Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change in voting intention from the latest Essential poll, which also finds respondents evenly split on the future of the Nauru detention centre.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which show Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 42-27 as preferred prime minister, out from 39-27 a month ago. We will have to wait for the full report later today to see primary votes and approval ratings. The poll also finds 40% in favour of transferring families and children on Nauru to Australia, with 39% opposed; 37% supporting the closure of the Nauru detention centre and transferring those remaining to Australia, with 42% opposed; and 35% in support of keeping them there indefinitely, with 43% opposed. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

UPDATE: Full report here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens reverting to 10% after a spike to 12% a fortnight ago, and One Nation up two to 7% after dropping three in the last poll. Scott Morrison is up six on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 28%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 33% and down two to 45%.

The Guardian report focused on asylum seeker questions, but the other focus for the supplementary questions this week is the media. Thirty-six per cent offered that the government had too much influence on the ABC, 16% not enough, 17% about right and 31% don’t know, with Labor and Greens voters greatly more likely to offer the first response. Forty per cent felt ABC reporting was independent and unbiased and 34% the opposite – Labor and Greens supporters weighed more heavily towards the former, with Coalition supporters evenly split.

Also featured is an occasional “trust in media” question, along with a new question identifying specific news outlets. Despite all the fuss of late, results to both follow the usual patterns: public beats commercial, broadsheet beats tabloid, news beats tabloid, and there’s nothing lower than an “internet blog”. The Australian has a slight edge over the Fairfax papers, which I would hypothesise has something to do with the latter’s move to tabloid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,060 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. cud,
    I was in bed at 12.30am last night. Finally! Or, I think I saw the reply but I mused to myself about all the trouble we are having with the locating somewhere to dump the spoil from dredging Brisbane Water, let alone what we would do with all the stuff from a tunnel excavation!

    Also, as the tunnel advances further away from Brisbane Water, how are you going to deal with the spoil then? And will the tunnel always be 80M underground? Plus, how does Hawkesbury Sandstone cope with all this subterranean excavation? Not to mention the fact that the tunnel has to begin somewhere and have an access point for all the molemen and women that will be working on it undergorund. They don’t just magically disappear into the hole underground. And I would imagine undergrounding power that deep would cost a pretty penny. Finally, you didn’t answer my first query. What about internet access?

  6. kezza2 @ #1293 Wednesday, October 10th, 2018 – 8:51 pm

    A quick drive-by comment.

    Does anyone remember back in the 70s when Coca Cola wanted to advertise in the sky, on the horizon? (was that when lasers were first thought of, or one of the uses were thought of?)

    Pre social media, I recall an massive protest.

    Can’t find it anywhere, though. Perhaps I made it up.

    I found this Coke Ad that used pigeons to spell out a message.

    https://www.vintag.es/2015/02/a-coca-cola-advertisement-made-by.html

  7. It has to be said, the campaign the Liberals seem to be running in Wentworth is not the campaign of winners. It is a bumbling mess from a distance.

    At best it is one where they scrape over the line.

  8. Ninety-nine questions. That’s what Kenneth Hayne, the man heading the royal commission into the banking and financial sectors, has posed in his interim report.

    Ninety-nine questions that go to the heart of the way we use our banks, get insurance, make investments and plan for our retirement.

    And they are the 99 questions that will clearly shape both the recommendations that Commissioner Hayne will deliver to the Federal Government early next year and perhaps the response of Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten.

    The Hayne inquiry follows a long line of investigations into the financial sector over the past 20 years.

    https://thewest.com.au/opinion/shane-wright/ninety-nine-questions-that-need-answers-ng-b88982001z

    As the article points out however, a Royal Commission report is only as useful as the extent to which the govt of the day chooses to implement its recommendations.

  9. The Supreme Court decision is fine by me. The bakery was asked to make a cake with the words “Support gay marriage” on it and refused. They didn’t discriminate because the person asking for the cake was gay; they refused because they didn’t want to write a slogan they didn’t believe in which was their political right.

