Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition narrows what was previously an unusually strong Labor lead from Ipsos, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to surge.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.

The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. it is within your power to simply ignore the whole thing if you are not interested.

    But I am, I reckon I live on the same planet as you do. He (Trump) is the same crazed orange clown to me as he is to you. I want him gone but the world never dances to your tune. It’s just shit music mostly.

  3. boomy1 says: Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 12:23 pm

    it is within your power to simply ignore the whole thing if you are not interested.

    But I am, I reckon I live on the same planet as you do. He (Trump) is the same crazed orange clown to me as he is to you. I want him gone but the world never dances to your tune. It’s just shit music mostly.

    ********************************************************

    Robert Mueller will get one go at this – and its not like a trial of someone who just pulled a bank job – but I believe the Trump affair is the GREATEST CRIME ever pulled with a cast of hundreds and myriad of complex and colluding networks beyond anything ever seen before ……

  5. Robert Mueller will get one go at this – and its not like a trial of someone who just pulled a bank job – but I believe the Trump affair is the GREATEST CRIME ever pulled with a cast of hundreds and myriad of complex and colluding networks beyond anything ever seen before ……

    Yeah no worries mate the shuttle to Mars leaves in a little while. Being too paranoid is not fun. Believe me.

  6. A minute part of me doesn’t want the Trump Imbroglio to end. It’s the most absorbing political drama I’ve ever seen. Way better than anything concocted for TV or the cinemas!

  9. I personally blame Shorten for all loses that occur today, Labor and Liberal. I think Channel Nine said Bill is responsible for every opposition seat lost in a bielection since 1920.

  11. Confessions says: Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 12:41 pm

    A minute part of me doesn’t want the Trump Imbroglio to end. It’s the most absorbing political drama I’ve ever seen. Way better than anything concocted for TV or the cinemas!

    *****************************************************

    I have said before – even as gifted as a spy/suspense writer as Tom Clancy would not have the imagination to write such a complex set of scenarios as who and what is involved and linked together in the Trump saga – with rich cats like the Mercers funding places like CambridgeAnalytica involving Farage & Co with Brexit to colluding with the Trump campaign members with voter hacking and colluding with Russian hackers in discrediting opponents …… all linked to a man who has spent a lifetime involved in ‘dodgy’ practices of a financial nature that include fraud, tax evasion , money laundering etc and even possibly even such things as underage human trafficking ……

  12. I personally blame Shorten for all loses that occur today, Labor and Liberal. I think Channel Nine said Bill is responsible for every opposition seat lost in a bielection since 1920.

    Worst Troll ever!!

  13. boomy1 @ #2654 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 12:41 pm

    Robert Mueller will get one go at this – and its not like a trial of someone who just pulled a bank job – but I believe the Trump affair is the GREATEST CRIME ever pulled with a cast of hundreds and myriad of complex and colluding networks beyond anything ever seen before ……

    Yeah no worries mate the shuttle to Mars leaves in a little while. Being too paranoid is not fun. Believe me.

    So what are you on a politics blog for if talking about one of the biggest global political transformations that has occurred this century bores you so much?

    Maybe you’re the one who needs to go to Mars?

  14. Socrates @ #2658 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 12:52 pm

    I personally blame Shorten for all loses that occur today, Labor and Liberal. I think Channel Nine said Bill is responsible for every opposition seat lost in a bielection since 1920.

    Only the losses?
    Shorten is responsible for cutting penalty rates, the NBN failure, the failure of multiculturalism, global warming and the fact that the AFL and NFL are now basically unwatchable garbage.

    The man is a threat to our way of life.

  15. After Trump, I can’t read any of the Clancy type spy thrillers. They often have a scene where things get bad and the issue du jour is escalated to the Oval Office. Usually the President is a voice of wisdom or defiance that rallies the troops onward to a successful conclusion.
    Sometimes the president is effete and indecisive and a key staffer provides the necessary guidance.

