Further Friday free-for-all

Amid an otherwise quiet week for polling, a privately conducted ReachTEL poll offers further evidence the Liberals are on shaky ground in Wentworth.

It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:

• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.

• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.

• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

  1. Question

    Thats why I like Nate Silvers approach of using betting odds to describe outcomes.

    That way I know who as the bookmaker I am backing. I also know that when you make such a decision on that you are calculating over the long term you are a winner.

    What people are looking for are signs that the outside chance is actually moving up the field towards the winning post in this particular race

  2. Guytaur,

    I hope the Senate becomes a pleasant surprise, but I’m not expecting anything.

    It’s a pity the Senate has so few GOP seats in the current round. That will reverse in 2020, after 2 more years of man-baby 🙁

  3. Question

    Yes. Thats why the GOP used the crash through approach. They have already resigned themselves to losing the House. They are fighting to retain the Senate and they only have to have their numbers turnout enough to put the Senate out of reach of the Democrats.

    I do think the Democrats will take longer to gain control of the Presidency the House and the Senate.

    However with the deepening divide and now the results confirmed I think that the Democrats doing that and able to deal a hammer blow to that partisan Court will happen. 40 years is a long long time in politics.

  4. Agree Guytaur,

    I think it’s way too soon to worry about “energised Fundies” affecting the house vote. But if the concern makes more DEM’s stand in line to vote, then I won’t complain 🙂

  5. Some of the questions though, lacked nuance. Like, ‘Do you think property should be bought and sold?’ (wtte). Well, with philanthropists in mind, who buy land arks, well, I’m all for it. Also, if you didn’t allow land purchase, it would simply become a case of ‘Lord of the Flies’, the meanest gang gets control of the land and resources. Which isn’t a good thing either.

  6. Question

    The only problem for the GOP is that the crowing over getting control of the Supreme Court will energise enough Democrats to win the Senate.

    In a blue wave year its despite what the pundits are saying its to the advantage of Democrats to have their elections now and not when its a Red Wave year. They have more chance of holding onto their Senate seats.

    Thus if I was the Democrats and had my seats up for election I would prefer them to be in a Blue Wave year than a Red Wave one. Reverse is true if its the GOP.

    This is what the Pundits are getting wrong. The Democrats are in fact moving to take control of the Senate in 2020 just because they will have a good base of seats held and it will bet the GOP with a lot of seats in play at the next Midterms.

    Its very easy to be played by the media narrative and ignore the long term. As the GOP has proved with its stacking of courts and timing of when to break conventional norms to guarantee they get their way.

  7. Oakeshott Country (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 12:19 pm
    Comment #1103

    May I recommend ‘The Priests’ by James M Miller.

    You certainly may. I have already ordered (Amazon) and have the book on my Kindle.

    I will be consulting with my youngest daughter about some of the events in our family concerning some of the events raised.

    Marie, my wife, often spoke of the horrors which were well known and had been for many years. The relocation of offenders was a hallmark.

    Good afternoon and may we all recover from the temporal displacement brought about by clock resets and suggestions of academic distaste. 😵😇

  8. Nicholas

    So what do I respond when I don’t have a ‘visceral’ reaction? Or when, like Don, I want to say ‘it all depends’.

  9. Some of the questions though, lacked nuance. Like, ‘Do you think property should be bought and sold?’

    By forcing you to take a stand on a forceful statement, it elicits data about your relative priories.

    The purpose is to build an approximation of where you stand on core values and commitments, not on detailed policy proposals.

  10. Good point Guytaur,

    I agree about the long term interests, but meanwhile I’m not sure my good humour can survive another 2 years of man-baby. I would feel so much more comfortable if the Dems controlled the House and the Senate.

    Mind you, if the Dems hold seats in traditionally conservative areas, I would expect their votes to be ‘flexible’ on controversial issues.

  11. I should add I see the process of stacking the Supreme Court by McConnell and Trump as like Kerr with Whitlam.

    Yes you get a conservative government. (Fraser did not have the rhetoric of Trump of course)

    However long term elections have consequences and no matter the fiddling of gerrymanders and stacking of courts the will of the majority does win out in the long term and as we have seen it can happen a lot faster than the 40 years predicted.

