Further Friday free-for-all

Amid an otherwise quiet week for polling, a privately conducted ReachTEL poll offers further evidence the Liberals are on shaky ground in Wentworth.

It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:

• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.

• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.

• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

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  2. don @ #549 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:28 pm

    B.S. Fairman says:
    Friday, October 5, 2018 at 8:14 pm
    You don’t need to print in colour if you have letterheads. That actually saves money.

    Also if you are doing form letters, like mailouts, there are printing options which cost significantly less than laser or ink jet per sheet if you are doing a few thousand letters.

    Also the ink can go to the edge of the page on letterhead.

    ________________________

    You mean… people actually write paper letters?

    Whoooeee!

    I haven’t printed a paper letter for years. Anyhow, I don’t know where the stamps are kept! Nor do I know what the correct postage for a letter is, so knowing where the stamps are kept is not much use to me anyhow.

    I write quite a lot of letters in hospital practice. We still use FAX, so coloured letterhead is a bit of a waste.

  3. rhwombat. I have a problem with snow. It melts. Memories include lying under my car, at night, putting chains on the tires, fingers numb, clothes sodden and cold, chains slipping, biting, …yuk. I’m loving Queensland.

  4. Aren’t the Liberals just waiting until after the Wentworth By-election before they start going at each other in earnest again? 🙂

  5. The Nudgee Beach (QLD) mangrove boardwalk and bird hide looks like great bird habitat – if the cruisers, rough traders/tradies etc. loitering about didn’t scare them off first.

    Taking DW and a spotting scope to see the waders/shorebirds at the bird hide was a tad awkward.

    A formal tide-based system is needed to separate birders and others.

    “Hides for birding, not bonking!”

  6. I still write by hand all the time. It helps me think straight. Staring at a keyboard and wondering what to type just isn’t the same.

  7. Late Riser @ #553 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:36 pm

    rhwombat. I have a problem with snow. It melts. Memories include lying under my car, at night, putting chains on the tires, fingers numb, clothes sodden and cold, chains slipping, biting, …yuk. I’m loving Queensland.

    Snow’s only a problem if it gets too warm. I’ve been snug as a bug in snow caves for days at a time. I’m in Mt Isa at present. It’s too warm – “but it’s a dry heat”.

  8. “but it’s a dry heat”

    Like WA in the Summer when an Easterly is blowing off the Nullarbor.

    Like being in a fan-forced oven.

  9. Jaeger @ #555 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:40 pm

    The Nudgee Beach (QLD) mangrove boardwalk and bird hide looks like great bird habitat – if the cruisers, rough traders/tradies etc. loitering about didn’t scare them off first.

    Taking DW and a spotting scope to see the waders/shorebirds at the bird hide was a tad awkward.

    A formal tide-based system is needed to separate birders and others.

    “Hides for birding, not bonking!”

    As long as you’re practicing safe birding…

  11. The returns on our superannuation accruals (so impacting on all of us) have reflected not only a seriously under performing ASX as a forward indicator but also the economic performance of the Nation resulting in under target inflation which refuses to exceed target despite the Official Cash Rate being at 1.5%

    The 10 Year Bond Yield in Australia is at 2.71% (it had a 7 in front of it in 2007, driven by inflation)

    By contrast, in the USA, the continuing post GFC recovery sees concerns re inflation (exacerbated by the Trump policy settings) with the 10 Year Bond Yield above 3.2% and concerns that inflation will pressure the upper target – these increasing Yields pressuring equities because of returns being competitive across the asset classes

    The maths of increasing Yields versus pressure on equity markets will play out – that is why we have balanced portfolios

    The real problem remains the 10 Year Bond Yield in Australia – where the arbitrage to US rates and trend sees pressure on the AUD, noting the impact of an easing AUD on the unhedged Global equity values

    So that is the complexity

    But from somewhere we need economic recovery in Australia, upward movement in wages (also called for by the RBA Governor successively over the term) and inflation to within the target band

    Meanwhile the domestic factors continue to negatively impact on the performances of our Fund Managers, performances which have been tepid across the first quarter of this fiscal year

    Plus we have a cooling of house prices – again referred to by the RBA Governor

    So, domestically we have no contributor to wealth accrual

    Neither equities or Bonds or property values

    This assessment is consistent with other analysis I attend concluding that a change of government is essential to the economic well being of the Nation and its citizens, citizens who are being screwed at every level in terms of wealth creation (so confidence) and COL pressures including the importing of higher interest rates on our $1.7 Trillion home mortgage debt

    There needs to be a circuit breaker this government can not deliver because of who it is and what it is

  12. One thing that’s been bugging me since yesterday. Does anyone know why Mark Dreyfus, who is Jewish as far as I know, went to school at a Catholic Private college??

  13. rhwombat @ #559 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:41 pm

    Late Riser @ #553 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:36 pm

    rhwombat. I have a problem with snow. It melts. Memories include lying under my car, at night, putting chains on the tires, fingers numb, clothes sodden and cold, chains slipping, biting, …yuk. I’m loving Queensland.

