BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  2. Fozzie Logic @ #1149 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 6:05 am

    OK my image didn’t upload How is that done?

    There has been quite a lot of information on this topic lately.

    Please – what device and browser are you using ❓
    e.g. Desktop Computer – Windows 10 – Firefox/Chrome.

    Where is the image stored (the picture you want to upload) ❓
    Is it (the image) stored on your computer or somewhere else on the web ❓

    Please advise.
    Kettle is boiling – fresh coffee awaits.

    BK’s Dawn Patrol will be along soon – provided the giant cockroaches and brown snakes haven’t demolished South Australia.

    E & OE

  3. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    My eldest son has taken up rock climbing on the scarp near our place. I hope he doesn’t come upon any snakes whilst doing so. 😉

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s Sparse Sunday!

    Take the time to read this moving piece on WW1 by Peter FitzSimons.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-incontrovertible-truth-about-world-war-i-20181109-p50f0t.html
    Jacqui Maley destroys Morrison and his bus tour.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-bus-and-the-bubble-scott-morrison-s-road-trip-20181109-p50f0w.html
    Daniel Andrews writes that despite the horror of Friday’s terror, we should be proud.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/despite-the-horror-of-friday-s-terror-we-should-be-proud-20181110-p50f9y.html
    Morrison was pointed in his remarks. Shorten less divisive.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bourke-street-attack-scott-morrison-demands-muslim-leaders-call-this-out-for-what-it-is-20181110-p50f9f.html
    The Australian reports that Morrison has been slammed for his remarks singling out radical Islam in the wake of the Bourke Street terror attack.
    https://outline.com/Dxkzwn
    Researcher Greg Barton writes that lone wolf attacks hard to prevent but so are simplistic reactions.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/oceania/lone-wolf-attacks-hard-to-prevent-but-so-are-simplistic-reactions-20181110-p50fa7.html
    The new NSW deputy opposition leader says the Premier’s sympathetic noises are not enough – Elliott must go.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/premier-s-sympathetic-noises-are-not-enough-elliott-must-go-20181110-p50f9b.html
    Peter FitzSimons’ weekly column is a good one today.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/daley-must-avoid-any-folly-after-foley-s-fall-20181109-p50f5t.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimons tells us what the US can learn from Australian elections. And she’s right!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-the-us-can-learn-from-australian-elections-20181108-p50es9.html
    Has the world heeded the lessons from WW1?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/diggers-had-a-code-of-honour-in-wwi-are-we-living-up-to-it-20181109-p50f5z.html
    Michael Koziol reports that a new “national interest test” to apply to academic research grants will give ministers the power to block funding for projects that do not align with Australia’s security, foreign policy and strategic interests.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/national-interest-test-to-align-research-with-security-and-strategic-priorities-20181110-p50f89.html
    Daryl Dixon writes that shareholders are hoping that other companies will follow BHP’s lead.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/shareholders-hope-companies-follow-bhp-s-lead-20181108-p50ewi.html
    Deloitte has put forward a report showing how increasing the Newstart allowance will lead to our economy and employment rate prospering, writes Kayla Dickeson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/big-economic-benefits-for-raising-newstart-says-deloitte,12085
    This consumer advocate takes her kids out of school to take holidays Here she tells us why.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/i-take-my-kids-out-of-school-for-holidays-this-is-why-20181109-p50f20.html
    In a long essay Michael Koziol looks at same sex marriage one year on.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/one-year-after-yes-vote-same-sex-couples-celebrate-and-fight-anew-20181109-p50ezc.html
    Shares in construction behemoth LendLease tanked on Friday, dusting almost $2 billion in a day. Two questions: is there more blood yet to be shed, and what the blazes is chief executive Steve McCann doing selling shares in his own stock? Michael West reports.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/lendlease-nasty-surprise-may-not-be-the-last/
    As Donald Trump tried again to distance himself from Matthew Whitaker, his own choice as acting attorney general after he fired Jeff Sessions, House minority leader Nancy Pelosi said the appointment “does violence to the constitution and the vision of our founders”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/10/nancy-pelosi-donald-trump-whitaker-acting-attorney-general-constitution
    Trump is a prick!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/trump-pulls-out-of-ww1-memorial-at-us-cemetery-in-france-due-to-rain-20181111-p50fb4.html

    Cartoon Corner

    A Sunday special from David Rowe.

