The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53-47 – as usual, we must await the full report to see the primary votes. Other findings: Scott Morrison is credited with a 35% to 28% edge over Malcolm Turnbull, which he appears to owe to Coalition supporters falling in behind the incumbent; only 20% believe the leadership change has “refreshed” the government, with 59% saying it hasn’t; 26% support moving the embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, with 32% opposed; 56% say Australia is not doing enough to address climate change, with 23% saying it is; 63% express belief in anthropogenic climate change, compared with 25% favouring the alternative response attributing climate change to normal fluctuation. UPDATE: Full report here. No change whatsoever on the primary vote, with the Coalition on 38%, Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%.
Also:
• The Australian has published one of the occasional sets of Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and metropolitan-versus-regions, aggregated from multiple poll results over a period usually consisting of three months. This time though, the July-September quarter suffered the interruption of the leadership coup in late August. So results from the last three polls under Malcolm Turnbull were published shortly after the coup, and now the first four polls under Scott Morrison have been aggregated, with one more set presumably to follow at the end of the year. The two-party results show the Coalition doing three points worse than the late Turnbull period in New South Wales and Victoria, where Labor respectively leads by 54-46 and 57-43; four points worse in Queensland and Western Australia, both of which have Labor leading 54-46; and fully nine points worse in South Australia, where the Coalition led 51-49 last time, and Labor now leads 58-42. The Labor primary vote in South Australia is up fully 12%, from 28% from 40%, with “others” as well as the Coalition well down, perhaps reflecting the decline of Xenophonism. However, it should be noted the sample in the case of South Australia was only 478.
• New Matilda has results of a uComms/ReachTEL poll for GetUp! from Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, although it may be showing its age, having been conducted on September 13. The poll credits Abbott with a two-party lead of 54-46 over Labor, a swing of 7% – though in fact it was the Greens who made the final count in 2016, with a final two-party result much the same as it would have been against Labor. Perhaps more to the point, 52.6% of respondents said they would consider voting for an independent, although it was only 21.7% among Liberal voters. After allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the initially undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 41.7%, Labor 25.3%, Greens 12.7% and One Nation 4.4%. The kicker for Abbott is that 46.3% of respondents rated his performance very poor, and 10.3% the ordinary kind of poor, compared with 23.8% for very good and 10.4% for good, with a tellingly few 9.3% opting for average. The sample for the poll was 854.
• Counting in Wentworth continues, and will do so in steadily diminishing form until the end of next week. You can follow the action on the ongoing live count thread. For what it’s worth, Andrew Tillett of the Australian Financial Review quotes a Liberal source clinging to the hope that late postal votes arriving from Israel might yet yield a surprise. I had a fairly extensive look at the excitement that unfolded on Saturday and Sunday in a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday.
lizzie @ #1344 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 5:28 pm
We have seen a lot of Libs get teary and emotional about particular issues in recent years. But, when push comes to shove they fold at the last minute.
Remember the live sheep export debacle?
It’s now a question of whether a couple more Libs will make the same demand and be prepared to bring the Government down unless they comply. Laundy may be one. Henderson another.
It’s time for action. Words, thoughts and prayers don’t cut it!
Peter Dutton sticking his nose into the Victorian election again.
Sad, really, that that’s all they’ve got on the Coalition side. Fear and division of the electorate.
Anyway, I’ll be able to see for myself this weekend when I go to Melbourne and go to a few restaurants and gigs and speak to old friends who have lived there for decades. If they’re still alive by tomorrow! 😉
citizen @ #1349 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 5:35 pm
I thought we hadn’t seen Shinzo Abe at the White House for a while!
GG
Julia Banks said a lot more than that – on Remeikis page – but I didn’t think I should post it all.
However, I do agree on the animal cruelty biz.
Steve777, I wish you hadn’t asked.
Layla is a fictional character from the 2005 film Sky High.
http://disney.wikia.com/wiki/Layla_Williams
“I hope there is a thoroughgoing search happening atm to find her.”
