BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  1. Alex Turnbull:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/11/alex-turnbull-would-fund-moderate-independents-to-fight-abbott-and-joyce

    Alex Turnbull has committed to fund independent, locally based “small-L liberal” candidates who advocate action on climate change and can play a constructive role in the parliament.

    Turnbull, a Singapore-based fund manager and son of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, said he would support “reasonable” independents to run against a number of senior government MPs at the 2019 election.

    Turnbull said he would both donate his own money and help raise funds for the right candidates in key government seats. He named those held by Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce and energy minister Angus Taylor.
    ::::
    Turnbull said he would personally donate if the National Farmers Federation president, Fiona Simson, chose to run as a independent in Joyce’s electorate of New England. Simson has been urged to run against the former National party leader but is understood to be considering her options.

  3. Gabrielle Chan
    ‏Verified account @gabriellechan
    11m11 minutes ago

    Alex Turnbull would fund/source funding for moderate independents in key seats of Joyce, Abbott, Taylor as ⁦⁦@AustDems⁩ joins with ⁦@CountryMindedAu⁩ to rev up centrist options ⁦@PeteMailler⁩ ⁦@elisa_resce⁩ #auspol #RustedOff

  5. Morning all. Thanks BK. On this remembrance day let us remember the real lesson – that wars do not stop wars, nor guarantee peace and stability. So no point glorifying them. Lest we forget.

    And in Melbourne, a huge state security apparatus does not guarantee security, as Roman Quadvleig acknowledged with refreshing honesty.

    But in a highly secret meeting in Canberra, there was a serious discussion: how do we get a good photo op out of an event when ScumMo has been banished from Melbourne till the Victorian election is over? In the end the photographer was allowed into the room for security reasons. Job security. It was agreed there would be no increase in funding for mental health or drug rehabilitation. That was ruled out on sustainability grounds – it might stop the problem and eliminate future photo ops.

  6. I was not aware Ashleigh Raper-Foley thing had been dragged into the public by a Liberal MP under privilege! What a ratbag.

  8. I should add to my post to Observer this is why I bang on about neo liberalism is dead

    In most industrialised countries there has been a decline in union membership and influence; this decline has been especially strong in the Anglo-Saxon world. This has created an imbalance of economic power and a political vacuum. Without the protection afforded by a union, workers have fared even more poorly than they would have otherwise. Unions’ inability to protect workers against the threat of job loss by the moving of jobs abroad has contributed to weakening the power of unions. But politics has also played a major role, exemplified in President Reagan’s breaking of the air traffic controllers’ strike in the US in 1981 or Margaret Thatcher’s battle against the National Union of Mineworkers in the UK.

    http://evonomics.com/joseph-stiglitz-inequality-unearned-income/

  10. Confessions says:

    I was not aware Ashleigh Raper-Foley thing had been dragged into the public by a Liberal MP under privilege! What a ratbag.

    The scumbag scored extra scumbag points by claiming in his apology to her that it was “unintentional’.
    The timing of it all still puzzles me though. The timing suited Labor, time to settle in new leader and issue to fade away. For the Libs, during the middle of an election campaign would seem the obvious time to wheel out such dirt.

  12. frednk @ #51895 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 8:55 am

    C@tmomma
    There is a skill to climbing safely; I hope he is doing it with a climbing club.

    Climbing is evolving somewhat since I started in the 70’s. In those days it was mainly ex-scouts, adventurous bushwalkers, the venerable Sydney Rockies and VCC and University based clubs forming the basis of safe free climbing, using the monkey-see, monkey-do-it-right-first-time-cause-there-wasn’t-a-second approach.

    These days, the climbing gyms are central, and three indoor disciplines (sport, speed and bouldering) are going to be included in the Olympics as demonstration sports. It’s less lethal to learn from your mistakes, which is the key. There is an excellent bouldering gym in Gosford (Pulse – set up by the Newcastle people) which offers learn to climb outdoors courses. I highly recommend it.

  17. Foley responded that he would “out” 5 on the government benches apparently pointing at some.
    His lose of relevance means that isn’t happening

  19. Fozzie Logic

    The yanks turned up very late to WWI so kinda fitting of Trump . Although as history turned out perhaps it would have been best if they had not turned up at all.

