Miscellaneous Liberal leadership latest:
• Roy Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of 1288 respondents with two rounds of preferred prime minister question: Malcolm Turnbull versus Bill Shorten, and Peter Dutton versus Bill Shorten. The former credits Turnbull with a lead of 52% to 44.5%, while the latter has Shorten leading 59% to 36.5%. Morgan’s SMS polling doesn’t have a brilliant track record, and it has been noted in comments that the party breakdown figures suggest a sample with an excess of “others” voters, which includes One Nation. Even so, the poll is unlikely to be so flawed that Dutton’s poor showing should be dismissed outright. The demographic breakdowns are of interest in that Shorten leads Dutton by about 45% among respondents under 35, but Dutton has a slight lead among those 65 and over, which illustrates that Dutton’s constituency closely reflects that of the Liberal Party as a whole. Dutton also does particularly badly in Victoria, but better in Queensland.
• The government has referred the question of Peter Dutton’s potential Section 44 ineligibility to the Solicitor-General, Stephen Donaghue, as Labor circulates advice that a “reasonable prospect” exists that the High Court would disqualify him, given the chance. Malcolm Turnbull’s equivocal comments about the matter in Question Time yesterday angered Dutton’s supporters, given the matter can very easily be swept aside by making no move to refer it to the High Court. The prohibition on parliamentarians with a “direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth” was interpreted with extreme narrowness by Chief Justice Garfield Barwick in 1975, then far more broadly by a majority of the court in the Bob Day case last year. It seems a case can be made either way as to whether Peter Dutton lands on the wrong side of the new line, by reason of a family trust that owns two childcare centres in receipt of government subsidies. Anne Twomey in The Conversation notes the government could face a welter of litigation arising over any action taken by Dutton as minister while ineligible, which would apply from three months after the time he became subject to the pecuniary interest.
• Antony Green lays out the case against an early election. On top of anything else, it is noted that the Liberals simply aren’t ready for one, financially or in terms of candidate selection. He also comes down hard on the notion that Malcolm Turnbull could forestall a leadership defeat by going to an early election (which may owe its popularity to the end of season three of The Thick of It), on the grounds that it is so obviously self-defeating as to be unworthy of consideration.
• Nonetheless, the potential for a dissolution to be requested by a tottering leader raises intriguing constitutional questions. In her book The Veiled Sceptre: Reserve Powers of Heads of State in Westminster Systems, Anne Twomey cites somewhat contrary views from Robert Blackburn, who suggests a Governor-General would be “duty-bound to reject any request by a Prime Minister for dissolution during a leadership contest”, and George Winterton, who argues a chief minister should be required to demonstrate his or her support on the floor of parliament where the matter is in doubt. Blackburn’s quote raises the question of what constitutes a leadership contest, which is distinctly different in the British context he was addressing as compared with Australian practice. Winterton’s point arose in a piece on Australian state Governors, and well describes the attitude taken by Queensland Governor Walter Campbell in 1987, when Joh Bjelke-Petersen was setting the current record for intransigence by a leader in the process of being ousted by his party.
JBishop is not the Murdoch mafia’s favoured candidate.
Don’t be surprised if there is some unflattering reporting of her in tomorrow’s papers.
The stories will have been researched and written a while ago and saved for times like this.
In contrast expert the Perth media to go full gush for “our Julie”
“Julie to be PM. No room in that ring for anyone else.”
Asbestos Lady is nasty enough and vicious enough to lead the “Liberals” but she’d make Turnbull, even Abbott, look competent.
There is no way Julie Bishop will be elected liberal leader.
Morrison v Dutton is the only game in town.
Cormann adds legitimacy to the Dutton campaign and he will not let this farce run beyond tomorrow.
Cheers and a great night to all.
