We’re in an off-week for federal opinion polling, although we may get geographic and demographic breakdowns from Newspoll – the leadership change had broken up their usual schedule of quarterly publication, and they have already published the results from the end of the Turnbull epoch. So here’s a summary of preselection news. Note the post below on the Wentworth by-election, and the one below that on the US mid-terms, courtesy of Adrian Beaumont.
• After successful lobbying from Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and Mathias Cormann, Richard Colbeck will head the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket. Earlier reports indicated he would again be dumped, as he was in 2016 – initially costing him his seat, before he won it back on the countback that resulted from Stephen Parry’s Section 44-related disqualification. Claire Chandler, a conservative backed by Eric Abetz, is number two, with Hobart councillor Tanya Denison number three. The presence of two women on the ticket makes a change from the usual form of the state party, which last had a woman in federal parliament in 2002. Those who missed out included Brett Whiteley, who held Braddon from 2013 to 2016 and failed to win it back in the Super Saturday by-election, and Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby.
• Tasmanian Labor, on the other hand, has persisted in dumping Senator Lisa Singh to number four, despite her historic success in having below-the-line voters overturn her demotion in 2016. This reflects the party’s persistence in favouring the claim of John Short, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, who will be number three. The top two positions go to incumbents of the Left and Right, Carol Brown and Catryna Bilyk.
• Ann Sudmalis’s retirement in the dicey New South Wales seat of Gilmore leaves in the field her prospective preselection challenger, Grant Schultz, a real estate agent and the son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz. However, Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports “the moderate faction of the Liberal Party believes it can retain its hold on the seat and find a replacement for Ms Sudmalis”.
• Chris O’Keefe of Nine News reports Hughes MP Craig Kelly has been approached to run in the marginal state seat of East Hills, to smooth over his likely preselection defeat in his existing seat at the hands of Kent Johns. Kelly appeared to scupper his chances when he suggested forgiving Russia for the MH17 disaster was “the price we have to pay” for “good relations going forward”.
• Perin Davey, a Riverina water policy specialist, has won preselection to succeed the retiring John “Wacka” Williams as the Nationals’ New South Wales Senate candidate. The existing coalition agreement gives the Nationals the difficult third position on the ticket, but Joe Kelly of The Australian reports the party is considering breaking away to run its own ticket. To this end it has chosen a full slate of four candidates, rounded out by “small business owner Sam Farraway, Gunnedah Mayor Jamie Chaffey and Wagga-based farmer Paul Cocking”.
• Skye Kakoschke-Moore has been confirmed as the lead South Australian Senate candidate for the Centre Alliance, confirming that Nick Xenophon will stand by the pledge he made at the time of his failed run for state parliament that he would not run at the federal election.
” Trump tweets.”
He seems an amusing and sharp minded person. Sometimes says too much, but not afraid to be his own man, which is probably why the base like him so much. A genuine original, sometimes people really like that in politicians.
But the thing is, the American economy is going very well. Bringing people out of poverty is a great thing, the aspiration of all leaders.
Particularly miraculous is how Trump was able to start picking up the US economy seven years before he assumed office.
The confinement with no certainty of release, the lack of ‘normal’ facilities in a tropical hell-hole, no contact with family members, guards …
Torture.
Prettyone, do you bathe in saccarine?
prettyone @ #1846 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 5:39 pm
Luckily for the US, Trump has (so far) had little or no effect on the US economy. Most economic trends are pretty much identical during Trump’s presidency as they were during Obama’s presidency. Obama generally did well on most economic indicators, and Trump inherited that. Trump has not seen a noticeable improvement in any area except possibly ‘business sentiment’.
https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/646708799/fact-check-who-gets-credit-for-the-booming-u-s-economy
Boerwar
It was Bush who ushered in what they called the “post truth era” . The Donald however has taken the “post truth era” to ? The post reality era ?
Big A Adrian @ #1935 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 5:30 pm
And maybe you should inform yourself about the level of self harm, suicide and mental health issues for the Homeless in Australia before adopting a sanctimonious position on a boutique issue wrt the lives of most Australians.
Plus, nice little sidestep in disavowing responsibility for the deaths at sea that occur if The Greens’ policy of #LetThemCome is adopted. They really must have to check their ethics at the door to be able to support that one. As must you for supporting them.
