The latest fortnightly Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording an allergic reaction to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, with Labor’s 52-48 lead blowing out to 55-45. The report in The Guardian reveals the Coalition is down four on the primary vote to 35%, but that’s all we have for now. There is also no direct indication of whether the poll adjusted its usual Thursday to Sunday field work period to account for the leadership change on Friday, as Newspoll did by chopping out the Thursday, but the supplementary questions suggest as much. UPDATE: Full results here. They indeed held back starting the field work until Friday evening. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 39% (up two), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (up one).
Some of these findings add to a confused picture when considered in conjunction with other polls. Scott Morrison holds a 39-29 lead over Bill Shorten in prime minister, which reverses the Newspoll result but is in line with the findings of ReachTEL’s seat polls for the Fairfax papers. Fifty-two per cent supported an early election, which is a very different finding from the ReachTEL polls. Then again, 56% agreed Scott Morrison should be given time “to show he can do a better job of governing Australia”, so who knows what people want.
Conversely, a question on preferred Liberal leader produces similar results to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull falls from 28% to 15% as support shifts to Julie Bishop (up seven to 23%) and Scott Morrison (up eight to 10%), while Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton remain much as they were, on 9% and 4% respectively. The poll also includes the somewhat surprising finding (to me at least) that 35% approve of the leadership change, with 40% disapproving. A striking 57% agreed with the proposition that “the Liberal party is divided and no longer fit to govern Australia”.
Also featured are semi-regular questions on the parties’ attributes, which I might have something to say about when I see the full results, and questions on six policy propositions, which find support for lower immigration, opposition to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, mixed views on funding more coal-fired power plants and opposition to company tax cuts.
Also today, The Australian has rolled together results from the last three Newspolls under Malcolm Turnbull to produce a final set of quarterly state breakdowns for his prime ministership, interrupting their usual schedule of publishing these at the end of each quarter. The results are very like those of BludgerTrack in finding solid swings against the government in Queensland (4.1%) and Western Australia (4.7%), only small swings in New South Wales (0.9%) and Victoria (2.2%), and a swing to the Coalition in South Australia (3.3%), where the Liberals seem to be benefiting from the new state government’s honeymoon and the decline of Nick Xenophon. UPDATE: Full results here; HT to GhostWhoVotes.
Finally, it is anticipated that a by-election in Wentworth will be held on October 6, after Malcolm Turnbull today told colleagues he would resign from parliament on Friday. While Christine Foster, Sydney councillor and sister of Tony Abbott, has attracted the most media attention, Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the more likely Liberal candidate is Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel. Others mentioned as candidates are Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign, who will vie with Sharma for backing from factional moderates; Peter King, tha barrister who held the seat from 2001 until Turnbull defeated him for preselection in 2004; Katherine O’Regan, a Woollahra councillor.
Julia Banks said that some of the bullying came from Labor people.
Surely they all kept well away from the Libs and let them implode all by themselves; any guesses as to whom she was referring?
booleanbach @ #1197 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 2:44 pm
He could be in trouble if the drought forces the farmers to start to get rid of their sheep. 🙂
Julia Banks:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/joshtaylor/this-female-politician-says-she-was-bullied-and-intimidated?origin=shp&utm_term=.ymRgQ9WmB#.qm7Lk9KJV
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/29/liberal-mp-julia-banks-to-quit-parliament-next-election-citing-bullying-and-intimidation
I believe some adviser suggested she add the reference to bullying coming from Labor as well, as a way to kind of soften the statement and not give too much of a free kick to Labor. Having said that, it’s clear from the factual circumstances where the substantial bullying has come from. I am looking forward to seeing Michael Sukkar asked hard questions about his conduct.
The Greens vote with Labor most of the time, except when it really matters.
booleanbach @ #844 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 5:48 pm
My reading on that was it was not part of the leadership fiasco, but of a general nature.
Victoria @ #1201 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 2:48 pm
I disagree, if you look at the increase in Morrison and the decrease in Turnbull it gives you an idea of how many people just prefer whoever is PM. 🙂
Puffytmd @ #1195 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 5:43 pm
Oh I wish. I’m getting old and creaky. In fact, did my second ever yoga class today. My intent is to be happy and resolved about where I am. This fkn Govt isn’t helping, but change is close. Very close I smell it in the air, like rain, and it’s good.
Chris Uhlmann tweets…
All three Liberal MPs named to @NineNewsAUS as having been involved in bullying and intimidating @juliabanksMP categorically deny the allegations. #auspol
More Julia Banks imbroglio…
Michael Kroger mentioned in dispatches..
Sukkar says he hadn’t spoken to Banks since July 11
Things might have been different if the Victorian Court of Appeal had not pulled its punches over the contempt shown to it by Tudge, Hunt and Sukkar
sprocket
So that’s the end of that?
sprocket_ @ #1210 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 2:55 pm
Bully denies bullying.
