Further Friday free-for-all

Amid an otherwise quiet week for polling, a privately conducted ReachTEL poll offers further evidence the Liberals are on shaky ground in Wentworth.

It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:

• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.

• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.

• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

Comments Page 11 of 33
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  1. Good evening all,

    This is, in simple terms, a drive by hit on Stuart Robert.

    Liberal internals still running wild.

    Cheers.

  2. “Must be wonderful for a pollie. Get caught ripping off your employer (stealing ?) a ‘whoops’, pay back the money and keep your job.”

    Isn’t this guys some kind of serial offender on this stuff??

  3. A R @ #500 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 7:00 pm

    So if they choose option 1, do they go into detention in the meantime?

    Yes. But as any competent politician would be at pains to point out, *not* indefinitely. Their waiting time would be entirely predictable and known in advance. And they get to freely choose whether they’re willing to do that time in order to reach Australia or if they’d rather just go somewhere else.

    So not “indefinite” as much as “undefined”?

    And if they choose option 2, do they go into detention in the meantime?

    Nope, there should be no substantial meantime in that scenario. Our partners have to be willing to accept refugees on an immediate basis, predicated solely upon Australia’s assessment of their status.

    And on what planet do such partners exist?

  4. Sprocket_ @ #497 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 6:57 pm

    Stuart Robert has not only been fleecing the taxpayer on internet expenses…

    Liberal politician Stuart Robert spent almost $17,000 of taxpayers’ money on “personalised letterhead stationery” during the final weeks of the financial year, more than five times the typical spend for an MP.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-05/mps-expense-claims-stuart-robert-spent-most-on-stationery/10328066

    Matthias Cormann backed ‘Dutts’ and Stuart Robert backed ScumMo. Cormann is the holder of the Claims data, so…

  5. C@tmomma @ #502 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 7:00 pm

    Douglas and Milko @ #493 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 6:55 pm

    Why on Earth does Alan Jones have this much power?

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/gladys-berejiklian-hands-racing-nsw-alan-jones-victory-in-opera-house-battle-20181005-p50837.html

    Alan Jones may back her until the election but everyone else will recoil in horror at her capitulation.

    I see also Albo and Foley have backed Jones. I hereby apologise for voting for Albo for leader and if I lived in NSW I would seriously be considering breaking the habit of a life time and voting 1 Greens 2 Labor.

    FFS the only way to get rid of Jones is just to oppose, oppose, oppose till he crumbles.

  6. When this guy defaced the Eurydice Dixon memorial, it seems he was drawing a self portrait:

    An anti-feminist Melbourne blogger who defaced a memorial to the slain comedian Eurydice Dixon in a “political statement” has launched an appeal, saying he previously had an incompetent lawyer.

    Andrew Nolch, 29, pleaded guilty in September to criminal damage for painting a 25-metre-long penis on the grass at the Princes Park memorial in Carlton North, days after Dixon was raped and killed….

    …After his initial sentence last month Nolch said Dixon’s death had been used to promote an anti-male agenda.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/05/man-who-pleaded-guilty-to-defacing-eurydice-dixon-memorial-appeals

  7. You can now be arrested for a sit-in in the USA?

    More than 300 protesters, including the comedian Amy Schumer, have been arrested at the US Capitol in Washington as they made a final, desperate appeal to senators to reject the embattled supreme court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

    Demonstrators chanted, unfurled banners and staged a sit-in at a Senate office building, one day before the body was poised to take its first vote on the judge’s nomination to America’s highest bench.
    …..
    By late afternoon demonstrators marched directly to the scene of the debate. Thousands packed the atrium of the Hart Senate office building, while streams of protesters flooded each floor with chants of “Our court” and “Justice now”. Many spread out banners and sat on the floor, then were put in plastic handcuffs by law enforcement and led away.

    US Capitol police said 302 people were arrested. Among them was Schumer, who is involved with the Time’s Up movement against sexual violence and harassment and is a distant relative of the the Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, and the model Emily Ratajkowski.

    “Today I was arrested protesting the Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh, a man who has been accused by multiple women of sexual assault,” Ratajkowski wrote on Twitter. “Men who hurt women can no longer be placed in positions of power.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/04/kavanaugh-supreme-court-protests-washington?utm_term=R3VhcmRpYW4gVG9kYXkgVUstMTgxMDA1&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUK&CMP=GTUK_email

  8. Aunt Mavis

    I have a veritable drawer of my virtual filing cabinet devoted to Alan Jones misdemeanours – usually saved for when Liberal politicians bend over and give in to his predilections.

    I can drag out more if you want, like his sojourn at Kings School or selection policy for the Wallabies…

  9. Good evening all,

    Re Stuart Robert.

    I may be a bit slow but why would Stuart Robert, as a back bencher at the time, be claiming home internet costs ?

    Would he not have a electorate office equiped with internet at which offical electorate related day today business is undertaken?

    Cheers.

  10. Sprocket_:

    I think you’re being homophobic.

    Even though he’s apparently gay, his outrageous views should not be judged by virtue of his sexuality.