    Imagine a post Trump scene. An exchange of fire with China or minor hot war in South America. Now the call would be ‘but it was Hillary and her hacked server, did you know I got the most votes ever!’.

  16. poroti @ #2653 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 10:38 am

    Well, just struck my blow against the Spivocracy. Now the waiting waiting waiting.

    As I posted on the other thread there were only 3 parties present handing out HTV’s at my polling place.

    Labor had 5 people there, the Greens and the Christians had 2 each. Labor looked very upbeat and the Greens were putting a brave face on it, but the Christians looked like they were ready to pack up and go home. And this was before 9 am so it’s either going to be a very long day for them, or a very short one when they decide to go and watch the footy instead.

  17. Kathryn Murphy getting a well deserved bollicking for her latest killBill article. Surprised she is allowing comments, but she has said that she basically doesn’t listen to any criticism as long as continues to speak the ‘truth’.

    For eg:

    These articles are just so frustrating. The Coalition is shown as making progress, with no word on the scandal after scandal that has beset them. Their race-baiting, prosecution of witness K, Barnaby’s scandal, Cash and so on get nothing. On the other side, we get ‘factional battles’, etc.

    The chances of Turnbull losing both seats and getting thrashed in Mayo means nothing, presumably?

    While journalists scream about losing their independence through mergers, I ask “what independence”. There isn’t a cigarette paper’s width difference between this dross and every other commentary on these by-elections.

    We really deserve better, we really do.

    Would love to support The Guardian once they get a decent political editor.

  18. Laborites were out campaigning this morning in Robertson for the federal election. And it hasn’t even been called yet. 🙂

  20. My top for today:
    Labor and Sharkie to win Perth, Fremantle and Mayo in a canter.

    Labor to win early in Longman and Braddon with big swings to it.

    The CPG to declare on Monday they knew it all along and by Wednesday it’ll be forgotten and there will be some other pretext for Kill Bill and Labor Leadershit.

  23. Just saw Murphy’s article, I stopped at this point (my emphasis):
    If Labor holds both seats comfortably, the field evidence will suggest the opposition remains on track to take government at the next federal election, lessening the immediate pressure on its leader, Bill Shorten.

    So if Labor does well, even ‘comfortably’, Shorten will still be under pressure after a couple of weeks break ? Is that how it works?

  24. Yes I do Cat … though I very much liked Tsirekas too. He is much loved in the 5dock end of electorate.

    I am hoping Sam can garner the votes in the south western end of the electorate

  25. boomy1 @ #2641 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 11:39 am

    fess

    Trumps action on a daily basis confirms that he is a willing agent of a foreign power. it is showing all and sundry in plain sight.

    When is it going to end though.? It just goes on and on and on. I’m sick of it. Where’s Lee Harvey Oswald when you need him.

    Don’t go down that path, mate. 🙁

    This has to be done properly, precisely to show that it can be without resorting to violence.

    If you want to stir up serious division, hatred, and violence in the US, and have the nasty consequences spill across the rest of the world, then assassinating Trump would be a very good way.

    Is that what you really want?

  26. “Cut through the business-speak and it’s clear — rural and regional journalism is entering unknown territory”

    The other big rural player, News Corp, also seems to be contemplating getting out. In what looks like an effort to fatten up local media for possible sale, the company has introduced a premium subscription for its local publications. My intelligence from inside News is that the move is going well financially. But for readers it means that if you want to read a suburban story in Adelaide or Townsville, you have to sign up to a whole year’s subscription.

    News’s chief operating officer, Damian Eales, told Mumbrella recently, “We are finding that people are increasingly willing to pay for a subscription that includes exclusive content about their local council, their local business community, local development applications, local personalities and much more… The learning for us is that the more scarce the content, the more valuable it is.”

    That shouldn’t be a surprise. In the new media world it is easier to find out what Donald Trump had for dinner last night than what is happening at your local school or why the pothole in the road hasn’t been fixed.

