The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53-47 – as usual, we must await the full report to see the primary votes. Other findings: Scott Morrison is credited with a 35% to 28% edge over Malcolm Turnbull, which he appears to owe to Coalition supporters falling in behind the incumbent; only 20% believe the leadership change has “refreshed” the government, with 59% saying it hasn’t; 26% support moving the embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, with 32% opposed; 56% say Australia is not doing enough to address climate change, with 23% saying it is; 63% express belief in anthropogenic climate change, compared with 25% favouring the alternative response attributing climate change to normal fluctuation. UPDATE: Full report here. No change whatsoever on the primary vote, with the Coalition on 38%, Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%.
Also:
• The Australian has published one of the occasional sets of Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and metropolitan-versus-regions, aggregated from multiple poll results over a period usually consisting of three months. This time though, the July-September quarter suffered the interruption of the leadership coup in late August. So results from the last three polls under Malcolm Turnbull were published shortly after the coup, and now the first four polls under Scott Morrison have been aggregated, with one more set presumably to follow at the end of the year. The two-party results show the Coalition doing three points worse than the late Turnbull period in New South Wales and Victoria, where Labor respectively leads by 54-46 and 57-43; four points worse in Queensland and Western Australia, both of which have Labor leading 54-46; and fully nine points worse in South Australia, where the Coalition led 51-49 last time, and Labor now leads 58-42. The Labor primary vote in South Australia is up fully 12%, from 28% from 40%, with “others” as well as the Coalition well down, perhaps reflecting the decline of Xenophonism. However, it should be noted the sample in the case of South Australia was only 478.
• New Matilda has results of a uComms/ReachTEL poll for GetUp! from Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, although it may be showing its age, having been conducted on September 13. The poll credits Abbott with a two-party lead of 54-46 over Labor, a swing of 7% – though in fact it was the Greens who made the final count in 2016, with a final two-party result much the same as it would have been against Labor. Perhaps more to the point, 52.6% of respondents said they would consider voting for an independent, although it was only 21.7% among Liberal voters. After allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the initially undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 41.7%, Labor 25.3%, Greens 12.7% and One Nation 4.4%. The kicker for Abbott is that 46.3% of respondents rated his performance very poor, and 10.3% the ordinary kind of poor, compared with 23.8% for very good and 10.4% for good, with a tellingly few 9.3% opting for average. The sample for the poll was 854.
• Counting in Wentworth continues, and will do so in steadily diminishing form until the end of next week. You can follow the action on the ongoing live count thread. For what it’s worth, Andrew Tillett of the Australian Financial Review quotes a Liberal source clinging to the hope that late postal votes arriving from Israel might yet yield a surprise. I had a fairly extensive look at the excitement that unfolded on Saturday and Sunday in a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday.
@lizzie
What I hate is a politician not just clearly stating “I’ve since changed my position”.
There’s some perceived stigma around that branding you a ‘back-flipper’ that is just nonsense.
Frankly it avoids you looking even more foolish at a future date.
Psyclaw @ #1199 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 1:17 pm
You are a snarky sniper, Psyclaw. Always have been, always will be. Hope it makes YOU feel good!
Diogenes @ #1300 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 4:44 pm
And? It got knocked off by the Tories anyway.
UPDATE
Fraser Anning dumped from KAP.
Is Katter frightened about losing ALP preferences in Qld?
Looks like Anning’s going to be a loser come the election. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bigot.
Leaked by Rudd to Rupert. Julia’s biggest fans. Solid as…
The fact is that official ALP policy (and legislation) over that period to use an ETS to price carbon never changed.
Question
You could certainly argue that climate change policy has already cost Rudd his job as PM once, Gillard PM once and Turnbull once as LOTO. It still hasn’t stopped wreaking political havoc.
What happens in a trade war?:
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/24/economy/china-soybeans-trade-war/index.html
Dio,
The NEG was the starting point of bringing down Turnbull as PM too.
lizzie @ #1295 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 4:39 pm
See: Kevin Rudd. Who, it seems, is still so bitter and twisted at his, frankly, benevolent despatching by his party, that he feels the need to come back like Banquo’s ghost and try to make sure they cannot win the next election either.
He is a chancre on the body politic of Australia.
Hmmm
This part of the infamous email saying Phelps had HIV didn’t get much play.
“Let people belong to Hindu background running the country is better than those white local child m0lesters. Only e1ecting Dave Sharma into office can we make sure Australia will continue to open its door to Indian migrants who are much better then the convicts offsprings.”
While as a Croweater I applaud the sentiment about convict offspring, the text appears to confirm the email certainly didn’t come from the Liberal party, and was either a prank or someone deranged.
Onebobsworth @ #1304 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 4:47 pm
I’d say so. Katter can’t win again without ALP preferences. Plus, I’d imagine Robbie Katter has had a word to dad.