    The Democrats will fix the election process in the same way as the Keating government tackled centuries of over regulation and floated the dollar and deregulated the financial market.

    President Obama has already started with his campaign on getting out the vote and looking at legal ways to challenge the voting rules.
    We have also seen the ballot measures introducing range ballot voting or as we know it preferential voting.

    So I think the GOP have won a victory in the battle but lost the war. Or as I have said before clutching at straws on the edge of the cliff to prevent the popular will. The only question is will democracy be the casualty or will the popular will of the majority win in elections?

  12. One of the questions was “Do you think land should be bought and sold?”

    The degree to which you agree or disagree with that statement, combined with your responses to other statements, reveals value judgments and beliefs about the scope and purpose and morality of private property rights and commodification.

  13. Question

    Trump is doing a lot to open eyes of a lot of people in the US.

    I predict a high Democrat voter turnout. Already I have seen statements by US corporations giving holidays to workers on voting day. Thats just one example of why I see the GOP losing in elections. Making it normal for business to give a holiday on voting day by non true base conservative business will do a lot to undo voter suppression.

    Things like that and the record number of voter registrations on National Register to Vote public holidays are very bad news for the GOP.

  14. BB
    I have no idea if he is guilty or not.
    He is Trump’s pick. That automatically disqualifies him afaiac.

    It is not the accusation that does him in, for me, it is the lying under oath.

    With RvW on the line and the lives of thousands of women at risk, frankly, I do not care what topples him. This man is going cause deaths of women and incapacitating mental harm, if he succeeds in overturning Roe V Wade.

    It is how he reacted to the accusation that showed his unsuitability for the Supreme Court, along with his perjury, not the claim of sexual assault by Ford.

    If someone did this to Shorten then all we would lose is a chance at government and damage to our economic and social well-being by Liebral policies. A teenage female is not going to be forced to bear a child of her grandfather, or die getting a backyard abortion

    If you cannot see the importance of this change to the Supreme Court, I will start thinking your Devils Advocate role is becoming too ingrained.

    Bushfire Bill @ #1061 Saturday, October 6th, 2018 – 10:07 pm

    Daretotread is right. The Supreme Court Of Poll Bkudger would get all defensive and legalistic if it was someone from THEIR side who was accused, without serious corroboration, of a crime (was it even a crime?) he was supposed to have committed 35 years ago.

    I have no brief to carry for Kavanagh, but most here – with a few exceptions – have had him as guilty since Day #1, indeed Minute #1, seemingly because:

    ● He is Donald Trump’s nominee,
    ● He has been accused of a sex crime, and the mere accusation is enough nowadays,
    ● He is a “frat boy” and they’re always guilty.

    The swiftness to condemnation around here is pretty scary.

  15. Steve SchmidtVerified account@SteveSchmidtSES
    14h14 hours ago
    Susan Collins, the Maine Moderate is no more. She has yoked herself to Trump and in doing so has embraced his tactics and methods. It seems highly likely that Maine voters are going to hit the refresh button on their states’ Senior Senate seat in 2020.

    Steve SchmidtVerified account@SteveSchmidtSES
    14h14 hours ago
    Collins speech on the Senate floor was a paean to disingenuousness and incoherence. Like a butterfly emerging from its cocoon, its’ metamorphosis complete, she emerged fully as a Trump Republican at home and on board with the cruelty, lies and degradations of this corrupt era

  16. Millennial @ #1242 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 12:33 pm

    Deja vu with people posting there Political Compass scores…

    I think this was pointed out last time, and our plotted results also seem to support this – but I just re-did the test to make sure …

    This test is skewed very much to the bottom left quadrant. Some of the questions are simply absurd. It would be very difficult for anyone answering reasonably honestly to come up with a result that was very far into the “nutjob” quadrant.

  17. Nicholas @ #1266 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 12:23 pm

    The degree to which you agree or disagree with that statement, combined with your responses to other statements, reveals value judgments and beliefs about the scope and purpose and morality of private property rights and commodification.

