The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53-47 – as usual, we must await the full report to see the primary votes. Other findings: Scott Morrison is credited with a 35% to 28% edge over Malcolm Turnbull, which he appears to owe to Coalition supporters falling in behind the incumbent; only 20% believe the leadership change has “refreshed” the government, with 59% saying it hasn’t; 26% support moving the embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, with 32% opposed; 56% say Australia is not doing enough to address climate change, with 23% saying it is; 63% express belief in anthropogenic climate change, compared with 25% favouring the alternative response attributing climate change to normal fluctuation. UPDATE: Full report here. No change whatsoever on the primary vote, with the Coalition on 38%, Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%.
Also:
• The Australian has published one of the occasional sets of Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and metropolitan-versus-regions, aggregated from multiple poll results over a period usually consisting of three months. This time though, the July-September quarter suffered the interruption of the leadership coup in late August. So results from the last three polls under Malcolm Turnbull were published shortly after the coup, and now the first four polls under Scott Morrison have been aggregated, with one more set presumably to follow at the end of the year. The two-party results show the Coalition doing three points worse than the late Turnbull period in New South Wales and Victoria, where Labor respectively leads by 54-46 and 57-43; four points worse in Queensland and Western Australia, both of which have Labor leading 54-46; and fully nine points worse in South Australia, where the Coalition led 51-49 last time, and Labor now leads 58-42. The Labor primary vote in South Australia is up fully 12%, from 28% from 40%, with “others” as well as the Coalition well down, perhaps reflecting the decline of Xenophonism. However, it should be noted the sample in the case of South Australia was only 478.
• New Matilda has results of a uComms/ReachTEL poll for GetUp! from Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, although it may be showing its age, having been conducted on September 13. The poll credits Abbott with a two-party lead of 54-46 over Labor, a swing of 7% – though in fact it was the Greens who made the final count in 2016, with a final two-party result much the same as it would have been against Labor. Perhaps more to the point, 52.6% of respondents said they would consider voting for an independent, although it was only 21.7% among Liberal voters. After allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the initially undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 41.7%, Labor 25.3%, Greens 12.7% and One Nation 4.4%. The kicker for Abbott is that 46.3% of respondents rated his performance very poor, and 10.3% the ordinary kind of poor, compared with 23.8% for very good and 10.4% for good, with a tellingly few 9.3% opting for average. The sample for the poll was 854.
• Counting in Wentworth continues, and will do so in steadily diminishing form until the end of next week. You can follow the action on the ongoing live count thread. For what it’s worth, Andrew Tillett of the Australian Financial Review quotes a Liberal source clinging to the hope that late postal votes arriving from Israel might yet yield a surprise. I had a fairly extensive look at the excitement that unfolded on Saturday and Sunday in a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday.
Simon Katich
See my reply regarding vacuum cleaners back at 12:11am on page 21.
GG
I watched all of Pope’s wickets.They were good stuff.
I’ve seen media reports posted here about the NSW Labor leader, but WTF is going on in the NSW Greens?
https://newmatilda.com/2018/10/25/leaked-australian-greens-issue-please-explain-letter-nsw-mp-jeremy-buckingham/
And New Matilda reporting on this has drawn a fury of angry Greens party members and supporters complaining about it (from the New Matilda email).
D&M
The email reminded me of similar material which went around the Chinese communities in the lead up the ME vote.
