More Monday miscellany

A summary of federal preselection developments, much of it relating to Tasmanian Senate tickets.

We’re in an off-week for federal opinion polling, although we may get geographic and demographic breakdowns from Newspoll – the leadership change had broken up their usual schedule of quarterly publication, and they have already published the results from the end of the Turnbull epoch. So here’s a summary of preselection news. Note the post below on the Wentworth by-election, and the one below that on the US mid-terms, courtesy of Adrian Beaumont.

• After successful lobbying from Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and Mathias Cormann, Richard Colbeck will head the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket. Earlier reports indicated he would again be dumped, as he was in 2016 – initially costing him his seat, before he won it back on the countback that resulted from Stephen Parry’s Section 44-related disqualification. Claire Chandler, a conservative backed by Eric Abetz, is number two, with Hobart councillor Tanya Denison number three. The presence of two women on the ticket makes a change from the usual form of the state party, which last had a woman in federal parliament in 2002. Those who missed out included Brett Whiteley, who held Braddon from 2013 to 2016 and failed to win it back in the Super Saturday by-election, and Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby.

• Tasmanian Labor, on the other hand, has persisted in dumping Senator Lisa Singh to number four, despite her historic success in having below-the-line voters overturn her demotion in 2016. This reflects the party’s persistence in favouring the claim of John Short, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, who will be number three. The top two positions go to incumbents of the Left and Right, Carol Brown and Catryna Bilyk.

• Ann Sudmalis’s retirement in the dicey New South Wales seat of Gilmore leaves in the field her prospective preselection challenger, Grant Schultz, a real estate agent and the son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz. However, Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports “the moderate faction of the Liberal Party believes it can retain its hold on the seat and find a replacement for Ms Sudmalis”.

• Chris O’Keefe of Nine News reports Hughes MP Craig Kelly has been approached to run in the marginal state seat of East Hills, to smooth over his likely preselection defeat in his existing seat at the hands of Kent Johns. Kelly appeared to scupper his chances when he suggested forgiving Russia for the MH17 disaster was “the price we have to pay” for “good relations going forward”.

• Perin Davey, a Riverina water policy specialist, has won preselection to succeed the retiring John “Wacka” Williams as the Nationals’ New South Wales Senate candidate. The existing coalition agreement gives the Nationals the difficult third position on the ticket, but Joe Kelly of The Australian reports the party is considering breaking away to run its own ticket. To this end it has chosen a full slate of four candidates, rounded out by “small business owner Sam Farraway, Gunnedah Mayor Jamie Chaffey and Wagga-based farmer Paul Cocking”.

• Skye Kakoschke-Moore has been confirmed as the lead South Australian Senate candidate for the Centre Alliance, confirming that Nick Xenophon will stand by the pledge he made at the time of his failed run for state parliament that he would not run at the federal election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,067 comments on “More Monday miscellany”

Comments Page 3 of 42
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  1. adrian @ #57 Monday, October 1st, 2018 – 9:57 am

    I didn’t think it were possible, but the SMH website has plunged even further downmarket since the neign takeover.
    Mostly a waste of time.

    Adrian, not a lot of quality to pick from but the five most annoying household habits looks to be an award winner.

    When I was just a little bitty ……
    About 13 really. In, I think, 1953, I can remember spreading the broad sheet on the lounge room (drawing room to the superiors among us) floor and reading a huge story about one John Christie (murderer). Of course, in those days the most important thing was the comics. Are there comics any more ❓ I expect there has been a lot of water flowing down the river (hopefully carrying the bodies of my enemies) but the great stories appear to constitute an ever diminishing supply of bullshit and trivia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Christie_(murderer)

    E & OE ☮☕

  2. Senators Chris Coons and Jeff Flake agree Brett Kavanaugh is ‘over’ if there’s proof he lied to committee

    Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) said in an interview with “60 Minutes” that it was running for reelection he couldn’t have crossed the aisle to talk to his colleague about switching sides and stopping the Judiciary Committee vote on Brett Kavanaugh.

    In an interview beside Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), the two men also agreed that there’s no way they’ll be comfortable confirming if Kavanaugh was found to have lied.

    “Nomination’s over?” they were asked.

    “I would think so,” Coons said at the close of their interview.

    “Yeah,” Flake agree.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/senators-coons-flake-say-kavanaugh-done-proof-shows-lied-committee/

  3. guytaur @ #101 Monday, October 1st, 2018 – 7:54 am

    Barney

    Yes its only an end to democracy when the right is the side that is splitting. No problem when the Left became the Greens The DLP the Democrats etc.!!

    Labor has always been in a position to form a Government if the Liberals split then it would be unlikely that they could do so effectively. 🙂

  4. ”
    Barney in Go Dau says:
    Monday, October 1, 2018 at 10:14 am
    So!

    Husar’s situation would be no different if she was a member of a faction and an opposing faction had acted in the same way.

