The two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research, were very slightly at the high end of the Coalition’s form, causing them to nudge up by 0.3% on the BludgerTrack two-party projection. Other than that, the main news in BludgerTrack is that the seat projections are now running off post-redistribution margins (which you can read all about in the post below), and the state data from Ipsos last week has been mixed in to the state calculations. Compared with last week, the Coalition is up one on the national seat projection, making gains in Victoria and Western Australia and dropping one in Queensland. Leadership numbers from Newspoll have added further emphasis to the upturn in his personal ratings, despite the apparently static picture on voting intention.
Full results through the link below.
Don’t miss my fabulous redistributions and pendulum post. Two days without a comment (sniff).
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/07/21/finalised-redistributions-federal-election-pendulum/
Longman and Braddon are possibilities but Mayo looks very difficult.
Sorry William but Wayne has all our attention at present.
For what it’s worth given he’s a comedian, Bill Maher’s theory is that Trump will leave office when he’s ready and not before. Regardless of elections, Mueller, the constitution etc.
Sorry William, but those eminent international lawyers DTT and Guytaur are keeping us enthralled with Assange redux all over again. And again.
would anybody be willing to stick there neck if you do I will pay you 50 bucks and you have to pay me 50 bucks if I’m right about our great LNP winning the seats of Longman Braddon mayo and go on to win the next election
Confessions, I’ve not been paying enough attention. Where is who campaigning in places with no by-elections?
Not only is Mayo likely gone for all money, but of course, the Liberals did not have the stomach to put anyone up in either of the two Perth seats. What a great effort – not.
At very best of best, 2 out of 5 if all the cards fall for the LNP in Tassie or Queensland.
However, to show that Wayne is not totally stupid, he has some friends in the WA media of who think the same way.
One of his journalist mates in the Sunday Times – Joe Spagnolo – today suggested that had the Libs had the guts to put someone up in Perth say, and even with Labor winning but with a reduced margin, this would have been, somehow, a win for the Liberals.
Years ago Billy Snedden came out with the guff that the Libs had won but they had lost. Julie Bishop did the same when Julia Gillard won and governed for three years.
So there you have the Liberal thought process – something out of Fantasy Land.
Not a good sign or welcome idea – surely?
https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-bannons-plan-to-hijack-europe-for-the-far-right?ref=home
Given that this is a blog and I wouldn’t know you if I bumped into you on the street, although as a cyberbot I doubt that you get out much Wayne, I think the byelection bets should be made in bitcoin.
Can anyone summarise the poll data for Longman? Is there a reliable Federal QLD swing figure?
The daftness of facebook — I advertised a free mattress a couple of days ago, so now I’m being bombarded with ads for second hand mattresses…
At least they seem to have worked out I don’t live in Sydney.
Confessions, thanks for the Malcolm Nance interview.
You guys are so blind that you can’t see the writing on the wall that our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon and Mayo
And that bill shorten as gone for all money and will be dumped by next Sunday by his party
The polls say that
Our great LNP will win Longman 52/48 and Braddon 54/46
Andrew_Earlwood (AnonBlock)
Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 7:15 pm
Comment #810
Given that this is a blog and I wouldn’t know you if I bumped into you on the street, although as a cyberbot I doubt that you get out much Wayne, I think the byelection bets should be made in bitcoin.
I like Wayne. He has persistence and gumption. He’s madder than Mad Jack McMad, the winner of last year’s “Mr. Madman” competition..
Wayne “would anybody be willing to stick there neck if you do I will pay you 50 bucks and you have to pay me 50 bucks if I’m right about our great LNP winning the seats of Longman Braddon mayo and go on to win the next election”
I don’t gamble. I want to keep my money and I don’t want to take yours. So, my 2 cents worth:
– Braddon, Longman: one each to Labor and Liberal
– Mayo: Sharkie by a landslide.
* If the Libs win all three, you have gloating rights.
* If Libs lose all seats, they’ll claim victory if the swing against them is less than 5% and the media will say it’s a test for Bill Shorten
* If the Libs lose all seats and the swing is more than 5% the media and the Liberals will ignore it and move on to the next “test” for Bill Shorten
* If I am right and Labor loses a seat, you get gloating rights and the media will speculate on Labor leadership.
