earth. Steve Bishop tells us that a recent article in The Australian on climate change has many errors and misrepresentations. It continues to publish rubbish about global warming he says.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/the-australians-continued-support-of-climate-change-denialism,12088
    The former head of safety at Dreamworld parent company Ardent Leisure told the inquiry that deficiencies in the park’s corporate structure was at the heart of its safety issues.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/qld/2018/11/12/safety-boss-faces-dreamworld-inquest/
    Investors have deepened Lendlease’s rut bringing the total value destroyed at the building giant over the last two trading days to almost $2.2 billion as debate continued on whether it should ditch its troubled engineering division.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/lendlease-loses-2-2b-in-two-terrible-days-20181112-p50fif.html
    And for “Arsehole of the Week” . . . .
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/man-accused-of-killing-girlfriend-karate-kicked-ex-partner-court-20181112-p50flx.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and bellhop Morrison.

    Mark David with an inspired PM.

    Some perspective from Peter Broelman.

    Zanetti on the Bourke Street response.

    Johannes Leak needs to lift his game.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/johannes-leak-cartoons/image-gallery/2403b703a84c4deb3bbc4247796b447f
    David Pope with an awful looking Spud.
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/2d64b1e5a524fd50cf3fa217205b2a7507d89551
    More in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-november-13-2018-20181112-h17too.html

  2. phoenixRED @ #696 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:38 am

    White House confirms Trump will not visit Arlington cemetery on Veterans Day as rain is expected

    The White House on Monday confirmed that President Donald Trump will not visit Arlington National Cemetery on Veterans Day.

    According to Washington Post correspondent Josh Dawsey, the White House announced “a lid” on presidential movements at 10 a.m. ET, meaning the president is not scheduled to leave the White House for the remainder of the day.

    Weather.com forecasted a 100 percent chance of rain at Arlington National Cemetery on Monday.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/white-house-confirms-trump-will-not-visit-arlington-cemetery-veterans-day-rain-expected/

    Why don’t people just say that he’s afraid that the rain will deflate his fairy floss hair do and he’ll look ridiculous!?! Well, more ridiculous than usual.

  3. France’s army appears to mock Trump for not wanting to go out in the rain to pay tribute to vets

    President Donald Trump once again won’t be paying tribute to American veterans amid rainy weather — and even France’s military appears to be calling him out for it.

    The official Twitter count of L’Armée de Terre — a.k.a., the French Army — on Monday posted a photo of a French soldier crawling on the ground in the pouring rain.

    The photo came with the following message: “Il y a de la pluie, mais c’est pas grave — on reste motivé.” According to Just Security editor Kate Brannen, this translates to, “It’s raining, but it’s not a big deal. We’re staying motivated.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/frances-army-appears-mock-trump-not-wanting-go-rain-pay-tribute-vets/

  4. Neil Young one of many to lose their house in Malibu

    “In a post on his website, Young responded: “California is vulnerable – not because of poor forest management as DT (our so-called president) would have us think. We are vulnerable because of climate change; the extreme weather events and our extended drought is part of it.”

    : “Imagine a leader who defies science, saying these solutions shouldn’t be part of his decision-making on our behalf. Imagine a leader who cares more for his own, convenient option than he does for the people he leads. Imagine an unfit leader. Now imagine a fit one.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2018/nov/12/neil-young-donald-trump-california-fires-climate-change?CMP=share_btn_tw

  5. Memory of a Trump:

    ‘However, I do point out that you’re own criticism was not even a complete sentence.’

    ‘I don’t think I’ve had a go at anyone’s grammatical errors on here.’

  6. Another Lie, Another Day:

    The Conversation
    ‏Verified account @ConversationEDU
    35m35 minutes ago

    Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said “you can’t reflect society if 90% of your members of parliament were chosen from trade unions and worked in trade unions”.

    Let’s take a look at the numbers.

  7. You’ve got to wonder, how many Coalition MPs were members of ‘Associations’, another word for Unions of people in the same Trade, before they went into parliament? 🙂

  8. lizzie,
    I simply copy every post now, in order to avoid having them evaporate before my eyes. WordPress has a lot of bugs that never seem to be ironed out. You have to devise workarounds for all of them.

