It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:
• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.
• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.
• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.
Player One @ #638 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 11:37 am
Yes, just look away and walk past like a good sheep.
BB: “Saturday Paper column by Helen Razer: so far up it’s own clever bum as to be essentially unreadable in any serious manner.”
I’m not sure what your issue is, Bushfire, but the article seems fine to me – the ABC makes crap programs (Sales, Ferguson, War on Waste, etc.) but gets rid of the better stuff (Tonightly), and Guthrie probably wasn’t as bad as Milne.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2018/10/06/guthrie-milne-and-abc-programming/15387480006962
I’ve got the full series of those “Lost Railways” somewhere Akubra. My recollection was as yours that they were intended for the ESR.
I’m struggling with “marble turntable”. I suppose rich people’s cars would never dream of dripping oil.
Dogs Breakfast 0839am
So sad to hear about your story. I knew someone who had similar frustrating tales of their son – sometimes being sent home from Emergency Departments to care of family when it clearly seemed inappropriate, and sometimes (they felt) being made a “compulsory” patient unnecessarily. All ended in a tragic fatal accident.
There has to be a better way. The SMH articles BK linked to this morning are good but sadly sound like a recording from twenty years ago on an endless loop.
zoomster – glad to hear your intervention was successful. I tell co-workers, trainees and students that you should always think about the possibility that your colleagues are going through some private hell that they have told no-one about.
In the south-east suburbs of Melbourne there is group set up which seeks to decrease suicide by actually highlighting them rather than sweeping it all under the carpet. I think acknowledging there is a major ongoing problem is the first step to having any chance of addressing it.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1181 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 10:05 am
Who says they have to countermand? I support maximizing the civil liberties available to individuals. However I don’t consider “not having to pay any tax” a civil liberty. And if tax is going to be paid, I support having it spent on useful things like universal healthcare, public education, and the like. Corporate entities aren’t individuals and can (and should) be regulated to within an inch of their fictional lives.
EverybodyEvery natural person wins.Socialism and libertarianism can cooperate. 🙂
Also, apparently I’m the resident RWNJ:
https://www.politicalcompass.org/analysis2?ec=-6.0&soc=-6.87
I think because I tended to avoid picking either of the ‘Strongly …’ options except in cases where the proposition being put was clearly entirely wrong/right (such as with the racist/anti-gay ones).
Sohar,
Exactly my point Sohar. You put it so much clearer than Razer.
My Political Compass scores:
Every time I do these kinds of surveys I get different results. Meh.
The warrior christians will never give up
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/forced-to-walk-the-gauntlet-high-court-threat-to-safe-access-zones-20181005-p507za.html
Lizzie wrote:
“I’m struggling with “marble turntable”. I suppose rich people’s cars would never dream of dripping oil.”
Not just one type of marble, but several, inlaid into a mosaic form, and set off with ornate brasswork framing.
Must say, I never saw it rotate, but it was so splendid I bet you could have sold tickets when it did.
Home Cinema was superb too.
Worst day in US politics since the Trump election.
Honestly will be surprised if they aren’t headed into violence somehow, be it from those resisting the SCOTUS repeals of law (Marriage Equality, Roe v Wade etc) or Trump fanatics if he loses.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/06/democrats-republicans-kavanaugh-polarization
Well worth a read…
I found the P compass very difficult as there was no room for “no opinion” or “not sure”.
Don’t know how to assess the result:
Economic Left/Right: -7.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.18
Perhaps I’m just not intellectual enough. 😉
Shorten wousing the wabble. 🙂
Its actually quite a good speech. Really, those who say “what does Bill Shorten stand for?” just aren’t paying attention.
What is it with these types that already have plenty yet are ever hungry to have more? There was an article yesterday about a family on $200,000 a year complaining it wasn’t enough and they were struggling financially. Yet many of these people would be quite happy to see the unemployed exist on $40 a day.
