Not the Wentworth by-election thread

Some preselection news, and a thread for discussion of political matters not directly related to the Wentworth by-election count.

For discussion focused on the count for the Wentworth by-election, which turns out not to have been as over as you thought it was last night, the live results thread is still in action. For general political discussion, I offer the following post, with my usual semi-regular updates of preselection news.

• Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports a New South Wales Liberal Senate preselection next month is a three-way contest between Jim Molan, Andrew Bragg and Hollie Hughes. Molan found a place in the Senate last December by the grace of Section 44, after securing only the unwinnable seventh position on the Coalition ticket at the 2016 double dissolution, to the chagrin of conservatives including Tony Abbott. Then followed the disqualification of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, followed by the determination that the sixth candidate on the ticket, the aforesaid Hollie Hughes, was likewise ineligible due to a position she had taken on the Administrative Affairs Tribunal. Now it appears Molan is primed to take top spot, and since the third position is reserved for the Nationals, this leaves two and four to be fought out between Bragg, whose decision to withdraw himself from consideration for preselection in Wentworth is now looking pretty good, and Hughes, whose Section 44 complication is behind her.

• The Port Macquarie News reports three candidates have nominated to succeed retiring Luke Hartsuyker as Nationals candidate for Cowper: Patrick Conaghan, a former police officer and North Sydney councillor who now works locally as a solicitor; Chris Genders, a newsagent; and Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business.

• The Burnie Advocate reports Gavin Pearce, who has been described as a “farmer and ex-defence force member”, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Braddon ahead of “Devonport business identity Stacey Sheehan and property developer Kent Townsend”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,550 comments on “Not the Wentworth by-election thread”

Comments Page 22 of 31
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  2. Ben Eltham:

    https://newmatilda.com/2018/10/22/australia-real-winner-wentworth-election-ben-eltham/

    Only in a system where major parties own safe seats as virtual chattels could the quality of challenging independents be considered irrelevant. In a two-party system, the tyranny of the safe seat has done untold damage to Australian democracy. For voters unlucky enough to live in one, a safe seat has often meant substandard representation. Mediocre candidates are parachuted in by cynical party machines. Local issues are ignored. Constituents are treated merely as stepping stones to higher office. Sometimes a protest vote would be lodged, but it was never enough to unseat the rusted-on local member.
    ::::
    The major parties have been written off many times before. But five prime ministers in five years has opened a gaping wound in the public’s trust in politics-as-usual. We may not be experiencing an earthquake just yet, as the Guardian’s Katharine Murphy argues, but we are certainly seeing further erosion of the two-party status quo.

    And that’s a good thing for democracy.

  3. Rex Douglas @ #1047 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 10:08 am

    ratsak @ #1031 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 1:57 pm

    If you want to get good at something you never pass up the opportunity for practice.

    A lesson you have taken to heart with your Kill Bill snorefest Rexy old mate.

    I’ve only ever acknowledged the poor personal standing of Shorten with voters – a fact that Labor partisans resist.

    Which highlights how irrelevant these comments are.

  5. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 2:06 pm
    Urban Dictionary: QFT
    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=QFT
    QUOTED FOR TRUTH Used on internet forums when quoting someone with similar views as yours.

    ______________

    Thanks C@t.

    But if it is someone with similar views to your own, how does that have anything (necessarily) to do with truth?

    I could be a young lib on a young libs forum, quoting someone with similar views to my own, how does that have anything necessarily to do with truth?

    I feel there is something I am missing here.

  6. c@t: “Not too sure about that, mb. The Sydney Jewish community has a lot of Progressive Jews within it. Like Leeser himself! We also had family friends, the Goldbergs, whose father was a Life Member of the ALP.”

    He might not be a conservative orthodox Jew, but Leeser announced publicly that he was voting no for SSM. And he’s a strong free market type (not that there’s anything wrong with that IMO).

    Re the Goldbergs: you don’t mean the ones from out Beecroft way by any chance?

  7. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 1:59 pm
    Could always sieze all Church property and turn that into a museum.
    _________________________
    Now you are talking my language. I one thing that makes me irate is that these pedo priests are looked after by the church once they get out of jail. Houses, cars, money for bills etc etc. Surely there could have been some legislation that could have stopped this. I assume this is tax exempt money being spent on these crims too. insane.

  8. “I’ve only ever acknowledged the poor personal standing of Shorten with voters”

    I had forgotten you had outlined the Shorten polling and compared it to Rudd in opposition and to Howard before him, and it all illustrated that Shorten was doing much much worse.

    Could you link that analysis for me again.