Australia is still deeply misogynistic. Bishop if elected will hand a landslide to Labor at the next election. All of the rhetoric I heard from conservatives during the end of Gillard tenure was purely misogynistic without evil a vehil of an argument to hide it behind. I’m certain that a lot of dyed in the wool LNP voters would rather vote Labor / Shorten than for a woman.
anton + other bludgers
100% the only clean way out is to go for an election.
Worst outcome is a Dutton dictatorship.
“The Liberals deserve a resounding electoral defeat and to spend a lengthy period in opposition”
The 2004 defeat was so bad that the ALP were consigned to opposition for several terms…
The 2007 defeat was so bad that the Libs were consigned to opposition for several terms…
The 2013 defeat was so bad that the ALP were consigned to opposition for several terms…
There is no defeat so bad that things can’t change quickly. Surely Queensland has taught us that…
All those dismissing JBishop’s leadership appeal to voters forget that she has the one thing Dutton and Morrison don’t have: some kind of name recognition in the public, and relative popular appeal.
And yes the country might still be misogynistic, but that should never be reason to push down a more (ostensibly) competent woman leader for a position in favour of her way less competent male counterparts.
Steve
On Asbestos Lady, I visited Wittenoom on my recent Pilbara road trip.
Just a few abandoned houses and ironically a faded sign telling us that the upgrading of the road through town was a Commonwealth Bicentennial Road Project.
It is sad that such a pretty place which would probably be popular with tourists will forever be remembered for the appalling behaviour of the mining company and its partners in the legal profession.
Rossmcg. @ #1551 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 6:36 pm
Ch7 News in Perth was certainly bigging up the chances of Bishop becoming the first female Liberal PM, which I guess is understandable. Local lass and all that.
And yet following their 2007 defeat the coalition has failed to rebuild and refresh.
Maybe that electoral defeat wasn’t so bad for them.
Martin B
………Potatoes , Peanuts and Bananas are not as benign as they appear 🙂
@Martin B
I don’t think we know yet if the Liberal and National parties are going to exist in their present form after they enter opposition.
There’s a Greens’ leadership challenge!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1032217557506260992
😉
My wife and daughter who never vote Lib say they might vote for Bishop.
The Liberals are hopelessly divided
The best outcome for Labor is for Morrison to become PM.
The right wingers of the party will be apoplectic.
They have not forgiven those who deposed Abbott for Turnbull. Scomo will not appease them
Dutton or bust
ANTONBRUCKNER11 says:
Thursday, August 23, 2018 at 7:39 pm
Don, a very good article from Anthony Green on Turnbull’s options re an election and the GG’s responsibilities.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-22/the-when-and-how-of-calling-the-next-federal-election/10153686
_________________________
Thanks very much for that. A useful summing up.
I note the following:
________________
But the office of the Governor-General monitors the media. Were the Prime Minister to call an election to avoid being deposed by his party, the Governor-General would be bound to follow that advice, but would be aware of what was occurring. The early election request might be delayed by obfuscation and prevarication from Yarralumla.
_________________
Is the Liberal Party ready for an election?
Clearly not. The party has few candidates pre-selected in seats currently held by the Labor Party. There are also several of the Government’s own seats where sitting members are yet to be confirmed as candidates.
There are also numerous articles citing the Liberal Party’s fundraising shortfall. It has been well documented that Mr Turnbull had to donate $1.75 million to keep the Liberal Party’s campaign afloat in the final days of the 2016 election.
In contrast, the Labor Party is well advanced in selecting candidates for Coalition held seats. Labor was also on war footing in case the Government called an election after winning either the Braddon or Longman by-elections on July 28. Labor won both, and the LNP’s poor primary vote in Longman has triggered the Government’s current leadership turmoil.
Labor would clearly have an advantage if Mr Turnbull, or any successor, were to call an election in the short term
_______________________
If the PM were replaced could the Government survive in the House of Representatives?
The events of Tuesday raised questions of whether the election of Peter Dutton as Liberal leader and prime minister would see government members defect to the crossbench.