Cat
Refer 10:52AM
Markets are forward looking vehicles – you buy on potential
To deliver on that potential you look for stability in trading conditions such that opportunity can be maximised – the “reward” to investors being the share price increasing because of potential being delivered plus dividends funded by that delivery
What we see at present is a poor balance between markets and government – impacting on potential delivery and therefore sentiment
This poor balance is across a raft of outcomes from the Balance Sheet of the USA government where you would expect that the continuing steady economic recovery would be resulting in Budget repair but is not because of poor regulation and inequality witness the housing data released last night
That recovery is also seeing the Federal Reserve mitigating against inflation by increasing interest rates – and where dividends carry a premium to interest rates because of risk so competition for investor support so Bonds v equities
So cyclical is a transitioning from equities to Bonds which has not been a consideration since the GFC
Equities are risk
In the UK you have Brexit dragging on sentiment, in Germany you have an unstable Merkel Coalition compromised as it is to hold that Coalition together dragging on sentiment, Italy is just Italy, forever unstable and in Australia there is division and an absence of stability witness the debilitating impact of a lack of climate policy
The above just for starters
But they impact on risk and therefore sentiment with the ultimate results bring a cyclical exit from equity markets or sectors of equity markets (so the Energy and Financial Services sectors in Australia which are leading the falls and have Australia leading the falls post 31st August – due to poor regulation and poor regulation compliance which are the responsibility of government – so far from being absolved governments are critical therefore Stiglitz’s reference to better balance between Markets and government)
The current trend is cyclical – in 1987 the DJIA dropped 25% in one session
This is not the GFC
The question is where and when is buying opportunity – because those Listed Companies still have Capital and Reserves invested into business models, business models with potential to add value and remit dividends to investors
No doubt the aggregate of private debt and the impact on consumer spending noting also the increases in statutory costs including energy and flat wages growth as referred to successively over the term by the RBA Governor impact on potential in Australia currently – and on Share prices
So superimposed on Global impacts are the domestic circumstances in Australia
We will have to ride out the neo liberalism and right wing idealogy referred to by Stiglitz and Bernie Fraser and Michael Keating and Ross Gittens among other luminaries
And pick the buying opportunities including because in Australia the banking system is required to survive and service (as an example)
And, in Australia, interest rates are going nowhere in the immediate future until inflation reaches benchmark and wages increase in a meaningful way, exceeding inflation
Brief but a synopsis at least
And the drones have been put to bed so we are now in rough terrain in Australia
What a waste conflict and war are
Felix yes I’m wondering about the next Newspoll too. I’d be very surprised if I correctly predicted it a third time running given that polls supposedly have a couple of points of noise one way or the other. However Newspoll hasn’t been behaving like a pure randomly sampled poll in recent times. Its far too stable. Which leads one to suspect that their methodology has changed and they are actually smoothing it. Any smoothing must by its nature be backwards looking.
Its fair to say that the government didn’t exactly reach the same level of clusterfuck this week as it did last week, but the only real positive announcement was the electricity price fiddling which was too complex to understand and didn’t really get a lot of excitement. A lot of punters either never heard, didn’t understand or didn’t trust. In any case I think that a lot of day to day events don’t register in the minds of the average voter until they are reinforced on a week by week basis. That means polling tends to lag events. This certainly seems to be the case with major economic announcements. They don’t digest quickly.
If I were to base a prediction purely on Bludgertrack I’d pick 53. However Bludgertrack isn’t just Newspoll. Newspoll last time was 53 and the single biggest factor seems to be the shock of dumping Turnbull washing out. So one could predict 52 as being not unlikely. However, has the shock of ditching Turnbull washed out? Gut feeling? Mostly. Also we don’t know what kind of 53 the last result really was. Was the actual Newspoll result last time north of south of 53 before rounding?
All I can say is my head says 53 but my heart says 54. I think 52 is possible, but less likely than 54. Should I give in to my herd instinct?
Newspoll 53-47
The Mordor narrative – following a bruising 2 months in the job, culminating in the Coaliition’s narrow loss in the Wentworth by-election, PM Scott Morrison has an unexpected opportunity to steady the ship, as Australians move into the summer break and take a closer look at the most ideological and left-wing Labor Opposition in a generation….
They will probably pick Nathan Hauritz before they pick
Lloyd Pope.
Another miserable day’s batting in the Shield plus the great hope Pucovski is sick.
DJIA Futures are currently up near 1% – which is better than down
I left out Trump’s impact on trade because trade is always competition
And business does its business in a Global marketplace
Winners and losers as always so if it is not Trump it is capacity and currency and tariffs including exemptions
They will probably pick Nathan Hauritz before they pick
Lloyd Pope.