  11. [‘Mirror, mirror on the wall,
    Who’s the fairest of them all?

    The High Court!’]

    Gee, GG, surely you can do better than that(?).

    It almost seems you’ve lost your mojo.

    Courts routinely get it wrong, which it did in the case you’ve cited.

    But more substantive is my question: how’s the DLP going?

    [‘In late August 2009, Melbourne newspaper The Age reported that the DLP was facing several internal divisions between Kavanagh’s faction, which also sought to include evangelical and fundamentalist Protestants within the party, and ‘hardline’ conservative Catholics. Right to Life Australia President Marcel White and a close associate, Peter McBroom, were reported to be emphasising Catholic doctrinal and devotional concerns, like Marian apparitions, Catholic prayer, praying the rosary and campaigns against the “evils of contraception”. Kavanagh was reported as threatening to leave the organisation if the ‘hardline’ elements were to triumph within the Victorian DLP.[42] In the end, the minority ‘hardline’ group was expelled from the party.

    It was reported in June 2010 that the party was on the brink of collapse, with rampant party infighting and less than $10,000 in the bank. On 18 March 2011 the Victorian Supreme Court handed down a reserved judgment confirming Mr John Mulholland’s valid removal as secretary. This decision was subsequently reversed by the full bench of the Victorian Supreme Court however the Court also rejected Mulholland’s claim that he was still the secretary of the DLP at the time the ruling was handed down. A Senate petition in August 2011 from Mulholland requested that current DLP Senator John Madigan be removed from the Senate, with the petition lodged using a residual standing order of the chamber that has not been deployed successfully by anyone for more than a century. In his petition, Mulholland says Madigan put himself forward in the 2010 election as a DLP candidate “although the DLP federal executive did not authorise or recognise his candidacy or have any part in his nomination”]

    Oh dear, I had no idea.

  12. Almost better for Phelps to lose narrowly, and run again as a real independent at the next proper election, that way she’ll get 2 and a bit years, if she can pull it off.

  13. Confessions

    Jailing a few ( better still a lot) of the bustards for what, when it comes down to it, is theft and fraud will do a gazillion times more to clean up the ‘industry’ than any thing else.

  14. Shellbell: “Imagine spending three hours like the Victorian solicitor general addressing seven people who listen intensely to every word you say and are ready to pounce.”

    I’ve met Kris a few times and I’m sure she can handle it.

  15. cc
    “That says it all ”
    Actually I was a little bit miffed when my mother told me how upset she was. I’m pretty sure my sister had me at the back of her mind and I didn’t realise she thought I’d had such a shitty life!

  16. “The Supreme Court decision is fine by me. The bakery was asked to make a cake with the words “Support gay marriage” on it and refused. They didn’t discriminate because the person asking for the cake was gay; they refused because they didn’t want to write a slogan they didn’t believe in which was their political right.”

    I disagree completely, if you open your business to the public you serve all the public you don’t get to pick and choose who you serve in anyway at all.

    If any shop isn’t going to serve ‘x’ the only fair way for the potential customers to avoid embarrassment by these bigoted evil scum that are dividing our country is for there to be a big ‘we don’t serve x’ in the window so that all decent intelligent people who want one united democratic Australia can boycott them and drive them out of business and solve their problem for them.

    Personally I don’t want an Australia where we have ugly signs of division in shop windows, we should be better than that and until we actually are these evil bigoted scum either serve everyone or just don’t open shops to the public. This whole idea of shop keepers humiliating and turning away customers is just completely unacceptable.

  17. A local SSM happy ever after story.

    Amelup farmers, Darren Moir and Nigel Lock celebrated their love with family and friends last Saturday after tirelessly campaigning for marriage equality in Australia.

    The couple met seven years ago and have been engaged for five long years, patiently waiting for the Australian Marriage Act to allow same-sex couples to marry.