Dave Sharma better tidy up his Hindu fan club’s rabid support of him if he wants to run again and win Wentworth.
Question
“The NEG was the starting point of bringing down Turnbull as PM too.”
Good point. It’s political poison, almost certainly something that won’t be solved without a bipartisan approach. The exit polls of Wentworth claim CC policy was the biggest reason the Libs lost there as well, as the very richest people don’t really care about their power bills.
Nicholas @ #1299 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 3:42 pm
Leaving aside your personal experiences, the article appears to blame “right-wing talk radio” and “24-hour cable channels ” with age as a correlation.
Dio,
I don’t think the ALP or the Greens have any choice but to pursue it. Most Australians, including most of their supporters, expect action on climate change. Sensible Lib’s do too.
Somehow I don’t think the MSM playing semantic silly buggers will work a second time around, but perhaps I am too optimistic?
I think there was a Victorian bill a while ago (maybe during Bracks’ time?) that got passed through parliament and then it became apparent they needed more time to get it into force. But it came up on the pile of things to do during an executive council meeting, and the premier advised the governor not to assent to it yet, and the governor didn’t assent to it at the time. I gather there was a little bit of a constitutional crisis about it that no-one noticed except the constitutional scholars.
I think I heard about it in the context of removing the right of the governor to withhold consent, but I don’t know whether it was something that had already happened (during Bracks’s revision of the constitution) or something the author merely thought should happen. Of course, that doesn’t have any bearing on whether the Commonwealth law is different.
My opinion is that, given our parliamentary system, if the parliament passes a bill that the executive cannot countenance, the executive should take it as a vote of no confidence and either resign or call an election. And the issue of the bill should never arise, since the executive should have already resigned or the parliament should have been dissolved before it comes up.
Hopefully we can move on from carbon tax to carbon pricing, not sure we can …..let’s hope so
C@tmomma @ #1311 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 3:52 pm
After Palaszczuk took away Robbie’s extra staff.
Diogenes @ #1300 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 3:44 pm
Hm…I kind of feel like if we’re digging up Labor minutes from 2010 then perhaps the Coalition has a better chance at the next election than everyone gives them credit for.
The first 3 to 9 words are basically unintelligible. And why the weird use for numbers for ‘m0lesters’ and ‘e1ecting’? The first one might make sense as an attempt to get around spam filters. The second, not so much.
But I wouldn’t take that as conclusive evidence that the Liberals had nothing to do with the letter. Perhaps it’s from an ultra-conservative member who likes neither Phelps nor Sharma. Or perhaps it’s there to create plausible deniability, in the form of ‘look, it says weird things about our candidate too, so clearly we didn’t do it’.
Although I’m sure I heard at least a portion of that read out somewhere. Perhaps on Media Watch?
If you care about power bills you would be supporting renewables, which this government doesn’t so they don’t care about power bills at all.
I think more and more people are seeing through the argument that tackling CC equals higher power bills.
Excellent news, but the ALP should keep Katter worried, just to focus his mind on any contested votes in the House in the coming months 🙂
Question
While opinion polls always say voters want something done about CC, they seem very reluctant to translate that into actually doing something about it. They want to have their cake and eat it too.
Personally I think Australians will have to be shamed into supporting a long term ETS/whatever it is just like we had to be shamed into SSM.
Late Riser
It’s just a rehash of a study done about 7 years ago. Basic finding was the more Fox News people watched the less informed they were. Just how Rupes likes it 🙂
Heard Katter interviewed. He said Fraser Anning was 99% pure gold but, in effect, the other 1% was pretty crap.
It will be interesting to see what the ALP put up as their climate change policy. They’ve been muttering about keeping some ramped-up version of the NEG, which I don’t know what to feel about … maybe there’s sense in trying to keep “Turnbull’s policy” on the table etc both to remind voters of Turnbull’s dumping as well as looking ‘bipartisan’ in some fashion, but I’m still not entirely sure I understand what the NEG actually is. And it’s a bloody ugly acronym to sell.
At the 2016 election, as I recall, the ALP had proposed a dual mechanism – an Emissions Intensity Scheme for the power generation sector that would have been brought in this term, and an economy-wide ETS that would start very gradually from the next term, so the initial heavy lifting would be done purely in power generation before the long term emissions reductions would be tackled by the ETS.
Without any extra insight perhaps they are looking at doing this again but with the NEG + ETS this time around. And three fewer years to spread things over.
“While opinion polls always say voters want something done about CC, they seem very reluctant to translate that into actually doing something about it. They want to have their cake and eat it too.”
As attested by the 2013 election, people were then worried about climate change but most weren’t prepared to pay to fix it.
ar
I’ll post the whole email so you can judge.
“To:xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: we are leaving next week please change your
hey xxxxxxxx, how is your weekend?
Sorry for this late notice. Kerryn Phelps no longer runs for Wentworth by-e1ection in Sydney. Can you divert your v0te to Dave Sharma instead?