  10. “Houses, cars, money for bills etc etc. Surely there could have been some legislation that could have stopped this. I assume this is tax exempt money being spent on these crims too. insane.”

    You would prefer, I assume, direct taxpayer dollars fund them on release? Odd position to take.

  11. It’s sad when people stop trying to improve themselves.

    Now now, you can, through practice and hard work, even become better at being tedious. We should acknowledge and congratulate the achievement of some of our friends here. It hasn’t been achieved without superhuman efforts.

  12. Rex Douglas
    says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 2:11 pm
    I think I’ll trace it back to Abbott’s destructive conduct.

    Did Abbott block his own budget in 2014? To the relief of most of the electorate?

  13. WeWantPaul
    You would prefer, I assume, direct taxpayer dollars fund them on release? Odd position to take.
    _______________________________
    I would prefer them to be on Newstart than drive brand new cars and live in pretty nice houses on tax exempt money. Absolutely.

    Personally I would like to drop them in a volcano, but we can’t be doing that can we.

  14. don @ #1053 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 1:11 pm

    I could be a young lib on a young libs forum, quoting someone with similar views to my own, how does that have anything necessarily to do with truth?

    Because it’s ‘truth’ in the sense of ‘what I see as true’. It’s basically saying “I agree with this”, while also 1) amplifying the quoted viewpoint by reiterating it verbatim (which in online discussions, sends it back to the top of the thread for everyone to see again), and 2) avoiding the effort of typing an original post with fundamentally the same message as the one you’re agreeing with. Like a lazy way of making some noise.

  15. meher baba @ #1051 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 2:08 pm

    Rex: “Or alternatively you could look at AWU/SDA modus operandi of boosting their union numbers/subs with more employees on lower wages as a purely self-centred power trip at the expense of better wages for their members.”

    I guess it depends on what you consider to be the principal goal of a trade union: (a) maximise the wealth of an exclusive group of current members, or (b) take a broader approach trying to maximise opportunities for all people (be they members or non-members) working in a particular sector.

    I have had quite a few dealings with militant unions over the years and it always gave me the feeling that I had landed as far away as possible from the new and vibrant parts of the economy. With the exception of the mining industry, the workers they represent are typically employed in industries which enjoy a high level of government subsidisation or protection (or, in the case of construction, are often working on projects that are entirely government-funded).

    The union leaders and their members are often nice and well-meaning people, but I always felt like I was going back to the 1950s. It doesn’t feel to me like a world with much of a long-term future.

    I’ve always rolled my eyes at anti-unionists using the term ‘militant’. Such a provocative term.

    Sadly, the big super-unions these days have morphed into beasts more interested in political power than their members wages and conditions.

  16. nath @ #1059 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 2:12 pm

    Cud Chewer
    says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 1:59 pm
    Could always sieze all Church property and turn that into a museum.
    _________________________
    Now you are talking my language. I one thing that makes me irate is that these pedo priests are looked after by the church once they get out of jail. Houses, cars, money for bills etc etc. Surely there could have been some legislation that could have stopped this. I assume this is tax exempt money being spent on these crims too. insane.

    It’s organised crime protected at the highest levels of Govt.

  17. I don’t think the Government will be disappointed.

    Question time has been cancelled.
    I believe it is at the request of survivor groups

    the Guardian blog

  20. Well, after further catching up on the last few pages I see that the jump the gun responses of C@t and Confessions to the proposed museum (and more) was honey for the bees as far as the InGroupEchoChamber goes. So much support for their original posts.

    So many sycophants joining in the criticism without having the faintest idea about the what, when, how, where n why of it all.

  21. AR:

    Because it’s ‘truth’ in the sense of ‘what I see as true’. It’s basically saying “I agree with this”, while also 1) amplifying the quoted viewpoint by reiterating it verbatim (which in online discussions, sends it back to the top of the thread for everyone to see again), and 2) avoiding the effort of typing an original post with fundamentally the same message as the one you’re agreeing with. Like a lazy way of making some noise.
    ____________________

    Thanks AR. If I understand you correctly, it does not necessarily have anything whatsoever to do with truth. Just that you have found somebody else to agree with your viewpoint.

  22. “Personally I would like to drop them in a volcano, but we can’t be doing that can we.”

    We are fresh out of volcanos, so probably it would be practically difficult. You are I take it a retribution and punishment type person, rather than a criminal justice type person. Saudi Arabia is great for people like you, you’d love it. Send me the GoFundMe link, I’ll kick off your relocation.