There’s no one in Google who looks like it might be her. There is a Disney character who has power over plants or something. Probably a fake name.
Andrew Bolt is saying it’s an ABC smear on Sharma because they didn’t say it’s from Layla Williams. Or something like that.
EDIT: I read Bolt’s article, he has a point, the email seems to be push-polling against Sharma. I hope he is as diligent next time Newscorp doesn’t show the full context.
Laocoon
Yes AMP was slaughtered. Its lowest ever level in history.Market down 167 points today.Some investors must be thinking there is another financial crisis coming.
lizzie @ #1355 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 5:41 pm
I have read the speech and it’s fine words. But, I want to see the outcome and not another Lib posturing with no intention of following through.
GG
It seems Banks is going to metamorphose into an Independent. We’ll wait and see. 🙂
Dio
There is something really familiar about that wording. I do not get them very much any more, but it sounds like the creole of the Nigerian scammers, or the cute Russian minx’s you really just love your photo, and want to devote the rest of their life to making you happy.
My best take is someone taking the piss? Especially with the numbers substituted for letters.
There is no way anyone who was really trying to change votes, or even smear another candidate, would write something like that to the voters of Wentworth. Troll farms are pretty sophisticated these days.
Another possibility: Some Cambridge Analytica type mob testing reactions to hone a message? The crudeness is a feature not a bug. Due to the ability to calibrate personality types, and their voting habits, by noting the reaction to the email at the electorate level, something will be learned about how to correctly target the next political message.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fears-of-a-dangerous-precedent-as-labour-hire-extends-to-medicare-20181024-p50bq7.html
lizzie @ #1360 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 5:51 pm
Parliament now closes for a a few weeks. So, is it going be politics or do we see some action?
Don’t believe what pollies say, believe what they actually do.
Raising expectations again like Banks has done is not worth a cracker.
That’s a remarkable turn-around from Katter. What happened to everything Anning said about race being pure gold?
Dio,
I thought that once the carbon tax was repealed in 2014, QANTAS faced a levy of between $50 and $100 AUD flying into EU airports, because we had no emissions control policy.
Does anyone else remember this. Is it still active?
So has the Government had as shitty a week this week as it had last week?
Thinking of Newspoll here.
Speaking of Newspoll, here is the updated Newspoll-Poll for Thursday
PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-28
PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.7 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 61
ALP / LNP
55 / 45 A different Michael
60 / 40 adrian
54 / 46 a r
57 / 43 ajm
57 / 43 Akubra
55 / 45 Al Pal
54 / 46 Asha Leu
54 / 46 Aunt Mavis
55 / 45 ausdavo
55 / 45 autocrat
54 / 46 bilko
54 / 46 BK
53 / 47 Boerwar
56 / 44 briefly
55 / 45 Burgey
53 / 47 C@tmomma
55 / 45 chinda63
53 / 47 Clem Attlee
53 / 47 Douglas and Milko
56 / 44 Fulvio Sammut
54 / 46 Gareth
57 / 43 Gecko
56 / 44 Golly
55 / 45 grimace
54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
54 / 46 imacca
53 / 47 It’s Time
54 / 46 jeffemu
54 / 46 jenauthor
54 / 46 John R
60 / 40 KayJay
54 / 46 Late Riser
55 / 45 lefty e
55 / 45 LongMemory82
52 / 48 Matt
54 / 46 Matt31
54 / 46 meher baba
55 / 45 Michael A
53 / 47 mikehilliard
53 / 47 Paddy O
54 / 46 pica
54 / 46 Player One
54 / 46 poroti
57 / 43 Puffytmd
54 / 46 Question
53 / 47 Robert Ball
53 / 47 SCOUT
52 / 48 Simon² Katich®
50 / 50 Sprocket_
54 / 46 Socrates
54 / 46 Sohar
53 / 47 steve davis
54 / 46 Steve777
54 / 46 The Silver Bodgie
54 / 46 Tricot
53 / 47 Tristo
54 / 46 Upnorth
53 / 47 Victoria
54 / 46 Whisper
55 / 45 Work To Rule
54 / 46 Yabba
If daS uberPotatoFurher Dutton can exersise ministerial discretion and let au pairs into the country the bastard should get off his arse and exercise that discretion to get kids and families off Nauru. FFS its not bloody rocket science. 🙁
It’s interesting that Dutton today has returned to two of his favourite themes – ungrateful refugees on Nauru (the ones sent to US) and ‘African gangs in Melbourne.
