More Monday miscellany

A summary of federal preselection developments, much of it relating to Tasmanian Senate tickets.

We’re in an off-week for federal opinion polling, although we may get geographic and demographic breakdowns from Newspoll – the leadership change had broken up their usual schedule of quarterly publication, and they have already published the results from the end of the Turnbull epoch. So here’s a summary of preselection news. Note the post below on the Wentworth by-election, and the one below that on the US mid-terms, courtesy of Adrian Beaumont.

• After successful lobbying from Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and Mathias Cormann, Richard Colbeck will head the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket. Earlier reports indicated he would again be dumped, as he was in 2016 – initially costing him his seat, before he won it back on the countback that resulted from Stephen Parry’s Section 44-related disqualification. Claire Chandler, a conservative backed by Eric Abetz, is number two, with Hobart councillor Tanya Denison number three. The presence of two women on the ticket makes a change from the usual form of the state party, which last had a woman in federal parliament in 2002. Those who missed out included Brett Whiteley, who held Braddon from 2013 to 2016 and failed to win it back in the Super Saturday by-election, and Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby.

• Tasmanian Labor, on the other hand, has persisted in dumping Senator Lisa Singh to number four, despite her historic success in having below-the-line voters overturn her demotion in 2016. This reflects the party’s persistence in favouring the claim of John Short, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, who will be number three. The top two positions go to incumbents of the Left and Right, Carol Brown and Catryna Bilyk.

• Ann Sudmalis’s retirement in the dicey New South Wales seat of Gilmore leaves in the field her prospective preselection challenger, Grant Schultz, a real estate agent and the son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz. However, Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports “the moderate faction of the Liberal Party believes it can retain its hold on the seat and find a replacement for Ms Sudmalis”.

• Chris O’Keefe of Nine News reports Hughes MP Craig Kelly has been approached to run in the marginal state seat of East Hills, to smooth over his likely preselection defeat in his existing seat at the hands of Kent Johns. Kelly appeared to scupper his chances when he suggested forgiving Russia for the MH17 disaster was “the price we have to pay” for “good relations going forward”.

• Perin Davey, a Riverina water policy specialist, has won preselection to succeed the retiring John “Wacka” Williams as the Nationals’ New South Wales Senate candidate. The existing coalition agreement gives the Nationals the difficult third position on the ticket, but Joe Kelly of The Australian reports the party is considering breaking away to run its own ticket. To this end it has chosen a full slate of four candidates, rounded out by “small business owner Sam Farraway, Gunnedah Mayor Jamie Chaffey and Wagga-based farmer Paul Cocking”.

• Skye Kakoschke-Moore has been confirmed as the lead South Australian Senate candidate for the Centre Alliance, confirming that Nick Xenophon will stand by the pledge he made at the time of his failed run for state parliament that he would not run at the federal election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,067 comments on “More Monday miscellany”

Comments Page 39 of 42
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  1. Steve777:

    Trump voters truly believe he media tells lies about him, and that everything he says is true. They really do believe he is a hugely successful business man, rather than the con artist and tax-avoiding scammer he really is.

  3. I think there needs to be a bit of reality re boat people; we have spent billions of dollars on bullshit.

    If you really care about illegal immigration there has always been more coming by plane than piddling little stream coming by boat.

    And if you really care about a few thousand people risking their lives to come by sea; I bet it was the tow back not creating a expensive living hell that did it.

    And for this nonsense that we are going to stop people taking the risk of killing themselves by creating something worse; and them claiming the high moral road; give me a break; there is a limit to bullshit.

  4. There is no way Rex would preference Labor over LNP. He bags Labor relentlessly, while is mute on what the Libs get up to.

    I think he will vote 1 Coal as he is just a Lib stoge.

  5. Steve777: “By any rational view, the “Cash for Comment” scandal in 1999 should have permanently killed Jones’ career in media. That together with incidents such as quoting a character in a novel as an expert in international relations. He should have lost all credibility.”

    The thing about right-wing spruikers is that their audiences really don’t care what sort of people they are. All they want is for the spruikers to keep saying the right stuff: government is too big, out of touch with ordinary people and soft on crime, there are too many migrants, people should be made to work harder, etc.

