Miscellaneous Liberal leadership latest:
• Roy Morgan has conducted an SMS poll of 1288 respondents with two rounds of preferred prime minister question: Malcolm Turnbull versus Bill Shorten, and Peter Dutton versus Bill Shorten. The former credits Turnbull with a lead of 52% to 44.5%, while the latter has Shorten leading 59% to 36.5%. Morgan’s SMS polling doesn’t have a brilliant track record, and it has been noted in comments that the party breakdown figures suggest a sample with an excess of “others” voters, which includes One Nation. Even so, the poll is unlikely to be so flawed that Dutton’s poor showing should be dismissed outright. The demographic breakdowns are of interest in that Shorten leads Dutton by about 45% among respondents under 35, but Dutton has a slight lead among those 65 and over, which illustrates that Dutton’s constituency closely reflects that of the Liberal Party as a whole. Dutton also does particularly badly in Victoria, but better in Queensland.
• The government has referred the question of Peter Dutton’s potential Section 44 ineligibility to the Solicitor-General, Stephen Donaghue, as Labor circulates advice that a “reasonable prospect” exists that the High Court would disqualify him, given the chance. Malcolm Turnbull’s equivocal comments about the matter in Question Time yesterday angered Dutton’s supporters, given the matter can very easily be swept aside by making no move to refer it to the High Court. The prohibition on parliamentarians with a “direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth” was interpreted with extreme narrowness by Chief Justice Garfield Barwick in 1975, then far more broadly by a majority of the court in the Bob Day case last year. It seems a case can be made either way as to whether Peter Dutton lands on the wrong side of the new line, by reason of a family trust that owns two childcare centres in receipt of government subsidies. Anne Twomey in The Conversation notes the government could face a welter of litigation arising over any action taken by Dutton as minister while ineligible, which would apply from three months after the time he became subject to the pecuniary interest.
• Antony Green lays out the case against an early election. On top of anything else, it is noted that the Liberals simply aren’t ready for one, financially or in terms of candidate selection. He also comes down hard on the notion that Malcolm Turnbull could forestall a leadership defeat by going to an early election (which may owe its popularity to the end of season three of The Thick of It), on the grounds that it is so obviously self-defeating as to be unworthy of consideration.
• Nonetheless, the potential for a dissolution to be requested by a tottering leader raises intriguing constitutional questions. In her book The Veiled Sceptre: Reserve Powers of Heads of State in Westminster Systems, Anne Twomey cites somewhat contrary views from Robert Blackburn, who suggests a Governor-General would be “duty-bound to reject any request by a Prime Minister for dissolution during a leadership contest”, and George Winterton, who argues a chief minister should be required to demonstrate his or her support on the floor of parliament where the matter is in doubt. Blackburn’s quote raises the question of what constitutes a leadership contest, which is distinctly different in the British context he was addressing as compared with Australian practice. Winterton’s point arose in a piece on Australian state Governors, and well describes the attitude taken by Queensland Governor Walter Campbell in 1987, when Joh Bjelke-Petersen was setting the current record for intransigence by a leader in the process of being ousted by his party.
Anyone who respects Bishop, B, as does the windbag Murray does, is suspect of being influenced by his boss, who only came recently to Oz to award one on his own, supported by the rare and lovely Jerry.
Yeah, fair point on ALP grass-roots campaigning in the last few elections. Does seem to have gone up a notch.
doyley:
Yes I agree that if Dutton doesn’t get elected leader the internal tensions are bound to continue.
Doyley – I think you’re right. And it shows was a stick of shit Cormann is. He thinks the “party” is more important than the values it transmits (though I suspect he’s pretty right-wing). So it’s fine for the right to bludgeon everyone else in the party if that brings peace (which it won’t)
Watching Dutton on TV this evening I was just stunned to see how gormless and stupid he looks. He will be electoral poison. I wonder if Rupes now seen him on TV and gone: Jesus Christ, he’s our candidate!