  11. poroti says:
    Friday, October 5, 2018 at 6:57 pm
    Sprocket_

    Must be wonderful for a pollie. Get caught ripping off your employer (stealing ?) a ‘whoops’, pay back the money and keep your job.

    _______________________

    And I’ll bet he finds a cheaper way to access the internet toot sweet!

  12. Maybe Labor could book the Opera House Roof for the month of the next Federal election.

    I mean, the precedent has been set, by no less a luminary than Alan Jones.

  13. Stuart Robert is such a non entity that Sandra Silly on Ten news in Sydney called him Robert Stuart.
    As for Alan Jones, don’t you worry about him, he was a tough coach. One wrong move and he would pull you off at half time.

  14. Sprocket_ says:
    Friday, October 5, 2018 at 6:57 pm
    Stuart Robert has not only been fleecing the taxpayer on internet expenses…

    Liberal politician Stuart Robert spent almost $17,000 of taxpayers’ money on “personalised letterhead stationery” during the final weeks of the financial year, more than five times the typical spend for an MP.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-05/mps-expense-claims-stuart-robert-spent-most-on-stationery/10328066

    Why does letterhead need to be printed?

    You just change your word processor to include the letterhead, and every letter you send includes that letterhead.

    Quills and inkpots have been superseded.

  15. don @ #528 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 6:01 pm

    Sprocket_ says:
    Friday, October 5, 2018 at 6:57 pm
    Stuart Robert has not only been fleecing the taxpayer on internet expenses…

    Liberal politician Stuart Robert spent almost $17,000 of taxpayers’ money on “personalised letterhead stationery” during the final weeks of the financial year, more than five times the typical spend for an MP.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-05/mps-expense-claims-stuart-robert-spent-most-on-stationery/10328066

    Why does letterhead need to be printed?

    You just change your word processor to include the letterhead, and every letter you send includes that letterhead.

    Quills and inkpots have been superseded.

    Stationery expenses are a common end of financial year cash splash of surplus funds before they are lost to the new financial year. As are newsletters, fridge magnets, calendars that are tied to the financial year rather than the calendar year etc.

  16. ‘doyley says:
    Friday, October 5, 2018 at 7:50 pm

    Good evening all,

    Re Stuart Robert.

    I may be a bit slow but why would Stuart Robert, as a back bencher at the time, be claiming home internet costs ?’

    Ministers do 24/7. Home internet costs would be a standard work cost.
    But is extremely difficult to imagine any minister using that much data, even for ministerial work purposes.
    My bet is that he was billing the taxpayer for non-ministerial personal profit -related expenses.
    Which is an overlap of why he got into ministerial hot water last time.
    Not the brightest tool in the shed, is our Robert.
    Given the shit the Liberals are already in for backing the Robber Banks etc, etc, etc, I thought it was astonishing that Smirko whisked Robert into the ministry AND into Treasury.

  17. Simon

    I think maybe we are arguing at cross purposes.

    I was trying to get at places where there are large ehtnic differences very much tied to regions.

  18. Late Riser @ #492 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    Boerwar @ #489 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 6:49 pm

    late riser

    ‘Rangers used tranquiliser darts and net guns to capture the animals from rocky ridges and slopes within the Olympic National Park, located about 160 kilometres west of Seattle.’

    Is that a euphemism? The Pacific Ocean is 160 km west of Seattle.

    Not to my knowledge, but it could be. 😉 Did you have something in mind? (Maybe a lazy editor slipped in an extra 100.)

    Nothing around Seattle is as the Crow flies – too many sounds. 160 km is the western border of the Olympic National Park – where the HQ is. The rocky ridges and slopes are quite close to the sea. I’m surprised that the animals could find the urine in the constant rain.

  19. Puffytmd:

    I detest Jones. I think he’s a fraud. But his commentary should be viewed neutrally, not by his ostensible sexual preference, which I think sprocket implied.

  20. Robert strikes me as one of those blokes you keep close. A dangerous one to be out of favour with.

    He hung on as a Minister last time until his position became really, really untenable.

    His trudge to the despatch box to declare he “had nothing to add to my previous answer” while Dreyfus was filleting him was great to watch.

    He has been described in other places as a great fundraiser. The Tories need all the help they can get on that count.

  21. You don’t need to print in colour if you have letterheads. That actually saves money.

    Also if you are doing form letters, like mailouts, there are printing options which cost significantly less than laser or ink jet per sheet if you are doing a few thousand letters.

    Also the ink can go to the edge of the page on letterhead.

  22. Boerwar,

    Thanks for your reply.

    The reason I was querying the internet expense is because at the time the cost was incurred Robert was a back bencher. He was only reinstated as assistant treasurer in August.

    Anyway, with all the ongoing internals happening at the moment within the Libs I am sure more is on the way.

    Cheers and a great night to you.

  23. From today’s Crikey, looks like another series to follow.

    Over the past month, Australia has lost a prime minister and the ABC has lost its chair and managing director. You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to know that one media organisation — led by one media mogul — was instrumental in fuelling and encouraging that turmoil. Today we begin a series looking at the shadow of fear that hovers permanently over Australian democracy.

    What a pervasive influence Murdoch has been on our democracy, as well as that of the UK and the US.