    Certainly Singh’s position can be explained by a lack of factional support. As popular as she seems to be with the voters it doesn’t seem she has much support within federal Labor.

    I haven’t heard any of her colleagues speak up in her defence.
    ”
    Where are Tanya P and Penny Wong (who are in leadership positions) doing anything about it. Especially Penny Wong, who is Senate ALP leader, is doing any thing about it. Wong do you remember 2013 SA Senate selections, when that factional boss, Don Randell, pushed you into slightly difficult spot & put himself into no. 1 spot. Then federal leadership intervened and put you in No.1 spot. Wong, you are where you are because somebody helped you on the way to this position.
    Is Lisa Singh not helped because she belongs to Minority group? Give me the reason why Lisa Singh not put proper winning spot.

  5. When I was in High school (a year or so ago) we used to go through an SMH editorial each week as part of the English course ‘analytical reading’ component of the course. Students were invited to pick it pieces for style, accuracy, readability and other aspects .
    Not worth the effort these days.

  6. ”
    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, October 1, 2018 at 10:22 am
    Kanye West is nuts and is proving it with increasing regularity.
    ”
    What do you expect. He is husband of KIm Kardashian and friend of Trump.

  7. Gutaur, Kiwibank is not currently in state ownership. Nearly all banking in NZ is in the hands of Australian banks, who gouge the NZ market remorselessly. There is no other People’s Bank in NZ.

    The call by NZ First to take Kiwibank into public hands in NZ seems to be driven by resentment that profits from banking are repatriated to Australia as much as by anything else. At the same time, Kiwibank is not a foreign-owned corporation.

  8. ”
    KayJay says:
    Monday, October 1, 2018 at 10:24 am
    Good morning all.

    A maths problem.

    Suppose citizen A (not his real name), in 2012 gets out of bed regularly each morning at or about 6. A.M.
    Then, 6 years later, consistently gets out of bed at or about 9 A.M.

    Question – how long until this specimen of deteriorating out and about time never gets out of bed at all ❓
    ”
    I am scrolling by

  9. FT Technology News
    ‏Verified account @fttechnews
    5m5 minutes ago

    Jack Ma relinquishes ownership of Alibaba’s legal structures

  10. phoenixRED:

    at 10:13 am:

    That’s classic, the defining moment of Trump’s presidency, further confirming the man’s lost his marbles. Actually, Kim doesn’t look too bad.

  11. briefly

    According to Wikipedia it looks pretty ‘state owned’.

    Kiwibank is owned by the New Zealand government and the company’s Board of Directors was chaired by former New Zealand Prime Minister Jim Bolger f

    Kiwibank Limited is a subsidiary of the state-owned enterprise New Zealand Post Limited, New Zealand Superannuation and the Accident Compensation Corporation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiwibank

  12. briefly

    In other words you have no real reason to object to a People’s Bank except for the fact that maximising profits for shareholders is what you are holding onto.

    No matter how you cut it the problem is not the government owning a bank as a competitor for you The problem is that there is a competitor in the market that does not have Profits as its lodestar to quote a certain US VP’s favourite word

  14. Ven

    ‘Is Lisa Singh not helped because she belongs to Minority group? Give me the reason why Lisa Singh not put proper winning spot.’

    Maybe her colleagues, the people who actually work with her, have a different perspective on her worth as a Senator.

    I’m more curious as to why, if her personal popularity is so high, they don’t put her into a marginal Tasmanian seat.

  17. zoomster

    Its not just Ven saying this stuff about Singh.

    See all the coverage last election. You could start with Dr Kevin Bonham’s.

  18. booleanbach

    I routinely use Herald-Sun op eds with VCAL English students for those purposes, mainly because they’re so easy to critique that a 16 year old who is verging on functionally illiterate can do so.

  20. Meta Starostin
    ‏ @Snow_Crash
    1h1 hour ago
    Replying to @NickRossTech

    Mr Milne was first appointed as NBN Co Director effective 11 November 2013 shortly after the article and the 2013 Election

  22. Aunt Mavis says: Monday, October 1, 2018 at 11:12 am

    phoenixRED:

    at 10:13 am:

    That’s classic, the defining moment of Trump’s presidency, further confirming the man’s lost his marbles. Actually, Kim doesn’t look too bad.

    ***************************************************************************

  24. guytaur:

    [‘…its lodestar to quote a certain US VP’s favourite word.’]

    You’re not per chance suggesting that it was VP Pence who penned that anonymous op-ed in the NYT?

  25. Booleanbach

    Where are extra GST billions coming from?

    Dodgy accounting. The parliament is full of people who can make two and two add up to any number you like.

  28. b
    IMO, the Tasmanian salmon fish farming will collapse, because of increased water temperatures alone, well before the Chilean industry.

