For discussion focused on the count for the Wentworth by-election, which turns out not to have been as over as you thought it was last night, the live results thread is still in action. For general political discussion, I offer the following post, with my usual semi-regular updates of preselection news.
• Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports a New South Wales Liberal Senate preselection next month is a three-way contest between Jim Molan, Andrew Bragg and Hollie Hughes. Molan found a place in the Senate last December by the grace of Section 44, after securing only the unwinnable seventh position on the Coalition ticket at the 2016 double dissolution, to the chagrin of conservatives including Tony Abbott. Then followed the disqualification of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, followed by the determination that the sixth candidate on the ticket, the aforesaid Hollie Hughes, was likewise ineligible due to a position she had taken on the Administrative Affairs Tribunal. Now it appears Molan is primed to take top spot, and since the third position is reserved for the Nationals, this leaves two and four to be fought out between Bragg, whose decision to withdraw himself from consideration for preselection in Wentworth is now looking pretty good, and Hughes, whose Section 44 complication is behind her.
• The Port Macquarie News reports three candidates have nominated to succeed retiring Luke Hartsuyker as Nationals candidate for Cowper: Patrick Conaghan, a former police officer and North Sydney councillor who now works locally as a solicitor; Chris Genders, a newsagent; and Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business.
• The Burnie Advocate reports Gavin Pearce, who has been described as a “farmer and ex-defence force member”, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Braddon ahead of “Devonport business identity Stacey Sheehan and property developer Kent Townsend”.
Asha
I’ve thought that for some time, but hesitated to say so here, just because…
Vogon, precisely.
The Goldbergs. Some one say the Goldbergs?
(1954, New York – the beginning of television, and ‘sponsored by’ had got nothing on this; these guys wrote the book. The first few minutes should suffice, unless you want some charming and very Jewish domesticity.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kuG8VNSzH8
The Guardian:
I understand that when the date was first set for the apology, the request to cancel question time from survivors was originally denied. That is not unusual – it is considered a lynchpin of the Westminster system.
But after the emotion of the day, and having spoken to survivors for who today, and the bipartisanship meant everything, it was agreed the usual hour of theatrics would be put off until tomorrow.
Pegasus @ #1099 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 10:45 am
I was highlighting the lack of threat to Labor at the moment. 🙂
I would like to have Jimmy Morrison hair. I could do that once, but these days my hair just isn’t up for it.
Speaking of which. Have you seen the locks KB used to be able to sprout? Very impressive, but now lost to time 🙂 EDIT: Or perhaps that should be 🙁
Vogon
Do you actually believe that the ALP is in no way affected by the development of the “ political class” ?
steve davis
I see, good call.
Abbott is the cause of the Coalition Govt implosion just as Rudd was the cause of the Labor Govt implosion.
It’s only the partisans that heap praise on Abbott for his ‘win’ and Shorten for his upcoming ‘win’.
jenauthor
If you had watched the speeches, you would have noted that Shorten appeared to be speaking from having consulted with/listened to victims. Morrison’s speech, though a good one, was greeted by silence. Shorten’s speech, more empathetic in character, and more emotionally charged (which I guess he could afford to be when Morrison was at great pains to sound Prime Ministerial) got a rousing applause.
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Shorten has been producing the humble and empathetic routine for a while now. Gillard pops into town for some applause. While she is in Australia she should visit a few single mums on Newstart and see how they are coping. A single mother on Newstart with say a ten and twelve year old is probably doing it pretty tough I’d imagine.
Rex Douglas @ #1108 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 10:50 am
Abbott’s not the cause, the cause is RWFW ideology trying to gain dominance in the Party.
That is completely different to the personality issues that caused Labor’s strife.
Swampy, don’t understand what point you’re trying to make. Mine is that Murphy consistently blames the political class when usually it’s a 100% Liberal failure.
Yes BiGD,
Murphy was pretending the problem was also current for the ALP. There is no evidence that independents are currently lining up to take a bunch of ALP seats.
Bob Katter is insisting that we all need guns “to protect ourselves”.
See 4 corners.
Protect ourselves from people asking too many questions about our Lebanese grandfathers?
