Not the Wentworth by-election thread

Some preselection news, and a thread for discussion of political matters not directly related to the Wentworth by-election count.

For discussion focused on the count for the Wentworth by-election, which turns out not to have been as over as you thought it was last night, the live results thread is still in action. For general political discussion, I offer the following post, with my usual semi-regular updates of preselection news.

• Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports a New South Wales Liberal Senate preselection next month is a three-way contest between Jim Molan, Andrew Bragg and Hollie Hughes. Molan found a place in the Senate last December by the grace of Section 44, after securing only the unwinnable seventh position on the Coalition ticket at the 2016 double dissolution, to the chagrin of conservatives including Tony Abbott. Then followed the disqualification of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, followed by the determination that the sixth candidate on the ticket, the aforesaid Hollie Hughes, was likewise ineligible due to a position she had taken on the Administrative Affairs Tribunal. Now it appears Molan is primed to take top spot, and since the third position is reserved for the Nationals, this leaves two and four to be fought out between Bragg, whose decision to withdraw himself from consideration for preselection in Wentworth is now looking pretty good, and Hughes, whose Section 44 complication is behind her.

• The Port Macquarie News reports three candidates have nominated to succeed retiring Luke Hartsuyker as Nationals candidate for Cowper: Patrick Conaghan, a former police officer and North Sydney councillor who now works locally as a solicitor; Chris Genders, a newsagent; and Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business.

• The Burnie Advocate reports Gavin Pearce, who has been described as a “farmer and ex-defence force member”, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Braddon ahead of “Devonport business identity Stacey Sheehan and property developer Kent Townsend”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,550 comments on “Not the Wentworth by-election thread”

Comments Page 24 of 31
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  1. Re the “rise” (if it is a rise) of independents.

    What could potentially happen in the current Australian context is for both major parties to move further away from the centre. Looking at the changing composition of the Lib parliamentary party, and the ludicrous arguments being put forward today by the Deans, Caters and co, the Coalition seems on the verge of going this way, inspired by the perceived success of Trump. Labor is much closer to the centre, but there are forces both within and outside the party (including some who post on PB) who would love to bring a Corbyn/Sanders style of leadership to Australia.

    Any leftward shift of Labor or rightward shift of the Coalition would be driven by fundamentally the same principle: that of consolidating your core support base and attracting new supporters by being very clear what you stand for. In the case of Labor, those new supporters would be expected to come from among the younger voters, while the Libs would be looking to attract disaffected blue collar Labor voters across the ideological divide.

    The problem with this idea in the Australian context is that, unlike the UK/US political systems, we have compulsory voting. So one potential benefit of greater ideological purity – that of attracting people who currently don’t vote to turn out on election day – is not available here. Instead, what becoming more pure is going to do is potentially alienate a lot of uncommitted voters in the middle. And, if both sides are moving away from the centre at the same time, many of these uncommitted voters are going to take a closer look at independents.

    Another scenario would be the rise of some sort of centrist party a la the Dems, once again founded by disaffected moderate Libs. The time is ripe for the emergence of such a party IMO, but the only obvious potential leader, Malcolm Turnbull, is probably unlikely to be interested.

  2. He said the minister’s office was informed ahead of the October 11 as a courtesy so it wouldn’t be a surprise.

    Oh good grief. Just when I think my opinion of the AFP couldn’t get any lower…

  3. Listened for a bit to Prissy this pm on ABC News radio, hasn’t learned a thing:
    1. Wentworth is the geographically smallest electorate
    2. Very different people there i.e. don’t care about the climate
    3. Greens and Labor suffered swings against them too.

    So all settled then! Simples!

  6. Jackol.

    I am still waiting for AFP to report back on Michaelia Cash saga.
    Not holding my breath
    More hope of getting the Mueller report first

  7. “‘House prices are heading south. ASX ditto. Wages are stagnating.
    Morrison is tryimg to tell voters they have never had it so good.
    He needs a reset.””