Many years ago I studied the French revolution and how the intransigence of the monarchy to the demands of the ordinary people for a better deal led to the wholesale slaughter of the privileged class. Being a pacifist at heart I would never want to see that kind of thing today. But it did leave me with an impression of just how strong the sense of entitlement and greed of some can be, even to the point where the down trodden can begin to see their only recourse as violence.
I like this version of the opera house sales
“Worst day in US politics since the Trump election.”
Why ARE people surprised now. As I told all those BernieBros and JillnotHill folk back in 2016 – the future of the SC was the primary matter at stake in the Presidential election. Given the insidious dead hand the the SC has played in American politics – going back to the 1850s the only surprise is that folk didn’t get that back when they had a chance to make a difference. …
lizzie, fess
There was a much better thing like this in the lead-up to the 2016 US election. It went through many many issues, and you could rate them on firstly how important each issue was to you, and then where you stood on that issue on a broad scale (I think both scales were 1-10). It took longer to do but it seemed a more thorough assessment.
Rossmcg – “sidewalk” – funny isn’t it that the Australian word “footpath” is not used.
I got Nelson Mandela -4 -2
Thanks Aqualung and Akubra.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump-sexual-assault-us-us-kavanaugh-victims-amy-schumer-arrest-a8570866.html
Blaming the victims….Trump has made this an art form.
BiGD, Michael
In terms of numbers, I hope you two are right on the knocker…
BernieBros and JillnotHill folk
Both campaigns, also infiltrated by the Russians.
The Opera ‘sales’ used to be ‘sails’ but now ‘sales’ is more appropriate.
But perhaps they should be re-named ‘Berejiklians’?
briefly
Yes interesting article, and I read somewhere that increasingly Americans are moving to areas of like-minded people in the same way that “progressives” in Texas gravitate to Austin. I wondered if that “other” Peter Dutton (the popcorn maker in Texas, @peterdutton5 ) may sort of be an example of that in his shift from Houston to Austin. I think he’s coming to Sydney next week.
Next week I will be treading a fine line between the two Americas in DC with people I know on either side of the Great Divide!
Rocket Rocket
That sounds more realistic. When designing questionnaires, I always allowed for a don’t know/don’t care/other answer.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1217 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 11:03 am
Indeed. And now that Trump has fulfilled his purpose in that regard, all the rabid RWNJ’s will
settle downbecome slightly less rabid. The democrats, not so much. 🙂I have been surprised to discover that Sydney thinks it owns the Opera House, when it is used as a symbol for the whole Australia in all publicity.
lizzie says:
Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 12:00 pm
I found the P compass very difficult as there was no room for “no opinion” or “not sure”.
Don’t know how to assess the result:
Economic Left/Right: -7.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.18
Perhaps I’m just not intellectual enough.
___________________
I was about the same as Ghandi left to right but southwards of him (i.e. more) on libertarian.
But I agree, some of the questions were not answerable in four easy steps.
I wanted to say several times “Well, it depends….”
Rex Douglas @ #1201 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 11:40 am
Says the Lib-Lab same same torture camps bleater. Blah blah baa baa!
KayJay
I am a graduate of the Adamstown academy officially known as St Pius X but which I prefer to call St Peter Pheils. It was boys only when I was there.
May I recommend ‘The Priests’ by James M Miller which details the abuse he received there and the startling claim that the cause of the problem was an affair between two of the headmasters: Father Tom Brennan (who was charged with concealing paedophilia but died before getting to court) and Father Pat Helferty.
Following publication I understand that Helferty’s name has been chiselled off the wing named in his honour, in the style of an anti-Stalinist purge
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/max-brenner-couldn-t-pay-for-ice-cream-or-superannuation-20181005-p507xq.html
I am not sure if it is in the Australian MSM but Duterte has had a series of medical tests involving endoscopies and colonoscopies.
It is not looking too flash.
Quite by coincidence, there is a recount of the last election VP votes in train.
The arbiter of the votes is ultimately the Supreme Court, which has just had a rejiggle and new chief justice appointed, I believe. The processes involved might be described as Kavanaughesque… if you want to be kind to the GOP.