  31. EVERALD COMPTON
    ‏ @EVERALDATLARGE
    15h15 hours ago

    In my school days back in 1930’s #Hitler gained total power in #Germany by closing down any #newsmedia that he declared to be biased. There are #politicians in Australia trying very hard to do exactly the same thing

  32. Rossmcg & Dan Gulberry:

    [‘It was the queens birthday in WA last week. The years seem to roll around faster I know …’]

    Thanks for the correction.

  33. KayJay @ #74 Monday, October 1st, 2018 – 10:24 am

    Good morning all.

    A maths problem.

    Suppose citizen A (not his real name), in 2012 gets out of bed regularly each morning at or about 6. A.M.
    Then, 6 years later, consistently gets out of bed at or about 9 A.M.

    Question – how long until this specimen of deteriorating out and about time never gets out of bed at all ❓

    Late risers untie!

  35. The Financial Services Industry is already saturated

    For a raft of reasons there is no need for government to introduce options other than those provided thru the market

    The shift in policy from 6 Pillars to 4 Pillars by Costello delivered what it did – and the results which we now know are a disaster

    The 4 Pillars are now selling off their Insurance and Fund Management arms, purchased after 6 Pillars became 4 Pillars

    Heyne has correctly assessed that rules were not followed and that rules were not enforced

    It is not the rules per se which are at fault – aside from 6 Pillars becoming 4 Pillars which is now being reversed by the market forcing sales – it is the adherence to those rules and the absence of enforcement

    What is not addressed is that decisions by banks across the spectrum of their operations are made by people

    Questioning voices are very significantly absent for a raft of reasons from ability to protection of position to ambition

    And that is a culture problem

    The problems encountered by the banking industry are many and varied from approval of loans to acquisition and deployment of Capital decisions

    Just to throw a blanket over the entire industry and conclude that “banks are criminal” does not address the complexity of the problems

  36. Murdoch’s take on Morrison’s “clever” GST ploy to save the furniture in WA – of course everything Morrison does is a vote winner:

    PM to sandbag seats with GST
    SEPTEMBER 30, 2018
    Scott Morrison will introduce legislation within weeks to lock in $7.2 billion of additional GST payments to the states, boosting the Coalition’s chances of saving five key seats in Western Australia at the federal election.

    https://www.outline.com/bTAzrp

  39. briefly @ #81 Monday, October 1st, 2018 – 8:36 am

    DG suggested a state-owned bank would be confined to providing car and other small personal loans, and act as a savings bank. This is the tiniest fraction of the banking sector. What would be the point? What significant difference to banking would this make?

    There would be a point there if that was what I actually suggested.

    I suggested that the “People’s Bank” should cover those types of loans AS WELL AS home loans. Home loans represent by far the largest portion of loans in the banking sector.

    The PBank would be restricted by not being allowed to lend money for commercial/business purposes.

    That would be the point. That’s what difference it would make to banking.

  40. Observer

    My question is simple. How come New Zealand can do it?

    More competition makes markets more efficient not less. First I have heard of market saturation as a reason against competition other than some people won’t be able to afford to e enter a market. Governments don’t have that problem

  42. Turnbull is starting to sound a bit like the “miserable ghosts” he is attacking.

    Malcolm Turnbull has dismissed former prime ministers Tony Abbott and Kevin Rudd as “miserable ghosts” who cannot move on from their time in power, sharing his opinion in an unscripted remark caught on tape in New York.

    Mr Turnbull also attacked the “crazy” leadership coup that ended his leadership five weeks ago and insisted his government could have won the next election if he had remained prime minister.

    But he vowed not to be driven by hate and declared his days in partisan politics were now over.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-blasts-tony-abbott-and-kevin-rudd-as-miserable-ghosts-20181001-p50711.html

  44. I should add that creating a People’s Bank would actually be a vote winner as well.

    It would negate a lot of antipathy towards Labor from both the left (Greens) and the right (One Nation). It would bring back voters that have drifted to those two extremes.

  46. citizen @ #135 Monday, October 1st, 2018 – 11:55 am

    Murdoch’s take on Morrison’s “clever” GST ploy to save the furniture in WA – of course everything Morrison does is a vote winner:

    PM to sandbag seats with GST
    SEPTEMBER 30, 2018
    Scott Morrison will introduce legislation within weeks to lock in $7.2 billion of additional GST payments to the states, boosting the Coalition’s chances of saving five key seats in Western Australia at the federal election.

    https://www.outline.com/bTAzrp

    It didn’t work for John Howard. It looked desperate. Plus people will rightly conclude that it will be clawed back after the election via cuts to Special Purpose Grants and other Cuts.

  47. poroti @ #65 Monday, October 1st, 2018 – 8:12 am

    adrian

    Mordor Media’s The Australian has it.

    Reef grant buck stops with me’
    ROSIE LEWIS
    Scott Morrison has taken responsibility for the Coalition’s $443.3 million grant to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/scott-morrison-the-buck-stops-with-me-on-443m-reef-grant/news-story/07233bbc0d027f1c2adad8920cf1c2d0

    Oh dear. This wont end well for Mr Morrison.

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