Annabel’s summary of the art of navigation in Canberra:
“”If you’re on red carpet, you’re in the Senate. If you’re on green, you’re in the Reps. If you’re on beige, you’re in the High Court reception awaiting directions on your s44 hearing.”
Is there any mention of the Parakeet of High Fashion being Deputy Leader to Abbott, then Deputy Leader to Mr HIH?
So her WA bloc supported the defeat of Abbott – to whom she was Deputy Leader
How does that play out if she becomes Leader?
Abbott is still in the Parliament
And probably as a Minister
Is how Abbott regards Bishop on the public record?
Mr Newbie – But I suspect that, for the right-wing of the liberal party, it is really all about race. That is what gives them their anger and fervor. Does Dutton have the support of any non-white MPs?
I mean, Bishop, J – not that that’s much different.
Other than Ian Goodenough and Ken Wyatt, are there any Lib MPs that are non-white?
Excuse me, I don’t mean to be sexist, but the former member for kerosene baths and aged hair must be called for what she is…(?).
Martin
There is the Senator from Kenya,
Oh yeah, I forgot she’s now a Lib
Mike Carlton
@MikeCarlton01
13m13 minutes ago
Bronwyn Bishop going berko on Sky: “Turnbull has dragged us into the socialist gutter ! “
Love it…
Guess who’s chiming in…
Lee Lin Chin
Verified account @LeeLinChin
3h3 hours ago
Dear @AustralianLabor & @Greens, I will now accept opening bids. How much would you like me to run for the federal seat of Wentworth?
#PrimeChinister
A question.
If the non Dutton runners entered the race because he was trying to roll Mal & the prospect of Dutton was untenable what would their reason be to still keep going when Dutton is ruled ineligible in the morning.
I’m still picking Mal to be PM till the election.
Bronwyn Bishop going berko on Sky: “Turnbull has dragged us into the socialist gutter !
——
The socialist gutter is that terrible place where servants are treated almost like their Masters. No Liberal could abide it 🙂
Martin B @ #1606 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 7:30 pm
There’s Lucy Gichuhi in SA, but I can’t believe there’s only the 3 of them.
Stephen Koukoulas
Verified account @TheKouk
49s50 seconds ago
Latest Liberal leader betting:
Dutton $2.00
Morrison $3.00
Bishop. $3.25
Turnbull $15.00 (most recent money on Mal retaining the job)
With this s**tstorm, can’t see him being PM until the election, but he could be PM until Sep 10 at this rate…
Lee Lin Chin would be a wonderful MP … imagine the clothes and the speeches!!!
had a call an hour or so ago from Labor’s candidate in Tangney, Marion Boswell.
She is trouper, stood against Nahan in the state election and has now put her hand up against Ben Morton in one of the Libs’ safest seats. Gotta admire that.
Morton is reported to be doing the numbers for Morrison, obviously a man whose ambitions exceed his talents if the few times I have seen him speak in the parliament are a guide.
Someone a while back said that the Liberal factions comprised hard right ideologues and opportunistic pragmatists. Malcolm is clearly in the latter camp. So is Scott Morrison, although his personal beliefs are with the former.
Dutton – actually not sure. He doesn’t seems to be religious, for example. Probably just a bigot. Economically, he’s personally on the side of money, would have a Scrooge-like attitude to those who fall behind, but will be as pragmatic as needed to garner votes.
As for Bishop, basically a much weaker version of Malcolm, although she never had strong beliefs to start with. She’ll compromise with the right wing ideologues as much as she thinks is required.
That footage of BBishop has to be seen to be believed.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1032592991683145730
So how much longer do we need to wait for a solution to this problem.
Murray and his satellites are essentially sleazebags – acolytes of their dearest great uncle. We all have mad old uncles, whom we expect thereof.
Zoilord – Let it be Dutton. It will be armageddon!