    They have a way to go to get to 3.5 times the average annual salary!.

  8. Question:

    It’s weird how some people refuse to credit Shorten for anything. This government has been forced to do so many things they didn’t want to, because the opposition, of which Shorten is a cornerstone, have been so bloody effective.

    Do people think everything would have turned out the same if Labor had been as timid as they were after Howard got elected? It’s fanciful nonsense.

    Don’t get me wrong, I personally believe the opposition have been doing a great job under Shorten (aside from a few missteps like their baffling and contemptible stance on Senate reform), and I’m sure a lot of that comes down to his leadership. When it comes to tactics and reading the public mood, he has proved to be incredibly effective, and has also done an excellent job keeping the opposition united and ensuring they are still doing the hard yards policy-wise rather than growing complacent. He may not be very charismatic or well-liked, but that’s pretty overrated, anyway, IMO.

    I just think that, in the case of the 2014 budget, Abbott and co’s ridiculous overreaches, broken election promises, and tin-eared reading of the public mood played more of a part in its rejection by the people than Shorten’s response to it. That isn’t at all a criticism of the latter, which was totally on point.

  10. Boerwar: ‘House prices are heading south. ASX ditto. Wages are stagnating.
    Morrison is tryimg to tell voters they have never had it so good.
    He needs a reset’

    Sadly for Scotty, Mal took the famous Reset Button with him when he cleared out his office. I think Katharine Murphy has the instruction manual, though.

  12. BK

    [I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Former CA royal commissioner Peter McClellan would make an ideal and formidable Governor-General. How could anything negative be said about this outstanding man?]

    He was not very nice to barristers in court.

  13. Both the ACOSS report and the National Council submission were from 2017. If you had bothered reading them it would have saved me correcting you. I’m also trying to work at the same time so I’d appreciate some diligence on your part.

  14. ItzaDream @ #1143 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 3:45 pm

    zoomster @ #1122 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    All of this ‘both majors are on the nose’ messaging from the msm – something you’d think people would subject to some analysis, rather than blindly accepting – ignores the fact that Labor (i) hasn’t lost a single by election in this period; (ii) hasn’t lost a seat to an indie; and (iii) is improving its primary vote.

    Totally. And the ABC offends big time.

    I recall that during the Gillard years, every miss-step, every error that she made was highlighted remorselessly.
    It’s only minor, but I think that it’s telling that ABC news (in Sydney anyway) totally ignored Morrison’s Mr Speaker error.

  15. This is what happens when once safe seats become marginal in Victoria:

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-woos-marginal-seat-voters-with-new-fitzroy-school-20181022-p50b5t.html

    A new $84 million secondary school campus will be built in Fitzroy if the Andrews government is re-elected, in a move to consolidate support in one of its most marginal seats.
    :::
    It sits within the Richmond electorate, which Labor holds by just 1.9 per cent but is facing a major challenge from the Greens.
    :::
    The Prahran High School is currently under construction with $37.2 million allocated to the project. It will also accommodate 650 students.

    Prahran is held by the Greens by 0.4 per cent, with both Labor and the Liberals mounting strong campaigns to win it back.

    Another vertical school in Richmond is also set to open next year.

  16. Time to go to the airport and discover what the Government has done to the place first hand.

    Will report on my impressions.

    See you in transit or Oz. 🙂

  17. I am watching online the livestream of The Invictus Games Indoor Rowing competition. The four minute class is exhausting just to watch. I don’t think I would last 30 seconds on one of those.

    What a great idea for a competition, adaptable, can be set up in just about any venue and caters for a wide variety of competitors.

    It is very exciting to watch, it just needs some graphics to show how far they are rowing. (The winner is whomever can row the farthest in the set time, as measured by the computers on the rowing machines.)