    Snow’s only a problem if it gets too warm. I’ve been snug as a bug in snow caves for days at a time. I’m in Mt Isa at present. It’s too warm – “but it’s a dry heat”.

    Memories.

    I spent a bunch of months at Isa in my youth working at the mine. Is the Irish Club still a thing? At the other extreme I spent 3 months in New Brunswick (Canada) during their winter. Temps were -35C on the “day” I arrived. (It was always dark.) We’d hang our laundry out at -20C and it would dry in hours. Stiff as a board. But dry. I’d go for a walk ON the river. Again though, the shit melts. Spring was rank. All the death decayed at once. Yuk. 🙂

  14. “Aren’t the Liberals just waiting until after the Wentworth By-election before they start going at each other in earnest again? ”

    Suspect so. 🙂

    Although…i think they are pretty well inoculated to the idea that there will be a big drop in their primary vote and will write that off as the last gasp of the disgust about knifing Truffles, and then will try the cheery yay daggy dad lets move on thing.

    If they come close to losing the seat though, there may well be a strong whiff of evacuated bowels emanate from the Liberal Camp and they will spin like tops. 🙂

  16. Late Riser @ #563 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:46 pm

    rhwombat @ #559 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:41 pm

    Late Riser @ #553 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:36 pm

    rhwombat. I have a problem with snow. It melts. Memories include lying under my car, at night, putting chains on the tires, fingers numb, clothes sodden and cold, chains slipping, biting, …yuk. I’m loving Queensland.

    Snow’s only a problem if it gets too warm. I’ve been snug as a bug in snow caves for days at a time. I’m in Mt Isa at present. It’s too warm – “but it’s a dry heat”.

    Memories.

    I spent a bunch of months at Isa in my youth working at the mine. Is the Irish Club still a thing? At the other extreme I spent 3 months in New Brunswick (Canada) during their winter. Temps were -35C on the “day” I arrived. (It was always dark.) We’d hang our laundry out at -20C and it would dry in hours. Stiff as a board. But dry. I’d go for a walk ON the river. Again though, the shit melts. Spring was rank. All the death decayed at once. Yuk. 🙂

    Yep, the Irish Club still flows.
    Cold deserts are challenging, but the melts in summer are more so. I once shared an office with an Icelandic Professor of Limnology on sabbatical from Reykjavik – he was an entomologist specialising in blackflies. He said he preferred our non-biting ones – though we had more interesting mosquito borne diseases.

  17. If the Libs lose Wentworth all bets are off. They will be at each other throats in a flash.

    I actually don’t think they will but they might.

  18. Interesting (from Phil Coorey’s article today):

    Labor strategists also detect the voters, as turned off as they have been by the leadership revolving door, are also resigned to it.

    Furthermore, some voters equate a change of leader to a change of government, making the case for change that little bit harder.

  22. From my Facebook:

    Caltech Professor Frances Arnold survived breast cancer, raised three boys after the deaths of their fathers (biochemical engineer Jay Bailey and astronomer Andrew Lange), and today won the Nobel Prize.‬

    ‪Brace yourself for what is likely to be a very moving acceptance speech.‬

    I will chase more info now, but trust the source.

  23. Player One @ #506 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 7:03 pm

    So not “indefinite” as much as “undefined”?

    Not at all. The maximum time any refugee would spend in detention is precisely defined. It is exactly:

    Math.floor(<queue position> / 50000) + 1 year(s)

    Which is neither indefinite nor undefined.

    And on what planet do such partners exist?

    Earth. And possibly other planets that we don’t know about yet. The universe can’t be entirely full of tribalistic assholes.

  24. a r @ #573 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 9:19 pm

    Player One @ #506 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 7:03 pm

    So not “indefinite” as much as “undefined”?

    Not at all. The maximum time any refugee would spend in detention is precisely defined. It is exactly:

    (<queue position> / 50000) + 1 year(s)

    Which is neither indefinite nor undefined.

    Your assumptions are amusing, if not particularly realistic.

    And on what planet do such partners exist?

    Earth. And possibly other planets that we don’t know about yet. The universe can’t be entirely full of tribalistic assholes.

    I admire your optimism. But not your predictive capabilities.

  28. Wow! Donna Strickland is only the third woman ever to win the Nobel Prize in physics.

    I was surprised, but realise now that Irene Joliet Curie got her Nobel prize in chemistry.

  29. Also, a bit depressing that the prize was awarded several days ago, and got zero coverage in Australia. If not for a Facebook post from a colleague in Canada, I would have completely missed this.

  31. Douglas and Milko @ #572 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    From my Facebook:

    Caltech Professor Frances Arnold survived breast cancer, raised three boys after the deaths of their fathers (biochemical engineer Jay Bailey and astronomer Andrew Lange), and today won the Nobel Prize.‬

    ‪Brace yourself for what is likely to be a very moving acceptance speech.‬

    I will chase more info now, but trust the source.

