Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Further post-spill polling from Essential finds clarity on voting intention but mixed messages on other measures, while Newspoll bids farewell to the Turnbull era with one last set of state breakdowns.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording an allergic reaction to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, with Labor’s 52-48 lead blowing out to 55-45. The report in The Guardian reveals the Coalition is down four on the primary vote to 35%, but that’s all we have for now. There is also no direct indication of whether the poll adjusted its usual Thursday to Sunday field work period to account for the leadership change on Friday, as Newspoll did by chopping out the Thursday, but the supplementary questions suggest as much. UPDATE: Full results here. They indeed held back starting the field work until Friday evening. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 39% (up two), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (up one).

Some of these findings add to a confused picture when considered in conjunction with other polls. Scott Morrison holds a 39-29 lead over Bill Shorten in prime minister, which reverses the Newspoll result but is in line with the findings of ReachTEL’s seat polls for the Fairfax papers. Fifty-two per cent supported an early election, which is a very different finding from the ReachTEL polls. Then again, 56% agreed Scott Morrison should be given time “to show he can do a better job of governing Australia”, so who knows what people want.

Conversely, a question on preferred Liberal leader produces similar results to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull falls from 28% to 15% as support shifts to Julie Bishop (up seven to 23%) and Scott Morrison (up eight to 10%), while Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton remain much as they were, on 9% and 4% respectively. The poll also includes the somewhat surprising finding (to me at least) that 35% approve of the leadership change, with 40% disapproving. A striking 57% agreed with the proposition that “the Liberal party is divided and no longer fit to govern Australia”.

Also featured are semi-regular questions on the parties’ attributes, which I might have something to say about when I see the full results, and questions on six policy propositions, which find support for lower immigration, opposition to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, mixed views on funding more coal-fired power plants and opposition to company tax cuts.

Also today, The Australian has rolled together results from the last three Newspolls under Malcolm Turnbull to produce a final set of quarterly state breakdowns for his prime ministership, interrupting their usual schedule of publishing these at the end of each quarter. The results are very like those of BludgerTrack in finding solid swings against the government in Queensland (4.1%) and Western Australia (4.7%), only small swings in New South Wales (0.9%) and Victoria (2.2%), and a swing to the Coalition in South Australia (3.3%), where the Liberals seem to be benefiting from the new state government’s honeymoon and the decline of Nick Xenophon. UPDATE: Full results here; HT to GhostWhoVotes.

Finally, it is anticipated that a by-election in Wentworth will be held on October 6, after Malcolm Turnbull today told colleagues he would resign from parliament on Friday. While Christine Foster, Sydney councillor and sister of Tony Abbott, has attracted the most media attention, Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the more likely Liberal candidate is Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel. Others mentioned as candidates are Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign, who will vie with Sharma for backing from factional moderates; Peter King, tha barrister who held the seat from 2001 until Turnbull defeated him for preselection in 2004; Katherine O’Regan, a Woollahra councillor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,467 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Bevan Shields‏Verified account @BevanShields · 5h5 hours ago

    Bravo boys. Julia Banks was the ONLY Liberal Party candidate to win a seat from Labor at the last election and you’ve driven her out. Geniuses #auspol

  2. Frank Bainimarama‏Verified account @FijiPM · Aug 27

    Congratulations @ScottMorrisonMP on being chosen as Australia’s next Prime Minister. I look forward to working with you across a broad front, including the global campaign for action on climate change, the greatest threat facing Australia and all of your neighbors in the Pacific

  3. sustainable future @ #1052 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 2:41 pm

    As a greens member, I – and literally EVERY green member i know – never want a LNP government, and would love to see a progressive labor government with a greens BOP in the senate

    Then do something about your party’s leader, as he seems to think that the way to get those things is by attacking Labor at every opportunity. I’d suggest that it isn’t, and he should know better. My enemy’s enemy is my friend, etc., etc..

