The latest fortnightly Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording an allergic reaction to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, with Labor’s 52-48 lead blowing out to 55-45. The report in The Guardian reveals the Coalition is down four on the primary vote to 35%, but that’s all we have for now. There is also no direct indication of whether the poll adjusted its usual Thursday to Sunday field work period to account for the leadership change on Friday, as Newspoll did by chopping out the Thursday, but the supplementary questions suggest as much. UPDATE: Full results here. They indeed held back starting the field work until Friday evening. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 39% (up two), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (up one).
Some of these findings add to a confused picture when considered in conjunction with other polls. Scott Morrison holds a 39-29 lead over Bill Shorten in prime minister, which reverses the Newspoll result but is in line with the findings of ReachTEL’s seat polls for the Fairfax papers. Fifty-two per cent supported an early election, which is a very different finding from the ReachTEL polls. Then again, 56% agreed Scott Morrison should be given time “to show he can do a better job of governing Australia”, so who knows what people want.
Conversely, a question on preferred Liberal leader produces similar results to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull falls from 28% to 15% as support shifts to Julie Bishop (up seven to 23%) and Scott Morrison (up eight to 10%), while Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton remain much as they were, on 9% and 4% respectively. The poll also includes the somewhat surprising finding (to me at least) that 35% approve of the leadership change, with 40% disapproving. A striking 57% agreed with the proposition that “the Liberal party is divided and no longer fit to govern Australia”.
Also featured are semi-regular questions on the parties’ attributes, which I might have something to say about when I see the full results, and questions on six policy propositions, which find support for lower immigration, opposition to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, mixed views on funding more coal-fired power plants and opposition to company tax cuts.
Also today, The Australian has rolled together results from the last three Newspolls under Malcolm Turnbull to produce a final set of quarterly state breakdowns for his prime ministership, interrupting their usual schedule of publishing these at the end of each quarter. The results are very like those of BludgerTrack in finding solid swings against the government in Queensland (4.1%) and Western Australia (4.7%), only small swings in New South Wales (0.9%) and Victoria (2.2%), and a swing to the Coalition in South Australia (3.3%), where the Liberals seem to be benefiting from the new state government’s honeymoon and the decline of Nick Xenophon. UPDATE: Full results here; HT to GhostWhoVotes.
Finally, it is anticipated that a by-election in Wentworth will be held on October 6, after Malcolm Turnbull today told colleagues he would resign from parliament on Friday. While Christine Foster, Sydney councillor and sister of Tony Abbott, has attracted the most media attention, Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the more likely Liberal candidate is Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel. Others mentioned as candidates are Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign, who will vie with Sharma for backing from factional moderates; Peter King, tha barrister who held the seat from 2001 until Turnbull defeated him for preselection in 2004; Katherine O’Regan, a Woollahra councillor.
@Barney
Let me guess
LNP will go 1980s again.
Russian exercises imn the North pacific are interesting but I think THIS is of more relevnce to us
https://southfront.org/chinese-naval-expansion-hits-high-gear/
How many years bfore we have a submarine?
15 ships in 7 month – say 25 in a year is one helluva lot. To put it in perspective we have a total of 47 ships. So every 2 years they are building our entire navy.
The US has 415 ships – so in 8-9 years the Chinese would be building the entire US fleet.
China currently has 715 ships although 220 are just patrol boats. Still one helluva big navy now.
Millennial @ #600 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 7:07 pm
Millenial
I hope you are not one who still thinks that China has an outdated military or that Russian stuff is old and tired?
China has been very actively modernizing – navy particularly and it is now moving into aircraft.
Russia has always been at the forefront of missile and rocket technology and its land tanks etc are apparently very good – so I have read etc.
BiGD,
Vietnam doesn’t sound like Fun Central these days.