    Research here and in the United States signals that it is the democratic health of local communities that suffers first from declines in journalistic capacity. Local organisations — councils and police stations — step up by running web pages and Facebook pages, but they can’t replace boots-on-the-ground journalism — reporters sitting in court, attending local council meetings and asking tough questions.

    http://insidestory.org.au/for-sale-a-local-paper-near-you/

  28. Askgerbil Now
    ‏@Askgerbil
    11m

    The ALP candidates were eligible to sit in Parliament under the legal principle that applied since 1992.
    In 2018 the High Court changed that legal principle. The ALP could not have foreseen the change. Malcolm Turnbull lies @abcnews

  29. Yeesh people in Albany posting on Facebook asking where they go to vote today! Just goes to show how disengaged people are from things – no doubt seeing on the news re Perth and Fremantle by-elections and assuming the whole country was going to the polls today.

  32. Christine Phillips
    @cscviews

    So Laura Tingle says “the voters just don’t like Bill” I beg to to differ … the Media pack in Canberra ‘just don’t like Bill’. They are out every day prosecuting #LNP KillBill strategy. Absolutely shameful; meanwhile they are being sold out by the own management&Govt. #auspol

  34. There she goes again. Murphy issues a familiar sentence:

    To set ourselves up for that inevitable post super Saturday reckoning, let’s recap the story of the first half of 2018.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/28/its-a-sliding-doors-moment-for-labor-as-curtains-fall-on-byelection-circus

    She gives the impression that her article is a journey that both she and her students (i.e. readers) are all taking. It’s a journey of joint discovery. We are practically holding hands as we stroll together towards enlightenment.

    This is done via use of words like “Let’s” (i.e. “Let us“) and “We”. Additionally, there is a “story” to go back over, and “we” are going to recap it.

    In fact this “story” that “we” are recapping is simply Murphy’s version of history, and one that is extremely contentious: where any mistakes made by the government are sheeted home to anyone but Malcolm Turnbull, and Labor leaders are always in the sights of factional plotters and schemers wanting to take their jobs, ruin the party and stay in opposition forever.

    She writes as if she and us, her readers, are co-operative in discovering the truth together, when in reality it’s just Murphy shoving her own homegrown bullshit down our throats *yet again*.

    She learnt how to treat her readers like imbeciles while sitting cross-legged at The Age in front of her mentor, Michelle Grattan. Grattan’s speciality was expressing the bleedin’ obvious, common or garden CPG hokum and crass groupthink, while claiming it was profound insight, lecturing her readers as if they were ignorant morons in need of special tuition. Murphy tries to put over the same condescinding claptrap with even *less* chance of success.

    Simply awful stuff. Predictable, unoriginal herd-thought, where her heroes always come out miraculously unscathed, indeed without even coming under fire, the evil socialists always stuff it up, and schoolmarms rule the Earth.

  37. jenauthor @ #2677 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 2:15 pm

    JM

    I still think the ‘invitation’ Putin made to Trump is an offer of asylum

    One of the more likely outcomes, you’d have to say.

    As usual, Trump will do anything to avoid facing the consequences of his own actions, especially jail time, and having him alive and tweeting from the safety of Russia will help them perpetuate the division and hatred he has already sown and exploited in the US.

    Putin’s Russia have played this superbly. I don’t think that is disputable any longer. They are the current masters of psy-ops.

    With the Chinese rapidly catching up.

  40. Bushfire Bill @ #2684 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 3:08 pm

    There she goes again. Murphy issues a familiar sentence:

    To set ourselves up for that inevitable post super Saturday reckoning, let’s recap the story of the first half of 2018.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/28/its-a-sliding-doors-moment-for-labor-as-curtains-fall-on-byelection-circus

    She gives the impression that her article is a journey that both she and her students (i.e. readers) are all taking. It’s a journey of joint discovery. We are practically holding hands as we stroll together towards enlightenment.