  4. Barney in Go Dau @ #10116 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 3:07 pm

    Late Riser @ #1073 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 12:00 pm

    The purpose of a lapel pin is to remind the people around you of what you represent, presumably because they don’t already know. Putting one on a federal minister to remind me that they represent me is simply insulting. And more so if I am another minister. It is infantile.

    Maybe it’s his way of dealing with those who still have citizenship questions! 🙂

    Nah. It’s just Scummo’s nod to his American owner(s). I look forward to the day when we deport US citizen Rupert Murdoch for the egregious crime of fomenting a hostile coup against an Australian PM – since the last time he did it, against Whitlam, Murdoch was still an Australian citizen. I recon the banning order should pass both houses of the Australian Parliament within a couple of weeks of the ALP’s decimation (ie taking at least 8 LH seats from the GRASPers) of the LNP at the next election.

  5. a r @ #364 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 3:29 pm

    sustainable future @ #1052 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 2:41 pm

    As a greens member, I – and literally EVERY green member i know – never want a LNP government, and would love to see a progressive labor government with a greens BOP in the senate

    Then do something about your party’s leader, as he seems to think that the way to get those things is by attacking Labor at every opportunity. I’d suggest that it isn’t, and he should know better. My enemy’s enemy is my friend, etc., etc..

    So you expect the Greens to pretend that they endorse every Labor position ?

  6. Puffy, nothing appalling about last years Grand Final. After 37 odd years of misery it was one of the happiest moments of my life.
    Heck, it even compelled me to get my first, and so far, only Tatt.

  7. “The Gs like to think they have some kind of improving effect on Labor. Nothing could be further from the truth. When the Gs adopt a position, the the effect is to repel other parties from that position. Labor does its level best to completely ignore the Gs, who are fleas on the arse of the body politic.”

    Well said

    And the Greens preaching on compromise? Good lord

    The ALP, as a major party of government, necessary facilitates compromise across numerous policy tensions across its very broad base. It works when (and because) those within it place solidarity at its highest value. A value which is so critically important to be a successful party of the left. A value conspicuously absent in the Greens political party

  8. Rex Douglas @ #1108 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 3:33 pm

    So you expect the Greens to pretend that they endorse every Labor position ?

    No, I just excpect them to focus their criticism on the Coalition’s position. Especially at times when Labor is not actually in government and the Coalition is.

    There’s no need for the Greens to say anything for or against any of Labor’s policy positions at this time. If the goal is to ensure that the government of Australia becomes more progressive, disproportionately criticizing Labor at a time when doing so risks keeping the progressive parties out of power for yet another term is actively counterproductive.

  9. Roger

    Compromise means both sides give way. Not just the Greens.

    No blank cheques meant exactly that. If you think Gillard gave the Greens a blank cheque I have a bridge to sell you.

  10. a r: “There’s no need for the Greens to say anything for or against any of Labor’s policy positions at this time”

    sure there is. Its called brand differentiation.

    Otherwise, why not just vote labor – if you insist there shouldn’t be any difference between them?

  11. a r @ #1118 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 12:39 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1108 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 3:33 pm

    So you expect the Greens to pretend that they endorse every Labor position ?

    No, I just excpect them to focus their criticism on the Coalition’s position. Especially at times when Labor is not actually in government and the Coalition is.

    There’s no need for the Greens to say anything for or against any of Labor’s policy positions at this time. If the goal is to ensure that the government of Australia becomes more progressive, disproportionately criticizing Labor at a time when doing so risks keeping the progressive parties out of power for yet another term is actively counterproductive.

    Very well said!

    But as some of their supporters admit, the Greens want to be the 76th seat in the House in a Labor Government and that requires suppressing the Labor vote.

  12. Big A Adrian @ #1118 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 3:44 pm

    sure there is. Its called brand differentiation.

    Otherwise, why not just vote labor – if you insist there shouldn’t be any difference between them?

    That’s not even close to what I said.

    The Greens are welcome to come up with and sell their own policies. It’s possible to do that without directly attacking Labor or Labor policies. It’s possible and very easy to do that whilst strongly attacking the Coalition and its policies.