Increasing employment and wages require a suite of measures. First, fiscal policy should be aimed at keeping aggregate demand at a level consistent with full employment. Second, workers’ bargaining power needs to be strengthened, so that the wages share of the economy has a floor below it. Third, investment in the capital stock needs to be encouraged so that total per capital productivity can increase, leading to real income growth. This should include public investment aimed at increasing the capital intensity of the economy in transport, communications, the environment, in utilities, and in the technical resources required to maintain a competitive industrial base. Fourth, there must be continuing investment in human capital – the skills, knowledge, protection and health – of the workforce. Fifth, we need to run Labour-force and demographic policies that ensure we have a resilient, adaptable, competitive and productive economy. Sixth, we need to apply protective and re-distributive measures within the tax system to correct the tendency for capitalist economies to generate inequalities and other market failures.
“Russia has always been at the forefront of missile and rocket technology and its land tanks etc are apparently very good – so I have read etc.”
Maybe we should dump the Yanks and get our war stuff from the Soviets.
DtT
Lurking here. Have not been posting as focussed on health and work.
Good to see Labor’s position firming up. Thanks for asking.
Millenial
And a ‘few’ Chinese soldiers doing the same IN Russia.
.
“China, which has steadily tightened ties with Moscow in recent years, will contribute 3,200 troops and 30 aircraft.”
TRog:
Good to see you again, we’ve been wondering for a while now how you’ve been.
Cameron must be into self-parody.
Trog Sorrenson @ #607 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 7:17 pm
Good to hear from you trog
I have been concerned.
How is it going?
I have been through some of what you face so all the very best.
Sohar @ #606 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 7:16 pm
Sohar
That is what Turkey tried to do and they have 100% tariffs or some such placed on them.
However the Chinese seem to have the art of ship building down pat.
Hey Trog. Good to see you.
C@tmomma @ #1258 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 4:14 pm
It’s the problem with any single Party system, they do what they want.
If you’re in the way you soon find out and move or are moved, otherwise you wouldn’t know.
So what ever these peoples issues are, probably 99%+ of the population wouldn’t know Jack about it and life goes on as it always has.
So, yes it is as much fun as it’s always been. 🙂 🙁
briefly:
We need a sane coalition party, not the febrile, backwards-looking bunch of know-nothings currently inhabiting the party, cheered on by idiots like Ross Cameron and Chris Kenny.
You can look to the US and what’s happened to the Republicans to see what happens when your party becomes a narrow band of the same kinds of people, with little to no diversity of thought, background or experience.
Confessions….exactly…well put.
Trog Sorrenson @ #1257 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 7:17 pm
Best wishes
😏
When Chris Kenny was with The Advertiser in Adelaide, his Editorial in the lead up to a State election (and at the time of the TDU which is why my son and I were in Adelaide) bragged that only once in 120 years had the paper canvassed a vote for Labor at either State or Federal level and that they were proud of that record
Perhaps Kenny and his ilk should move to a totalitarian State – because that is their agenda
I can suggest a few
Anyone have suggestions for where Kenny should aim his row boat for?
Individuals such as Kenny and Sukkar do a very great disservice to all males
Thank goodness you’re still around, Trog! 🙂
Sohar @ 7:16pm
I think the Indonesians and quite a few other nations do.
It makes them more than competitive with Australia’s F-35 monsters and other purchases.
Hi Trog
Best wishes.
Andrew Probyn
@andrewprobyn
·
27m
A recap.
@lindareynoldswa
says allegations of bullying and intimidation by fellow Libs are “matters for the Government whips to address” and yet not a peep heard from Chief Whip
@NolaMarinoMP
despite multiple inquiries to her personally and to her office. Very ordinary.
#auspol
Observer @ #1272 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 4:33 pm
ENE. if they miss American Samoa, then there’s nothing until they hit America. 🙂
Anyone know who the former army general is he’s referring to?
Leader of the Opposition, Bill Shorten is in Perth this evening and will hold a town hall meeting with Labor’s Senator for Western Australia, Sue Lines and Labor’s candidate for Pearce, Kim Travers, 7:00PM local time #auspol
Observer, I reckon Chris Kenny needs to aim his boat for one of the Pacific Islands disappearing beneath the waves as a result of Global Warming. When it’s not there by the time he gets there it might serve as a salutary lesson for him that a big mouth isn’t the answer to all problems.