    One example of this tendency that always struck me was the career of Pat Buchanan in the US, who for many years was a darling of the evangelical rednecks, roaming the country talking about how the people inside the beltway were completely out of touch, etc, etc.

    Buchanan was in fact not an evangelical but a Catholic. He grew up inside the beltway, went to Georgetown Uni, and his sister was a Republican apparatchik. But none of these things mattered, because he kept saying the stuff that his fan base wanted to hear.

    Alan Jones is much the same. I cannot understand how anyone can possibly enjoy listening to him: to me he evokes traumatic memories of being dressed down by terrifying Deputy Principals as a prelude to being given six of the best. But his predominantly OAP audience seems to just lap it all up.

  6. Someone said WA was warm/hot and fine this time of year. It’s basically been raining since halfway across the Nullarbor and not looking like clearing soon.
    Must talk to Julie about the weather .

  7. Hopefully someone here knows this: has any polling been done on the popularity of Labor’s policy to phase out negative gearing and CGT concessions? I support this policy on grounds of socioeconomic equity, so I am predisposed to believe it would be popular, but I want to know what Australians as a whole think. (My reasons for opposing negative gearing and discounted CGT significantly predate the long boom in house prices since the late 1990’s, and also have nothing to do with just opening up extra revenue to fund more “goodies”.)

  8. frednk @ #1903 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 7:11 pm

    I think there needs to be a bit of reality re boat people; we have spent billions of dollars on bullshit.

    If you really care about illegal immigration there has always been more coming by plane than piddling little stream coming by boat.

    And if you really care about a few thousand people risking their lives to come by sea; I bet it was the tow back not creating a expensive living hell that did it.

    And for this nonsense that we are going to stop people taking the risk of killing themselves by creating something worse; and them claiming the high moral road; give me a break; there is a limit to bullshit.

    Well said.
    There should be a limit to bullshit, but just like lies lately, who knows where that limit resides.

  11. frednk: “If you really care about illegal immigration there has always been more coming by plane than piddling little stream coming by boat.”

    Yes, but these are overstayers. Most will be caught eventually, and will then end up being sent home (unless, perhaps, they are au pairs). Relatively few seek aslyum, as they typically come from countries whose citizens have comparatively little chance of lodging a successful claim.

  13. I have been waiting for the first 40 degree day here in Marble Bar. There was a bit of cloud early this afternoon, otherwise might have got higher. Glad that long, cold winter, (for Marble Bar), is over.

  14. Davidwh

    Someone said WA was warm/hot and fine this time of year. It’s basically been raining since halfway across the Nullarbor and not looking like clearing soon.
    Must talk to Julie about the weather .

    Well I have just been sitting in the sun on the front porch. Pretty nice conditions here in Perth.

  15. Norseman raining. Esperance raining. Hopetoun raining. Albany raining. I guess it will be raining in Perth some time next week.

  17. meher baba says:
    Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 7:15 pm

    Steve777: “By any rational view, the “Cash for Comment” scandal in 1999 should have permanently killed Jones’ career in media. That together with incidents such as quoting a character in a novel as an expert in international relations. He should have lost all credibility.”
    ___________________________________________
    I would have thought that his audience would have died off by now, but he seems to keep finding em .

  22. Davidwh

    Welcome to WA. you are heading into some typical changeable spring weather. Next week in Perth should be fine and mid 20s . Perfect.

  23. Big day out for me and in my absence disaster struck.

    Rex Rex Douglas made a hit run attack using a cunningly camouflaged patrol boat, hid himself in a closet and leaped out at the most opportune moment, stuck a clever blow and retreated under cover of a southerly squall. 🙄

    Cato vs Clouseau – The Pink Panther Strikes Again

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA8QrOAghZ0

    Mr. Wayne may be preparing another offensive to take advantage of todays how-de-do ❗ 🙄

    Still raining in Newcastle and more expected for the rest of the week. 😇

  25. Wot fun! There are currently three outliers in the Newspoll-poll and 37 inliers. Statistics is merely messing about with numbers. Understanding those numbers is something else. Though BK, Steve777 et al. do point to a (mild) concern, since this is meant to be fun any value from 0 to 100 is good. And I’ll show who picked what. We’ll see how it goes. Evidence based. 🙂

  26. Re Shorten and boats,
    Stopping the boats policy has tremendous approval and is now completely accepted policy. PM Morrison did not do it, ex-PM Abbott did. Mr Morrison carried out orders but Abbott took the flack with it and there was a lot.