___
Many a true word spoken in jest!
max @ #1405 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 8:55 pm
Are you ‘Boris’, max? 😉
shellbell @ #1407 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 8:59 pm
Hannscombs not out. Burns made 64. Good news to come.
I notice Sean Marsh is in and set too. He might be a smoky for the next Test!
Good to see the KAP is still 100% Union:
On the latest count there’s no doubt whatsoever that Phelps is on her way to Canberra:
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-22844-152.htm
Not ONE government official told about the Jerusalem Gambit.
ScoMo is going this alone. If he pulls it off he’s in the future books of the future Bible (post-Apocalypse, Rapture edition) as one of the Blessed Prophets who brought about the Second Coming. Right up there with Donald Trump he’ll be.
Public servants do not need to be informed. Only God has a right to know. ScoMo’s on a mission from God.
Do not be surprised if he goes all the way with this one. Happy Clappers live for the End Times. Nothing else matters.
Bushfire Bill @ #1414 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 9:18 pm
Plenty of Libs praying for the end of time at the moment. So they can end their time with ScoMo.
Is this really our Prime Minister?
C@tmomma
The Kat in the Hat would have been schooled in real old school Labor, his dad was a wharfie. Old school had admirable as well as not so admirable parts.
Confessions @ #1416 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 9:28 pm
If Morrison was a musical instrument, he’d be a bufoon!
Confessions says:
Looks a pretty piss poor haka 🙂
When you start fake golfing at the despatch box in QT you know it’s all downhill from there.
I can’t help but recall those personal QT tirades from Keating against Howard in the lead up to the 1996 election. They play great with the Labor rusted-ons, but dispassionate and disengaged voters are turned off big time.
poroti @ #1417 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 9:31 pm
Yeah, well the announcement today by Katter is because Labor in Queensland took away support staff and Labor in Queensland were considering preferencing the Libs above Katter in Kennedy.
The reason to refrain from cutting taxation for wealthy people is to avoid increasing inequality of income and wealth. It’s a distribution issue. It is not a fiscal issue. Providing the tax cuts would not reduce the capacity of the federal government to increase spending on income support. There is such a vast amount of unused capacity in the economy – more than $60 billion on an annualized basis – that the government can massively increase its net addition to non-government wealth without causing inflation. It is incorrect to claim that cutting taxes for corporations and wealthy people results in less capacity to fund worthy initiatives.
Cat:
[Good to see the KAP is still 100% Union’]
Yes, he’s now the workers’ friend, and the fact that Labor was threatening to preference against him has bugger all to do with – not.
Anning’s dumping was all about this, and rumour has it that Kattter Jnr. may fill Anning’s boots.
The Adamson sisters of South Australia have done well. Frances former Ambassador to China and Christine, Supreme Court judge in NSW.
Golfing wasn’t the first activity that came to mind when I saw that third image of Morrison.
Aunt Mavis @ #1423 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 9:41 pm
Katter does not have the resources or spread to win a Senate seat.
Greensborough Growler
As someone said a long time ago “when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully”
What’s Morrison doing, swinging an air-baseball bat?
Well, who would’ve thought it – Morrison’s a swinger.
Anyone who uses the term “budget repair” disqualifies themselves from talking sensibly about federal fiscal capacity.
The federal government’s fiscal statement of expenditures and receipts cannot break down or get sick. It is simply a record of dollars spent into existence and dollars taxed out of existence.
Unemployment hurts people. Inadequate public infrastructure and public services hurts people. An inadequate material standard of living hurts people. Trashing the environment hurts people. Social exclusion hurts people. High levels of stress caused by unemployment or precarious employment hurt people.
In other words, it is the functional purposes served by fiscal policy that matter. Not the fiscal statement (fiscal statement is the technically correct term because the word “budget” brings up household connotations that are completely irrelevant to a currency-issuer with a floating exchange rate).