Thanks all. Cancer responded to chemo as assessed by scan two months ago. Another scan in a couple of weeks. I want to try and stay off chemo unless absolutely necessary.
Saw BK posted a great link to reneweconomy this am! Keep up the good work BK. The Coalition energy stupidity is going to cost it dearly. We could also use a federal ICAC investigation into potential coal payouts to the Libs. There is a strong whiff of corruption in the whole thing. Joyce is particularly suss.
I know we went over this yesterday, but I wonder if Husar is reconsidering her retirement given the revelations from Banks.
Fess
Linda Reynolds was a Army Adjutant General (Brigadier)
Australian Army Reserve 1984-2012
So I guess a sort of General?
Trog:
That sounds encouraging on the health front.
Confessions @ #1278 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 4:39 pm
Molan?
Confessions,
Linda Reynolds is the former Army General. Not sure who the former News Corp lawyer is though!
Yeah a Brigadier General is a General.
Thanks Sprocket. Yes, it would be Linda Reynolds.
General Panic ?
C@t:
I’m guessing JBishop.
Trog,
Simon Holmes a Court is doing sterling work on Twitter too!
‘fess,
Maybe.
There are a couple of issues at play from my perspective
Firstly no one is always right so our democracy is enhanced by a competition of ideas and agendas – and with changes in government balance is retained between competing ideas and agendas
Brief but you get the gist
Secondly there is the issue of emboldenment with the respectful functioning of society at risk because minorities acting to the detriment of a functioning society are emboldened whereas previously they may have been thought processes not played out because of the risk of alienation
The dysfunctional Liberal Party aided and abetted by its former Candidate, Hanson and by the National Party are currently a stain on Australia and that is damaging because they are the alternate government – so we do not have an alternate government ( noting they currently occupy the Treasury benches which is the real problem!!!)
Trog Sorrenson @ #1276 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 7:40 pm
Trog
I would not be totally hostile to chemo. It knocks one about a bit but nowhere ner the horror of the past. They seem to be able to control the nausea these days.
Trog Sorrenson @ #1276 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 7:40 pm
Agree
Not just Barnaby though.
C@t
Yes Simon is a class act
Dumb Dumb
delete embarrassed 🙂
Brigadiers are generals.
Hey Trog! Great to see you and pleased the chemo worked this time around. Keep up the regime and keep focussed – we want to hear more from you.
Welcome back Trog, keep up the good work. 🙂
All the best Trog. I miss your contributions!
@ Roger:
“Sorry, Sustainable Future, but you are being very naive
I have no doubt you sincerely hope for Labor government but the rest of your comment, particularly where you have attempted to ascribe ALP motivations, are nonsense. The ALP has been enacting progressive legislation long before the Greens political party existed.
Clearly a majority of the Greens voters prefer a Labor government to a Liberal one because 80% of them direct their preferences to Labor. 20% leak to the Liberals, perhaps reflecting a portion of “Petro Georgio” refugees from the Liberal party but perhaps also reflecting the ambiguity created by Greens “Labor = Liberal” rhetoric and the primary strategic focus of the Greens of dislodging Labor MPs from the lower house. They then openly campaign on possibility of being in coalition with a Labor government – despite Labor rejecting it – reinforcing attacks on Labor in the marginal seats it needs for government where the Greens are toxic
This is why Labor supporters hate the Greens political party. By their actions they increase the chance of conservative governments in Australia…and then they have the audacity to claim that Labor’s hard earned progressive legislative achievements are some how due to them.”
This. Times eleventy.
Just catching up, and I see sustainable future’s ‘sack cloth and ashes’ revisionism of the Hawke-Keating era. A pox on that I say.
Julie Banks was a very high-powered lawyer before becoming an MP.
“Brigadiers are generals”
Ummm. Not in Australia or the UK (and not in other commonwealth countries I think as well). Have not been considered of general rank for over 100 years. The Americans still consider them to be generals though (and I think the yanks are right on that score as well).