  19. C@t, my bad the ACOSS report was from 2013. I got it mixed up with this from 2017:

    The increase in child poverty is a reality that our political leaders have known about and yet continue to make worse”, says Dr Cassandra Goldie, ACOSS CEO.“We can end child poverty if governments have the will to make the necessary reforms.“ACOSS has repeatedly warned that child poverty is increasing.“Successive governments have instead chosen to cut social security for single parents, including single parent payments by $85 per week once the youngest child turns eight, and removing indexation of family payments to wages in 2009.

    https://www.acoss.org.au/media_release/child-poverty-crisis-hits-single-parent-families/

  24. Asha Leu at 4:08 pm

    You can be sure that wasn’t intended to contradict you. There were 2 well known Shorten ‘revisionists’ posting away at the time.

    I do think that, as much as I disagree with Abbott, life got markedly more difficult for Rudd the moment Abbott became LOTO. Similarly, I think life for the L-NP has been that much harder because of how affective Shorten has been as LOTO.

    Despite what Rex imagines, it does make a difference, and my view Shorten has done it without stuffing things up (like the NBN and climate policy). I would argue that his response to the 2014 budget, and success in blocking parts of it, were an improvement.

  25. Yes, and both Bill Shorten and his Shadow Minister for Family Services have admitted that, without a Transition to Work & Study program for Single Mothers, implemented at the same time as the rearrangement of their payment, a large amount of hardship was caused. And they have apologised for that.

    However, you have your axe to grind, nath, so don’t let me stop you with my contemporaneous information.

  26. It’s amazing how hard nosed ministers suddenly become warm cuddly teddy bears once they are in opposition. goes for both sides.

  29. Nath, in your criticism of the placement of single mums on to Newstart, you draw attention to the inadequacy of Newstart as an income to actually live on. The injustices you frequently draw attention to are inflicted upon Newstart recipients as a whole. Newstart is set so low as to keep its recipients impoverished, in a completely misconceived attempt to “whip them” into accepting any job that comes along, no matter how inadequate the pay or how poor the conditions. This then puts downward pressure on pay and conditions across the board – something business owners appreciate, no doubt.

    Greg Jericho has written a couple of good pieces these last two months, on the unfairness of the stereotype of Newstart recipients as “young beach bums” who need a haircut, a real job and a kick up the backside to get them there.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/sep/18/keep-newstart-low-so-young-beach-bums-dont-stay-on-it-thats-laughable

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/oct/18/penalising-low-skilled-unemployed-who-are-already-doing-it-tough-is-absurd

    Does campaigning to rectify the inadequacy of Newstart payments sound like something you would actively support?

  30. Barney:

    See you in transit or Oz.

    Don’t forget to put Dutton’s office number in your speed dial, in case you have some trouble at the border!

  31. nath
    says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 4:29 pm
    It’s amazing how hard nosed ministers suddenly become warm cuddly teddy bears once they are in opposition. goes for both sides.

    I have always noted how much nicer L-NP PM’s are when they become EX PM’s. Especially if they are feeling bitchy.

    Mind you, I think that might have more to do with me than the personality benefits of losing the ‘One Ring’.

  32. Another great woman putting her hand up to run for the Labor Party:

    My name is Jen Armstrong and I am running as Labor’s Candidate for Miranda at the 2019 State Election.

    As a survivor of domestic violence, I know firsthand the impact of my local community reaching out to help. That’s why in 2013 I founded The Beauty Bank, a charity that provides essential toiletries and small gifts to those who are facing a tough time.

    Since 2013, Beauty Bank has distributed more than 5500 bags of life’s little luxuries to those in need. Through my charity work in the local community, I have seen firsthand that more work needs to be done to assist those at risk.

    Jen became 2016 NSW Woman of the Year. 🙂

  33. Michael A
    Does campaigning to rectify the inadequacy of Newstart payments sound like something you would actively support?
    ____________________________
    Thanks, I could talk about how we could get closer to the Nordic model all day.
    Newstart is an issue, but those with children deserve priority. I would also say Age Pensioners who don’t own their own home, and therefore rent, are also another priority. But children come first, they are sacrosanct. We are spending $50 billion on subs instead.