    You can differentiate without attacking.

  13. “Compromise means both sides give way. Not just the Greens.

    No blank cheques meant exactly that. If you think Gillard gave the Greens a blank cheque I have a bridge to sell you.”

    Sorry, this is gibberish. You don’t get it.

  14. The Gs could do a very great deal to improve their position in the spectrum if they ceased campaigning against Labor all the time and instead directed their efforts to campaigning against the LNP.

    The anti-Labor campaign by the Gs – and we see endless examples of it here and in the media – only divides the effort needed to disempower the LNP. The Gs are obviously not blind. They must be very well aware of this. The conclusion to draw is that the Gs actually don’t care about this. They have another agenda, and that is their own advancement. They have chosen to campaign against Labor because they see this the better path to their own expansion. So it’s a deliberate choice on their part. They can live with the consequences – consequences such as the undying contempt of Labor volunteers who work tirelessly to return Labor Governments.

  15. Barney

    A good question for Labor people

    Remember most of the attacks by Green on Labor is for SUPPORTING the government.

    Thats a fact agree with Greens position or not.

  16. So it appears the BeetRooter has started his drought ‘special envoy’ listening tour in Rocky. And doesn’t it look like a great use of taxpayer’s money?

    Barnaby Joyce and George Christensen are in Rockhampton today, hearing recounts from Central Queenslanders who’ve seen the positive and negative impacts of mining on small businesses and towns. @WINNews_ROK

  17. guytaur @ #1124 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 3:53 pm

    Ah yes the old Greens can’t be a regular party and attack all parties including Labor schtick.

    Well, they can certainly be and do whatever they want.

    It’s more that being and doing certain things in the current political environment objectively harm the chances of getting a more progressive government in place, which is something the Greens at least claim to want. If others take notice of this and mark them down for it, that’s fair enough IMO.

  18. Craig Kelly, “you’ve got to roll with the punches” re Julia Banks bullying. Carrying on the fine Alexander Downer tradition, “Things that batter.”
    It is an absolute disgrace how men are insensitive to respecting women in this country. No wonder two women are murdered each week through DV when our Representatives have this attitude.

  19. AR

    Whats the point of being in government if you don’t do something. We have heard that a lot lately.

    The Greens have different positions. That does not harm Labor. Labor harms Labor. Just as the Greens harm the Greens and the LNP harm the LNP.

    This is what happens in the long run. The alternative of we must appease the right to appeal to the centre is what is wrong. Whitlam proved you don’t need to do that. He just had a party that had been out of government so long experience was lacking.

  20. Barney

    As do Green people. I have noticed a lot just don’t recognise that a progressive can say a pro Labor opinion that attacks the LNP as its lost in the sea of comments. Here and other places.

    You just see the difference. Thats why pointing out the Greens have more often than not supported Labor in government is important. It reflects their members views. As the preferences of those members and their voters show.

    The Greens may be many things. A party bent on self destruction not so much

  21. “Well, they can certainly be and do whatever they want.

    It’s more that being and doing certain things in the current political environment objectively harm the chances of getting a more progressive government in place, which is something the Greens at least claim to want. If others take notice of this and mark them down for it, that’s fair enough IMO.”

    Bingo. It is the complete lack of accountability that is the problem. Taking credit for things they didn’t do and absolving themselves of responsibility for what they do do

  22. Barney

    Nope self deflection from you. You are arguing the Greens MP’s are going directly against the majority of members and voters wishes.

    Its a big claim. You need to back up with evidence. Attacking Labor for SUPPORTING the government does not count.

  23. guytaur @ #1141 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 1:12 pm

    Barney

    Nope self deflection from you. You are arguing the Greens MP’s are going directly against the majority of members and voters wishes.

    Its a big claim. You need to back up with evidence. Attacking Labor for SUPPORTING the government does not count.

    ??????

    Are you related to Katter?

    That is incoherent nonsense.