  23. Watcha @ #1070 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 10:24 am

    Well, after further catching up on the last few pages I see that the jump the gun responses of C@t and Confessions to the proposed museum (and more) was honey for the bees as far as the InGroupEchoChamber goes. So much support for their original posts.

    So many sycophants joining in the criticism without having the faintest idea about the what, when, how, where n why of it all.

    And it was all one way?

  24. RD: “I’ve always rolled my eyes at anti-unionists using the term ‘militant’. Such a provocative term.”

    I’m certainly not an anti-unionist, if that’s what you’re implying.

    In my experience, “militant” is a pretty commonly-used term within the union movement and the ALP, sometimes by the militant unions themselves.

  25. Watcha

    The criticism is valid. Its the whole reason Bill Shorten emphasised in his speech action needs to be taken to implement all the recommendations.

  26. Shorten, on the other hand, stood up for what Labor had achieved in government, and didn’t roll over.

    Precisely. Even Gittens fell for the lock up spin and gave the 2014 budget and early pass mark on the day. The media was all on board for the con.

    Then Bill stood up and ripped Hockey a new arsehole. He, Abbott and the shitshow of a government government never recovered. If not for the months of the Trumble Delusion, we’d have been shot of these fools two years ago.

    Don’t underestimate the importance of Bill getting up and simply calling these dopes out when they still had credit in the bank. History could easily have been different if he’d stuffed it up.

  28. WeWantPaul
    We are fresh out of volcanos, so probably it would be practically difficult. You are I take it a retribution and punishment type person, rather than a criminal justice type person. Saudi Arabia is great for people like you, you’d love it. Send me the GoFundMe link, I’ll kick off your relocation.

    ___________________________

    I’m all for criminal justice for most.

    The pedos and rapists I class with the serial killers that should never be released.

  29. ratsak @ #1078 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 2:26 pm

    Shorten, on the other hand, stood up for what Labor had achieved in government, and didn’t roll over.

    Precisely. Even Gittens tell for the lock up spin and gave the 2014 budget and early pass mark on the day. The media was all on board for the con.

    Then Bill stood up and ripped Hockey a new arsehole. He, Abbott and the shitshow of a government government never recovered. If not for the months of the Trumble Delusion, we’d have been shot of these fools two years ago.

    Don’t underestimate the importance of Bill getting up and simply calling these dopes out when they still had credit in the bank. History could easily have been different if he’d stuffed it up.

    I get that Saint Bill is the shining light here but perhaps you might give the people some credit for rejecting the Abbott offerings themselves.

  32. Asha Leu says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 2:24 pm
    Don:

    Its just a figure of speech.

    Basically, “I think this is true, so much so that it deserves to be repeated.”

    _____________

    Thanks, I had the wrong end of the stick. You are not saying that your quote is true, just that you think someone else’s quote is true, therefore you are repeating it.

    What an odd expression.

  35. Katharine Murphy post-Wenthworth:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/20/the-wentworth-byelection-isnt-just-a-loss-for-the-liberals-its-a-disaster

    The people outside the Intercontinental had just voted against crude partisanship, and talking-point pugnaciousness, and the endless fighting about nothing, and embraced something else, embraced anything but that.

    Unless Morrison regains consciousness quickly and works out that’s what’s happening – that the Australian people are increasingly intent on taking politics into their own hands, and reshaping it – then the swing we saw on Saturday night won’t be the last of his humiliations. It will just be the beginning.

    The rise of the independents isn’t just a problem for the Liberals. Representatives connected to their communities, with a will to serve them, can take seats away from Labor too, and from the Nationals. This is a major party problem, not just an affliction confined to a government that has forgotten how to be competent.

    There’s an earthquake going on in Australian politics. So far it’s just a rumble, but if the incumbents don’t hear the rumble, and start to change things up, make no mistake: the rumble will become a roar.

    The scales are falling from the eyes of an increasing number of voters as they awaken to what the reality of the political duopoly means and, how the maintenance of the status quo or business as usual just doesn’t serve the short-term or long-term interests of the Australia.

  36. ratsak,

    It’s weird how some people refuse to credit Shorten for anything. This government has been forced to do so many things they didn’t want to, because the opposition, of which Shorten is a cornerstone, have been so bloody effective.

    Do people think everything would have turned out the same if Labor had been as timid as they were after Howard got elected? It’s fanciful nonsense.

  37. Pegasus @ #1087 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 2:31 pm

    Katharine Murphy post-Wenthworth:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/20/the-wentworth-byelection-isnt-just-a-loss-for-the-liberals-its-a-disaster

    The people outside the Intercontinental had just voted against crude partisanship, and talking-point pugnaciousness, and the endless fighting about nothing, and embraced something else, embraced anything but that.