I think I’ve covered most of the bases.
Not a good month to go to Mars
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcMpO4Tn0UE&feature=youtu.be
Wayne @ #814 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 8:00 pm
Wayne? Is that really you? What have you done with Wayne? Are you still there Wayne? Great?
@boolenbach
What I read Bannon is aiming to form a ‘super-group’ of Eurosceptic and Populist parties across Europe, with the aim of this group being a major force in the European Parliament after the elections.
All these parties are a pretty mixed bunch, some such as the Five Star Movement are in the centre. This is not surprising since political spectrum in much of Europe to considerably to the left of Australia. For example; the kind of rhetoric we get from some in the Coalition (such as scrapping subsides from renewable energy) would be considered ‘far-right’ stuff in a country like the Netherlands. Likewise the stuff the Greens are advocating could be considered rather tame to what the European far-left parties are proposing.
@Steve777
Secretly I do hope the Liberals can win both Longman and Braddon. Because Tony Abbott and his cheersquad’s subversion of the government is really impacting in the development of sensible policies (such as on climate change).
Good summary Steve. That’s pretty much how I see things.
Didn’t Mad Jack McMad used to post here?
Michael Pascoe tweets..
‘Hey ELJ (Empty Leather Jacket), guess you haven’t ruled out the possibility AFL brawlers were #africangangs in whiteface?’
Steve777
Our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon mayo and I know they will be the first Government to win two seats from the opposition in 100 years
Longman result will be
53/47
Braddon result will be
54/46
Mayo result will be
56/44
So Steve777
You have to leave this blog if I’m right
What about if we all were good citizens, but we are not. We are all going to die. Even got a video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8BEyPzHsVo
Former Liberal candidate in NSW takes aim at the NSW Liberal Party in right wing organ The Spectator…
James Falk
20 July 2018
7:53 PM
Well done, New South Wales Liberals, well done.
You weren’t content with sentencing the people of NSW to years under the spineless nanny Premiers Boozey O’Forgetful, Twotter Greyhound and Chastity de Stadia.
You weren’t content with foisting Lord Waffle and his wife Rasputina upon the nation.
You weren’t content with soiling the centre-right with the incessant factional bickering between The Moist, The Unctuous and The Unlikeable.
You weren’t content with running from political debate and slowing the Left’s cultural and economic destruction by 20 or 30 minutes.
You weren’t content with reducing government to Michael Photios’ employment agency.
No – you had to do more.
You had to prove what we all knew. That at heart our rulers are exactly the self-serving, careerist status-hounds you told us you weren’t. That you carry not one ounce of integrity, not a semblance of a sense of duty. That you only seek to represent your own interests, not those of your party members, and certainly not those of your electorates.
You had to prove you cannot think beyond tomorrow, and if you could, you wouldn’t care.
Your one true act of goodness is to prove the popular rising across the West is right on absolutely everything.
I don’t know what form The Beast will take. I don’t know who will get to choose its form. It could be a person, or it could be an event. I don’t know when it will be. But The Beast will come.
And NSW Liberals, no one will defend you.
https://www.spectator.com.au/2018/07/the-nsw-liberals-destroy-themselves-along-with-the-nation/
Wayne @ #806 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 5:39 pm
Does your Mum know you’re gambling your pocket money?
A media article from the 2011 NSW election…
‘Throughout Rozelle and Balmain there are small posters promoting Liberal challenger James Falk and Labor’s incumbent Verity Firth. They’re tacked way up telegraph poles on every major thoroughfare – Norton Street, Darling Street, Victoria Road. And where there’s one there’s usually the other, whereas Greens candidate and current Leichhardt Council mayor Jamie Parker has gone high-viz; his mug adorns the backs of telephone boxes, at least four times the size of the major party placards. It’s an insight into which party thinks it will win as much as which party really, really wants to. Parker and his team want this badly and believe it’s within reach. The media and analysts agree and so do the residents who spoke to The Marginal Seat today.’
The Greens ended up winning Balmain
Apparently the Nationals are doing voter recognition polling ahead of the preselection to replace Troy Grant. The one name most peddled … Warren Mundine.
I fucking hate Warren Mundine.