  9. C@t

    It only happens very occasionally, which naturally catches me unawares. At the same time the little “Howdy, lizzie” at the top fools me into thinking I’m still logged in. Now that’s a bug I’d like fixed!

  10. zoomster @ #651 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 7:22 am

    Memory of a Trump:

    ‘However, I do point out that you’re own criticism was not even a complete sentence.’

    ‘I don’t think I’ve had a go at anyone’s grammatical errors on here.’

    Yeah, he tries to get away with accusing others of exactly the thing he has done!! Just like Trump.

    Trump is a cancer on the world. He has allowed semi-smart people like himself, to think that they can get away with that sort of garbage. Bullying buffoons just love it, he’s a walking, talking textbook for them.

  11. The crazy thing is that it’s the unions that make the labor party a mass participation party. The Liberal Party is just a clique of right-wing crazies.

  12. Zoidlord

    I have never known ‘outsourcing’ or ‘contracting’ contribute anything to the happiness and efficiency of existing staff. Writing out specific duties in a contract invariably leaves out the human component and the local experience. Service to clients is invariably compromised.

  13. Michael Pascoe

    Can’t help repeating this:”In its past two monthly measures of Australian news sites, Nielsen has estimated The New Daily’s digital audience as bigger than that of The Australian.”

  14. The impression I got from Michelle Guthrie is that she spoke haltingly so that she had the time to run through in her mind what would be the best non-answer to give to the question.

    Which she then follows up with weaponising rules and regulations and employs a phalanx of lawyers to get back into a position of power, in order to keep her CV without blemish, such as she is doing now with her legal action against the ABC.

    These people are despicable. They have perverted the concept of merit determining who should ascend to the top jobs.

  15. Paul Barratt

    This is not a criticism of ASIO, which has an extraordinarily difficult job to do, but I can’t fail to note that in the mind of Morrison it is OK for ASIO not to spot a terrorist who is about to commit an act of violence, but not OK for the Muslim community to make same mistake.

  16. C@tmomma says:

    The impression I got from Michelle Guthrie is that she spoke haltingly

    Who wouldn’t knowing that every Orc in the Rupertarium would be waiting to pounce on any opportunity to misquote,misconstrue,take out of context what you say ?

  17. poroti

    I think ‘haltingly’, that is, repeating words and appearing to stumble, is Guthrie’s normal manner of speaking. Even in written speeches.

  18. How many on the Coalition benches come from a background of representing employees?

    Indeed, as a solicitor, who did the likes of Bishop and Costello represent?

    How many of the solicitors on the Coalition benches have a CV including pro bono representation for community?

    Then you get to organisations such at the IPA and their representation on the Coalition benches

  19. booleanbach

    See, he does have empathy & a heart after all.

    No he has focus groups and a back bench full of people starting to think………..

  20. The question should be turned on Birmingham

    Google is a wonderful thing!!

    His employment includes less than one year with the AHA

    His remainder employment has been with Liberal Party parliamentarians – starting with Robert Hill who was a long serving Liberal Senator representing SA

    SA certainly throws up some interesting Liberal Party representatives – from Andrew Jones, son of Tom onwards until today

    And they do not understand that a Downer does not represent Mayo

    In the smoke filled premises of the Adelaide Club and the Tattersalls Club it is just not good enough

  21. lizzie @ #722 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 4:07 am

    Paul Barratt

    This is not a criticism of ASIO, which has an extraordinarily difficult job to do, but I can’t fail to note that in the mind of Morrison it is OK for ASIO not to spot a terrorist who is about to commit an act of violence, but not OK for the Muslim community to make same mistake.

    BINGO!!!!