Steve777 – Is the unifying ideology of the hard-right of the liberal party really racism (laced with bigotry?) The party is really the racists and the non-racists.
boomy1 @ #1625 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 9:48 pm
There is no solution to the problem the Liberals have.
But if you mean the current fiasco, then I think it may run until September 10. Then Mal will be summarily executed.
sportsbet – bishop 2.30, dutton 2.40, morrison 4.00
signatures on the petition – 43-45 1.65, 46-50 3.00, 51-55 8.00
One thing worth noting about the “moderates” in the Liberal Party is that they have suffered an awful shock. They have been kicked around and stomped on. They now realised they are in a different party to the one they thought they were in. That will toughen them up. They will learn and they will fight back. That is basic human nature.
Fess
I dislike BBishop immensely but she is the first one I have heard this week mention Turnbull handing over half a billion dollars to the foundation to people they are known to him!
You can bet on how many signatures are on the petition? 😮
boomy1 @ #1625 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 9:48 pm
Well Turnbull is spineless, and Dutton is ineligible, and Morrison and Bishop are both powerless.
So by my math that’s…either a long time or until the GG steps in and forces an election. Although the latter thing only occurs if the GG is less spineless than Turnbull. Which is a pretty low bar to clear, but who knows?
Bronny Bishop
She voted for Mal to dump Abbott
What a loon
Vic:
True and the way she said it made it sound downright sinister 😆
Confessions @ #1632 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 9:53 pm
That one’s easy. If the petition ever sees the light of day, it will have exactly 43 signatures on it.
Dutton won’t waste time looking for number 44, and any less than 43 and the petition will never surface.
Turnbull is widely perceived to be socialist or at the very least unacceptably liberal by RWNJs.
I’m really scratching my head for a shred of evidence of this judging from his conduct as PM.
Can anybody help me out?
If I was a Lib moderate and I saw what the hard right has done, I would say F.U. I’ll keep Turnbull, thank you very much!. Don’t want ScoMo; don’t want Julie. I’ll keep the man you tried to bounce. I really think Turnbull is a revolting human being. But surely there is a possibility that, if Turnbull can buy a week or two, that might happen. That means, of course, that the party will split. But so be it.
Fess
Yes she did. That conduct by Turnbull was one of the major catalysts for the party deciding to act now on his removal.
Still waiting fo JFrydenberg to pop up.
Do you know why people don’t make jokes about Jonestown?
Not that anyone watch’s Sky News, but that could increase when it goes feral in early September.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #254 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 9:57 pm
Well he did give some of his dodgy charity money to the wayside chapel.
Even worse, I think he goes to art galleries.
“But if you mean the current fiasco, then I think it may run until September 10. Then Mal will be summarily executed.”
I’m sorry, but if Malcy survives tomorrow by September 10 he’ll be two weeks into a self funded 6 week election campaign against both the RWNJs in his own party and KillBill.
It will be a glorious last huzzah from the Fizza!
AE – The hard-right is a cult and Turnbull is not an initiate. They know he makes all the right noises, but he does not have faith. He is a phoney. I think you’ve got to think about it in religious terms. They are seriously weird dudes.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1637 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 9:57 pm
You’re looking for a rational explanation for the antics of RWNJs?
Now that’s crazy! 🙂
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1637 Thursday, August 23rd, 2018 – 9:57 pm
It’s quite simple really.
Turnbull is a little to the left of the Liberal Right.
Therefore, he’s a Socialist.
See also: Hillary Clinton, Neoliberal Shill.
AE – Turnbull is a snivelling coward. But when it comes to getting revenge and self-preservation, he will be as brave as a lion. He does not take rejection well. The hard right should remember what he did to Nessie the cat.
Would love to be a fly on the wall in the Howards’ living room at the moment. The first generation founds the business, the next creates the dynasty, then subsequent offspring piss it all up against a wall.
I watched Peta Credlin and Andrew Bolt on Sky earlier.
To say they dislike Turnbull would be an understatement
Vic:
Apparently Frydenberg has put his hand up to deputise JBishop.