“So Steve777
You have to leave this blog if I’m right”
Peoples’ presence here is independent of the results of by-elections.
@boomy
“I like Wayne. He has persistence and gumption. He’s madder than Mad Jack McMad, the winner of last year’s “Mr. Madman” competition..”
Blackadder! Is that you?
ps. I hate Warren Mundine as well.
I was reading with interest the open letter Robert Reich has today written to the 4 reasonable GOP senators. Then I remembered an earlier open letter he wrote to the wealthy and powerful of the US. I have often argued that egalitarianism is not just a ‘good’ thing but also very much utilitarian, and Reich frames it far better than I….
http://robertreich.org/post/140181226720
William:
In my case, I read it shortly after it was posted but there didn’t really seem to be that much to add to the discussion – it all proceeded pretty much exactly as we’d all expected it to.
sprocket,
Here’s another verbal Molotov Cocktail which James Falk had tossed in 2012 via Twitter : “Sometime in the last 30 years the Green-left morphed into a reactionary force promoting the views of wealthy insiders.”
Andrew_Earlwood @ #840 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 6:37 pm
Is this true?
he’s a dog, he has made the leap from black to white and he likes white. I’m really annoyed by people like this. I just foolishly hope for the time we are all just mates in a bad situation.
“…He’s madder than Mad Jack McMad, the winner of last year’s “Mr. Madman” competition..”
The runner up was a cut snake, followed closely by a meat axe, a hatter and a March hare.
“I read it shortly after it was posted but there didn’t really seem to be that much to add to the discussion – it all proceeded pretty much exactly as we’d all expected it to.”
One thing that is very interesting is that of that notional 74-72 seats plus the current independents pendulum were repeated at the next election we would be seeing a 2010 election redux. Presumably Brandt and Wilkie would support Labor (but maybe not, who knows), leaving the formation of the next government up to the collective decisions of Katter, McGowan and Skarkie.
Prof H
Another accurate comment there by James Falk.
The Greens are the petit bourgeoisie of the modern age.
An interesting question: Would Malcolm accept the PMship under such conditions, or would he up stumps and retire leaving the gig to the Abbottobods to fight out amongst themselves?
“The runner up was a cut snake, followed closely by a meat axe, a hatter and a March hare.”
DTT would be pissed. Especially given her hard (and endlessly long) work on Bludger to get noticed by the judges. Very unfair, IMO.
Having worked with a few of the extended Mundine clan over the years, I can say that they are strong ALP and strong Union people.
I hold no animus towards Warren Mundine, I hope he is not disappointed in the path he has chosen. Perhaps his stint as National President of the ALP had him to close to the flame.
“An interesting question: Would Malcolm accept the PMship under such conditions, or would he up stumps and retire leaving the gig to the Abbottobods to fight out amongst themselves?”
Is the Pope a paedophile protecting catholic vicar?
Of course Truffles would grasp the chalice.
I doubt he would under a hung parliament scenario post a federal election.
I can see him retiring and leaving the mess to Abbott, Abezt and Andrews to clean up with a huge shit-eating grin on his face.
Steve777@8:04pm
I know you are discussing with a cyberbot released from IPA/ Pig Iron bob’s house/ LNP HQ about by-elections but I sincerely hope you are wrong with your prediction that LNP will win 1 by-election seat.
I really hope LNP loses all the 3 seats it is contesting. Howevet, I like your scenario where LNP loses all seats it is contesting by more than 5%.
Wasn’t it that other well known Labor apostate Billy Morris Hughes who had been a member of every major political Party in Federal politics except the Country (former name for National) Party. “I have my standards” he said, or something like that.
Warren has shamed the clan. I still follow him on social media. He’s just another attention seeking opportunist catering to the RWNJ fringe.
Fair enough.
I would like to say that were true for me as well.
I’m sorry, but I don’t forgive easily.
Maybe I should.
Timor-Leste activists ‘shocked’ by Australia’s prosecution of spy Witness K and lawyer
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/22/timor-leste-activists-shocked-by-australias-prosecution-of-spy-witness-k-and-lawyer
So this is what happens when International Court case gets settled to protect war criminal & renowned liar honest John Howard.
2006-2012 were not the high points of the NSW ALP, with Arbib and crew, and the RGR contretemps in Canberra