With parliament in recess, one might be excused for thinking he is making a play for RWNJ MP leadership, in a challenge to the authority of Morrison (but not a direct leadership challenge at this stage).
Dutton probably still feels aggrieved at the way Morrison skittled him in the recent leadership coup.
Politically (and obviously practically) the ALP have won the climate change debate….all the polls say so.
I don’t think the average punter knows what a NEG, Carbon price, emissions scheme or direct action is- but they have decided Labor is much better at doing something.
So I think the actual details of Lanbors policy now is politically pretty unimportant.
imacca @ #1368 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 5:29 pm
But if he does that, all the other kids will decide it’s time to jump on a dodgy boat and come to Australia. Think of the children! Real ones must suffer, so that hypothetical ones do not!
…or some nonsense of that sort seems to be the argument.
So the uneducated telling their fellow uneducated what they do not know
Bill Shorten and Labor have questions to answer
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-bloodbath-continues-australian-market-has-shed-163bn-in-october-20181025-p50bzd.html
To the best of my knowledge no Labor people have tried to point the finger at the Tories, who continue to talk up the economy.
I doubt a Tory opposition would be so kind if roles were reversed.
This is a case where Labor doesn’t really need to say anything. The media love to cover disasters in the stock market and people can see for themselves what is happening. Also the LNP has lost so much credibility that the mood of many would be to disregard what Morrison says – and in fact implicitly blame the government for what is happening.
“It’s interesting that Dutton today has returned to two of his favourite themes – ungrateful refugees on Nauru (the ones sent to US) and ‘African gangs in Melbourne.”
Just the usual racist dogwhistling we expect from that piece of slime. The refugees in the USA – there’s no reason to mention them. They are no longer his or Australia’s responsibility. All he wants to do here is cultivate hatred and anomisity towards those who are still unfortunate enough to still be so.
As for the African Gangs – Dutton, get stuffed. Hopefully the voters of Dickson will shut him up soon enough. In the meantime, we should call his interventions for what they are.
D&M
I thought of a Nigerian scammer as well.
The EU was going to bring the carbon emission penalty a few years ago on airlines from denialist countries. I dunno if they did it or not.
“Wall Street Lays An Egg” (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Lays_An_Egg). We’re probably not there yet but it is worrying. The crash of AMP by 25% in one day has got to be a worry. It’s share price history doesn’t inspire confidence: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-25/amp-to-sell-wealth-businesses-for-3.3bn-dollars/10427288.
Worrying is the wrong word, at least until after the U.S. midterms (or even the 2020 general). Until then it’s a positive, because it removes one of the only non-deplorable reasons a person might have for voting Trump/Republican.
Late Riser says:
Thursday, October 25, 2018 at 4:58 pm
__________
Nicholas @ #1299 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 3:42 pm
Older People Are Worse Than Young People at Telling Fact from Opinion
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/10/older-people-are-worse-than-young-people-at-telling-fact-from-opinion/573739/
This scientific finding comports with my personal experience of interacting with older folk and young folk.
______________________
_____________________
Late Riser:
Leaving aside your personal experiences, the article appears to blame “right-wing talk radio” and “24-hour cable channels ” with age as a correlation.
_______________
And it as scientific as my Aunt Daisy, bless her cotton socks.