Abbott (and Credlin) can absolutely take credit for it. He was a shameless idiot on climate change, but it was his ability to prosecute his stance, and Rudd’s inability to fight for his, that got Abbott into government.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Former CA royal commissioner Peter McClellan would make an ideal and formidable Governor-General. How could anything negative be said about this outstanding man?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/20/the-wentworth-byelection-isnt-just-a-loss-for-the-liberals-its-a-disaster
“Unless Morrison regains consciousness quickly and works out that’s what’s happening – that the Australian people are increasingly intent on taking politics into their own hands, and reshaping it – then the swing we saw on Saturday night won’t be the last of his humiliations. It will just be the beginning. The rise of the independents isn’t just a problem for the Liberals. Representatives connected to their communities, with a will to serve them, can take seats away from Labor too, and from the Nationals. This is a major party problem, not just an affliction confined to a government that has forgotten how to be competent. There’s an earthquake going on in Australian politics. So far it’s just a rumble, but if the incumbents don’t hear the rumble, and start to change things up, make no mistake: the rumble will become a roar.”
Smurfaroo is onto something here IMO, but I think it will remain mainly a problem for the Libs, unless we get a clear left-leaning majority in the Senate that enables Labor to push through some of its sillier wealth redistribution tax measures. But, as things stand, I reckon the Senate will be Labor’s friend and circumvent all Labor’s attacks on self-funded retirees, property investors, etc.
I read the result in Wentworth in the same way that I have read many of the major political events since the mid-2000s: the popularity of Rudd, the electorate’s harsh judgment on R-G-R in 2013, the rapid fall in the popularity of the Abbott Government after the 2014 budget, the popularity of Turnbull, etc.
It’s been pretty clear for a long time what the majority of the Australian electorate wants. They want politicians and political parties that can provide moderate, intelligent, honest and stable leadership. They’ll listen to anyone who is prepared to step forward and offer this, but – as Abbott quickly found – if they fail to deliver on what they promise, the electorate will be unforgiving in its judgement.
The majority of voters have no interest in ideology of either the far left or far right variety. Rudd and Turnbull presented as atypical politicians: they came across as smart technocrats prepared to focus on pragmatic problem-solving rather than achieving political goals set in concrete. Hence their popularity. To the extent that the major parties can’t deliver this sort of leadership, the electorate will look towards independents.
While I would suggest that ScoMo and Shorten are equally matched in terms of not being particularly good at projecting the sort of leadership the electorate are looking for, it’s the Libs and ScoMo who have the big problem right now. And that’s because the process through which Turnbull was removed stripped back the veneer and revealed for all to see the appalling ideological infestation which is destroying the Coalition parties from within. And, as we’ve seen in the response of the Sky After Dark team and the Nick Caters of this world, the ideologists are determined to press on and take absolutely no heed of the Wentworth result (indeed, to draw precisely the wrong conclusions from it).
There now seem to be a half dozen or so current Coalition members (some already deselected) who would stand a good chance of holding their seats if they run as independents. If a few of them do, it’s going to get really ugly really fast.
Question @ #1112 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 10:55 am
I don’t think she was, I think her point was about more centrist independents being a potential threat to both Parties, but at the moment it’s the Government that really needs to worry about it.
BiGD,
I think independents are always a threat in the safe seats of parties on the nose, and to some degree always have been. Such as Ted Mack.
This image says plenty about today.
All of this ‘both majors are on the nose’ messaging from the msm – something you’d think people would subject to some analysis, rather than blindly accepting – ignores the fact that Labor (i) hasn’t lost a single by election in this period; (ii) hasn’t lost a seat to an indie; and (iii) is improving its primary vote.
Question @ #1119 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 11:08 am
Yep, and that’s pretty much her point.
Has Labor lost a seat bar Denison and Wills to an independent in the last 40 years?
The Libs have lost more in the last five years and that’s before you get to the Nats.
BiGD,
I’m concerned this could become a bit semantic. But this section of the article suggests that Murphy thinks its a new phenomenon. To me anyway…
Q,
In this current environment, you should avoid being anti-Semantic.
Very good GG 😀
Question @ #1124 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 11:18 am
I see her as saying the conditions for it to happen are are more prevalent today with a larger unaligned/undecided vote in electorates so they don’t have to move so many to be in with a chance.
And if it’s not a new phenomenon, and it’s meant to be a message that the government needs to start listening, then why mention Labor?
Very pleased that my criticism of the Guardian for failing to list Ian Thorpe’s partner in captioning a photo of the pair with the GG, his wife and the royal pair at Government House was acknowledged and corrected.
I recall Hon. Michael Kirby’s farewell speech when he retired from the High Court highlighting that his partner of over 40 years was often erased from being mentioned at official or other functions despite others partners, married or not, being listed when they were opposite sex partners.
It really should not have to be corrected in this day and age but kudos to the Guardian for taking it on board.
