The latest fortnightly Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording an allergic reaction to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, with Labor’s 52-48 lead blowing out to 55-45. The report in The Guardian reveals the Coalition is down four on the primary vote to 35%, but that’s all we have for now. There is also no direct indication of whether the poll adjusted its usual Thursday to Sunday field work period to account for the leadership change on Friday, as Newspoll did by chopping out the Thursday, but the supplementary questions suggest as much. UPDATE: Full results here. They indeed held back starting the field work until Friday evening. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 39% (up two), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (up one).
Some of these findings add to a confused picture when considered in conjunction with other polls. Scott Morrison holds a 39-29 lead over Bill Shorten in prime minister, which reverses the Newspoll result but is in line with the findings of ReachTEL’s seat polls for the Fairfax papers. Fifty-two per cent supported an early election, which is a very different finding from the ReachTEL polls. Then again, 56% agreed Scott Morrison should be given time “to show he can do a better job of governing Australia”, so who knows what people want.
Conversely, a question on preferred Liberal leader produces similar results to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull falls from 28% to 15% as support shifts to Julie Bishop (up seven to 23%) and Scott Morrison (up eight to 10%), while Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton remain much as they were, on 9% and 4% respectively. The poll also includes the somewhat surprising finding (to me at least) that 35% approve of the leadership change, with 40% disapproving. A striking 57% agreed with the proposition that “the Liberal party is divided and no longer fit to govern Australia”.
Also featured are semi-regular questions on the parties’ attributes, which I might have something to say about when I see the full results, and questions on six policy propositions, which find support for lower immigration, opposition to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, mixed views on funding more coal-fired power plants and opposition to company tax cuts.
Also today, The Australian has rolled together results from the last three Newspolls under Malcolm Turnbull to produce a final set of quarterly state breakdowns for his prime ministership, interrupting their usual schedule of publishing these at the end of each quarter. The results are very like those of BludgerTrack in finding solid swings against the government in Queensland (4.1%) and Western Australia (4.7%), only small swings in New South Wales (0.9%) and Victoria (2.2%), and a swing to the Coalition in South Australia (3.3%), where the Liberals seem to be benefiting from the new state government’s honeymoon and the decline of Nick Xenophon. UPDATE: Full results here; HT to GhostWhoVotes.
Finally, it is anticipated that a by-election in Wentworth will be held on October 6, after Malcolm Turnbull today told colleagues he would resign from parliament on Friday. While Christine Foster, Sydney councillor and sister of Tony Abbott, has attracted the most media attention, Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the more likely Liberal candidate is Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel. Others mentioned as candidates are Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign, who will vie with Sharma for backing from factional moderates; Peter King, tha barrister who held the seat from 2001 until Turnbull defeated him for preselection in 2004; Katherine O’Regan, a Woollahra councillor.
“Bound to be and just think of how much travel/accommodation allowances and other expenses they will be able to claim.”
I was thinking nowhere particularly glamorous but then maybe he could swan off to various resorts in tropical Australia. Maybe overseas to the USA, Canada, maybe Mexico and Brazil to see how they deal with Indigenous issues. He could go to Russia, which has a few Indigenous groups, and maybe shirtfront Putin while he’s there.
Hi Cat – Surprisinly after 33 yrs on Mid North Coast we are enjoying Newcastle. It was a beaut day in Port Macq and next time you go North to see Mum remember we are on the way. Will email you our details. Welcome any time.
“By people who don’t actually want to see the Libs lose their majority. Di Natale would be included among them.”
of all the delusional and stupid things that have ever been posted on this page, this has got to take the cake.
The greens vote is all that stops my local member being LNP (instead she is an excellent ALP MP). This is repeated around the country. Most older greens are ex-ALP left, younger greens voters would be Bernie Sanders voters in the states, and something of in the order of 80% of greens voter preferences go to the ALP. Many in the ALP hate the greens in a way they don’t hate the libs – mainly because until recently, most of their social, economic and environmental policies and inclinations were more similar to the LNP’s than the greens. The ALPs move back to the left reflects the influence of the greens in formerly safe seat (as well as generational change within the ALP). As a greens member, I – and literally EVERY green member i know – never want a LNP government, and would love to see a progressive labor government with a greens BOP in the senate (and even the lower house if that wasn’t too chaotic – but it would be. I want a solid labor majority in the lower house). If my local greens candidate is a dud I vote labor and the labor candidate always gets my preference well ahead of the LNP.