    Unless Morrison regains consciousness quickly and works out that’s what’s happening – that the Australian people are increasingly intent on taking politics into their own hands, and reshaping it – then the swing we saw on Saturday night won’t be the last of his humiliations. It will just be the beginning.

    The rise of the independents isn’t just a problem for the Liberals. Representatives connected to their communities, with a will to serve them, can take seats away from Labor too, and from the Nationals. This is a major party problem, not just an affliction confined to a government that has forgotten how to be competent.

    There’s an earthquake going on in Australian politics. So far it’s just a rumble, but if the incumbents don’t hear the rumble, and start to change things up, make no mistake: the rumble will become a roar.

    The scales are falling from the eyes of an increasing number of voters as they awaken to what the reality of the political duopoly means and, how the maintenance of the status quo or business as usual just doesn’t serve the short-term or long-term interests of the Australia.

    Why would any clear-eyed Australian vote for Liberal or Labor given their recent historical conduct ?

  38. Having watched the Apology and presentation of the paper version to survivors in the great hall, no doubt that apart from the survivors, the most popular and respected attendee was Ms Gillard. And rightly so.

    Just as Keating is far more respected in his post-parliament years than when he was in office (except for an insightful minority) Ms Gillard’s great qualities are gaining more widespread support since she left parliament.

    I am sure Mr Shorten’s qualities and competencies which are not so popular now, will similarly be held in significantly higher esteem as the years go by and after he has opportunity to strut his stuff as PM.

  39. BW: “How is Jacinda going?
    Reality biting?”

    Given the magnificent set of chompers she’s got on her, my expectation would be Jacinda 1, Reality 0.

  44. Rex Douglas
    says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 2:30 pm
    ratsak @ #1078 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 2:26 pm
    I get that Saint Bill is the shining light here but perhaps you might give the people some credit for rejecting the Abbott offerings themselves.

    Rex! Do I detect some grudging respect???

    As ratsak said, the media had just rolled out the ‘we can’t live beyond our means’ bullshit and expected the budget would be passed in full.

    Here we are a few years later and the government are telling us the economy is going gang-busters, despite much of the 2014 budget sitting in the bin.

  47. Good that they cancelled question time – listening to Morrison shouting incoherently after the speeches earlier would be too much to take.

    Note to Nath/Rex

    If you had watched the speeches, you would have noted that Shorten appeared to be speaking from having consulted with/listened to victims. Morrison’s speech, though a good one, was greeted by silence. Shorten’s speech, more empathetic in character, and more emotionally charged (which I guess he could afford to be when Morrison was at great pains to sound Prime Ministerial) got a rousing applause.

    Also, at the after-presentation … Shorten got a standing ovation while (am probably showing my anti churchyness here) Morrison with his hand-holding speech (and I am not saying these things weren’t valid actions) reminded me of a church service and made me squirm a little, despite the good intentions/content.

    All that said – biggest applause was for Gillard … deservedly so.

  48. Pegasus @ #1085 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 10:31 am

    Katharine Murphy post-Wenthworth:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/20/the-wentworth-byelection-isnt-just-a-loss-for-the-liberals-its-a-disaster

    The people outside the Intercontinental had just voted against crude partisanship, and talking-point pugnaciousness, and the endless fighting about nothing, and embraced something else, embraced anything but that.

    Unless Morrison regains consciousness quickly and works out that’s what’s happening – that the Australian people are increasingly intent on taking politics into their own hands, and reshaping it – then the swing we saw on Saturday night won’t be the last of his humiliations. It will just be the beginning.

    The rise of the independents isn’t just a problem for the Liberals. Representatives connected to their communities, with a will to serve them, can take seats away from Labor too, and from the Nationals. This is a major party problem, not just an affliction confined to a government that has forgotten how to be competent.

    There’s an earthquake going on in Australian politics. So far it’s just a rumble, but if the incumbents don’t hear the rumble, and start to change things up, make no mistake: the rumble will become a roar.

    The scales are falling from the eyes of an increasing number of voters as they awaken to what the reality of the political duopoly means and, how the maintenance of the status quo or business as usual just doesn’t serve the short-term or long-term interests of the Australia.

    So far we have seen the rejection of the Government by conservative electorates, this doesn’t seem to be playing out in Labor seats.

    The Greens failed in Bateman and failed to make any impression in the WA seats even with the Liberals not contesting.

  49. Murphy has never really had the ability to lay blame fairly and squarely with the libs. It’s always the political class, or both parties or the like . She hasn’t got over the demise of Mal after all that hard work of #albomadeaspeech.

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