BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor

More of the same from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the Coalition’s voting intention trend lagging behind Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research, were very slightly at the high end of the Coalition’s form, causing them to nudge up by 0.3% on the BludgerTrack two-party projection. Other than that, the main news in BludgerTrack is that the seat projections are now running off post-redistribution margins (which you can read all about in the post below), and the state data from Ipsos last week has been mixed in to the state calculations. Compared with last week, the Coalition is up one on the national seat projection, making gains in Victoria and Western Australia and dropping one in Queensland. Leadership numbers from Newspoll have added further emphasis to the upturn in his personal ratings, despite the apparently static picture on voting intention.

Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

951 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor”

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  2. Julian Assange: Ecuadorian ‘naturalisation granted’ – video
    The WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was made an Ecuadorian citizen last month, the nation’s foreign ministry has revealed, in an attempt to resolve the political impasse over his continued presence in the UK.

    The 46-year-old has been naturalised after living for five and a half years in the cramped, Latin American country’s embassy in Knightsbridge, central London.

  4. Sorry guys but you all know that our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon and Mayo and they will also go on to win the next election and Malcolm Turnbull will be the best leader we have had since John Howard

  6. Wayne @ #742 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 5:16 pm

    ALP will lose Braddon Longman to our great LNP

    Malcolm Turnbull job will be safe till he decides to retire from politics…

    BIll Shorten will be dumped as ALP Leader and will choose Albo to lead them to the next election and which he will go on to lose by a landslide

    Go Wayne!

  7. Why was Turnbull in the NT? He can pretend all he likes that an election is still 12 months away, but all the signs point to the govt gearing up to go to the polls before the end of this year.

  9. Greensborough Growler @ #673 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 3:15 pm

    Interesting piece on what is about to happen to Assange.

    https://theintercept.com/2018/07/21/ecuador-will-imminently-withdraw-asylum-for-julian-assange-and-hand-him-over-to-the-uk-what-comes-next/

    Thanks. So if the US get their hands on him, as seems increasingly likely, he will be charged with fucking around with classified material, come on down Wopo and NYT, with the media et al as collateral damage, to be challenged in the courts, an ant’s nest something the previous admin was loath to poke. Not so Trumpy and co, for whom a chance to muzzle the press would be glorious indeed, with a Supreme Court under the wing.

  16. The government’s rationale is that work rights have been restored to almost all asylum-seekers on bridging visas, and many of those who have been receiving SRSS payments are “job-ready” and obliged to work.

    But Cabrini and other refugee support agencies say their patients often have complex, chronic mental health issues and have been deskilled during years spent in limbo.

    “Being ‘job ready’ is not the same thing as having the skills to be able to find employment,” says the hub’s manager Tracey Cabrie. “Being given access to work does not mean someone is work ready: they might not have language, and they may be living in destitution or homeless. They’re being set up to fail.”

    Although the cuts are a fortnight away, staff at the hub have already noticed a marked increase in demand for their services from asylum seekers who are highly anxious. Wait times for psychiatric appointments at the hub have gone from weeks to months, hence the call for pro bono help.
    Since it opened in 2016, the hub has seen more than 420 patients, and treats about 280 on an ongoing basis. They have significant health needs around issues like chronic pain and homelessness.

    Dr Nguyen estimates that over 50 per cent have severe mental health disorders which mean they aren’t capable of working.

    Two-thirds of the patients, including those waiting for the outcome of appeals in the Federal Court, have no income. And more than half do not have medicare access. They rely entirely on food donations from local services.

    And so they wait, and wait. And – because humans are wired to need some certainty – their mental health disintegrates, says Ms Cabrie.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/call-for-doctors-to-help-looming-asylum-seeker-mental-health-crisis-20180721-p4zst8.html

  17. Love watching the Tour de France but if ever there was a need for electric fences, their crowd control manager would be justified in using same.

  18. Quasar @ #767 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 6:21 pm

    Love watching the Tour de France but if ever there was a need for electric fences, their crowd control manager would be justified in using same.

    Yes, but you have to agree that a Tour that was all trussed up with security, wouldn’t be a real Tour de France. 🙂

  19. Trumble’s visit to the NT was reported with breathless excitement by the ABC propaganda unit as lead item on their 6.00am news, as the first PM to visit since the rape of a toddler. Did I imagine that?