It is very urgent, please let your friends know too. Use all your phone, messenger and s0cial media, and show support for Dave Sharma on your faceb00k too.
The v0ting card has been printed already, you will still see her name, but she has already quit, please DO NOT v0te for her, just choose Sharma as your top choice only. Kerryn was diagnosed with HIV yesterday so no chance she will be running for e1ection. Can you please help to remove Kerryn Phelps’s poster if you see them because we don’t have enough people to clean it up.
Cwhgs this is good news, Dave Sharma belongs to Brahmin, he is blessed, and as he will eventually become the Aussie leader, he will bring good luck to this country. Let people belong to Hindu background running the country is better than those white local child m0lesters. Only e1ecting Dave Sharma into office can we make sure Australia will continue to open its door to Indian migrants who are much better then the convicts offsprings.
Xxxxx please do one thing, choose Dave Sharma, and show support on your s0cial media, so you are making friends with the government, and you will be rewarded with new business and more benefits. Otherwise if you choose local white, they will be m0lesting your children someday. Some of them are running Childcares, you know who I am talking about.
Thank you a ton on this. And allow me to clarify, I am loca white, NOT Indian descent, do remember this.
Layla Williams”
Jackol,
Whatever the ALP propose, it will be eons more rational, sane and progressive than what the COALition have on the table. Plus, it might even actually address Anthropogenic-induced Global Warming.
Dio,
I would like to think that if the electorate was educated about how the ETS worked, rather than semantics about the word ‘tax’, they would see it as good policy.
I think the ALP and GRN have learned from their mistakes and will present any policy accordingly.
I doubt the Greens will force the lead-in to be 3 years this time.
Dutton makes a speech.
@citizen
Dutton reading private mail to the public.
(Breach of Privacy?)…
Politics is the art of the possible. A resurrected and beefed up NEG may be the third or fourth best climate policy but, in Labor’s hands it would be a good start and can be strengthened in future. The Coalition has no policy and allies itself with coal interests who want to keep their game going for as long as possible.
The unabridged email makes it clear that Layla Williams did it. 🙂
Also Phelps now +1720 in Wentworth. It’ll be funny if the late postals break slightly in her favor and she winds up sitting on +1800 instead of the +700 that was being predicted not so long ago.
Policies to encourage renewables and EV’s would be a good start.
Jackol,
I have no problem with using the acronym ‘NEG’ if it semantically gets a few more sensible Libs on-side. It was good to see Hewson ramp-up at Wentworth.
As you say, we should be talking about expanding it by now. Hopefully it will go the same way as Medicare and 2nd time the charm.
poroti @ #1323 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 4:08 pm
Pretty much what I got from the article too.
C@t 4.45pm
You are so predictable. My post to Sprocket was to correct a factual error. It was written politely.
But you, as No1 bully here, No1 victim, No 1 poor-me, No1 protector of the InGroup, No 1 grudge holder, No1 “I’m innocent” can’t help yourself and have to intervene. Are you against the facts outlined in the Constitution.
Here’s a tip C@t ……… butt out and grow up. And have a nice day.
Diogenes
We have got to the point where the most expensive option is to try and preserve coal. Liberals are now on the wrong side of science and economics.
Another reason Australia might do something is if there were international trade tariffs to penalise free-loading countries but that will never happen with Trump in the WH.
Frednk,
It seems very odd to me that the Lib’s, who are supposed to love business, went to so much effort to shut down a whole new marketplace. Carbon credits. And now their answers on energy are all about government decree.
It makes me suspect they are more about ‘business interests’ than they are about business. (actually I’m well past suspecting).
Who is Layla Williams?
Perhaps Treasury is so Lib-dominated that they don’t accept it either. 😮
fred
It’s not just power that has to change. Electricity is only about 40% of Australia’s emissions. Agriculture and transport add up to about as much.
Julia Banks
@ar
Late postal are definitely breaking Phelp’s way TCP split over the last few days.
Tuesday 794 postals – 54.7% TCP to Sharma
Wednesday 466 postals – 47.9% TCP to Sharma
Today 549 postals – 44.3% TCP to Sharma
Psyclaw @ #1336 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 5:17 pm
Which is why it was addressed to guytaur, whom the real bullies around here like to pick on. Anyway, good to see you’re as coherent as ever, Psyclaw. 😉
And the ad feminem was, like, sooo predictable. Hope it made your day though. 🙂
Peter Dutton sticking his nose into the Victorian election again.
“African gang violence will ‘result in death’ if government doesn’t recognise problem”
Steve777 @ #1340 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 5:24 pm
I hope there is a thoroughgoing search happening atm to find her.
This CNN article reckons that Trump’s behaviour has encouraged fierce rivals China and Japan to come closer together to confront what they see as a common enemy on trade.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/24/asia/japan-china-us-trump-intl/index.html