  24. The Gs have a great deal to answer for in my opinion. Their idiotic Labor=Liberal sledging serves just one group in the spectrum – the Pop-Right. They dumb down the distinctions that exist and implicitly endorse Up-Yours voting by the disaffected. The Gs are a disaffection motor.

    They really are the ensigns of the LNP. Yet political butter wouldn’t melt in their sanctimonious mouths.

    But not to worry. The current climate is very charged. Voters are in the process of concluding the Government must be replaced. There is just one way to do this, and that is to choose Labor. Voters will do this in irresistible numbers. They will do it in electorates right across the country. Not a few former-G voters will join the movement to Labor. And every time the Gs campaign against Labor (they inevitably will), they will be seen as helping to shore up a disgraced Liberal Party. The Gs will surely suffer for that.

  25. C@tmomma:

    Somehow I feel guilty but we never lose socks and thus end up with odd socks in our house. My trick is to make sure they stay in their pairs all along the supply chain. From the sock drawer, where they are all neatly folded in pairs, to being put, as a pair, into the dirty clothes basket, then into the washing machine and back out again, where I sort them out again into their matching pairs, thence to the clothes line, where they are hung up in pairs and then taken down when dry, folded up again and returned to their owner’s sock drawer.

    Easy peasy!

    I have tried to enforce such a regime, but here the chink in the armour is at the “..being put, as a pair, into the dirty clothes basket.” step. It is akin to the labours of Sisyphus trying to get the kindergartener in particular to reliably put things into the dirty clothes basket, let alone paired.

  26. Barney

    😆

    You got presented by voters preferences and given the 80% you can assume most members of the Green give preferences to Labor.

    To argue that the Greens are in fact attacking just Labor is to argue they are in fact bent on self destruction. This is not the reality. Common sense about self interest has to play. Its not in the interest of the Greens to be seen to be in bed with the government.

    Especially on the two issues most complained about here of Greens actions of climate change and asylum seekers.

    To say anything else is just partisan BS. The Greens will have different tactics and different strategies than the ALP. It does not make them conservatives or allies of the LNP

  27. Jeez, we have enough trouble keeping socks in the house sorted into two piles – clean and dirty.

    Paired? HA! We use a just-in-time inventory approach.

  28. I think Dobby has socks covered in Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.

    [To Harry] “Socks are Dobby’s favorite, favorite clothes, sir!” he said, ripping off his odd ones and pulling on Uncle Vernon’s. “I has seven now, sir. . . . But sir …” he said, his eyes widening, having pulled both socks up to their highest extent, so that they reached to the bottom of his shorts, “they has made a mistake in the shop, Harry Potter, they is giving you two the same!”

    🙂

  29. Whether it is one or two women killed every week by their partners, Votw1Julia’s point still holds. When our political representatives have such appalling attitudes to bullying and specifically the bullying and intimidation of their female colleagues what message does that send to those who have to power in relationships? It is no wonder White Ribbon has to work so hard in Australia.

  30. “The ALP has been enacting progressive legislation long before the Greens political party existed.”

    such as mandatory detention of refugees in failed nation states? such as privatisations? such as HECS? replacing Nation Wage Case hearings/awards with enterprise bargaining? such as overt or covert support for opening up new coal fields? voting against SSM right up to 2013 (and have it as policy beyond that)? voting against a banking royal commission until 2017? voting against territories rights/euthanasia in 2018? voting with the coalition to overturn a high court decision in order to retrospectively justify the unlawful detention of 1,600 refugees (2 weeks ago)? for being silent about Manus and Naru? etc etc

    Yes, labor has a proud history of progressive legislation, but during the Hawke-Keating-Beasley period the labor=liberal jibe was pretty accurate. It has only been the Howard-Abbott putsch dragging the libs to the far right that has allowed labor to differentiate itself as progressive again. The federal labor front bench is impressively progressive now – but their best and most progressive policies are lifted from the greens. I hate that labor people feel they need to hate the greens for that.

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