    After the SSM plebiscite came back with resounding support for marriage equality, Mr Moir said he immediately sent the “save the date” cards and has been planning their wedding ever since.

    They were married on their property in Amelup last Saturday with 420 guests present to witness the matrimony.

    “It was such a lovely day — all of it came together very beautifully,” he said.

    “When we got handed the marriage certificate — it seems like it’s a whole lot of fuss and bother over one piece of paper, but it is a very important piece of paper for us,” he said.

    https://www.albanyadvertiser.com.au/?news/regional/wedded-at-long-last-ng-b88985581z

  19. WWP
    I bet if most of the people here were signwriters they would refuse to paint a billboard saying “Shorten is a Union Thug: Vote Liberal for a Strong Economy”.

  21. Aunt Mavis, I’m straining to see the relevance of this DLP bullshit. Is the idea that the DLP is Catholic and GG is Catholic so if the DLP is having some issue then that counts as a win against GG? Because if so, it isn’t good enough.

  22. Confessions

    Sadly no. It will be like the US post 2008. Instead of battalions of banksters being sent down there will be just a token ‘Bernie Madoff’ and then off they go , business as usual. 🙁

  23. Yabba88
    Sure JimmyD,

    The UNSW, and virtually all Education faculties in Australian universities have somehow missed your settled fact.
    UNSW offers the Graduate Certificate in Gifted Education
    “Be a teacher who recognises, inspires, and engages gifted students to reach their potential…..

    Since 1991, GERRIC in the School of Education at UNSW has offered the Certificate of Gifted Education (COGE) to over 2,000 teachers from Australia and overseas, equipping them with comprehensive training to meet the needs of gifted students. The School also offers an established Master of Education (Gifted Education). Both courses are practical, teacher-focused, grounded in sound educational research, and presented by a team of renowned experts in the field. Enhance your employability and gain the tools you need to create a vibrant and stimulating environment in which gifted and talented children can flourish.”

    I was on committees of gited and talented associations for many years, organising camps, picnics and special activities days. I provided substantial input into the NSW Department of Education Gifted and Talented policies.

    It really amazes me how many people are prepared to baldly demonstrate their ignorance about specific subject matter on blogs like this. Some of us actually do know stuff!

    Your excessive belligerence and rudeness is unnecessary.

    In any case, not one word of that disproves what I said.

    Certainly, gifted students have to be adequately challenged and given the room to grow, and good teachers are more than capable of doing so. But the challenge of educating high performing students is nothing compared to the challenge of lifting the educational outcomes of low-performing students. And this is where truly excellent teachers are required.

    New research shows that high performing Grade 5-8 students in mathematics and reading exhibit greater self-regulated learning (SRL) skills than their lower performing counterparts.

    Students who are able to regulate their own learning can modify and monitor their behaviour using metacognition, motivation, self-awareness, and self-efficacy to reach a desired learning outcome. Students who can regulate their learning are proposed to gain the most out of education, because their motivations and strategies are focused on learning rather than on receiving external rewards…

    This connection between academic achievement and self-regulated learning may be due to self-regulated learning capabilities helping students to extend their understanding of different subject areas, so that their capacity to learn new skills is strengthened during their years of schooling. It is likely that the students with the strongest ability to regulate their own learning accumulate understanding and gain an advantage over their peers, so that by the time these students reach Grade 5 those with the highest self-regulated learning skills have also become the highest achievers. These students gain more from their learning experience compared with students who are not as able to regulate their own learning.

    https://www.teachermagazine.com.au/articles/high-performing-students-regulate-their-own-learning

    Students in Australia are less likely to be low performers in schools where teachers’ low expectations for students do not hinder learning, where teachers are more supportive, where the quality of educational resources is higher and where there are less teacher shortages.