    Perhaps, although how does housing work if land cannot be bought/sold? The options would seem to be:

    1. Anyone can go live in any house they feel like, regardless of the opinions of whomever is already living there; or
    2. Houses are doled out by the state, according to whatever criteria the state likes; or
    3. All land becomes leasehold only, so people still buy and sell in a sense, but whomever owns the land retains that ownership (and therefore, all the power and all the wealth as well)

    Not one of those options seems any good. Which isn’t to say there’s a ‘moral’ value that should be attached to private property ownership. But having private ownership does seem less bad than the alternatives. I don’t want an all-powerful state deciding who gets to live where, and I don’t want to have no recourse whatsoever if some random person wanders into my house and starts crashing on my couch (or pitching a tent on the lawn, whatever).

  18. Millenial

    The questions are a little different but scores similar

    I am now -8.8 economically and a little more socially progressive -5.54

    I like this set of questions better – a little more universal and fewer are USA centric.

  19. I think the ABC did an OZ version of that compass a few elections back. The results made sense to me at the time. I was slightly closer to the Greens than the ALP. I mainly vote ALP because I think they have a better chance of making government policy closer to my views.

    From memory, according to the arbiters of that test, the Greens were closer to the ALP than the ALP to the Libs. Nothing like the Greens being in the middle of the bottom left square and the ALP and Libs side by side in the top right, as many contributors to PB will try to have you believe.

  20. Puffy

    If you think long term.

    Human Rights as outlined in the Bill or Rights applying to equality for women and blacks and LGBTI etc have only been big since the 60’s

    The US has gone from the civill war to the 60’s. Its now in a peak screech of the last vestiges of power of the elites fighting against that.

    Anita Hill had to face a Committee of men vilifying her to her face. Today Dr Ford has had the vilification happen but not to her face and those same men hired a woman to do their hit job for them and intervened when she failed to do their bidding.

    This time there were women in the Senate on the Judicial Committee to ask questions.

    Progress has been made and will continue to be made despite Trump and his stacked court.

  21. Question

    Yes. What we see is that posters in PB are skewed towards the right.

    As William noted in regards to a post by Rex. The orthodox left view on AS is shouted down here as if its radical left wing crazy out there bottom of the garden down with the fairies stuff. Edit: I am not directly quoting William

    Kind of like Trump did in his rally calling the Democrats extremist for daring to object to his view of the world.

  22. The funny part of the Kavanagh stuff was when he started throwing questions back. It was all very “I know you are, but what am I?”

    The less observant identified with his drinking habits, and didn’t notice that he was still acting like a preppy twat.

  23. Perhaps, although how does housing work if land cannot be bought/sold?

    The statement forces you to reveal something about the degree to which you consider land to be a commodity. The survey’s purpose is not to nail down your definitive detailed views on the subject.

    In answer to your question, housing can work just fine without individuals owning the land on which the housing sits.

    Governments can own the land and rent it out to people (like the ACT’s Land Rent Scheme).

    Community Land Trusts can own the land and rent it out to people.

    Access to land can be provided via very long-term leases that have all of the stability of ownership, and even the right to bequeath the tenancy to someone else under prescribed conditions, but without the capital gains windfalls that land owners seek.

    Individuals can be permitted to own land but not have the right to sell it at the market price.

    Individuals can be permitted to own land but the capital gains are completely taxed away from the owner, so that the owner’s focus is on a rental income stream rather than a capital gain that the owner did nothing to create.

    It isn’t necessary for individuals to own land and be entitled to sell the land at market price in order for good quality development to occur and for people’s housing needs to be met.

    Land ownership is a form of monopoly, and monopolies create a lot of inefficiency and waste if they are not managed with public purposes at the forefront.

  24. The less observant identified with his drinking habits, and didn’t notice that he was still acting like a preppy twat.

    His temperament coupled with his partisanship and political baggage is what makes him fundamentally inappropriate for the supreme court.

  25. Nicholas

    I disagree with you on a lot but on land ownership you are correct about the reality.

    However until we get some Canada style media laws into place we can’t even have a rational debate on this subject. Just look at the outrage that greeted Daniel Andrews very modest increase in Tenant Rights legislation.