    Anyways, if Bill Shorten could bring himself to say something along the lines of respecting and admiring T Abbott’s policy and its success, and will not change it, he will do well. Just acknowledging someone else’s success – it is difficult for some but is mature and people respect it. is my opinion.

  28. adrian @ #1908 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 7:18 pm

    frednk @ #1903 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 7:11 pm

    I think there needs to be a bit of reality re boat people; we have spent billions of dollars on bullshit.

    If you really care about illegal immigration there has always been more coming by plane than piddling little stream coming by boat.

    And if you really care about a few thousand people risking their lives to come by sea; I bet it was the tow back not creating a expensive living hell that did it.

    And for this nonsense that we are going to stop people taking the risk of killing themselves by creating something worse; and them claiming the high moral road; give me a break; there is a limit to bullshit.

    Well said.
    There should be a limit to bullshit, but just like lies lately, who knows where that limit resides.

    Donald Trump proves there is no limit to bullshit!

  29. Boerwar

    The recent start of N/S Korea clearing land mines together and a planned search of remains at a particular battle site gives me a lot of hope.

  30. “Stopping the boats policy has tremendous approval… “

    So did segregation, apartheid, the White Australia Policy and, for that matter, any number of pogroms. That doesn’t make it right.

  31. prettyone @ #1926 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 7:44 pm

    Re Shorten and boats,
    Stopping the boats policy has tremendous approval and is now completely accepted policy. PM Morrison did not do it, ex-PM Abbott did. Mr Morrison carried out orders but Abbott took the flack with it and there was a lot.

    Anyways, if Bill Shorten could bring himself to say something along the lines of respecting and admiring T Abbott’s policy and its success, and will not change it, he will do well. Just acknowledging someone else’s success – it is difficult for some but is mature and people respect it. is my opinion.

    What an ugly thing you be prettyone.

  32. Abbott exclusively used “boats” to boost his own political fortunes out of all proportion with the actual problem.

    It wasn’t a policy success, it was a dirty deed.


  33. meher baba says:
    Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 7:22 pm

    frednk: “If you really care about illegal immigration there has always been more coming by plane than piddling little stream coming by boat.”

    Yes, but these are overstayers. Most will be caught eventually, and will then end up being sent home (unless, perhaps, they are au pairs). Relatively few seek aslyum, as they typically come from countries whose citizens have comparatively little chance of lodging a successful claim.

    So say you.

    Call me silly but there are a lot of better things I can think of to spend a few billion dollars on.

    Whoooo Whooo, boats, boats, what a load of unmitigated cods wollop.

    The one word slogan.
    Boats.
    For voters with the attention span of a git.

  34. @C@t

    Cud Chewer @ #1931 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 5:25 pm

    C@t if Rex only comes here to do that, he’s wasting his time, don’t you think?

    Not really. Only our god knows how many eyeballs look at this site, but I’m sure it’s more than a few and getting to every single one of them is the aim of people like Rex posting what they do here.

    I agree C@t. I have often wondered why some posters come here with the obvious aim of proselytising a bunch of regular posters, who have a political orientation centred on the centre left, with a Gaussian distribution around said position. One day, when I retire, I will amuse myself by working out how to quantify this Gaussian distribution, but that will not be anytime soon.

    Like you, I have concluded that this is Australia’s pre-eminent psephology blog, and so many eyeballs will be attracted to this site, even if they do not stay long, let alone post.