At least I have been consistent on this issue. For too many years now I have been pointing out that logical inconsistency to The Greens camp followers here, and, not once have any of them been able to put up a valid rebuttal to the argument that, at the end of the day their policy is, ‘Out of sight, out of mind’ if they sink to the bottom of the ocean, but if they can exploit a running sore on Manus and Nauru with crocodile tears in parliament with their bestie, Joe Hockey, and use it as a stick to beat Labor with, well, they’re all in for that! Plus, the heart strings they can pull with their constant reference to a situation that has gone on for too long now but which they could have done something about, but chose not to when Labor were in power.
Honestly, their hypocrisy, and yours, on this issue repulses me.
Oh, and don’t try out The Greens’ latest artifice on me whereby you accuse me of only adopting the ‘Prevention of Deaths at Sea’ argument for my political convenience in some johnny-come-lately fashion as a convenient band aid to cover the fact I allegedly support this ‘torture’. That won’t wash either, as, to the best of my knowledge, I was one of the first, if not the first, to question here, almost 10 years ago, The Greens’ support of asylum seekers arriving by boat and looking the other way as the deaths at sea kept occurring, and I said, enough! It’s not right, it can’t ever be the right way to go and there has to be a better way.
Pity The Greens in the Senate didn’t agree and voted against Labor’s Regional Resettlement Plan.
So, actually, when you look at in it’s proper context like that, it’s really The Greens who are responsible for the ‘torture’ of the asylum seekers on Manus and Nauru. As they wouldn’t be there today if they had supported Labor, all those years ago. 🙂
Newspoll-poll update. If I missed anyone, please forgive and repost. I’ll be checking for a few more hours tonight and resuming again tomorrow. 🙂
PB mean: ALP 56.1 to 43.9 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 32
60 / 40 adrian
53 / 47 a r
53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
53 / 47 Asha Leu
52 / 48 ausdavo
54 / 46 autocrat
53.5 / 46.5 bilko
53 / 47 BK
53 / 47 Boerwar
53 / 47 Cud Chewer
95 / 5 Dan Gulberry
99.99999 / 1E-05 Darc
54 / 46 Don
52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
53 / 47 Gareth
54 / 46 Golly
53 / 47 Gorks
53 / 47 guytaur
53 / 47 imacca
53 / 47 jenauthor
53 / 47 Late Riser
54 / 46 Lynchpin
52 / 48 meher baba
55 / 45 Michael
53 / 47 Mr Ed
52 / 48 Player One
53.25 / 46.75 poroti
53 / 47 rhwombat
54 / 46 Sohar
52 / 48 Steve777
52.5 / 47.5 The Silver Bodgie
53 / 47 Upnorth
lets see……so the ABC Board appoint an unnamed *investigator* yet sack Guthrie the very next day when the investigation can barely have been started if at all.
Now the Board say they cannot comment because an investigation is underway.
They are taking the piss.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abc-board-hires-investigator-to-examine-explosive-michelle-guthrie-claims-20181004-p507ot.html
dave
Read “The ABC board has hired an investigator to examine explosive claims…”
Thought……….
dave @ #1859 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 5:54 pm
I agree. They have shown themselves to be both clueless and useless. They should all resign or be forcibly removed.
Cud Chewer @ #1931 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 5:25 pm
Not really. Only our god knows how many eyeballs look at this site, but I’m sure it’s more than a few and getting to every single one of them is the aim of people like Rex posting what they do here.
BW, on Rex, after my little effort banging my head against a brick wall this afternoon, I’m with you about just ignoring him.
If I remember correctly, the AFP ‘investigation’ about who leaked information to the press about Andrew Wilkie’s time in the ONA, still hasn’t been finalised.
53-47 for me.Hopefully it will settle there.
“Newspoll-poll update. If I missed anyone, please forgive and repost. I’ll be checking for a few more hours tonight and resuming again tomorrow. “
I would exclude from the averages the two entries that are obviously ‘taking the piss’. This would reduce the mean to about (EDIT) 53-47. Still optimistic, a level that Labor had not achieved since 1946, but then it is by and large an optimistic bunch here.
p
Trump has certainly had some help along the way from all sides.
But we have never had a major western leader with zero compunction about lying.
PB mean: ALP 56.1 to 43.9 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 32
____
You need to exclude the 99.99999 outlier from the calculations.