    – Students attending schools where the quality of education resources is lower are, on average, 13% more likely to be low performers than students who attend schools where the quality of educational resources is higher (OECD average: 3% more likely), after accounting for students’ and schools’ socio-economic status. In Australia, the quality of educational resources is higher than on average across the OECD in both schools with large proportions of low performing students (mean value of 0.44 compared to -0.03 on the PISA index of quality of schools’ educational resources) and those with a large proportion of proficient students (0.74 compared to 0.09). In PISA 2012, there was no OECD country where large proportions of low performing students attended schools with better educational resources.

    – Australian students attending schools where mathematics teachers are less supportive are, on average, 25% more likely to be low performers than students who attend schools with more supportive teachers (OECD average: 6% more likely), after accounting for students’ and schools’ socio-economic status.

    https://www.nswtf.org.au/files/pisa-2012-low-performers-australia-eng_v2_002.pdf

  24. “I bet if most of the people here were signwriters they would refuse to paint a billboard saying “Shorten is a Union Thug: Vote Liberal for a Strong Economy”.”

    They shouldn’t if they hold themselves out to the public as sign-writers. Again if we setup some kind of bigot permission system where you can refuse to serve people based on politics or religion or sexual preference or eye color, so you know what kind of bigots your suppliers are then we are admitting we are a terrible nation of terrible terrible people, I guess the kind that imprison innocent people we are obliged to help and torture and kill them, then that is how we should do it.

    Homosexuality is a perfectly acceptable legal thing to be in Australia and for these evil bigots of ignorance and hate to want to put themselves ahead of the country and humiliate other Australians is unacceptable.

  28. Oh, please, Dio:

    Stick to psychiatry, the words “Support gay marriage” was not an indication that the cake maker supported it; it was merely what the gay couple requested, which should’ve not reached the HC.

  29. And the reverse is true too. If my personal faith is in the Rajneshi and I think Christians are practising evil and it is my right not support Christians, then surely I’m entitled to be told who are Christians so I can avoid supporting them.

    Unless the cake makers were being asked to write “Idiot Bigot’s Cake Company Supports Love and Equality” in circumstances where clearly they support hate and discrimination that is a step to far, but putting on a cake for others to enjoy a belief of theirs is not an endorsement by them, it is just a cake.

    Can Catholic cakes shops start refusing to make protestant cakes? Can Protestant cake shops refuse to make cakes with Jewish religious symbols?

    Nah clearly as a society you can’t start allowing people to express their hate through discrimination.

  30. WeWantPaul @ #1313 Wednesday, October 10th, 2018 – 9:31 pm

    “The Supreme Court decision is fine by me. The bakery was asked to make a cake with the words “Support gay marriage” on it and refused. They didn’t discriminate because the person asking for the cake was gay; they refused because they didn’t want to write a slogan they didn’t believe in which was their political right.”

    I disagree completely, if you open your business to the public you serve all the public you don’t get to pick and choose who you serve in anyway at all.

    If any shop isn’t going to serve ‘x’ the only fair way for the potential customers to avoid embarrassment by these bigoted evil scum that are dividing our country is for there to be a big ‘we don’t serve x’ in the window so that all decent intelligent people who want one united democratic Australia can boycott them at all.

    Personally I don’t want an Australia where we have ugly signs of division in shop windows, we should be better than that and until we actually are these evil bigoted scum either serve everyone don’t open shops to the public.

    You clearly don’t understand the law.

  31. Diogenes @ #1306 Wednesday, October 10th, 2018 – 8:24 pm

    they refused because they didn’t want to write a slogan they didn’t believe in which was their political right.

    No, your rationale doesn’t hold because “they” in this case refers to “the bakery”. The bakery cannot hold beliefs as it’s not a natural person.

    At best it could be said that a specific baker working at the bakery can’t be compelled to write a slogan they disagree with. But the bakery can certainly find or arrange for someone who doesn’t disagree with that slogan to do the actual writing of it. At a minimum it can provide a blank cake and an icing gun so that the purchaser can write whatever slogan they want.