    Peter Broelman gives Morrison’s bus another serve.

    From the US.

    Sean Leahy distils the Bourke St attack.

    A beauty from Alan Moir.

    Here’s a few more.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-november-11-2018-20181110-h17r1d.html

  9. What a great opening line from Maley:

    Refusing to call an election, while running what looks an awful lot like an election campaign: it is not the fairest of dinkums.

  10. Spot on!

    The Prime Minister talks about the “Canberra bubble” as though he has not spent nearly his whole professional life in it; as though he is not a creature of it himself.

  11. This article seems to be beating up Brendan Nelson for the next GG. I don’t agree with it.

    He is fit and active at age 60 and is already an untainted national figure.

    Dr Nelson also has republican tendencies and if not appointed to the vice-regal post might loom as an elected president in a hypothetical constitutional change.

    This could be the weekend which seals the prospect of Mr Nelson becoming Her Majesty’s representative — or even replacement — in Australia.

    Most recently, Dr Nelson helped package and announce a $500 million expansion of the Australian War Memorial in Canberra to accommodate displays honouring overseas deployments which at present have no fixtures, and to upgrade the technologies and visitor interactions of the building.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/is-brendan-nelson-our-next-governorgeneral/news-story/fcb215df75d7360c3a87deb5a1e0b1ed#.qccvf

  12. Good morning BK and thanks for the Dawn Patrol – truly appropriate name for today.

    From your today file –

    Take the time to read this moving piece on WW1 by Peter FitzSimons.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-incontrovertible-truth-about-world-war-i-20181109-p50f0t.html

    I have read that and the tears came –

    “Died In A Foreign Field. And For What?”

    After all the books, all the research, all the field trips, all the talking to the descendants of the shattered families, I am still not sure there is a satisfactory answer to that question.

    In spite of the Lest We Forget –
    Eric Bogle’s “The Green Fields of France” contains the words.

    But here in this graveyard it’s still no mans land
    The countless white crosses in mute witness stand
    To man’s blind indifference to his fellow man
    To a whole generation that were butchered and dammed
    Well Willie Mc Bride I can’t help wonder why
    Do those that lie here know why they died
    And did they believe when they answered the call
    Did they really believe that this war would end war.

    The crosses have multiplied and are spread around the planet – as somewhere, Colonel Blimp is planning on charging the machine guns again, although he will remain safely to the rear.

    Good morning all.

  13. Roman Quaedvlieg is coming out with some very good stuff.
    “Bourke St reminds us that radical & mutated ideology is a virus that infects those without immunity, such as the impressionable & mentally ill & no matter how capable authorities are, it is impossible to prevent every manifestation of this disease. Community resilience is vital.”
    Contrast this with what Morrison said.

  14. Jennifer Bechwati
    ‏@jenbechwati
    15h15 hours ago

    BREAKING: PM @ScottMorrisonMP holds meeting with the head of ASIO, AFP and Home Affairs in his office at Parliament House Canberra to talk about the #BourkeSt terror attack. #7News #auspol

    Kaz
    @kaz_neena


    Breaking: Media takes photos of men sitting around a table milking a tragedy for political gain. #SickOfThisShit

  15. lizzie @ #1264 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 7:29 am

    Jennifer Bechwati
    ‏@jenbechwati
    15h15 hours ago

    BREAKING: PM @ScottMorrisonMP holds meeting with the head of ASIO, AFP and Home Affairs in his office at Parliament House Canberra to talk about the #BourkeSt terror attack. #7News #auspol

    Kaz
    @kaz_neena

    ” rel=”nofollow”>
    Breaking: Media takes photos of men sitting around a table milking a tragedy for political gain. #SickOfThisShit

    I bet these people really weren’t that happy either to be dragged into Parliament House by ScaMo for his photo opportunity.

  16. In the last week or so our fixed wireless NBN service has been tweaked. Download speed gone from 20 Mbps to 31 Mbps and astonishingly upload has increased from 4,5 to 15.5 Mbps!

  19. This was Morrison in 2011. Note that Ruddock & Bishop disagreed.

    THE opposition immigration spokesman, Scott Morrison, urged the shadow cabinet to capitalise on the electorate’s growing concerns about “Muslim immigration”, “Muslims in Australia” and the “inability” of Muslim migrants to integrate.

