The latest fortnightly Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording an allergic reaction to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, with Labor’s 52-48 lead blowing out to 55-45. The report in The Guardian reveals the Coalition is down four on the primary vote to 35%, but that’s all we have for now. There is also no direct indication of whether the poll adjusted its usual Thursday to Sunday field work period to account for the leadership change on Friday, as Newspoll did by chopping out the Thursday, but the supplementary questions suggest as much. UPDATE: Full results here. They indeed held back starting the field work until Friday evening. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 39% (up two), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (up one).
Some of these findings add to a confused picture when considered in conjunction with other polls. Scott Morrison holds a 39-29 lead over Bill Shorten in prime minister, which reverses the Newspoll result but is in line with the findings of ReachTEL’s seat polls for the Fairfax papers. Fifty-two per cent supported an early election, which is a very different finding from the ReachTEL polls. Then again, 56% agreed Scott Morrison should be given time “to show he can do a better job of governing Australia”, so who knows what people want.
Conversely, a question on preferred Liberal leader produces similar results to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull falls from 28% to 15% as support shifts to Julie Bishop (up seven to 23%) and Scott Morrison (up eight to 10%), while Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton remain much as they were, on 9% and 4% respectively. The poll also includes the somewhat surprising finding (to me at least) that 35% approve of the leadership change, with 40% disapproving. A striking 57% agreed with the proposition that “the Liberal party is divided and no longer fit to govern Australia”.
Also featured are semi-regular questions on the parties’ attributes, which I might have something to say about when I see the full results, and questions on six policy propositions, which find support for lower immigration, opposition to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, mixed views on funding more coal-fired power plants and opposition to company tax cuts.
Also today, The Australian has rolled together results from the last three Newspolls under Malcolm Turnbull to produce a final set of quarterly state breakdowns for his prime ministership, interrupting their usual schedule of publishing these at the end of each quarter. The results are very like those of BludgerTrack in finding solid swings against the government in Queensland (4.1%) and Western Australia (4.7%), only small swings in New South Wales (0.9%) and Victoria (2.2%), and a swing to the Coalition in South Australia (3.3%), where the Liberals seem to be benefiting from the new state government’s honeymoon and the decline of Nick Xenophon. UPDATE: Full results here; HT to GhostWhoVotes.
Finally, it is anticipated that a by-election in Wentworth will be held on October 6, after Malcolm Turnbull today told colleagues he would resign from parliament on Friday. While Christine Foster, Sydney councillor and sister of Tony Abbott, has attracted the most media attention, Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the more likely Liberal candidate is Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel. Others mentioned as candidates are Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign, who will vie with Sharma for backing from factional moderates; Peter King, tha barrister who held the seat from 2001 until Turnbull defeated him for preselection in 2004; Katherine O’Regan, a Woollahra councillor.
Don
“No wonder two women are murdered each week through DV when our Representatives have this attitude.”
Where does that figure come from?
From my faulty memory. I stand corrected, sorry. But I still stand by my comment that is an absolute disgrace how men are insensitive to respecting women in this country.
Kelly looks like he teleported out of the 1950’s.
Comes with the attitude as well.
Perfect for this gov.
Actually, the incoming Home Affairs minister should be able to ban Rupert as an undesirable alien (he is not an Australian) without any need to involve parliament at all.
Duffers made sure he had that power, and has used it frequently.
One bloke was deported to NZ just because he was a member of a bikers club. No crime committed.
Once booted you then have to appeal from off-shore.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 at 4:22 pm
…. The Greens will have different tactics and different strategies than the ALP. It does not make them conservatives or allies of the LNP
From Labor’s point of view, be assured, the Gs are on the interchange bench for the LNP. They play as an extra – the 19th on the field – in the forward pocket, sneaking goals where they can, hoping to force a draw or to run play into extra time. They work behind the picket lines.
Vote1Julia,
It reads as if it’s only one woman a week it is okay then?
Your original point holds, and you have nothing to be sorry about.
With advice like this Scotty will go far:
Richard Farmer
@richardlfarmer
·
52m
Politics the Victorian Liberal president Michael Kroger way. Talking about women MPs during the leadership spill: “… even if they were [bullied] that’s what happens in politics.” Charming fellow.
#auspol
I queried earlier whether someone could explain how the envoy positions were not offices of profit under the crown.
Luke Beck has written a piece on the conversation about the issue:
https://theconversation.com/could-section-44-exclude-tony-abbott-and-barnaby-joyce-from-parliament-102346
It’s an interesting academic argument but the final paragraph shows the practical limits.
I find the whole thing quite distasteful, but the parties dole out all sorts of allowances to their backbenchers that are equally distasteful and do nothing to improve the public image of politicians.