  26. Dog’s Breakfast.
    I am horrified by your experience and angry at the total disaster that is our wretched mental health services.

    I have been close to where you are now. A midnight phone call was all that prevented it.

    A number of years ago, my high achiever darling progeny (DP) called another DP in London who called me in Adelaide, and I had to send the ambulance in another state to the residence, just in time to save DP.

    Then private health insurance allowed DP to access high quality mental health care. DP had previously sought assistance from a public hospital only to be turned away.

    No one should need to have private health insurance to get good quality responsive mental health care.

    DP is doing very well. I am angry and greatly saddened because that should have been the outcome in your case.

    A former poster here, Bemused, lost a son in similar circumstances as yours.

    In SA, specialist mental hospitals were closed and it was a good thing as abuse occurred in them. The money saved was supposed to fund community care and beds in public hospitals. The money spent was not enough, nor were there ever enough beds in public hospitals for people in a mental health crisis. I think that is the same in all other states.

    I am so sorry this happened and I wish there were words to ease grief, but I know there are none. I understand to a small extent and extend my condolences.

    Puffy.

  27. Player One

    It would be very difficult for anyone answering reasonably honestly to come up with a result that was very far into the “nutjob” quadrant.

    Perhaps it is a quiz is based on a US source ? Some of the “nutjob’ would be normal over there.

    I remember Paul Krugman after a trip to NZ+Aus explaining to his US readers the political parties in NZ . He said both the ‘left’ and ‘right’ wing parties in NZ would, in the US, be considered left wing, the equivalent of the Democrats. Oz would have been pretty similar but this was back when Lucien was LOTO , before The Abbott.

  28. Poroti

    Don’t forget that the centre is not where the media and even posters on PB keep saying it is for Australia.

    Just look at the polling. A good example is the Marriage Equality survey. We kept being told Australians believed in Howard’s definition and wanted no change. This despite public polling saying different. Survey result held under election results conditions confirmed the polling.

    Most Australians would be what Labor people would describe as Centre Left. Until that is recognised the minority party vote will continue to increase.

    You will see the likes of Hanson catering to that view with embracing ideas like the “People’s Bank” to appeal to that sentiment while espousing her fear of the other to back her right view. Ala Trump.

    There is very good reason Australia has not had a tipping culture not had a casual work contract and supported workers rights and people before the economy narratives over its history.

  29. The standout feature of US politics is the depth of the divide. There are very large parts of the country where one party or the other is overwhelmingly dominant. This really militates against a politics of compromise and in favour of the politics of winner-takes-all.

    Viewed from a considerable distance, it just looks like Americans are turning on each other; as if they have declared hostilities on one another. This is literally the case when it comes to the NRA, who have repeatedly called on Americans to arm themselves against each other. Inter-racial discrimination is matched or even exceeded by religious and political discrimination.

    The blaming, the shaming, the desecrations, the gratuitous humiliations and the gloating, the reflexive violence….this is a country being turned inside out by its own excesses. There is a profound militancy in the US. It seems that if they cannot make war on others, they will take up campaigns against each other. This is deeply de-stabilising, and, it seems, is exactly what the Right intend.

    For mine, it’s also obvious that America’s trauma does not stop at its own borders. This is symptomatic of millennial change. I continue to make the point. The 20th century is now well in the past. The post-war liberal, internationalist, rules-based and institutionally-based order – an order fashioned by the US in the 1940s based on its own internal social compromise and adopted or extended elsewhere in the constitutional democracies – is in its long death-throes.

    The revisionists and the reactionaries continue to make gains; continue to work to pick that order to pieces. It manifests in the internal dynamics of the US. It is manifesting in the global economic, political and strategic environment. And it is manifesting in the internal politics of many countries, including this one, where politics is usually a well-developed study in snorology.

    We are observing the design development phase of the 21st century project, as imagined by the Right. Having captured some of the key citadels, the Right now aim to seize and subjugate all their surrounding lands.

    By contrast, generally speaking the Left does not have its shit together at all. They continue to wildly underestimate the strength of the Right; to exaggerate their own strength; and to be gravely divided on their political, cultural, social and economic priorities; to misunderstand the nature of the challenges.