Those making such accusations must stop their bullying immediately!!!! 🙂
Puffytmd @ #1198 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 5:46 pm
Taking the streets is something that’s been taken from us by the fascists. I walked against Iraq, walked across the bridge on a cold Sydney morning under the wafting SORRY sign in the sky, it was very emotional, under the flag I would happily embrace, and with my then new now spouse person, I walked in Mardi Gras for my first time, and was asked by some international microphone (BBC I think) what it meant and heard myself say, it means I am me.
The Drum finished this evening with a very personal & harrowing representation of Aboriginals in custody.
Repeat on News 24 at 6.13
Rob Harris tweets….
Michael Kroger says he’s spoken to one female MP and from that conversation he’s confident in saying no-one was bullied and even if they were that’s what happens in politics.
Confidence is what they all say when they’re not.
Shellbell @ #1212 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 2:57 pm
Yes, they were very obliging towards them, giving them multiple chances to back down.
Does anyone know who Labor’s candidate for Chisholm is?
Re Julia Banks
Liberal MP Craig Kelly has said that her resignation is the wrong thing to do and that she should “roll with the punches in this game”.
—-
The problem is that being an MP isn’t a game, Craig Kelly.
You are there to legislate on behalf of the people of Australia, to their benefit, not yours.
You are not there to use standover tactics against your fellow parliamentarians to bend to the will of a few MPs. You are there to serve the people.
We are your employer.
This isn’t footy, where men’s rules are the only rules. About time you learned that lesson, pal.
C@T – the Labor candidate for Chisholm is Jennifer Yang
A shame Banks is leaving, she sounded quite compassionate.
Abbott the ‘patriot‘
who “can appear at times to live { } in the eternal sunshine of the spotless mind” ….
https://dailyreview.com.au/tony-abbott/77500/
(worth it for the illustration)
nath @ #1191 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 5:38 pm
Yes.
If Morrison thinks he’s solved the Tony problem, most people think he’s setting up more problems for himself and the First Nations.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/29/abbott-as-indigenous-affairs-envoy-be-disturbed-be-very-disturbed
Thanks JimmyD! I seem to remember that bemused thought very highly of her. Not that I am lamenting bemused being around, don’t get me wrong! 😀
Vogon Poet @ #1222 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 3:16 pm
She is!
Most of the others argue to take it away completely, at least for some time. 🙂
Vogon Poet
Oh, so another one infected with the Bronwyn virus.
Roger @ #509 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 4:48 pm
Roger
You are letting emotion cloud facts
– Medicare replaced medibank – a Whitlam era reform – good on them for fixing the Fraser era butchery but credit to Whitlam mostly
– HECs is no where near as good as the Whitlam era free places. Going to uni and copping a HECs debt is ONLY useful if you get a good job and this has to be a lot better than the one you would otherwise have got. Basically our universities are now advanced child minding centres, delaying entry into the workforce to make the figures look better. The current wage stagnation applies to uni graduates too.
– Yes the super system IS good BUT it is not really a left right issue – it was really a RIGHT Wing neoliberal solution although it is a good one. Also remember its PURPOSE which was to gradually allow for the removal of the old age pension.
– Yes there were some real positives in terms of indigenous rights and anti discrimination
– Environment – just what were these massive gains. I think in fact they were bloody useless environmentally. Some of the Libs were actually better – that South Australian – was he Robert Hill or some such. Now I worked in this area and I think there was very, bloody little at a Commonwealth level. The REAL gains were because Victoria and NSW were leapfrogging each other – including Liberal governments – and SA always pretty good. Environmentally the Hawke Keating era was actually characterised by non involvement of of the Commonwealth and pressure from the states – consider the establishment of the NEPC and its potential power.
– British stuff – ho hum
It was the era of sale of the Commonwealth bank and Qantas. Setting up immigrant concentration camps in the desert. There was much that was good but a helluva lot of bad too.
I am of the opinion that Peter Dutton despite being a very divisive character would have been the best option electorally for the Liberals. If even the Coalition lost, I predict the result would have been close.
Because the Liberals would become a Conservative Nationalist party rallying against ‘Globalism’, advocating Social Conservatism and Economic Nationalism (Protectionism) would rally a lot of the Coalition base, attract those voters from One Nation and other right-wing populist parties. Also a fair slice of the ALP base would switch over as well. However the Liberals who subscribe to ‘Globalist’ views would leave the party, that would meant the lost of inner city ‘leafy’ seats such as for example; Wentworth, North Sydney, Ryan, Higgins, Kooyong and Curtin.
I personally disagree with this kind of political agenda, however I can see it as electorally popular enough to get governments elected. Also I believe the Liberals would need to change their name to the Conservative Party of Australia.