    Complete with the great man speaking in the local Aboriginal language, and promising to listen and learn.

    Why is this news, let alone first item on the news?
    Nothing new was announced, nothing revealed except Trumble’s benign magnificence.

  20. Frydenberg has stated that pensions go up twice a year every year.
    Frydenberg conveniently fails to tell you that any increase in pensions is at a rate designed to make the pension become worthless as the increase is not enough to maintain the cost of living.
    I believe this deception was the highlight of the Abbott/Hockey first budget and set the tone for the take from the poor and give to the rich Abbott/Turnbull government. It fits nicely with the last term of the Howard government with the introduction of work choices legislation.

  22. So Truffles went to Tennant Creek just to take a selfie.

    maybe he did. All I know is that it’s all wrong up there. Black people are shit and white people confirm this to your face,
    I don’t know how this stupid can be beaten.

  23. This has probably been posted before. However I think its more worthy of a look than Julian Assange.

    I like the super pollination highway project on this road. I also like turning those dead reflecting bits of metal into sensors for weather conditions and traffic warning systems.

    http://theray.org

  24. Our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon mayo and they will be up by three seats and the alp will be unhappy that they lose Braddon Longman to our great LNP and bill shorten will be dumped as leader

  30. “Love watching the Tour de France but if ever there was a need for electric fences, their crowd control manager would be justified in using same.”

    If I’m up late I like to have it on for the beautiful European landscapes, forests, lush farmlands and villages, and especially the Alps and Pyrenees. I don’t know who’s riding and don’t care who wins. It’s just background while I’m looking at and commenting on PB and other news sites, catching up with the News, checking emails, etc.

    Yes, they’ve really got to keep some of those idiot spectators out of the way.

  32. Wayne, please don’t let your detractors on this blog stop you. Keep it up. Please. Your mirror is profound and subtle, and great. Love your work.

  33. On the Tour de France spectators I am amazed one of the motorcycles or support vehicles has not killed anyone yet.

  34. “operates independently from the government”

    “We are not operators of the business”

    So, in Australia today, exactly who is responsible?

    Who benefits?

    And who pays?

  35. Wayne I admire your courage and consistency but may I suggest you expand your messages to at least two. That way you will ensure PMMT remains our leader beyond the next election.

  36. ALP are facing a big defeat in the seats of Longman Braddon and centre alliance are facing a big defeat in the seat of mayo which our great LNP will win and also go on to win the next election and ALP will lose up to 25 seats to our great LNP……..

  40. If I’m wrong about the by elections I will leave this blog for good what do you say to that guys and if I’m right about the by elections you all have to leave this blog

  44. If I’m wrong about the by elections I will leave this blog for good what do you say to that guys and if I’m right about the by elections you all have to leave this blog

    Quote
    I’m fucking gone Cisco!
    Lol, it’s like the time when you want to die and someone else tells you you cant.

  46. There is a lens that sort of makes sense as a distorted view into rooted fear of anti-ALP group-think. If only my language skills were better, but something like shouting in a cemetery, daring the worst, then reverse the challenge. (Love your work Wayne.)

    EDIT: @Wayne

  47. I don’t know who will win the by-elections.
    – Recent history has shown single seat polling to be mostly rubbish.
    – The One Nation vote and preferences in Longman are a big unknown. Past performance isn’t really a guide
    – We have the impact of ‘Medalgate’. Probably won’t change many votes, but in a close election you don’t have to. If it were a Labor candidate it would be going all week. As it is, it seems to have quietened down.
    – On balance, my gut feel is that Braddon and Longman are very close, could go either way. Neither side seems overly confident.
    – Mayo seems to be gone for all money as far as the Liberals are concerned.

    We shall see.

  49. I think Trump has a plan
    But it’s this statistic that’s most shocking in the Post poll of Republicans. “52 percent said that they would support postponing the 2020 election, and 56 percent said they would do so if both Trump and Republicans in Congress proposed this,” according to the Post.
    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/much-worse-can-trump-get/

    Looks like he will be around for some time yet, just has to get Mueller out of the way – a new Supreme Court appointment should fix that.

  50. You all finally admit that our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon and Mayo and go on to win the next election by a landslide

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