  33. “You clearly don’t understand the law.”

    Yeah I’m a lawyer but you know way better. FMD.

    For the record because your understanding is so abysmally poor you may have missed it, I was expressing an opinion on what a good law would look like. That one or more states has really really bad law wouldn’t be a surprise. It will be a shock but a tonne of law is made by parliaments, and they are full of politicians, they make more bad law than they make good law.

  34. Greensborough Growler @ #1327 Wednesday, October 10th, 2018 – 8:47 pm

    You clearly don’t understand the law.

    Seems to me like he does.

    The bakery is a for-profit business. It’s purpose for existing is to generate profit for its owners. The relevant social compact is that in exchange for the privilege of extracting profit from society, the bakery should provide services to society at large in a reasonable and non-discriminatory manner.

    Anyone with the means to purchase a cake from the bakery gets to do so with the expectation that they will be dealt with professionally and not treated differently based upon which words they want written on the cake.

  36. “You certainly don’t seem to understand this particular ruling.”

    I wasn’t trying to understand it, I was expressing a political opinion, the bottomline of which either it was a dreadful ruling, or it was a ruling based on terrible law which the court chose not ‘fix’ with careful interpretation. The outcome, is truly appalling and disgusting.

  37. Watching some of you guys go around in circles reminds me of the time Mike Willesee skewered John Hewson about the GST on on a cake. The more detail you provide say the less coherent you become.

  38. I have no idea where this idea I’m a psychiatrist comes from.

    WWP
    The point the Court made was that the guy wasn’t refused service because he was gay (which they said would be illegal). It was because the couple who run the bakery wouldn’t write the slogan and there were only two of them, both of whom were evangelical Christians. If the guy asking them to write the slogan was hetero, they still would have refused.

    ar
    Sounds a reasonable compromise. I’m still not sure many people here would be a signwriter and daub billboards with anti-Labor slogans, or indeed anti-SSM slogans before the plebiscite.

  39. “Watching some of you guys go around in circles reminds me of the time Mike Willesee skewered John Hewson about the GST on on a cake. The more detail you provide say the less coherent you become.”

    It is your hate and intolerance blinding you. We will pray for you.

  40. WB:

    [‘Aunt Mavis, I’m straining to see the relevance of this DLP bullshit.’]

    My point is, which should be obvious, is that GG holds opionions very close to the DLP, a very conservative former faction of the ALP, and which kept Labor out of power for 23 years. He’s entitled to his opinions, as am I. I would not call someone’s opinion – mine this case – as being ‘bullshit’.

  42. WWP
    I’m not sure praying for GG will work. The bakery owner says he’s got the Big Guy in his corner.
    “I want to start by thanking God. He has been with us for the last four years.”

  45. “The point the Court made was that the guy wasn’t refused service because he was gay (which they said would be illegal). It was because the couple who run the bakery wouldn’t write the slogan and there were only two of them, both of whom were evangelical Christians. If the guy asking them to write the slogan was hetero, they still would have refused.”

    It is a terrible point. It is excusing bigotry and discrimination. It is saying the shop owners right to hate is more important than the customers right to enjoy a cake with chosen lawful words on it. It is silencing a minority, ‘oh it is lawful for you to be gay but don’t you dare voice it and if you ask me the cake maker to put it on your cake I will silence you, for you.’

    It is a terrible ruling, the cake decorators surely should not be required to have gay sex, that is a bit much, nor should they be required to put a rainbow sticker promoting SSM in their window if they don’t want. Nor should they be required to take a cake supporting SSM to their Sunday church lunch (although they’d be much better Christians with a much better understanding of the gospel if they did). This isn’t about them, this is simply doing your job and putting the words chosen by a fellow Australian citizen on a cake that Australian citizen has bought for their occasion.