.
lizzie @ #1051 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 11:38 am
I wonder if Barnaby will claim meetings with himself when he’s in his electorate! 🙂
So wrt the envoy positions for Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce some questions:
– what is their lines of responsibility? Which minister/s do they report to?
– how do they report? A report to Parliament, Senate Estimates, ???
– what if any precedent has been set for such a role?
It seems to me that this hasn’t really been thought out too well and could end up becoming quite cumbersome in terms of ‘bracket creep’ i.e. scope.
Barney
I’m just so angry with him over his stupid ‘saving farmers from the drought’ suggestions.
Puffy. Gorgeous pup. Definitely one for continuing the line . Good luck with that.
I’m really disappointed in Abbott’s appointment. I can’t accept he has any deep desire to do more than play Mr Missionary man – I’m a good Christian here to help. I saw first hand the results in Taree and generations on it is still hurting. I couldn’t dislike this Govt more if I tried.
lizzie @ #1054 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 12:45 pm
Calm down Lizzie, Jebus will provide!
guytaur
That is an Envoy. A Special Envoy…
.
Special Envoy does get a mention in Wikipedia under “Diplomatic rank…….Multilateral Diplomace” though
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomatic_rank#Multilateral_diplomacy
Morrison’s lapel pins are the ludicrous symbol of the New Order.
BH
We are doing okay. Thanks.
OH and son are very happy for the Hawks to get a top four spot. Perhaps if Buddy played, the outcome may have been different!
Victoria
😆 My team Sydney could be saying the same thing.
Shellbell – Ah, that big, soft, pile of cuddles is to die for . Thnks for sharing.
Lizzie – Mari is a beautiful person. Her laughter is pure medicine – when she’s not gadding around the globe, i.e. (OK – don’t hit me, Mari lol)
Guytaur
Que? I am saying that if Buddy played, the Swans may have won instead of losing.
Not sure what you thought I meant.
Victoria
Oh sorry. I thought you meant if Buddy was still playing for Hawthorn 🙂
Edit: On the better spot that is not the number four position
Which is code for?
Hugh Riminton
Hugh Riminton
@hughriminton
PM
#ScoMo
on
#PeterDutton
’s Constitutional eligibility: “I’ve been in close contact with the Attorney-General. We will deal with that within our own processes”
Guytaur
Hawks played Swans and won to secure fourth spot. Buddy didn’t play. If he did, Swans may have got up. We will never know…
Victoria
True indeed. Still pleased my team made it to the finals again. I expect Richmond to win the flag but as history has shown favourites get beaten. 🙂
Swans happy to lose knowing that if they get past GWS, they play away all the way to the title and they are better away than home by some distance.
The purpose of a lapel pin is to remind the people around you of what you represent, presumably because they don’t already know. Putting one on a federal minister to remind me that they represent me is simply insulting. And more so if I am another minister. It is infantile.
IndigenousX Pty Ltd
@IndigenousXLtd
·
5h
Indigenous people: We want a voice to parliament.
ScoMo: Ok, Tony Abbott will be your voice.
Indigenous ppl: … we’re speechless.
ScoMo: Perfect.
15
586
1.1K
While some on the right of politics might like the flag-on-the-lapel thingy, most of Oz reserve-observe their patriotism in a non-obtrusive way. We are no USA. The phoney stuff by Morrison is seen for what is it – the last (or is it first?)refuge of a scoundrel……
guytaur says:
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 at 12:33 pm
briefly
Hey no damage done to the Opera House by photoshop. Its all good.
It is an idiotic gesture.
Kroger being one of the better-known bullies, of course.
Guytaur
There is a bye this week. Means all teams get to recharge their batteries.
Based on this, the cup is up for grabs.
Go away for the day and I notice some talk about the footy. Can I say that as a one-eyed feral Tiger that I am so comfortable and relaxed about this season, and that I really am not going to stress to much if we don’t go back to back
I’m not a pin on lapel kinda guy as my mode of dress is usually a T-shirt and shorts.
I’m more of a fridge magnet kinda bloke. Do youse reckon Scummo can get me a batch of fridge magnets. I need at least three. Got to cover 2 fridges and an esky.
Lizzie
Kroger was interviewed on Sky earlier. He was very dismissive of it. Said he knew nothing and most likely rumour and inneuendo. Despite it being pointed out that Julia Banks put it in her statement.
Kroger isn’t the best person to get the truth from.
And he said that Morrison has been impressive so far.
You gotta laugh.
Late Riser @ #1073 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 12:00 pm
Maybe it’s his way of dealing with those who still have citizenship questions! 🙂
mickmack
When there is an up to date premiership in the bag, it does tend to make one relaxed!