    Mr Morrison’s suggestion was made at a meeting in December at which shadow ministers were asked to bring three ideas for issues on which the Coalition should concentrate its political attack during this parliamentary term.

    The Herald has learnt several colleagues, including the deputy leader, Julie Bishop, and the former immigration minister Philip Ruddock, strongly disagreed with the suggestion, pointing out that the Coalition had long supported a non-discriminatory immigration policy and saying it was not an issue that should be pursued.

    But after Mr Morrison’s comments this week on the cost of asylum-seeker funerals and his role in the controversial decision to cut a Howard government program to fund schools in Indonesia, colleagues are privately questioning whether he is trying to pursue an anti-Muslim political strategy unilaterally.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-sees-votes-in-anti-muslim-strategy-20110216-1awmo.html

    Nyadol Nyuon
    ‏@NyadolNyuon
    10h10 hours ago

    Replying to @Meshel_Laurie @ScottMorrisonMP
    Not surprising, this was him sometime back: Morrison sees votes in anti-Muslim strategy

  20. Re the Bourke St. guy. It is reported his family arrived in the late 1980s. If the guy was 30 as has been reported then he is very much a product of this country, ‘Made in Australia’ as it were.

  21. From the Dawn Patrol the First World Problem Gold Medal has a clear winner this week .
    .
    .
    “This consumer advocate takes her kids out of school to take holidays Here she tells us why”

    For two kids at a private school the effective cost/loss of withdrawing them for two weeks in first term is still only, say, $1200…………………..For your family to watch the ball drop in Times Square on New Year, it will cost you an all-up $20,760.

    In Goa ($9378 over Christmas/New Year), ……………….. For those families, there’s little choice but submit to the silly (price) season.

  23. Some reminders of what a nasty turd our PM is.

    Tears as babies killed in Christmas Island tragedy buried………mourners farewell Christmas Island boat victims,

    The Opposition’s spokesman on immigration Scott Morrison has condemned the Government’s payments to fly 21 close relatives to the funerals, and said grieving Australian citizens don’t get similar help.

    “I don’t think it is responsible,” Mr Morrison told ABC radio.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/row-over-asylum-seeker-funeral-costs/news-story/6e5c613ba23fbd1e98756c69f8291fad

    One of the world’s most heartless immigration ministers – now the federal treasurer – refuses to apologise when he’s wrong.

    “Scott Morrison, former immigration minister, now treasurer, was asked by Insiders host Barrie Cassidy to account for the decision to expel from Nauru 10 staff members of respected charity Save the Children in 2014. The allegations were brutal – these charity workers were inciting asylum seekers to self-harm.

    Can you imagine anything more hurtful to those people? No one volunteers to work in non-government organisations for the money and the status. It’s always about protecting and defending the vulnerable.

    Now, the accused staff members have been cleared of any wrongdoing and the government is being forced to compensate them.

    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/scott-no-heart-scott-no-apology-20160509-gopkuo.html

    Immigration Minister Scott Morrison has said the family of a refugee, who died after setting himself alight, would face “very real difficulties” in obtaining visitor visas to attend his funeral if held in Australia.

    Mr Morrison said he could not instruct his department to issue visitor visas for the family and had instead offered to repatriate the man’s remains.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/family-of-leo-seemanpillai-may-not-get-visas-for-funeral-immigration-minister-scott-morrison-says-20140607-39pjc.html

  25. Just one big, happy family since Turnbull was defenestrated:

    “The PM can get f—ed. We’re not going to take direction from him on pre-selection. We honestly don’t give a f— what he says.” – An unnamed senior Liberal, moving to oust Liberal backbencher Craig Kelly from pre-selection in favour of a moderate, on the fact the Prime Minister was personally lobbying for Kelly to get the nod.

    😯

  29. Good Morning

    I need to clarify something given the subsequent conversation to my post. When I label Labor Centre Right I am speaking in economic terms only and I do stress the reason Labor is not just right is they do support left policies on IR Medicare etc.