  24. rossmcg @ #537 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:14 pm

    Robert strikes me as one of those blokes you keep close. A dangerous one to be out of favour with.

    He hung on as a Minister last time until his position became really, really untenable.

    His trudge to the despatch box to declare he “had nothing to add to my previous answer” while Dreyfus was filleting him was great to watch.

    He has been described in other places as a great fundraiser. The Tories need all the help they can get on that count.

    “Great fundraiser” = stays bribed. The Liberal Party is over next May.

  25. rhwombat @ #537 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:13 pm

    Late Riser @ #492 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    Boerwar @ #489 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 6:49 pm

    late riser

    ‘Rangers used tranquiliser darts and net guns to capture the animals from rocky ridges and slopes within the Olympic National Park, located about 160 kilometres west of Seattle.’

    Is that a euphemism? The Pacific Ocean is 160 km west of Seattle.

    Not to my knowledge, but it could be. 😉 Did you have something in mind? (Maybe a lazy editor slipped in an extra 100.)

    Nothing around Seattle is as the Crow flies – too many sounds. 160 km is the western border of the Olympic National Park – where the HQ is. The rocky ridges and slopes are quite close to the sea. I’m surprised that the animals could find the urine in the constant rain.

    100 miles by car? That’s a reasonable explanation for the distance.

    We lived in Seattle for 18 years but never visited the park. (I know. Sad.) I am told the goats will butt you off the path, which is a problem on steep hills.

    And yes on the rain. I kid you not, I saw cars with moss growing on them. (Regular, driving about at the mall cars)

  26. Confessions

    As I said years ago. Murdoch’s influence is a cancer on the ‘Anglo-Saxon’ world’s democracy. Although there is the depressing thought that if not him there would be another. 🙁

  27. rhwombat:

    Nothing around Seattle is as the Crow flies – too many sounds. 160 km is the western border of the Olympic National Park – where the HQ is. The rocky ridges and slopes are quite close to the sea. I’m surprised that the animals could find the urine in the constant rain.

    _________________________________

    Reminds me of that old joke:

    This bloke from Florida dies and waits in line for judgment. He notices that some souls go right into heaven, while Satan throws others into a burning pit. But every so often, instead of hurling a poor soul into the fire, the devil tosses him aside. Curious, the bloke from Florida asks Satan, “Excuse me, but why are you tossing them aside instead of flinging them into hell with the others?”

    “They’re from Seattle,” Satan replies. “They’re too wet to burn.”

  28. Late Riser @ #542 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    rhwombat @ #537 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 8:13 pm

    Late Riser @ #492 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    Boerwar @ #489 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 6:49 pm

    late riser

    ‘Rangers used tranquiliser darts and net guns to capture the animals from rocky ridges and slopes within the Olympic National Park, located about 160 kilometres west of Seattle.’

    Is that a euphemism? The Pacific Ocean is 160 km west of Seattle.

    Not to my knowledge, but it could be. 😉 Did you have something in mind? (Maybe a lazy editor slipped in an extra 100.)

    Nothing around Seattle is as the Crow flies – too many sounds. 160 km is the western border of the Olympic National Park – where the HQ is. The rocky ridges and slopes are quite close to the sea. I’m surprised that the animals could find the urine in the constant rain.

    100 miles by car? That’s a reasonable explanation for the distance.

    We lived in Seattle for 18 years but never visited the park. (I know. Sad.) I am told the goats will butt you off the path, which is a problem on steep hills.

    And yes on the rain. I kid you not, I saw cars with moss growing on them. (Regular, driving about at the mall cars)

    I hiked and climbed in Olympic NP while I was doing a post-doc in Seattle several decades ago – it’s where I learned to that climbing in snow is drier and a lot more pleasant than climbing in rain.

  29. B.S. Fairman says:
    Friday, October 5, 2018 at 8:14 pm
    You don’t need to print in colour if you have letterheads. That actually saves money.

    Also if you are doing form letters, like mailouts, there are printing options which cost significantly less than laser or ink jet per sheet if you are doing a few thousand letters.

    Also the ink can go to the edge of the page on letterhead.

    ________________________

    You mean… people actually write paper letters?

    Whoooeee!

    I haven’t printed a paper letter for years. Anyhow, I don’t know where the stamps are kept! Nor do I know what the correct postage for a letter is, so knowing where the stamps are kept is not much use to me anyhow.

  30. “supposedly Julius Ceasar from one of the Roman provinces it is believed”

    Ummm. No.

    Old Patrician stock who came to Rome after their Kingdom of Alba Longa was incorporated into the Roman State. Reputedly traced his linage back to Aneaus, Troy and the Godess Venus. His grandmother was a Marsi – ancient Plebian nobility reputedly descended from Mars. His mother was an Aurelia Cotta – another ancient plebian noble family. He was born and raised in the Subura – a slum – however his mother had a large Insular apartment building as her dowry and the family occupied the entire lower floor of the Insular.

    Now Caesar’s uncle by marriage – Gaius Marius – the Third Founder of Rome – he was a provincial nobody from Apurium – a village in modern day Lazio about 100km away from Rome.

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