During the Hawke – Keating period:
-Medicare
-The most progressive university funding system in the world, tripling the number of Uni entrants
-The most brilliant superannuation system in the world
-Ground breaking anti-discrimination legislation and disability support
-Massive advancement of aboriginal rights, respect and reconciliation
-Massive step change in environmental protection
-Removal of last ties to the british parliament and commencement of the republican referendum process
This all at a time when the neoliberal paradigm was near omnipotent globally.
All the Greens offer in the face of this is sanctimonious, narcissistic grand-standing.
The Greens are at the flaming hypocrisy again. They are Labor’s besties. Except that they spend most of their time Killing Bill!
It is not just the hypocritical cant.
It is the arrogant tone of we are doing YOU a favour.
Eff off.
Nader, Sanders, the Greens – same same: inside wreckers on behalf of the Raving Right.
Roger
Then you can stop talking about them as according to you they are irrelevant to progressive policies.
Agree with the Greens or not their political position their voters preferences are reality.
No changing that reality no matter how much ALP campaigners like briefly want to.
The Greens are not the Labor Party. They are progressive.
Well said Roger…bravo.
“inadvertently”
Boerwar says Wednesday, August 29, 2018 at 4:49 pm
Some might add Corbyn to that list. 🙂
Lovely to hear from you again, BH.
Missed you muchly, and your lad sounds like a very talented boy. I’m glad you have so many fabulous memories.
Sorry if this has already been posted.
https://theconversation.com/could-section-44-exclude-tony-abbott-and-barnaby-joyce-from-parliament-102346
The Liberal master plan with deposing Turnbull seems to have been to descimate their vote so they can say it’s improvind under Morrison ..
@lizzie…….it just goes to show that the current mob of Libs are not the sharpest tools in the shed, just the biggest.
Puffytmd
Thanks Puffy for seeing my point. No woman being murdered or assaulted through DV should be
the minimum acceptable standard.
Roger
says:
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 at 4:48 pm
During the Hawke – Keating period:
-Medicare
-The most progressive university funding system in the world, tripling the number of Uni entrants
-The most brilliant superannuation system in the world
-Ground breaking anti-discrimination legislation and disability support
-Massive advancement of aboriginal rights, respect and reconciliation
-Massive step change in environmental protection
-Removal of last ties to the british parliament and commencement of the republican referendum process
This all at a time when the neoliberal paradigm was near omnipotent globally.
_________________________________________
I pretty much supported all of the Hawke/Keating agenda but lets not forget these as well:
– removal of many tariffs
– floating of the dollar
– opening the banks to some foreign competition
– HECS
– enterprise bargaining
Hardly all against neo-liberal agenda.
Barney IDG
I forgot to reply to your earlier response re MTurnbull and the leadership question.
Turnbull’s resignation is official on Friday.
So my point re asking the leadership question including Turnbull is moot
“From Labor’s point of view, be assured, the Gs are on the interchange bench for the LNP. They play as an extra – the 19th on the field – in the forward pocket, sneaking goals where they can, hoping to force a draw or to run play into extra time. They work behind the picket lines.”
this is delusional. seriously so.
labor votes with the LNP more often than the green do, because they vote down many motions the greens raise in the senate and lower house re: refugees, anti-corruption measures, and political donation reforms.
labor preference family first and the libs ahead of the greens in many seats. I don’t for a second think that is because they support FF or the LNP.
I – and most greens – support labor over the LNP, but we wish they’d step up on refugees, coal/climate and political reforms that strengthen democracy. Hopefully once the libs are reduced to a rump of acrimonious rabble they’ll undo the Howard-Abbott legacy, but I’m not betting big money on that.
Lizzie
Sounds like the old parliamentary secretaries may have been questionable under S 44!.
Though what happens to those that accept say Speaker of the House/Senate? Or chairs of parliamentary committees?
It is interesting that Rupe has been back in the country for a couple of weeks and neither the PM nor the Leader of the Opposition has, so far as we are aware, gone to Yass to bend a knee. That’s a bit unusual. It certainly might explain why Rupe was so pissed at Turnbull. It’s also interesting that Labor does not seem to give a damn anymore. Maybe that is why Rupe has focused so heavily on Liberal internal politics.
antonbruckner11
Perhaps Spud or Scrott popped over for a quiet visit at some stage. I’m sure they would want it to have been very discrete.
The media keep talking about Julie Bishop as being ‘enormously popular’. Do we have any figures to back this claim up?
On economic policy, Hawke-Keating worked to take us to the same deregulated place Thatcher took the UK – just by a different and more gentle route. sorry – that is unfair – they tried to transition the economy more gently and protect exposed workers and the unemployed by investing in education and training, but ultimately their vision for how the economy should function was not vastly different to Howard’s neo-classical view. They tilled the ground for Howard and Beasley was hopeless at articulating an alternative to Howard.
Kevin Rudd visited Rupert in New York before the 2007 election and bent the knee, probably offered to do a lot more, but Rupert’s into women I’m pretty certain.
