Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition narrows what was previously an unusually strong Labor lead from Ipsos, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to surge.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.

The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Wayne says:
    Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 9:02 am

    I will be going no where as I know our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon and go on to win the next election

    So a slap on the face by reality is not going got be an issue?

  2. Dan Gulberry

    Lol!

    Rick Wilson GOP operative is releasing his book next week. Sums up perfectly…

    “everything Trump touches dies”

  5. Fess

    So much has happened in past week, hard to keep track of it all.

    There was a subpoena issued for one of Trumpolino’s money men which is significant and confirms that the approach by law enforcement follows the pattern of a mafia takedown. Which of course is logical considering that Trump is essentially a mobster.
    Although I Was really hoping for some indictments this week.
    Patience is not one of my virtues.

  7. Vic:

    I reckon the emoluments clause lawsuit ruling was a biggie. The media isn’t giving it much attention, but I think it’s potentially a huge problem for Trump and his family as it progresses.

  8. And picking up on #murdochNewsPoll asking how you would vote if Albo was leader, Stephen Koukolous has this..

    Time for a Kouk poll, following similar methodology to Newspoll today.
    Which leader of the Liberal Party would make you more likely to vote Liberal at the next election?

    Choices are:

    Malcolm Turnbull
    Mickey Mouse

    With 132 votes, MT 5% MM 95%

  9. The race is on to see who can take Donald Trump down first – US political commentator Bill Palmer

    At this point the question isn’t whether Donald Trump will be taken down, but who’s going to be the first to get him. There is now a line around the block of people who are seeking to be the first to get there. Some of these folks have been seeking to take Trump down all along, and are now finally within striking distance. Others are people who were once loyal to Trump, until they realized that loyalty was a one way street. The list just got even longer.

    Special Counsel Robert Mueller has long been the obvious candidate to take Donald Trump down. Sure enough, he’s just a few days from putting Trump’s campaign chairman on trial. He just revealed that he’s using Trump’s own tweets to help build the obstruction of justice case against him. He has three of Trump’s key campaign advisers lined up to testify against him as part of their plea deals. But Mueller is no longer the only one in the race to take Trump down.

    Michael Cohen is leaking incriminating evidence and now seems intent on taking Donald Trump down all by himself, even if Cohen has to set himself on fire in order to do it. Then there’s Michael Avenatti, who says he has evidence that Trump may have gotten one of his mistresses pregnant. Then there’s whoever leaked the fact that Cohen is willing to testify about Donald Trump knowing about the Trump Tower meeting with Russia in advance. Oh, and SDNY is now using the case against Cohen as an excuse to go squarely after the secrets of the Trump Organization.

    Then you’ve even got the people who are now signaling that they may be willing to help take Donald Trump down simply by refusing to help him. The ever-cowardly Paul Ryan and the ever-corrupt Trey Gowdy quickly shot down Team Trump’s attempt at impeaching Rod Rosenstein yesterday. Gowdy and Ryan appear to be afraid of getting caught up in Trump’s criminal obstruction antics, and are content to simply let him drown. As he spirals toward his inevitable downfall, Trump is running out of allies by the hour, and gaining enemies just as quickly.

  11. LOLGOP‏ @LOLGOP

    I love that this all hinges on the us believing that a son whose entire life is a plea for his dad’s attention didn’t tell his dad the most interesting thing happening in his entire existence.

  12. Then there’s Michael Avenatti, who says he has evidence that Trump may have gotten one of his mistresses pregnant.

    If true what’s the bet getting a woman pregnant who isn’t your wife and never will be STILL won’t mean a hill of beans to evangelicals? They’ll just keep on giving Trump their vote.

  13. Steve Gibbons
    ‏@SteveGibbonsXMP
    10m

    Funny @TurnbullMalcolm continually accuses Labor By-Election Candidates
    of lying re the Citizenship issues but never mentions former Senate President Stephen Parry who held on to his salary & perks long after he discovered he was ineligible to hold a Senate seat!

  14. phoenixRED @ #2609 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 6:59 am

    The race is on to see who can take Donald Trump down first – US political commentator Bill Palmer

    …

    The race might be on but it’s like snails doing a marathon.

    He won’t be successfully be impeached.

    Any court action against him has to wait until he leaves office.

    And I can’t see him resigning, that would imply he had a conscience and didn’t have his ego.

    🙂

  16. Ven says: Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 10:24 am

    PhoenixRED@10:01am
    What is the most interesting thing and who is the son?

    **************************************************

    Don Jr and the Trump campaigners at the Tower Meeting with the Russians – who were going to give them “dirt” on Hillary ……and Dad who lived at the Tower KNEW NOTHING about the meeting either before or after …… but Cohen has said he was a witness – with others – to Don Jr telling Dad what had happened

  18. Dan Gulberry,
    Muchas gracias for the link to another brilliant First Dog on the Moon toon.

    Instant classic line in there: “The Footyshowification of the nation’s media is almost complete”

    Bewdy, eh!

  19. phoenixRED @ #2610 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 8:01 am

    LOLGOP‏ @LOLGOP

    I love that this all hinges on the us believing that a son whose entire life is a plea for his dad’s attention didn’t tell his dad the most interesting thing happening in his entire existence.