The Government currently has 75 members on the floor of the House of Representatives, opposed by 69 Labor members and five cross bench members. The Speaker Tony Smith only votes in the event of a tie.
If all members are present and voting for the Government, it cannot be defeated on substantive motions, those concerning legislation or votes of confidence. It is also able to control the day-to-day business of the Government and to move that opposition members “no longer be heard” when they try to disrupt the Government’s business.
___________________
So the message I get from all that is that I am wrong to think that the GG would make any move to tell MT to get his act together.
At the same time I am also mindful of the events of 1975. It would seem that despite the rules and conventions, the GG has broad powers to interfere should he/she choose to do so.
We must wait and see, I guess.
So is anything actually happening, or is Turnbull still hiding in his hole and refusing to call a party-room meeting? It’ll be fun if it’s the second thing, and then he decides to just let it drag on and on.
Is there like, a process for if Turnbull decided to just keep on hiding and not calling the meeting, like, indefinitely.
This sums up pretty much how the majority of the country is feeling…….
https://twitter.com/danilic/status/1032579732783607808
Diogenes @ #1564 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 8:49 pm
Yes. A female PM is actually dangerous. But the far-right would never tolerate such a thing anyways.
Fess
JBishop is even more disliked than Scomo by the right wingers.
Dio:
I trust that you are disabusing them of the notion that just because the Liberals change leaders, their policies and reform stagnation remains.
Malcolm supped with the Devil and forgot to bring a long spoon: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-made-a-deal-with-the-devil-now-the-devil-has-called-time-20180823-p4zzfc.html
Vic:
Yes, which is why there’s a small part of me that hopes she wins a leadership contest! 😀
I wasn’t supporting Julie just observing that with that hat in the ring there would be no room for anyone else.
Personally I don’t care who they replace Turnbull with because I won’t be voting for them next election. They need a serious kick up the Kyber.
Where is ModLib ? 😀
Confessions,
The one thing that is happening in the liberal party atm is no one cares who the public support. If they did Turnbull would be riding high and all the bullshit of this week would be nothing but a bad dream.
The driving force behind this week is right wing /conservatives v conservative /moderates and all the sub factional bullshit in between.
Whoever the ultimate winner of this contest turns out to be whether the voters like he of her will be totally irelevant.
The red fog has desended over the liberal caucus and reason and common sense play no part.
The political equivalent of the Viking beserker has taken over.
God bless them all.
Cheers.
a r says:
Thursday, August 23, 2018 at 8:51 pm
So is anything actually happening, or is Turnbull still hiding in his hole and refusing to call a party-room meeting? It’ll be fun if it’s the second thing, and then he decides to just let it drag on and on.
Is there like, a process for if Turnbull decided to just keep on hiding and not calling the meeting, like, indefinitely.
_______
Isn’t there a scheduled party meeting in about two weeks?
Joe Hockey is back in Oz and in Perth…. But his reply to going back to Politics:
Joe Hockey
Verified account @JoeHockey
1h1 hour ago
Joe Hockey Retweeted Joseph Carrozzi
NO…. oh let me think about that.. NO WAY.
Good.
Yep I’m sure if we all cast around in our families we’ll be able to point to (especially female) relatives that like Bishop politics aside. I reckon if they get the jitters about the backlash to this push they might see her as more electable. Nonetheless I think they’ll go to Morrison
Don – there must be a partyroom meeting in two week’s time when Parliament resumes. I will not be the least bit surprised if he does not see the letter with 43 signatures and he says, get stuffed. I won a ballot on Monday. I’m still PM. He is NOT just going to roll over. He will fight like an alley cat. Then he might see if he can rally the moderates around him and pretty much exclude the conservatives. The party has to be split. Why not now? Dunno. But he’s not going to roll over to his enemies.
Steve777
Peter Hartcher has summed up the situation perfectly!