It is impossible for a government to borrow its own currency. When the central bank sells Commonwealth Government Securities in exchange for reserves, it is merely swapping one non-government sector asset for another. Reserves get converted into bonds of equivalent value. Bond issuance is a portfolio reshuffle for the non-government sector. It does not net add financial wealth to the non-government sector.
A related point is that it is impossible for a government to stockpile its own currency. A federal government surplus is not something that the government holds or that adds to the federal government’s capacities. It just names an amount of non-government financial wealth that has been deleted by taxation.
Labor can now preference Katter above the Coalition. Each seat the Coalition doesn’t win is a mini-victory, like Wentworth just now, reducing the number of Coalition seats by 1. Of course if there is an acceptable Independent or minor party candidate, preference them above Katter. But LNP last.
Good evening all,
The leaks continue from within the government or outside perhaps.
Morrison now ” accused ” of opposing the Turnbull reversal on raising the pension age to 70.
So much for unity.
When did Turnbull arrive back ?
Cheers and a great night to all.
https://www.lifehacker.com.au/2018/10/nbn-the-silent-train-wreck/
I hope the Liberal voters here feel some sense of shame.
There was no hidden agenda. No broken promise. Turnbull promised to waste tens of billions on broken technology, on a temporary network that would have to be scrapped and replaced at further cost – and that’s exactly what he delivered.
Not much of a back swing from scomo. Too much bend of the left arm, needs to be straighter, let the right arm fold then cock the wrists.
Morrison just needs to go the number ones all round his melon.
He’s at the stage where he looks like ridiculous with the bald pate up top and the frontal tufts.
Bye bye LNP. Even the CPG now agree.
Six more months of frothy Morrison trying to be an everyman PM.
The captain’s picks, the QT histrionics, the stock phrases, the lapel pins and baseball hats, the hiz viz vests, the babies in shopping centres, oh and the photo-ops with tradies, truckies.
The fireside youtube chats.
The everyman that everyone despises.
All in a desperate effort to connect, somehow, with anyone.
Because no one is listening anymore.
Felix, @8:24
If you’re still around, they’re not my numbers I’m just keeping score. But when you say you expect 47 again, do you mean 53/47 to Labor?
Steve777 @ #1432 Thursday, October 25th, 2018 – 8:51 pm
PHON last. LNP second-last. Unless more racist and/or Nazi crazies show up.
Rossmore:
I agree. The frothing by Murdoch and Sky-After-Dark mob are further indication the jig is up.
I suppose that recently ‘exed’ Prime Ministers write their memoirs to say what they couldn’t while in office. Presumably they do this to explain some of the less popular things that were done and to ‘set the record straight’ with opponents. So I was idly speculating when Malcolm might release a tome of his own and thought to do a quick search if this had been reported on. I was hoping for sometime in February 2019.
I didn’t find anything like that but did find something else. IMDb, which typically has information on entertainment and celebrities, has an entry for Malcolm Turnbull. Who knew? So belatedly, this is the link to some quotes by our most recent ex-PM. (Incidentally, there is nothing of Scott Morrison.)
Malcom Turnbull:
https://www.imdb.com/name/nm4216229/bio#quotes
Not political, but a genuine Aussie character, full of sass and irreverence. The boy from Queanbeyan: George Lazenby.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6UXqm64bswg
They are from Queensland and here to help….
NATIONALS party president Larry Anthony has met with agitated MPs in Canberra to convince them not to roll Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, even personally appealing to Barnaby Joyce and his supporters.
Mr Anthony today flew in from Brisbane with the LNP campaign director Lincoln Folo to share polling and rally the troops to show Prime Minister Scott Morrison was having cut-through in LNP seats.
Mr Anthony held private one-on-one talks with MPs, some who have become increasingly concerned about Mr McCormack’s leadership.
The Courier-Mail understands that even though Mr Anthony the meetings were directly to quell leadership concerns, in some meetings pointed conversations were held with MPs.