BK, beat me to it! Big gap between mean and median is the giveaway that the former is being excessively dragged up by such outliers (there are two of them).
I just hope that Labor stays ahead until the election and until the day after. Longer would be okay as well. 🙂
Boerwar
Bush would give him a run for his money in that department. Difference being Bush’s lies were about serious things but Trump, it’s the class and quality of ‘reality tv’. Mind you I think a fair quantity of it by Trump is deliberate trolling, ‘Liberal baiting’.
Post Trump US will be ‘interesting’ .
‘poroti says:
Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 6:18 pm
Boerwar
Bush would give him a run for his money in that department. Difference being Bush’s lies were about serious things but Trump, it’s the class and quality of ‘reality tv’. Mind you I think a fair quantity of it by Trump is deliberate trolling, ‘Liberal baiting’.
Post Trump US will be ‘interesting’ .’
I have a sort of idea that Bush’s lies were normal political lies. They were anchored somewhere or other in some sort of rational version of reality. Trump’s lies are, IMO, insane.
As for Post Trump, the less interesting it is, the happier I’ll be!
Am i right that two of Collins, Murkowski and Flake have to oppose Kavanaugh with no Dem defections? Its 51-49 with Kyl in McCain’s seat?
Pshew i dunno….
Steve777, I agree that actual election results almost never yield a National TPP of more than 53-54% for the winner. FWIW, although I predict 55/45 for the next Newspoll (Newspolks have had a much larger historic range in TPP’s than elections), I predict Labor to win the next election with 53.5% TPP.
Not that it makes any diff, but the most gutting would be any dems getting him over the line – followed by a 50-50 and Pence putting him on… id just be extra sick!
Late Riser
55/45
How Murdoch produces fake news – turning a Labor pledge of $1.75 billion into $10 billion:
“Families will be promised a $1.75 billion funding boost in a dramatic Labor pledge to widen access to preschool, offering new subsidies to help children learn more at a younger age.” (Fairfax)
“Investment cut to fund kindies
4:30PMRACHEL BAXENDALE
Bill Shorten says changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax will fund his $10bn package to boost preschool (Oz)
Boerwar
Dubya Shrub and the nutters from the likes of PNAC may not have been firmly attached to reality or the rational as we’d like but they were at least somewhat of a continuation and so familiar. Trump ?????????????
Who knows the schemozzle of the Trump presidency may yet see N/S Korea at peace. The previous ‘business as usual’ administrations being too efficient in seeing it did not happen 🙂
p
Every cloud has a silver lining? Hope so!
Jackol: “Regardless, the ALP are clearly talking about ways of getting the people involved off of Manus and Nauru. That doesn’t sound like the ALP advocating indefinite detention to me.”
The Libs also managed to get some people off the islands. But, whoever is in government, I would call it indefinite detention: people can only get off the islands if either a) they are prepared to go home (which the occasional one has been, but not many); or b) are resettled to a third country. Up to now, there haven’t been sufficient offers for everyone on the islands to be resettled. Perhaps Bill and Jacinda can cook something up between them for the rest to go to NZ.
I think Labor’s plans to resettle people in NZ will come under attack from the Libs during the election campaign, on the basis that – despite the changes to Australian migration and social security laws re NZ citizens – it still does provide something of an opportunity for some people to get into Australia through the backdoor. And, IMO, people trying to come to Australia by boat and ending up in NZ isn’t the ideal solution: a far better idea was the Malaysia solution, but we all know what happened to that.
Late Riser @ #1858 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 5:53 pm
citizen: “Investment cut to fund kindies
4:30PMRACHEL BAXENDALE
Bill Shorten says changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax will fund his $10bn package to boost preschool (Oz).”
This could be a mistake, because all the earlier Oz coverage talked about the package costing $1.75bn.
I have just caught up with the details of the package. I hadn’t realised that it was being funded by the CGT and neg gearing changes.
Very clever: at a time of falling house prices (with Saul Eslake, who I take seriously, talking of the risk of a rapid collapse of the market), but rents remaining high, these policies have turned into total stinkers. But Labor had previously made such a thing about them that it would be difficult to reverse them now. So the answer is to promise to spend the increased revenue on all sorts of nice stuff. This gives Labor theoretically more in its war chest than the Libs, allowing them to match any tax cuts ScoMo pulls out of his hat, while also promising lots of new spending that the Libs can’t afford.
meher baba @ #1884 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 3:33 pm
They wouldn’t become NZ citizens for 4-5 years minimum and then you want to deny them a right that NZ citizens have.