    All we need is for Cohen to testify that Trump knew of the meeting and there you have it: collusion.

  20. Confessions says: Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 10:41 am

    phoenixRED @ #2610 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 8:01 am

    LOLGOP‏ @LOLGOP

    I love that this all hinges on the us believing that a son whose entire life is a plea for his dad’s attention didn’t tell his dad the most interesting thing happening in his entire existence.

    All we need is for Cohen to testify that Trump knew of the meeting and there you have it: collusion.

    *****************************************

    Cohen has said he was a witness – with others ……. and supposedly Paul Manafort was in the Tower in the same time so he may corroborate Cohen if he is questioned about it at his upcoming trial. There are ‘rumours’ that all this meeting etc etc on tape …… so it is going to be interesting if all comes out ….

  21. Confessions @ #2619 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 7:41 am

    phoenixRED @ #2610 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 8:01 am

    LOLGOP‏ @LOLGOP

    I love that this all hinges on the us believing that a son whose entire life is a plea for his dad’s attention didn’t tell his dad the most interesting thing happening in his entire existence.

    All we need is for Cohen to testify that Trump knew of the meeting and there you have it: collusion.

    And then what?

  22. Barney IDG

    Hey just in case you didn’t know William has kindly put a thread up relating to today’s Super Saturday by elections.

  25. This day is going to seem very long … and then we might not have definite results …. hmmm … better do some work then

  27. Vic
    Not even a whiff of smoke from Mueller. Everything is speculation. Claims and counterclaims. Relentless cable TV. When will Mueller strike?

  28. MSM Watchdog
    ‏@MSMWatchdog2013
    35m

    When reading articles by @smh @theage’s Michael Koziol, be aware that he was a regular contributor to Rowan Dean’s The Spectator. Many people don’t know that. It gives context to his often not so subtle anti @AustralianLabor stance.

  29. Al Pal says: Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 11:23 am

    Vic
    Not even a whiff of smoke from Mueller. Everything is speculation. Claims and counterclaims. Relentless cable TV. When will Mueller strike?

    *****************************************************

    Every day – something new comes up ……

  30. Al Pal

    as discussed, so much is happening right now. Mueller and the rest of the law enforcement teams are busy beavering away.
    As mentioned earlier, one of Trump’s money men has been subpoenaed to give evidence on the Trump Organisation. Mueller took down the Gotti crime family, and it appears that the strategy in this case is the same. A mafia takedown. Remembering that this also involves the Russian Mob.
    Of course, there are so many other tenacles at present. Maria Butina being arrested and held in custody is a biggie in the scheme of things.
    Apparently, Mueller was waiting at airport at same time Don Jnr was boarding a flight. I wasnt sure if it was a meme or for real. Reports suggest it was for real. Is Mueller trolling them? lol?!!

  31. And then what?

    Nobody knows. But it’s a necessary prerequisite for anything to happen, so everyone should be hoping that it does.

  32. (from Zoidlord on by-election thread)

    .@jacksonw____: @SusanLambALP was able to vote this morning, Trevor Ruthenberg was not. He doesn’t actually live in the Longman electorate. He was out campaigning with @PeterDutton_MP.

    When Turnbull goes away, Dutton comes out to play. C’mon CPG types, who will be the first to write that the knives are out for Turnbull if LNP loses in Longman?

  37. Richard BlumenthalVerified account@SenBlumenthal
    5h5 hours ago
    If Cohen is speaking the truth… & others can corroborate… Trump conspired with a foreign power who’s attacking our democratic process (again) & lied (again) to the American people about it. Criminal & inexcusable.

  38. fess

    Trumps action on a daily basis confirms that he is a willing agent of a foreign power. it is showing all and sundry in plain sight.

  41. The Liberals lining up a scapegoat in the event they lose Longman:

    Libs call for probe into GetUp! campaign

    BRAD NORINGTON
    The Liberals’ federal secretariat wants the AEC to investigate GetUp!’s conduct during the Longman by-election campaign. (Oz headline)

  42. fess

    Trumps action on a daily basis confirms that he is a willing agent of a foreign power. it is showing all and sundry in plain sight.

    When is it going to end though.? It just goes on and on and on. I’m sick of it. Where’s Lee Harvey Oswald when you need him.

  44. The problem that the Liberal Party has with complaining about Get Up is that Get Up is not a political party nor a charity. It is a community-funded non-profit citizens’ organisation that lobbies for issues of concern to its members. In other words, everything the Liberals hate with a vengeance.

  46. boomy1

    there are countless things I am sick of that never will end. This one may end at some point, but it wont be for a long while. it is within your power to simply ignore the whole thing if you are not interested.

  47. Turnbull constantly on ABC repetition saying all Labor candidates are liars and wtte how dare they front up again. The effect is probably to turn people off all pollies.

  48. boomy1

    and I should add that i dont wish death upon anyone, including the disgrace that is Trump. in any case, this whole shit show isnt just about him. There is a huge cast of fellow travellers in this imbroglio.

  49. lizzie

    Turnbull has no moral fibre. none whatsoever. i will never forget his involvement in the Godwin Gretch saga. How he got to become PM is an eternal shame of our body politic

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