Barney in Go Dau @ #869 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 6:21 pm
Well she did vote for legislation that tried to limit payments :
https://theyvoteforyou.org.au/people/representatives/chisholm/julia_banks/policies/34
Oh Dear. It seems there are going to be lots of Russian soldiers doing push-ups and jumping jacks on China’s borders soon.
Russia to Stage Biggest Military Exercises Since Cold War
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-28/russia-to-stage-biggest-military-drills-since-height-of-cold-war
Bemused was what he was, and could be argumentative and irascible, as well a sexist and opinionated at times, but he was well informed and knowledgeable about ALP and Australian politics generally, and his absence from here overall leaves us the poorer, even though some of us don’t walk on eggshells as much any more.
A pity we couldn’t just have the good parts of the curate’s egg.
Zoomster
I suspect that Julie Bishop is actually quite popular with people who don’t know her. Fellow parliamentarians on the other hand ……..
Mehar baba@9:17am
I like wage increases ( who doesn’t). However like Wayne Swan, I prefer employment for everyone who is able, capable and/or willing to work. An idle brain is a devil’s playground. Also, you cannot aspire for wage increase without a job.
I miss my old comrade even though he could be a bit grumpy at times.
I miss CTar1. He was one of the early morning posters.
Millennial @ #582 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 6:38 pm
China and Mongolia are joining the exercises.
@Leon
Agreed, plus the Coalition’s hardcore right wing supporter base would despise her as a ‘globalist shill’, like they did about Malcolm Turnbull. I predict either these people take over the Liberal Party or leave it and found their own party.
Speaking of the Russians, while I was down at the shops this afternoon I saw a current model Lexus coupe parked semi legally, as in where other cars drive past on their way to a legitimate spot. Fair enough I thought, they can obviously afford to pay the fine should a parking inspector happen by, but it was only when I got up close and saw the gold -embossed personalised number plate that I laughed out loud at their chutzpah.
The number plate was : RUSSIA 😀
I am always a bit cautious when it comes to the use of the word “bully/bulling/been bullied” as these words become generic for virtually any bad experience (as experienced by the bullied one) rather than the totally inappropriate use of power by one person/persons over another/others. As any primary kid will answer, if they have “been bullied at school”, they will usually say “yes”. On further questioning quite often the “bullying” has encompassed just being told to do something…..such as pick up a bit of paper or some such.
I don’t know any of the details of Julia Banks and her experiences and I would hope she has been treated with respect. However, as some have pointed out, politics is a “brutal” business and just where tough treatment ends and bullying begins is almost impossible to isolate I would have thought.
One would hope that human interaction would not include such behaviour but clearly this is not so in the real world.
Not to mention the Russians own our local boat mooring facility for luxury yachts etc 🙂
Yep CTar was cool.
Tricot,
If you read my post the other day about Abbott’s Liberal Party droogs, then I would be believing Julia Banks if I were you. There are some very nasty and aggressive types associated with the Liberals.
And, yes, I’m sure there are some in Labor somewhere but they could probably learn a thing or two from the Right.
Ven @ #585 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 6:40 pm
Ven
Circular argument. without reasonable wages ordinary people have to cut back on services – hair cuts, eating out, magazines, car repairs, gardeners etc. This then reduces the number of jobs and it spirals down.
Basically the way to full employment is to increase wages in the sector most likely to transfer it on WITHIN Australia. Increasing wages or profits from those most likely to holiday in Europe or purchase property in Costa Rica will not generate jobs in Australia. Helping the lower end workers will – they can afford to repair the car, take mum out for her birthday, have a camping holiday with the kids in the summer, have a haircut etc. Essentially EVERY $ extra for this group will go straight back into the community. If 1000 shop assistants get $20 extra per week, then that is 10 extra hair cuts each year (Women cost more than men) so 10,000 extra services- let us say that is an extra 2000 days of work ie about 6 full time jobs.
Has there been any actual news of Ctari
Also Trog Sorrensen
What of RUAwake.
Very surprised to hear Banks speak out about bullying and intimidation in the Lib party, normally they wait until they’ve left. But if this tweet is any indication of the culture then you can see why she decided to up stumps and depart.
:large
What wonderful vetting we have.
It’s not clear where they are from or what their claim is, but they’re expected to be deported.
There is something very wrong in this chain. 🙁
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-29/fears-suspected-asylum-seekers-part-of-flood-from-vietnam/10179322
I would just like to say
that Craig Kelly MP has appeared on SKYNEWS today several times over about a 6 hour period. Does he head home between appearances or does he hang around the studio eating cold pizza? I would like to know how many hours a week he spends at SKYNEWS plus travelling to and from.
DaretoTread @ #1238 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 6:45 pm
I presume China and Mongolia will also join in on the jumping jacks and the push-ups.