    It is a bit like abortions, if you don’t want to give abortions that is fine, but you shouldn’t be allowed to take a job where giving abortions is part of the job and then say ‘hey wait no I don’t do that bit’. It would be a stupid as allowing St John of God to run a public hospital, take all the taxpayers money, sit in a building built and paid for by taxpayers and then say ‘wait God doesn’t let me do that.’

    They are in a job where writing the stupid things people want on cakes is part of the job.

  46. “Only the last 4 years?”
    Judging by the photo of the bakery couple, I’m pretty sure God wouldn’t have wanted spend any more time with them than was absolutely necessary.

  47. Sorry Jimmy, you have completely lost me. We are a cross purposes. I really have no idea what you are trying to prove.

    I was talking about the teaching abilities needed for gifted students. These are the ones, like my kids, who had reading ages ten years above their chronological ages, who were graded, after testing, into grade 2 for arithmetic classes when they first attended school, despite never having been ‘taught’ arithmetic at all. Most teachers have no idea what to do with such students, so, by and large, they don’t do anything. Mine were put in the corridor with a book, or put with one of the strugglers to help them, just like I was in the early 50’s, until they went to OC ‘opportunity class’. Then, wonderment. Teachers who knew what to do with a class of super-learners. They covered the 5th-6th grade syllabus in the first term, then did all sorts of terrific stuff. Research projects at the museum; working out the total area of the school property, using measurement and geometry, and the floor areas of the buildings, and the roofs. And so on and so on.

    Likewise in selective high school. Only one of my younger son’s maths class at Fort St didn’t get over 90 in 4 unit maths. He had the same teacher for the whole six years.

    I had the same experience from 1957 to 1961, at the same school, except we all got First Class Honours in Maths 1 under the marvellous David Mathie, David to us. All 37 of us.

  48. WeWantPaul @ #1345 Wednesday, October 10th, 2018 – 10:10 pm

    “The point the Court made was that the guy wasn’t refused service because he was gay (which they said would be illegal). It was because the couple who run the bakery wouldn’t write the slogan and there were only two of them, both of whom were evangelical Christians. If the guy asking them to write the slogan was hetero, they still would have refused.”

    It is a terrible point. It is excusing bigotry and discrimination. It is saying the shop owners right to hate is more important than the customers right to enjoy a cake with chosen lawful words on it. It is silencing a minority, ‘oh it is lawful for you to be gay but don’t you dare voice it and if you ask me the cake maker to put it on your cake I will silence you, for you.’

    It is a terrible ruling, the cake decorators surely should not be required to have gay sex, that is a bit much, nor should they be required to put a rainbow sticker promoting SSM in their window if they don’t want. Nor should they be required to take a cake supporting SSM to their Sunday church lunch (although they’d be much better Christians with a much better understanding of the gospel if they did). This isn’t about them, this is simply doing your job and putting the words chosen by a fellow Australian citizen on a cake that Australian citizen has bought for their occasion.

    It is a bit like abortions, if you don’t want to give abortions that is fine, but you shouldn’t be allowed to take a job where giving abortions is part of the job and then say ‘hey wait no I don’t do that bit’. It would be a stupid as allowing St John of God to run a public hospital, take all the taxpayers money, sit in a building built and paid for by taxpayers and then say ‘wait God doesn’t let me do that.’

    They are in a job where writing the stupid things people want on cakes is part of the job.

    Take it to a Judge!

  49. “WWP
    I’m not sure praying for GG will work. The bakery owner says he’s got the Big Guy in his corner.
    “I want to start by thanking God. He has been with us for the last four years.””

    Nah he has a fake, I have god in my corner and she is a lesbian, she tells me someone was drunk when they were writing out the bible for her and got large bits of it wrong. Then it was taken by politicians who kept adding their favourite ideas until she can’t recognise it at all. She can’t stand most of her followers and is looking for ways out of her promise not to flood the whole world again. She says technically if we do it to ourselves it isn’t on her.

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