    Agreed, Arnold’s work was intellectually beautiful – using microbial evolutionary mechanisms to ‘find’ biologically active molecules in the 80’s was revolutionary. Smith’s work was more prosaic, but involved my favourite topic: phages. I’m still waiting for the Nobel for the CRISPR-Cas9 work – though that will probably be in Med/Physiology not Chemistry.

    At last the Peace Prize went to worthy winners. Suck that Trump and the Frat Boys.

  36. Sounds like I have something in common with the assistant Treasurer.

    My copper shat itself years ago and I’m on a 4G connection.

    Difference is, the NBN is not coming to my address (well, they’re offering satellite so fuck that) and even when I try HARD (like go on YouTube binges) the most I get out of my connection is 30GB. How fuck did Robert clock up 300GB? Crank up BitTorrent? Even then it would be hard to do.

  37. C@t I find the visual effort of hand writing prevents me from being able to think.
    But typing for me is pure muscle memory. I do my best thinking while typing to myself.

  38. The 10 Year Bond Yield in Australia is at 2.71%

    For Commonwealth Government Securities the bond yield is whatever the central bank decides it will be. Bond issuance for the federal government is a liquidity management operation, not a fiscal operation. Bond issuance does not finance government spending – it is a means of swapping one type of AUD asset (reserves) for another (a CGS). The central bank engages mostly in repurchase ageeements (repos) and sometimes in outright sales and purchases of CGSs in order to ensure that the supply of reserves in the banking system is just the right amount to enable the central bank to hits its target overnight interest in the overnight interbank lending market.

    The optimal monetary policy is to maintain a permanent zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). Fiscal policy is far more effective and direct and precise at influencing output, employment, and demand than interest rate adjustments ever can be.

  39. Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #587 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 10:16 pm

    C@t I find the visual effort of hand writing prevents me from being able to think.
    But typing for me is pure muscle memory. I do my best thinking while typing to myself.

    It’s because I have pretty bad arthritis in my hands that my thoughts get interrupted when I’m thinking and typing due to the number of mistakes I keep on making and then having to go back and correct. Also the click clack of the keys distracts me from my thoughts. Not to mention that, as a visual learning style kind of person, if I put my thoughts on paper they can be arranged to look, and be, better. 🙂

  41. “How fuck did Robert clock up 300GB? ”

    Netflix, Porntube??

    Although, with my 15yo oftensprung we often clock up 200-250GB / mth.

    Thats on a 22Mbps NBN FTTN connection for $69 / mth.

    Maybe a lot of it was messaging with other Libs over the last couple of months sorting numbers for the Lib #Leadershit?? 🙂

  43. And we are seeing fiscal impetus from government – witness the Victorian State government

    Monetary policy has been stuck where it has been for 10 years, since the GFC – and the bringing forward of out year expenditures post the GFC to provide impetus has left a hiatus which has not been addressed – and not repaired by business investment – noting the ASX remains 7% under its pre GFC peak

    Interesting is that the arbitrage courtesy of the USA 10 Year Bond Yield being at 3.20% and the Australian 10 Year Bond Yield being at 2.71% represents the first time since the 1980’s that such a spread has existed

    The normal is that interest rates in Australia are above interest rates in the US so the current spread is noteworthy

    And as a question, I do not recall seeing either of the 2 journalists subject to the criticisms levelled at the ABC over the recent period

    Just my viewing habits?

  45. sans murdoch indeed. the fake govt/news. massive guilt projection attacking ABC. Rudd is 150% right calling for royal commission.

  48. Yet another sterling example of Alan Jones needing to pull his bloody head in.

    Good luck to Alan Jones, I reckon. I wish I had both sides of a political duopoly bowing to my every whim because they’re too stupid to recognise their own best interests.

    It’s funny though how the least important issues sometimes show what political leaders are really made of. Plainly Gladys Berejiklian isn’t up to the job. There were intimations of this in her handling of the Perrottet-Williams stoush, but this shows that was just the tip of the iceberg. I don’t ever recall seeing a more spineless display from a political leader in all my life. It’s not even as if she’s sacrificed principles for some base political motive, or anything as smart as that – she just collapses like a house of cards at the first blustering bully who breathes on her. There’s no political upside to this — even the comments thread at the Daily Telegraph (one of the chief spruikers of this nonsense, who at least had the excuse that they were acting out of commercial motives) is running 70-30 against.

    We also learned today that NSW Labor hasn’t improved one little bit from the bad old days, which is not a surprise, and that Anthony Albanese either isn’t as smart or as pure as was commonly supposed, which is.

  49. I am sickened too by Gladys. This is so embarrassing for NSW. Jones? Is it not possible for a politician to tell him to naff off? Just for once?

    As for Albo, I fear he’s Labor’s next Richo.

  50. rhwombat: “Icelandic Professor of Limnology on sabbatical from Reykjavik”

    I am so happy this person exists.

    Though I am not sure his expertise will extend to the successional and legal implications of the Swedish girl pulling a sword out of Vidöstern lake.

    Returning you to normal programming.

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