    Of course, this is playing out in the shadows of the greatest existential peril humanity has ever had to address…..the menace of run-away climate change. The Right would have us turn away from the future and back to the past at the very time we must do the precise opposite.

  30. Poroti
    He did pray for rain so I think he is entitled to take credit. I want to know when Woolies are going to give me back the spare change I contributed to the “Farmers doing it tough, but not complaining”meme

  31. Player

    The test is USA skewed so here in Australia we should really move the axes a point or two to the left.

    However just for interest I am going to do the test as if i were a RW frind of mine. I know his views on most topics so it is reasonably accurate, but where i am not sure I opted for one of the middle two.

    He came out as positive 6.25 economically and – 0.46 socially. So the test is not quite as absurd as you may think.

    Now try doing it as if you are peter Dutton, Tony Abbott or Scotty or Malcy.

    I am about to
    Tony: 8.05, 6.05 – so economically this seems to cover the spectrum
    Peter Dutton 9.25 , 7.49 – even wider spectrum
    Scotty: 8.36, 5.34
    Malcolm 6.13 and -4.62

  32. PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-07

    I think the consensus is still that there will not be a Newspoll this weekend. I will stop checking for guesses and resume again late next week. For posterity only. Enjoy.

    PB mean: ALP 55.2 to 44.8 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 46

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 A different Michael
    60 / 40 adrian
    53 / 47 a r
    53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
    53 / 47 Asha Leu
    52 / 48 ausdavo
    54 / 46 autocrat
    53.5 / 46.5 bilko
    53 / 47 BK
    53 / 47 Boerwar
    53 / 47 Confessions
    53 / 47 Cud Chewer
    95 / 5 Dan Gulberry
    99.99999 / 0.00001 Darc
    54 / 46 Don
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    53 / 47 Gareth
    55 / 45 Gecko
    54 / 46 Golly
    53 / 47 Gorks
    53 / 47 guytaur
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 imacca
    54 / 46 jeffemu
    53 / 47 jenauthor
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    54 / 46 Lynchpin
    51 / 49 Matt
    52 / 48 meher baba
    55 / 45 Michael
    53 / 47 Mr Ed
    55 / 45 pica
    52 / 48 Player One
    53.25 / 46.75 poroti
    54 / 46 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    52.5 / 47.5 The Silver Bodgie
    53 / 47 Tristo
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Whisper

  33. Why didn’t Morrisson pray for rain a lot earlier when it would have helped all those farmers; or if he did, why was not god listening to him then?

  34. Nicholas says:
    Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 1:58 pm
    Perhaps, although how does housing work if land cannot be bought/sold?
    The statement forces you to reveal something about the degree to which you consider land to be a commodity. The survey’s purpose is not to nail down your definitive detailed views on the subject.

    In answer to your question, housing can work just fine without individuals owning the land on which the housing sits.

    Governments can own the land and rent it out to people (like the ACT’s Land Rent Scheme).

    Community Land Trusts can own the land and rent it out to people.

    Access to land can be provided via very long-term leases that have all of the stability of ownership, and even the right to bequeath the tenancy to someone else under prescribed conditions, but without the capital gains windfalls that land owners seek.

    Individuals can be permitted to own land but not have the right to sell it at the market price.

    Individuals can be permitted to own land but the capital gains are completely taxed away from the owner, so that the owner’s focus is on a rental income stream rather than a capital gain that the owner did nothing to create.

    It isn’t necessary for individuals to own land and be entitled to sell the land at market price in order for good quality development to occur and for people’s housing needs to be met.

    Land ownership is a form of monopoly, and monopolies create a lot of inefficiency and waste if they are not managed with public purposes at the forefront.
    —————————————

    This is an excellent summary of the reasonable alternatives to the commodification of human habitation.

  35. @grhutchens tweets

    Scott Morrison says he agrees with the decision to put the Everest horse race advertising on the Sydney Opera House

    “Why not put it on the biggest billboard Sydney has?” #auspol

  36. Well, you could understand that.

    After all, Turnbull had his own Russian supplied rain making machine, so praying to God must have seemed superfluous.

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