“And yet following their 2007 defeat the coalition has failed to rebuild and refresh.”
Arguably the ALP is only a slightly rejuvenated version of the post 2010 defeat. Although obviously the talent runs a bit deeper on that side…
Confessions @ #1573 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 6:53 pm
Like I said yesterday morning,
BRING BACK SOPHIE!!!!!
She’s more obnoxious than Morrison, Dutton and Abbott combined, and she’s female (apparently).
Winner, winner, throw up your dinner.
ABC News 24 reporting that Dutton camp claim 40 signatures on petition.
It doesnt matter who wins, its just reshuffling a badly stacked deck, whoever leads wont have any better chance of getting stuff through the senate, and there re battle-lines now, so they still have to deal with other faction.
#ReachTEL Poll Preferred LIB Leader: Turnbull 38.1 Bishop 29.2 Abbott 14.0 Dutton 10.2 Morrison 8.6
#ReachTEL Poll Preferred LIB Leader (L/NP voters): Turnbull 53.5 Abbott 15.5 Dutton 12.5 Bishop 11.9 Morrison 6.6
Bishop is more popular to the wider electorate, than LNP voters specifically, and they cant win votes from people who already vote for them, so she is a very obvious choice. But they are just choosing who will rule over the ashes.
doyley:
If the Abbottobods had any principles they wouldn’t just resign from the frontbench, but from the Liberal party and would instead join the Bernardi Party or PHON.
JBish seems the least unelectable of the candidates (not saying much) and could be best equipped to sell the line of being a circuit breaker. If maximising electoral prospects was a rational motivator for the coalition though this amazing saga wouldn’t be unfolding, and the enmities and divisions between the players run so deep that none of the current players will be able to break the circuit. A thumping loss at an election is the catharsis they need.
Thoughtful, interesting article in the SMH by Catherine McGregor:
“Mathias Cormann attempted to deliver the death blow. Without relish he wielded his blade, a distraught, reluctant Brutus to the Cassius from Queensland. But in its current state the Liberal Party cannot even organise an assassination, let alone run the country.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-liberal-party-is-teetering-on-the-brink-of-extinction-20180823-p4zzbb.html
The article linked above by Steve777 from Peter Hartcher nails it.
Worth reading
Martin…. fmd where do we start???? 2010..
Guardian reporting poll result that Shorten popularity improves markedly if Dutton Lib leader.
It goes without saying that the far-right of the Liberal Party are completely out of touch with Australia in 2018. They’re delusional, and living in the past if they believe their brand of right-wing nuttery still has mass-appeal to the electorate. Their target demographic is largely ageing and dying/will die off soon enough. Just like their political careers.
Labor has many policies today that it either didn’t have in 2013, or have since been recalibrated since then. It also has focused on diversity in the Caucus, and has targeted grassroots campaigning which on the surface at least, appears to be standing the party in good stead for elections.
The Liberals did none of this work and are paying for it now.
confessions,
The problem is the right wing of the liberals see themselves as the spear carriers of true liberal values.
They are the liberal party.
Everyone else is irelevant and a drag on the liberal vote.
Sad but that is how they think.
Julie Bishop will not do. Morrison will not do.
If Dutton does not win then the internals will continue.
I think Cormann is now well aware of this and reluctantly has accepted that for there to be any chance of internal peace Dutton has to win.
Cheers.
Amazing how insightful Hartcher can be when he’s not expecting any more tasty treats from the PM’s office.
MartinB
Labor’s problems in 2013 were nothing like the deep seated structural problems within the current Liberals.
Dan G:
Poor BK has suffered enough!
“fmd where do we start????”
I was no huge Stephen Smith fan, but pound for pound, replacing him with David Johnson in 2013 seemed like the worst talent swap going around.
But in any case, I guess my point was that I don’t think that every loss requires the new broom coming through. Better off just having decent people in there in the first place. (Hence the Libs structural difficulties…)