Watcha @ #1068 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 2:24 pm
And you’re still a sanctimonious windbag. 🙂
BK @ #1119 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 3:09 pm
She’s a saint. A giant among men and women of the world.
The drift of voters away from the major parties isn’t new. It’s been happening since at least the 1970s, when Labor and the Coalition were expected to get more than 95% of the primary votes between them.
In 1975, when Labor got murdered, they received nearly 43% of the primary vote. Now they are hoping to do the murdering with less than 38%.
It’s a long-term trend which is showing no sign of turning around. And if it doesn’t turn around, sooner or later something is going to give.
BiGD,
OK, I think journalists have a habit of hyperventilating about the present. But I can accept that.
This one on Wentworth has to be the best Hitler parody EVER!
https://www.captiongenerator.com/1142752/Wentworth-Downfall
nath @ #1108 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 2:50 pm
And the Arsehole of the Day award goes to, this guy.
He doesn’t have a generous bone in his body. But what Liberal stooge does?
Cat
She was treat like complete shit by the MSM and others alike when she was PM for 3 years.They should be ashamed of themselves.
Our thoughtful AFP 🙂
.
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The Australian Federal Police tipped off Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s office two days before raiding his department as part of an investigation into leaks concerning au pair visas…………………………………………He said the minister’s office was informed ahead of the October 11 as a courtesy so it wouldn’t be a surprise.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/oct/22/politics-live-wentworth-australia-coalition-labor#comments
This recently touted idea that “Independants” will be a solution to the perceived political malaise here and in other places is easily challenged.
In general terms, there always seem to be a lot of ‘independants’ in political regimes which are either in their formative years or in their years of decline.
Most mature legislatures run on the basis of coalitions of like mind/attitudes or philosophies otherwise the so-called parliaments are nothing much beyond a local punch-up around the parish pump.
It is interesting with what seven? cross-benchers in the HOR, there is talk of them referring to themselves as “we”. So, while this lot might talk about their independent status, they just as quickly seek to coalesce into like minded groups – otherwise know as political parties.
steve davis @ #1134 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 3:34 pm
And that pipsqueak and mental midget, nath, is continuing the tradition here today. 😡
GetUp polling in Warringah shows Libs on the nose
Abbott down to 39%
Abbott performance poor / very poor 57%
Climate and environment no 1 issue 37%
Green or Labor 37%
Independent (unknown candidate obs) 14%
New Matilda
https://newmatilda.com/2018/10/22/tony-abbot-next-getup-polling-reveals-liberal-vote-wentworth-collapsed/
BK: “This one on Wentworth has to be the best Hitler parody EVER!
https://www.captiongenerator.com/1142752/Wentworth-Downfall”
The link goes through to an error message. Being a bit sick of Downfall parodies, I’m almost inclined to think that you meant that the “best” Downfall parody is one that doesn’t actually exist. 🙂
But, if you can find another link, I’d be interested in watching it.
zoomster @ #1122 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 3:10 pm
Totally. And the ABC offends big time.
BK that link appears broken. Is there a youtube?
ItzaDream says:
Monday, October 22, 2018 at 1:39 pm
The next election many will be asking – is the price of Labor’s tax policies worth the saving of the planet – and Phelps might be one easy way of thinking you’re answering it.
Verily I had that exact conversation with a very wealthy, sympathetic, Mosmanite who has 3 young kids
C@tmomma
And the Arsehole of the Day award goes to, this guy.
He doesn’t have a generous bone in his body. But what Liberal stooge does?
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And I’m the asshole? John Howard and Julia Gillard have put more families into poverty since the 1970s than any other cause.
From ACOSS
With large numbers of single parents having already been transferred in 2013,
there is a significant rise in the presence and risk of childhood poverty.
http://wacoss.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/WACOSS-Cost-of-Living-Report-2013.pdf
National Council of Single Mothers and Their Children
It is a crippling blow, most notably for the familes forced from a Parenting Payment
and onto Newstart once the youngest child is eight.
http://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=99e6633a-7651-41a4-90c3…subld...
House prices are heading south. ASX ditto. Wages are stagnating.
Morrison is tryimg to tell voters they have never had it so good.
He needs a reset.
Try this link to take you to the parody.
https://t.co/Vi5LskjnAC
How did the Greens go in Wentworth?
Rigor mortis?
I, for one, think house prices heading south is a good thing. Maybe we’ll get some money going into productive investment for a change.
(Yeah, I know. But a bloke can hope, can’t he?)