How would you identify them?
And the worst part of it would be, that some of them may be able to reunite with their families.
Very good post meher baba .
Malaysia solution not good enough for some……….what have we ended up with?
Now THIS wrt the asylum seekers on Nauru IS disgusting (and Mrs shellbell must be heartbroken):
https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/04/2018/1538626777/kids-everybody-nauru?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Monthly%20Today%20-%20Thursday%204%20October%202018&utm_content=The%20Monthly%20Today%20-%20Thursday%204%20October%202018+CID_dd31f267bb6ecd0c24365ae48cd2f522&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=READ%20ON
BiGD: “They wouldn’t become NZ citizens for 4-5 years minimum and then you want to deny them a right that NZ citizens have. How would you identify them? And the worst part of it would be, that some of them may be able to reunite with their families.”
I certainly wouldn’t propose to deny them any rights that other NZ citizens don’t have. But that’s the problem: if some of these people do eventually end up in Australia, they will will become pinups for the people smugglers, and we will start seeing the boats setting off once again.
The only thing that ultimately stops people trying to come to Australia is a demonstrable certainty that they will never be allowed to live here under any circumstances. Anything less than this is a step towards open borders.
Businesses crying poor again:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/wrong-time-retailers-slam-penalty-rates-increase-for-casuals-20180928-p506m3.html
It’s all part of God’s plan as explained in the movie that was mentioned earlier today on PB:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/03/the-trump-prophecy-film-god-election-mark-taylor
Late Riser
I’ll stick with 53 to 47 to Labor. Thanks.
meher baba @ #1890 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 3:50 pm
Bullshit!
C@t:
I don’t understand the issue with Nauru. I get the courts have no jurisdiction over Nauru, but aren’t the detention facilities run by Australia? The courts could compel the minister to withdraw from Nauru, yes?
And is Shellbell Geoffrey Watson? If so he is older than I imagined him to be.
Late Riser:
53-47 to Labor for my Newspoll prediction please!
ALP 54-46 L/NP
BiGD: “Bullshit!”
An eloquent and compelling argument. I can’t counter that.
mb –
If one were cynical one might think that Dutton and co haven’t been putting in much effort on that front.
Simply declaring that NZ, at least, would be ‘on’ under the ALP is a clear distinction of intent.
If boat turnbacks continue to be as successful as they have been then this is all completely moot.
Agreed. But the ALP are still talking about ‘regional processing solutions’; Malaysia (and hopefully other countries in the region) may still come onboard provided the Australian government can use a bit of diplomacy, a bit of strategic foreign aid boosting and generally a bit of international tact. Something to work on, and to my mind the ALP seem to be clearly on board for doing the work required. The current mob not so much.
meher baba @ #1898 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 3:58 pm
Well if you’re just going to peddle the Government’s lines, there’s not much else to say! 🙂
Late Riser
NewsPoll 50/50
BOOK IT
Good evening all,
Re the announcement today by Shorten.
The $1.75 billion is over the forward estimates and $10 billion over ten years.
Between now and December expect more big policy announcements by labor.
Two main reasons,
1) the government will go hard over the next three months re the negative gearing and dividend imputation polices.
The best way to counteract the ” property tax ” , battlers targeted by labor ” attack lines by the government and its media barrackers is to show how the revenue from those measures will actually be used to better the lives of everyday Australians. Platitudes about deficit and debt reduction will get lost in the noise of competing labor /government mantra. Simplifying it down to how he money will help improve the lives of australians and their families will have more impact.
2) labor had great success at connecting Turnbull with the big end of town. Not so much with Morrison. Change of tack and fight him on the policy front from the high ground.
Just my take anyway.
Cheers and a great night to all.
Trump voters are probably like Alan Jones (Sydney shock-jock) fans. They are very loyal and not deterred by reality.
By any rational view, the “Cash for Comment” scandal in 1999 should have permanently killed Jones’ career in media. That together with incidents such as quoting a character in a novel as an expert in international relations. He should have lost all credibility.
Yet it was barely a blip and he’s still going strong nearly 20 years later.
ALP 53-47 LNP