I am off to watch the Drum. Julia Baird has been fierce on issues for woman so I expect a strong discussion about the bullying allegations and the effect it is having on the LNP.
Victoria @ #1173 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 2:08 pm
Turnbull’s resignation may be official on Friday.
Until he tenders it he is a Member of Parliament, so including him in such questions is reasonable especially as it gives us a direct link to the previous PM and provides some comparison.
Of course your words were “has resigned” which is plainly false. 🙂
Nath, you completely missed the point
For all of those who were going on about Whish-Wilson and Reefgate, perhaps you need to also direct your negative aspersions to Keneally as she also seems to be “grandstanding” and politically naive by telegraphing intentions.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/29/turnbull-could-be-forced-to-front-senate-inquiry-to-explain-444m-reef-grant
Katharine Murphy on Julia Banks:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/29/australian-politics-needs-women-like-julia-banks-but-it-is-hostile-territory
Pegasus @ #1184 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 2:26 pm
Dumb, but what came first the press release or the answering the Guardian questions. 🙂
caf,
Use it as a teachable moment for your kindergartener! When you notice a sock has gone missing make a game of ‘find the sock’ out of it. 🙂
caf,
Use it as a teachable moment for your kindergartener! When you notice a sock has gone missing make a game of ‘find the sock’ out of it. 🙂
Patricia Karvelas on Julia Banks:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-29/julia-banks-home-truths-liberal-party/10178708
Even one Woman a week murdered by her partner is far too much
I think Di Natale said two women killed a week by their partners when he was scorching the Libs over shutting down the House, and all the other shit. Could be wrong.
Even one Woman a week murdered by her partner is far too much
_____________________
It usually occurs when a woman wants to end a relationship. These absolute mugs can’t handle rejection and think they own the woman. pathetic.
Newly-named Labor candidate for Deakin Shireen Morris has chosen her words carefully in addressing Julia Banks’ departure from Parliament (in a statement on her Facebook page).
“It’s disappointing, and kinda scary, that this sort of bullying has forced another woman out of politics… Parliament should not be a boys’ club. What a shame.”
It seems clearer and clearer that the main standover man in this bullying exercise that left multiple female MPs in tears was none other than Michael Sukkar, the sitting Deakin member. Ms Morris won’t want to seem opportunistic as Sukkar’s name gets dragged deeper and deeper into the mud, but it must be a boon to her chances.
I thought the original NO WAR job on the opera house was genius. I wanted the world to know that Howard and the Crims were so despised here that life and limb were put at risk. No harm was done, and we hit the world news as saying we were not all party to an illegal and immoral invasion.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/08/28/essential-research-55-45-labor-3/comment-page-24/#comment-2885635
The removal of the last ties to the British Parliament/separation of the crowns is almost certainly a major cause of the foreign citizenship issues in the current parliament because it is almost certainly what caused British Citizens to be citizens of a foreign power (The original High court ruling on the matter said that it was conclusive that the UK was a foreign power afterwards but did not look carefully into whether it had been the case before then). The occurrence of the same splits between the UK and Canada and New Zealand have also contributed to the issue.
ItzaDream @ #1193 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 5:10 pm
It was brilliant. And I was not very old at the time. So you are you worried there is still a warrant out for you? 🙂
Is Barnaby still safe in his seat, after not only his own unfortunate misdeeds, but now the Liberal’s as well?
Pegasus says:
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 at 5:30 pm
K Murphy – “Politics is fast becoming the art of people shouting in small rooms”.
Sadly very much the situation occurring here on PB. There are a number of people here (mostly appear to be Right leaning ALP supporters) who air quite ridiculous (and divisive) opinions on other progressives.
Examples include claiming Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn are aiding the “right”. In my opinion nothing is further from the truth. However these PBer’s utterances appear to be aimed to deliberately divide and turn genuine progressives against each other.
Puffytmd @ #1195 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 5:13 pm
oops. I got mixed up with the Vietnam War. I marched against Howards illegal and opportunistic war. The grizzled goat.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 at 4:49 pm
Roger
Then you can stop talking about them as according to you they are irrelevant to progressive policies.
Agree with the Greens or not their political position their voters preferences are reality.
No changing that reality no matter how much ALP campaigners like briefly want to.
The Greens are not the Labor Party. They are progressive.
My interest is not in changing the behaviour of G-leaning voters. I cannot do that and am not about to try. I pursue a critique of G-party conduct. I hope the G-party will change it’s business plan; that it will seriously campaign against the LNP rather than Labor. I don’t hold out great hopes for this. But I’m not going to stop challenging the G campaign, a campaign that in fact aids the decrepit LNP government.
Barney IDG
Turnbull tendered his resignation which becomes official Friday. You wanna be pedantic. You are welcome
Doesn’t change the point that including him in leadership question is now moot