  22. Fr Rod Bower

    So @ScottMorrisonMP If your name is Gargasoulas and you kill 6 people in #BourkeSt because God told you to you have a mental illness. If your name is Ali and you kill one person in Burke Street because God told you to, you are a #Terrorist. #Auspol #qanda

  23. lizzie @ #711 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 7:38 am

    C@t

    It only happens very occasionally, which naturally catches me unawares. At the same time the little “Howdy, lizzie” at the top fools me into thinking I’m still logged in. Now that’s a bug I’d like fixed!

    What irritates me is the ‘Howdy’. A needless yankee salutation. All it needs is

    ‘Howdy Pardner!’ and it would be complete.

    What is wrong with ‘Hello’ ?

    Or even ‘Gday’ ?

    Which is how I always start my informal emails.

  24. Good Morning

    On Morrison. He is a figure of ridicule because he has no substance. He has started at Abbott’s Knight and Dames type of governing and gone on from there.

  25. don

    I’m resentful of the ‘Howdy’, too, but decided it was tactful not to criticise the Master when he devotes so much time to us. 😉

  26. Thanks again BK for the Dawn Patrol

    I have looked through the items and as a result the yard looks like getting a good work over.

    Retired senior police officer Nick Kaldas warns citizens of the dangers of intervening in incidents such as what happened in Bourke Street.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/brave-he-may-be-but-trolley-man-should-not-be-a-model-20181112-p50fgq.html

    Und zo – mesdames et monsieurs – I vill be carefully assessing each passer by – especially that little ball of fluff that masquerades as a cuddly, playful and friendly (did I mention gorgeous ❓ ) creature par excellence (otherwise known as a small dog).

    No fast moves, alert to an escape route, aware of danger from the doves, magpies and other terror implements.
    Is the postman who he pretends to be – a man of a certain age interested in assisting his blind niece and collecting and playing with old toys (possibility of bomb making there) – even the Post Office Delivery Lady who calls a couple of times a year to gladden my, and my neighbour across the road, heart. Is she an advance agent scouting for likely targets of opportunity.

    Warning, warning – those black helicopters with the midnight camouflage are here to assist. Do not attempt to impede the progress of either the flying machine or the rapid response troops. (Recommended by UK expert). – Is the full stop in the right place – always a problem for me.

    Prepare to make a run for it ❓ Not likely for we septuagenarians ❗

    Aaargghh fuggit. Boil the kettle – fresh coffee – business as usual.

    Save this load of ***** using clipboard manager and prepare to meet the day.

    E & OE

  27. Morning all.

    We went to see Bohemian Rhapsody last night. It was fantastic! If you love Queen and their music you will love the movie.

  28. Victoria:

    This is what gives me hope for 2020 that the Democrats will win back the presidency and retain the House (Senate make up makes it harder for Democrats to win).

    In suburban areas across the country, from New York to Utah to Michigan to Virginia to Kansas, the GOP is losing support. There’s no question this has a lot to do with the president. Some of these areas are in states Trump won in 2016, some he lost, but what unites most of them is how much they look like a key part of the Republican coalition: suburban, educated, above-average wealth.

    But no longer. Compare the exit polls from 2018 and the previous midterm election. In 2014, half of all college graduates voted for a Republican House candidate, while just 39 percent did so in 2018. Among white college graduates, 57 percent voted GOP in 2014 compared with only 45 percent in 2018. In 2014, voters from households making between $50,000 and $100,000 annually went for Republicans at 55 percent. Four years later, only 47 percent of those voters pulled the lever for the GOP.

    These suburban voters are not Trump’s base. In many ways they are the segment of the party Trump’s candidacy was designed to ignore, downplay, or even antagonize. Republicans in these districts aren’t as alarmed by immigration. They prefer the benefits of global trade to the protections of tariffs. They bristle at Trump’s coarse style of politics that punches first and asks questions later. For these voters, civility and moral leadership are more than just niceties—they’re motivating issues. The message Trump and the GOP send, either incidentally or intentionally, is that these Americans matter less. Increasingly, they’re listening.

    https://www.weeklystandard.com/michael-warren/they-dont-like-him-that-much

  29. When is someone going to ask Josh,

    “So fucking what?”

    Not one of these people will be effected by Labor’s policy under their current circumstances.

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