    So, e.g. seeing Rex Douglas’s posts on why Labor is to be abhorred, or others posters contentions that Labor / Liberals are same / same, may just persuade a small number of people to be anti-Labor. Some of those will be swayed to vote for apparently left-leaning minor parties, but still preference the ALP over the LNP. However, the work of the proselytisers may mean a few do the opposite, especially if their family /friends are LNP voters. It chips a few voters off from Labor to the LNP.

    Elections in Australia are won by persuading about 3 – 4% of swinging voters to change their vote. Every little bit helps!

  35. adrian: “There should be a limit to bullshit, but just like lies lately, who knows where that limit resides.”

    I’d like to think that the limit encompasses your nonsense about professional, but almost certainly left-leaning ABC journos being Liberal stooges.

    Fran Kelly, Leigh Sales, Virginia Trioli, Geraldine Doogue, etc, etc. Which of these journos ever said anything in support of border protection, expressed climate change scepticism, opposed SSM, suggested cuts to social welfare payments, argued for lower taxes, expressed support for shooters or fishers, or argued for an increase in defence spending? None of them, because none of them are the remotest bit inclined towards the right side of politics.

    What they have all done from time to time is to have the temerity to be critical of the Labor Party. How dare they!? Don’t they understand that the Labor Party is perfect and an unbiased journo can only attack the Coalition?

    Talk about BS.

  37. Stop the boats is supported by about 87% of Australians, according to any poll. Any.

    With strong border protection laws it is the most successful policy perhaps for 20 years, because of long term implications economically and socially.

    Trust me – if Labor goes against this – they have no hope of winning any election for 10 years, at least.
    PM Morrison knows that. It is his trump card and he will use it close to the next election like you would not believe.

  38. I am also intrigued as to why psephology blogs attract a centre-left audience.

    This seems to be a world-wide trend, including the excellent Nate Silver’s 538 blog.

    Does the exercising of reason, and due consideration of facts, lead naturally to a centre-left political position?

  40. Off topic.

    “About 8,000 light-years away, a giant planet circles an aging star, marching once around its sun in a single Earth-year. But that planet, called Kepler 1625b, might not be traveling completely alone.
    Scientists now suspect the planet’s skies are filled by an orbiting mega-moon, a stunningly large world the size of Neptune that may be the first moon spotted outside our solar system.”

    Weird giant may be the first known alien moon – National Geographic
    https://apple.news/ARlOfBDQ2T_WGxsbS053Gxw

  43. Douglas and Milko @ #1938 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 8:01 pm

    I am also intrigued as to why psephology blogs attract a centre-left audience.

    This seems to be a world-wide trend, including the excellent Nate Silver’s 538 blog.

    Does the exercising of reason, and due consideration of facts, lead naturally to a centre-left political position?

    If the facts don’t fit the prejudice, find another way to make your point!

  47. Douglas and Milko says:
    Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 8:01 pm

    I am also intrigued as to why psephology blogs attract a centre-left audience.
    ________________________
    25% percent of right wingers think political discussion a waste of time. 25% prefer to concentrate on making money. Another 25% don’t care about the views of others. THe Final 25% are torturing cats or something.

  48. Speaking of Laura Tingle, Sam Neil is over this way with Michael Caton and Asher Keddie filming in Mt Barker. There have been several star sightings in Albany and surrounds, resulting in a minor public fracas and excited social media selfies.

  50. meher baba @ #1935 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 8:00 pm

    adrian: “There should be a limit to bullshit, but just like lies lately, who knows where that limit resides.”

    I’d like to think that the limit encompasses your nonsense about professional, but almost certainly left-leaning ABC journos being Liberal stooges.

    Fran Kelly, Leigh Sales, Virginia Trioli, Geraldine Doogue, etc, etc. Which of these journos ever said anything in support of border protection, expressed climate change scepticism, opposed SSM, suggested cuts to social welfare payments, argued for lower taxes, expressed support for shooters or fishers, or argued for an increase in defence spending? None of them, because none of them are the remotest bit inclined towards the right side of politics.

    What they have all done from time to time is to have the temerity to be critical of the Labor Party. How dare they!? Don’t they understand that the Labor Party is perfect and an unbiased journo can only attack the Coalition?

    Talk about BS.

    Bullshit is usually in the eyes of the thrower!

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