    There is no way Hawke and Keating ever would have touched the SPP. Keating once said the provision of an adequate social safety net was one of their greatest achievements and he was right.

  34. And speaking of women (not all of them are good women though), we have this out of America today:

    Russian Woman Charged With Interference in U.S. Politics

    A Russian woman has been charged by the Justice Department for her role in a continued effort to interfere in the U.S. political system. According to a Justice Department press release, an unsealed criminal complaint accuses 44-year-old Elena Alekseevna Khusyaynova of serving as a “chief accountant” on “Project Lakhta,” a project with an operating budget of over $35 million. Project Lakhta allegedly aimed to conduct “information warfare against the United States” by leveraging domestic topics to create “political intensity through supporting radical groups” and to “aggravate the conflict between minorities and the rest of the population.” Prokect Lakhta allegedly wanted to sow distrust towards U.S. political candidates, and discussed topics like the “Second Amendment, the Confederate flag, race relations, LGBT issues, the Women’s March, and the NFL national anthem debate.” The project also allegedly created “playbooks and strategic messaging documents” offering guidance on how to target specific social groups and how to craft divisive messages. In addition, prosecutors accused Project Lakhta of targeting audiences in Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine.

    https://www.justice.gov/usao-edva/pr/russian-national-charged-interfering-us-political-system?via=newsletter&source=CSPMedition

  35. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia @ #1130 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 2:58 pm

    Very pleased that my criticism of the Guardian for failing to list Ian Thorpe’s partner in captioning a photo of the pair with the GG, his wife and the royal pair at Government House was acknowledged and corrected.

    I recall Hon. Michael Kirby’s farewell speech when he retired from the High Court highlighting that his partner of over 40 years was often erased from being mentioned at official or other functions despite others partners, married or not, being listed when they were opposite sex partners.

    It really should not have to be corrected in this day and age but kudos to the Guardian for taking it on board.

    Well done, LHHoA.
    I agree with you and The Guardian should know better. If they are unsure who is the partner of whom, they can always check.

    I am glad TG responded to your complaint.

  36. Sohar.

    Correct but you left out interest rates, so money on Term Deposit attracting an interest rate with a 2 in front of it BUT rising interest rates, particularly in the US, impacting on bank wholesale costs so lifting interest rates on our home mortgage debt.

    So the ASX approaching a 10% correction over the last 7 weeks, house prices declining, wages growth remaining flat (now for 5 years), utility and non discretionary costs such as Home Insurance and Private Health Care premiums on the rise and terms and conditions of employment not secure with the rise of casual and part time employment feeding into the under employed figure accentuated by continuing business collapses and retrenchments.

    The ONLY reset in these circumstances, repeating 1984 and the economic circumstances of that time, is for a change of government.

    As Bernie Fraser and Michael Keating have added their voices to in recent weeks, neo liberalism has just not worked and has only created division and anxiety.

    Read Stiglitz

    And, to boot, we have Mr Mis Speak at ANZ saying they are a victim of economic success!!!

    An economy built on debt since the introduction of the GST in 2000 and government measures post 2000, with the amount we owed to our home mortgage lenders increasing from $335 Billion in January 2000 to $1.226 Trillion in January 2010 (noting our banks stopped lending in 2008 with the GFC).

    Then you have those defending Dividend Imputation and remittances of a tax obligation which does not exist being remitted to the thieves who have so arranged their tax affairs – and as WAM in their quest for 200,000 signatures say “our only interest is for our shareholders” – before you get to Negative Gearing and CGT dispensations

    How many are going to march in Melbourne tomorrow over wages?

    The old story is that fool’s and their money are easily parted.

    I note NAB Shares are down to $25.48 today.