What actually happened was that they found that older people who listen to shock jocks and use ’24 hour cable channels’ (whatever they may be) are less able to tell fact from opinion.
Frankly, I am not surprised in the least. You’d have to have trouble telling fact from opinion in order to listen to the shock jocks in the first place.
Does anyone with a good perspective know why the markets are turning up their toes atm?
Trump’s trade-war chickens have come home to roost. And with impeccable timing, too*. 🙂
* Not a good or informed perspective, but I believe it just the same.
Newspoll prediction…..after Wentworth saying eff you to the govt and the seat going to an Independent……..
57-43 ALP
ar
My layman theory has for some time been that at some stage a lot of 800lb Quantitative Easing chickens will come home to roost and it won’t be pretty.
citizen says:
Thursday, October 25, 2018 at 6:36 pm
Dutton probably still feels aggrieved at the way Morrison skittled him in the recent leadership coup.
____________________
Ya reckon?
🙂
So true. Labor put people in Nauru/Manus torture camps then turn away and go silent on the Liberals inhumane management of them.
Liberals and Labor have lost their right to govern in a majority. The time for independents is now.
Looks like we need to build a very large chicken coop!
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, October 25, 2018 at 7:36 pm
Liberals and Labor have lost their right to govern in a majority. The time for independents is now.
________________________
Rex, politics 101:
There are 150 Federal seats. The party with more than 75 seats has a majority and the right to govern.
Independents are still a side show.
Unless, of course, you are the present LNP Government.
I could almost be sorry for them, but I live by the maxim “take what you want, and pay for it”.
May they rot.
Can Banks really win a marginal seat as an independent? and especially a suburban marginal seat. What is the precedent for that? If she wins, can it mean anything other than the death of the Liberal Party?
(Someone will also make it mean something about the Labor party; all it could mean about the Labor party is that people who like conservative politics continue to see the Labor party as someone else’s party.)
My Newspoll guess
53/47
Lloyd Pope is the next super star leggie for Australia. Took 7 fer yesterday in the Shield. He’s 18!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1055373688776876033
i go for 55/45
GG
Let’s hope they don’t bugger him up!
C@t
There will be a bonanza crap harvest.
Rex Douglas @ #1385 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 6:36 pm
Because you know, Bob Katter is famous for his welcoming attitude towards asylum seekers and people in general. Just ask his former colleague, Fraser Anning!
GG
What’s your take on the latest red shirts saga and how News corp reported it today?
Interestingly I didn’t see channel 9 pick up on it today as is their usual play
@Millennial, what a strange response. Independents aren’t characterised by a shared and united view. If a person wants climate action, decent treatment of asylum seekers, and either relatively conservative economic policies or a non-partisan attitude, they have to vote for an independent. There’s no alternative at the moment. But that doesn’t mean they should vote for any independent. Let them judge wisely.
BK @ #1391 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 8:04 pm
His googly and flipper are pretty good. If he’s got a big turning leggie, then he’ll be the Red Terror of batsmen for years to come!
I’m going for 53/47 Because Media always kind to Frauds.
Also, I got a rejection from the Defense Force and was Classed as Class 4 Unfit (mainly due to my knee dislocation).
But already started an Appeal process.
“As for the African Gangs – Dutton, get stuffed.”
Hear, Hear.
@Late Riser, your numbers are too high. I expect it will be 47 again. Labor isn’t making much gain out of the Liberal’s mess and this week was much quieter than last week.
In Beazley and Latham’s days, we said that oppositions didn’t win elections; government lost them. That has never been truer than 2019. Labor has still not regained their trust after the 2007-2013 hash. Take a look at BludgerTrack historical if you don’t believe me. Surely Labor can win off such a low primary, but they are simply winning the competition of not being the Liberals.
(Labor can’t do anything about it at the moment. They stuffed up. They’ll be given another chance; only then can they win trust or lose it.)