    I see Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour as centre left. Not radical left. Just so people know. 🙂

  30. C@tmomma @ #41000 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 6:39 am

    Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    My eldest son has taken up rock climbing on the scarp near our place. I hope he doesn’t come upon any snakes whilst doing so. 😉

    Lobster Cave? If so I can definitely confirm the risk. Most of the Central Coast faces are single pitch- so as a belayer you can tie off the climber and escape. This is better than sharing a belay ledge with a pissed off Goanna.

  31. A tweet that sums up my feelings and I suspect a lot of Australians as well.

    @CatPurry9 tweets

    I’m not afraid of Muslim Australians.
    I’m afraid of Americanised Australians who want our gun laws relaxed, our civil rights weakened, our free healthcare and education taken away and our minimum wages & working conditions decimated.
    Know who your real enemies are.
    #auspol

  32. rhwombat,
    He said he was climbing the cliff face of Maitland Bay yesterday when he came upon a very good and thick rope which had been conveniently and helpfully placed there. 🙂

    he said that, what he loves about it is that he has to do many, on-the-spot maths and physics calculations in order to calculate the best and safest way to scale each surface.

    I will admit, he has an iron grip, and that helps immensely. Has had, since the day he was born.

  34. Insiders ABCVerified accountInsidersABC
    38m38 minutes ago
    Joining @barriecassidy at 9am on #Insiders is @NSWLabor’s @michaeldaleyMP. @GuardianAus’s @mpbowers is talking pictures with @SBSNews’s @marija_ziv . On the couch is @RNDrive’s @PatsKarvelas, @smh’s @markgkenny and @abc730’s @latingle #auspol

  35. David Mack
    ‏Verified account @davidmackau
    7h7 hours ago

    Trump is giving the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the top US civilian honor, to 3 dead people (Elvis, Babe Ruth, Antonin Scalia), a GOP senator (Orrin Hatch), and Miriam Adelson, the wife of GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson, who gave $55 million to elect Republicans in the midterms

  40. Lizzie

    My problem with that article is not the news and information they are spreading.

    Its that this is a newspaper that is part of an organisation that demonises the homeless. I am glad the man was there with his shopping trolley and his bravery. I wish we did not have the war and that we had no waiting lists for public housing.

    Thus no radicalisation and no homelessness. The same attitudes that radicalised the mentally ill guy are those we see in this paper with coverage of “African Gangs” and like the Daily Telegraph putting an innocent NSW Uni student on its front page making out he is guilty of terrorism.

    Both these problems would be less without the toxic Murdoch media in our country

  41. I note the excellent work of BK includes the Barton article I previously referred to from The Age online

    This article is worth a read – and as I included in my commentary by some of a certain political persuasion

  44. Observer

    This is the go to person I start with on my economic thinking

    By Joseph Stiglitz

    In the middle of the twentieth century, it came to be believed that ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’: economic growth would bring increasing wealth and higher living standards to all sections of society. At the time, there was some evidence behind that claim. In industrialised countries in the 1950s and 1960s every group was advancing, and those with lower incomes were rising most rapidly.

    In the ensuing economic and political debate, this ‘rising-tide hypothesis’ evolved into a much more specific idea, according to which regressive economic policies— policies that favour the richer classes— would end up benefiting everyone. Resources given to the rich would inevitably ‘trickle down’ to the rest. It is important to clarify that this version of old-fashioned ‘trickle-down economics’ did not follow from the postwar evidence. The ‘rising-tide hypothesis’ was equally consistent with a ‘trickle-up’ theory— give more money to those at the bottom and everyone will benefit; or with a ‘build-out from the middle’ theory— help those at the centre, and both those above and below will benefit

    http://evonomics.com/joseph-stiglitz-inequality-unearned-income/

    Thus my support for a UBI. We saw this at work when Wayne Swan did his cash splash to prevent us joining other countries in recession.

  46. lizzie

    Sorry thats why I said I had no problem with the information in the article. I was having a go at the toxic Murdoch press. Not you.

  47. Trevor Cobbold, National Convenor, Save Our Schools:

    http://johnmenadue.com/trevor-cobbold-australia-has-one-of-the-most-socially-segregated-schools-systems-in-the-world/

    A new OECD report shows that Australia has one of the most segregated school systems in the OECD and in the world. It also shows that Australia had the equal largest increase in social segregation in the OECD and the world since 2006. Government education and funding policies are major factors behind the increase in social segregation.

    Happened under the watch of the political duopoly.

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