  20. Fozzie Logic

    Looks like it was not Trumpensteins call. Not that the Secret Service may have been tempted to make the call knowing Trump would look bad 🙂

    The Secret Service determines when it’s safe to fly Marine One, the president’s helicopter.

    https://outline.com/aGgnS2

  22. Foley is suing the ABC for making the ‘privileged’ comments in Parliament, public.
    Insiders did not discuss the ABC’s role in all this.

  23. Socrates

    wars do not stop wars, nor guarantee peace and stability. So no point glorifying them. Lest we forget.

    That’s what I took from “lest we forget”. The young ones are being conned.

  24. “The yanks turned up very late to WWI so kinda fitting of Trump . Although as history turned out perhaps it would have been best if they had not turned up at all.”

    Woodrow Wilson was one of the more decent leaders at the time. It’s a pity the British and French (and a stroke) dragged him down post-armistice, WWII might have been avoided.

  25. “Foley is suing the ABC for making the ‘privileged’ comments in Parliament, public.
    Insiders did not discuss the ABC’s role in all this.”

    The ABC no longer has any credibility.

  27. Insiders panel just scathing of Morrison. Karvelas and Tingle more aggressively so, stating he looks like an opposition leader not a PM. Very true.

  28. I still cannot believe that Donald Trump is President of the United States. Every day is mind numbing.
    Every thought, every word, every act goes to the lowest and darkest possible human instinct.
    His daily attacks on individual citizens is now almost non news. His attacks on century old institutions are a fundamental attack on democracy.
    And his latest – because it was raining, he refused to visit a sacred war memorial in France. Keeping dry was more important to this President than honouring those who died for his country.
    Mr Muller ,your time is here.

  29. poroti @ #1309 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 9:24 am

    Confessions says:

    I was not aware Ashleigh Raper-Foley thing had been dragged into the public by a Liberal MP under privilege! What a ratbag.

    The scumbag scored extra scumbag points by claiming in his apology to her that it was “unintentional’.
    The timing of it all still puzzles me though. The timing suited Labor, time to settle in new leader and issue to fade away. For the Libs, during the middle of an election campaign would seem the obvious time to wheel out such dirt.

    That’s being just a bit too cynical, poroti.

    I just think that NSW Labor were lucky to have a decent human being ready to step into the breach. As today’s Insiders interview showed.

  30. lizzie

    I was brought up to take the ‘Lest We Forget” as a warning not to forget so as to make sure such a pointless waste did not happen again. The pointless of it all, epitomised by Gallipoli.

  33. They are ‘public’ in the sense that they were made in Parliament, but that does not mean media outlets should always report them, especially when they are likely to cause hurt to a number of parties for no public benefit whatsoever.

    It seems to me that people who out women for political gain should NOT be covered by parliamentary privilege in the first place, and media who report it have no moral compass.

  35. I wonder whether we’ll be Newspolling this week – if so, will it be a ‘judgment’ on Scomo’s “I’m one of you guys … well almost” tour?

  38. booleanbach @ #1330 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 6:23 am

    They are ‘public’ in the sense that they were made in Parliament, but that does not mean media outlets should always report them, especially when they are likely to cause hurt to a number of parties for no public benefit whatsoever.

    It seems to me that people who out women for political gain should NOT be covered by parliamentary privilege in the first place, and media who report it have no moral compass.

    But the ABC was standing in support of their employee who had been outed, that surely is appropriate reporting!

  41. Foley should sue the Australian for their inaccurate front page coverage of the matter. Even Laura Tingle rubbished the paper for it this morning.

  43. Barney

    There is too much “All the way with LBJ” which was fine while wars were always “over there”.
    Perhaps “Down to the dump with Trump” might make the warmongers stop and think.

  44. “The Secret Service determines when it’s safe to fly Marine One, the president’s helicopter.”

    Unless it was blowing a hurricane out there, I can’t see Presidents Obama, Bush Jr or Sr, Clinton or Reagan accepting such advice.

  48. Don’t forget, spare a thought at 11am:

    Dear C@tmomma, on Remembrance Day we remember those brave Australians who were involved in conflicts, campaigns and peacekeeping missions. The RSL asks all Australians to pause today at 11am for a minute of unified silence to remember all those who have served our country.

    Thank you for your ongoing support. As a valued member of our VIP Club, your contribution enables the RSL to provide vital support to Australia’s veterans and their families.

  49. Foley’s departure as leader from Nsw alp is not bad a thing, from a political POV.
    Daley is a lot sharper in the media and has a better everyman appeal to him too.
    He’s a relative clean skin too (other than being a little tipsy in parliament at 2.30am at one point but anyhow).

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