One of two people in the running for the VP recount outcome is non other than Bong Bong Marcos…
a r:
Mitch McConnell believes the whole Kavanaugh thing and the protests is going to energise the Republican base and get religious fundies out to vote. I reckon he has a point.
Yes, it wasn’t a criminal proceeding, it was a job interview. What we saw was a partisan, angry, sook, the complete opposite of what you want in a judge. He has completely the wrong temperament, and failed the interview.
The idea that he was on trial was a complete invention by him, to stir up partisan support under the pretence of battling “out-of-control political correctness”. Anyone who says “Who didn’t drink when young?” have been successfully distracted.
Don’t be surprised if Kavanagh uses his own forms of political correctness and selective morality when framing the rational for his judgements in the future.
As I can’t edit I should add that my comment is in response to Kayjay at 9:56 about an article dealing with the 6th priest from my alma mater (more dura mater) going to the slammer for kiddie fiddling
Deja vu with people posting there Political Compass scores….
We’ve used the same Political Compass before, almost 3 years to the day… back then I made a graph depicting everybody’s score:
Good Morning
Confessions
Yes McConnell has a point. The bad news for the GOP is that they have riled up the Democratic side too.
The GOP only wins when voter turnout is low in modern times. Thats why all the voter suppression tactics and Gerrymander maps. All to devalue the Democratic Party vote.
The Supreme Court decision has not changed the polling yet
Demi 2 in 9 GOP 7 in 9
https://fivethirtyeight.com
Nowadays the talk is of the Senate being in play which as you can see from the map was not a serious consideration before.
Confessions @ #1235 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 11:22 am
I think he did, up until the point where Kavanaugh got through. If he had been blocked, and the GOP was heading into the midterm elections facing a very real prospect of not being able to get any nominee through if the dems take over Congress, then yes. The crazies would all come out of the woodwork for that.
But Kavanaugh is confirmed now, and we’re still a month out from the polls. The only people who are still going to care about any of this, come election day, are the democrats (and fair-minded indies who get that Kavanaugh has no place on the Supreme Court).
Confessions,
On the other hand, the Fundy vote may now be satisfied with the makeup of the SC and start thinking about all the non-Fundy behaviours of Trump.
Millennial @ #1238 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 11:26 am
Here’s a more zoomed-in photo:
a r, Question:
Maybe. This is what McConnell thinks anyway FWIW. Gotta admit, he played the long game re Scotus and ended up winning.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mcconnell-calls-opposition-to-kavanaugh-a-great-political-gift-to-republicans/2018/10/06/761b8610-c988-11e8-9158-09630a6d8725_story.html?utm_term=.b76f892cd7e6
Gladysails!
Confessions,
There has been a slight shift in the polls, but I’m not sure it’s possible to remain ‘whipped-up’ for a month after you got what you wanted.
We shall have to wait and see.
Question
I have no doubts the GOP base will turn out due to winning. However also History. Midterms are always against the President in power.
The last time a controversial justice was appointed by the GOP in such a manner was the election after Clarence Thomas was appointed. The woman’s vote decided that election. Ultimately paving the way for Bill Clinton’s Presidency.
I see more numbers for the Democrats than in this one than that one. Thus Trump’s rally today. The GOP knows they need those numbers out to hold onto the Senate.. They have already conceded the House.
https://fivethirtyeight.com
Also I should add this to why there is serious talk about the Senate being in play and the outside 2 in 9 chance of happening this election
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-really-could-lose-that-tennessee-senate-seat/
The survey is designed to elicit your priorities and visceral reactions on a variety of issues and with some questions written in the affirmative and others in the negative so that you don’t get lazy and choose the same answer over and over again. You aren’t supposed to over-think your response. If you could take a “don’t know” option, the data would not be meaningful. You would be ducking the task of revealing your priorities. The point is to choose the option that best approximates your own view.
Guytaur,
I am hoping the US polls are over-estimating the Trump vote because of 2016. (From memory) a Nate Silver article said the polls underestimated Trump by about 1%.
The UK polls had that problem when the shy Tory vote didn’t show up at their last election, and to a lesser degree the polls here also overestimated Turnbull.