Federal National Party president Larry Anthony has desperately trying to quash a leadership spill. Picture: Kym Smith
It is understood a spill is growing more likely, and as soon as November, even though Mr Joyce is not corralling support, there are MPs who are sounding him out about making the move.
It comes as some Nationals MPs privately questioned whether Queensland had been dudded by Mr McCormack and his office after revelations made by The Courier-Mail yesterday.
It was revealed a federal decision to give Queensland farmers a multimillion-dollar export deal and Brisbane passengers cheaper international flights was overridden after intense lobbying from Qantas, whose former senior staff member is now the chief-of-staff to the Deputy Prime Minister.
Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack is under fire from agitated MPs. Picture: AAP/Mick Tsikas
The decision by Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack to accede to Qantas’s concerns about competitor Qatar Airways has shocked some of his own staff especially given it had been given the go ahead by former transport minister Darren Chester in 2017.
Mr McCormack put the deal on ice. The decision was made after he hired Damian Callachor, Qantas’s former head of industry affairs, part of Qantas’s government relations team.
But Mr McCormack’s office said the decision was made in accordance with procedure, and said that the office included an aviation policy adviser, separate to Mr Callachor.
Former National Party leader Barnaby Joyce. Picture: AAP/Mick Tsikas
It is believed a decision could be made soon on the Qatar deal but it is likely it will not be in the same form as what Mr Chester ticked off on. Qatar can still not fly into Queensland.
Queensland Tourism Minister Kate Jones told The Courier-Mail yesterday the development was concerning.
“It’s concerning to me that the most recent advice I had was that everything was on track to give the green light to Qatar,’’ Ms Jones said.
“Qatar currently flies into every other major capital city in Australia. For us, this is about Brisbane increase direct flights to Queensland. We know that more planes with more visitors means jobs for Queenslanders.”
Vic Labor on the up in Prahran, Greens and Libs down.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-on-track-to-ride-to-victory-in-prahran-after-bike-lane-pledge-20181023-p50bgj.html
By the way, the picture in the Age article about Prahran looks like it was taken about 20+ years ago. Fairfax really is in a sorry state.
Heard a snippet on the ABC (speaking to a Qld journalist) that Palmer’s United Australia Party has put out pamphlets claiming the party had three former Prime Ministers amongst its illustrious ranks, Menzies , Hughes and Lyons.
Of course they were members of the UAP which folded in 1945!
Queenslanders might believe it ….
PCC yeah my theory is that it’s smoothed, but (just like Mark the Ballot and Kevin Bonham) they introduced a discontinuity when there’s an election or the PM gets knifed, so that’s why it rapidly plummeted to 44 and then it’s been 44, 46, 47 as the data comes in. The decrease in jump should mean it’s settling into the new baseline. And so I predict the 2018 Scomo baseline will be the 2017 baseline: 47 with some deviation around that.
Whether he’s got more upside or more downside after the summer holidays, that depends on whether Scott can learn the reins. Governing the Liberal party nowadays seems more like herding cats than driving that Western Sydney stagecoach we were promised a few pages ago.
Fulvio Sammut
That is actually very funny. I remember Antony a Green making some suitable pithy comment on a previous UAP “reincarnation”.
Here in Victoria we see the spectre of the ‘reincarnated’ DLP (after they voted themselves out of existence in 1978) promoting themselves as ‘Labour DLP’. Maybe they should go the whole hog and rebrand themselves as the Labour Democratic Party – it worked for David Leyonhjelm after all!
Upnorth
The Nationals really are going to roll McCormack and reinstate Joyce! This will cause ructions in the Coalition, ute more importantly it I think it will make a lot of National seats winnable by Labor or local independents. For a strong independent candidate in a safe National seat the Labor can’t win a return of the Barnaby Circus would be manna from heaven!
20 years ago with a 40 zone and a wide painted median? I mean the photo probably wasn’t taken yesterday, but the Australian fleet is old.