Victoria
Its a fun finals season thats for sure. 🙂
Mickmack
I hope your team players share your relaxed and comfortable approach 😀
Sorry, Sustainable Future, but you are being very naive
I have no doubt you sincerely hope for Labor government but the rest of your comment, particularly where you have attempted to ascribe ALP motivations, are nonsense. The ALP has been enacting progressive legislation long before the Greens political party existed.
Clearly a majority of the Greens voters prefer a Labor government to a Liberal one because 80% of them direct their preferences to Labor. 20% leak to the Liberals, perhaps reflecting a portion of “Petro Georgio” refugees from the Liberal party but perhaps also reflecting the ambiguity created by Greens “Labor = Liberal” rhetoric and the primary strategic focus of the Greens of dislodging Labor MPs from the lower house. They then openly campaign on possibility of being in coalition with a Labor government – despite Labor rejecting it – reinforcing attacks on Labor in the marginal seats it needs for government where the Greens are toxic
This is why Labor supporters hate the Greens political party. By their actions they increase the chance of conservative governments in Australia…and then they have the audacity to claim that Labor’s hard earned progressive legislative achievements are some how due to them.
Barney in Go Dau, maybe a litmus test. They change colour or something…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/29/labor-targets-michael-sukkars-seat-with-indigenous-recognition-advocate?CMP=share_btn_tw
Late Riser @ #1086 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 12:10 pm
Nah, they don’t want to expose it, think of it more as wallpaper. 🙂
Mickmack
After that appalling display of football in last year’s Grand Final, I didn’t watch anything much of this season and will only watch the finals to do something with my Mum. Anyway, I spend most of the game time on the laptop.
Whatever sporting spectacle that game was supposed to be, it wasn’t.
I will go back to watching The Matildas play real football.
mickmack @ #1077 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 1:04 pm
Provided you win this weekend the Tigers guarantee they won’t have to travel. Given the Tigers form over decades against the Eagles in Perth (four wins from 19 attempts) I doubt they’d want to come here for the preliminary final.
I couldn’t work out how to copy a tweet but it seems Craig KellyMP (ugh) is saying that Julia Banks has done the wrong and intimating she should have hardened up. Noice!!
Victoria and Guytaur – I was relieved Buddy wasn’t playing. We need him fit.
Mickmak – No worries for you. Our late son was a huge Richmond fan from toddler stage and we raged against each other every footy season . Month before he died he said ‘ You’re gonna lose this year cos I’ll be on my cloud pushing Richmond to win for the next 2 years at least. Nothing will stop them’. So you’re cool. Apart from that they are awesome, darn it
Roger
You just described a typical political party. No different to what Labor does and why Greens supporters sometimes hate Labor supporters.
Being first is no great achievement as times change. First was the elites ruling until rebellion changed us to a constitutional monarchy path. Locally in Australia Eureka.
Both Labor and the Greens are progressive parties. The LNP is not. This is just a basic thing that needs to be recognised and common ground sought. Both sides have to compromise no blank cheque for either party. So yes as Greens compromise so does the Labor party.
Thats why the Gillard Minority Government worked. Compromise.
Sustainable future@ 2:41. On the contrary to an earlier comment, in my opinion your post is right on – and anything but naive. However in a highly partisan environment it will inevitably produce knee jerk partisan responses.
I hope these Envoys are wearing red shirts when they’re sent on a landing party mission
Afternoon all.
BH, good to see you posting again 🙂
lizzie,
An MP’s staffer told me recently that there has been a dramatic increase in people from SEA nations unfairly being declined tourist visas to visit Oz – including some who have been coming to visit family for decades without any violations.
I have seen this happen a few times recently in my own little social circle.
One lady, expecting a bub in a few months, recently saw her sister’s application for a tourist visa rejected because she was considered too much of a risk of overstaying. Sister was coming to help out with the bub, has visited Aus to help after her two earlier two births, is married in her home country and works as a GP there.
Absolute nonsense. Only one explanation.
BH (Block)
Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 3:13 pm
Comment #1089
Tears. 😢
shellbell
Your puppy is a Burmese Mountain Dog? We see a few of them around Balmain when we’re walking our two little fluffy terrorists.
BH
*Hugs*
The Gs like to think they have some kind of improving effect on Labor. Nothing could be further from the truth. When the Gs adopt a position, the the effect is to repel other parties from that position. Labor does its level best to completely ignore the Gs, who are fleas on the arse of the body politic.
Swannies should be playing our home games at Kardinia