    This is done via use of words like “Let’s” (i.e. “Let us“) and “We”. Additionally, there is a “story” to go back over, and “we” are going to recap it.

    In fact this “story” that “we” are recapping is simply Murphy’s version of history, and one that is extremely contentious: where any mistakes made by the government are sheeted home to anyone but Malcolm Turnbull, and Labor leaders are always in the sights of factional plotters and schemers wanting to take their jobs, ruin the party and stay in opposition forever.

    She writes as if she and us, her readers, are co-operative in discovering the truth together, when in reality it’s just Murphy shoving her own homegrown bullshit down our throats *yet again*.

    She learnt how to treat her readers like imbeciles while sitting cross-legged at The Age in front of her mentor, Michelle Grattan. Grattan’s speciality was expressing the bleedin’ obvious, common or garden CPG hokum and crass groupthink, while claiming it was profound insight, lecturing her readers as if they were ignorant morons in need of special tuition. Murphy tries to put over the same condescinding claptrap with even *less* chance of success.

    Simply awful stuff. Predictable, unoriginal herd-thought, where her heroes always come out miraculously unscathed, indeed without even coming under fire, the evil socialists always stuff it up, and schoolmarms rule the Earth.

    Try looking at the comments, which show all the insight that Murphy so obviously lacks.

  42. For example:

    Geezus wept Guardian; we are trying to save competent balanced informed journalism and then ….this. Please piss off to the established liars or the newly formed fabrication factory using this “piece” as your letter of introduction and as an application. Your CV, as it is, with speak for itself. I laughed at first about the LNP bit and how they “reset their political fortunes”; what from hopelessly divided to completely rooted? They are treating thinking people as fools; we don’t like it and you are trying to do the same. We don’t like that either.

  43. Diogenes @ #2546 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    Turnbull has said he’s backing Downer to run again in 2019 no matter how badly she loses. Dolly must have put the hard word on him.

    Sounds like a Captain’s pick overuling branch members & preselection processes etc.

    But allowed to go through to the keeper by CPG. Different situation if Shorten does similar.

  44. All the CPG plus the ABC are convinced that the Libs have “reset their political fortunes”, and insist that everything is a “test for Bill Shorten”.

    I really can’t understand where they get it from, except from press releases by the Coalition, and that is evidence either of sheer laziness or they are shit-scared of Turnbull and Fifield.

  46. It’s not Labor who tell lies. Turnbull projecting all day.

    Rowan‏ @FightingTories · 22m22 minutes ago

    Former Liberal senate president Stephen Parry sent others to the high court knowing he was a dual citizen covered up by the liberals and Fifield knew and told him to ” stay mum ” Fact

  48. lizzie @ #2694 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 12:46 pm

    All the CPG plus the ABC are convinced that the Libs have “reset their political fortunes”, and insist that everything is a “test for Bill Shorten”.

    I really can’t understand where they get it from, except from press releases by the Coalition, and that is evidence either of sheer laziness or they are shit-scared of Turnbull and Fifield.

    As Grog remarked a couple of elections ago, wtte – why employ so many in the CPG when they so very often hold the same views on most issues. Its rare to see differing views.

    But KillBill is so necessary to ensure the 2-3% plus business get tax cuts and the tighten of CGT & Deming measure don’t become law. Plus it will stop all the other changes a Labor win will entail.

    Thats why Shorten has to go – from the Tories viewpoint.

    As for the Guardian, with a few exceptions it might as well be rolled into the C9 takeover as well – its basically Fairfax political reporting and editing by former Fairfax people.

  50. There was a comment earlier in one of the active threads about Sharky’s record of voting with either Labor or the tories etc.

    The most important measurement of her votes is not how many times she voted with the Tories etc – Its what measures, what Bills she supported or opposed.

    Same goes for PHON, Greens etc.

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