    So on the basis of what was put to me when they were at $36- and to buy $200,000- worth for Imputation Credit purposes, those 5,550 Shares would now be worth $138,000-, a Capital Loss of $62,000- or a 30% decline in wealth

    And for how long can the Dividend hold up given the decline in the Share Price?

    Because income is a factor of wealth (so you need to address reverse compounding to maintain and increase income)

    As I say, fools and their money, then complaining such as MB with the windy rhetoric resorted to by that contributor.

    The figures always speak.

    Then we get to the dodgy NBN!!!!!

  38. The crossbenchers are independents Cathy McGowan, Andrew Wilkie and (assuming she is confirmed) Phelps, plus Adam Bandt of the Australian Greens, Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance and Bob Katter from Katter’s Australian Party.

    Each now becomes critical to whether the government stands or falls. This hands the crossbenchers considerable negotiating power.

    They’re not so irrelevant now.

  39. I have been chatting with some of my Victorian farming rellies. They are not happy that their hay now costs $400 (if they can find any) because the transport subsidy pits them against their drought stricken competitors.

  43. proper drought policies which reward good managers instead of incompetent managers.
    Incidentally I asked one of them whether there were still any farmers in the district who doubted that global warming was on.
    Not one.

  44. The federal government’s Lucas Heights nuclear medical facility in southern Sydney should be replaced or rebuilt due to safety concerns, an independent report says.

    Published on Monday, the report by nuclear experts found there was a “make do and mend” culture at the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation site.

    The report found the ageing facility failed to meet modern nuclear safety standards.

    A replacement facility has been discussed for several years, but plans have been hindered because of federal government budget restrictions, the report said.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/2018/10/22/lucas-heights-nuclear-unsafe/

  45. Pegasus @ #1188 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 3:56 pm

    The crossbenchers are independents Cathy McGowan, Andrew Wilkie and (assuming she is confirmed) Phelps, plus Adam Bandt of the Australian Greens, Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance and Bob Katter from Katter’s Australian Party.

    Each now becomes critical to whether the government stands or falls. This hands the crossbenchers considerable negotiating power.

    They’re not so irrelevant now.

    The really important thing is it immensely strengthens the hand of the RWFWs in the Government.

  46. @Boerwar…..”Every single MP’ vote now counts. None of the Gubbie backbenchers can be taken for granted.”………

    Yep…and what’s the bet Morrison won’t be up to the job of dealing with it. He needs to worry about the nutters on his side of parliament more than the crossbench methinks. I can see Abbott and Joyce demanding ministries or they’ll go feral on him.

  47. Speechless.

    Peter Hannam

    #Climate Change Authority confirms in Senate #Estimates that it remains the Morrison government’s intention to disband the agency at the end of this term. #auspol @KKeneally

  50. My wife has always put that, prior to our marriage, she was a “single parent” because her children’s other parent was dead.

    Conversely, I was not a “single parent” because my children had a mother and, to boot, the children spent every second weekend and half of school holidays with her.

    I accept the point my wife makes, and always have.

    Further neither of us, due to our financial circumstances dating back now 25 years, so when our children were young, have ever received any benefit from government despite our parenting status except for the (then) Child Endowment payment where I was the recipient of Part B, which was a pittance.

    And I received a (minimal) Child Support payment, which along with rent survived my children and me.

    And we are where we are today – off our own effort and resource

    To have sat and relied on a government single pension and child support as the sources of income until the child reached 18 (or the end of that year if they were still in education) is to ultimately invite poverty.

    Once a child is in education, to me at least, it is privy on the parent to consolidate their financial position with a view to the future including after their children have completed education.

    And I have no problem with government forcing such an outcome because there is long term benefit on a range of fronts aside from financial stability.

    If, because of age or other debilitating circumstances or during transition between employment times after losing employment, support is required then that is where the appropriate levels of safety net supports should be.

    But not if you simply say “I am a single parent”.

    Every parent has the responsibility and obligation to provide for their children.

    Hence Child Support!!!

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