BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor

More of the same from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the Coalition’s voting intention trend lagging behind Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research, were very slightly at the high end of the Coalition’s form, causing them to nudge up by 0.3% on the BludgerTrack two-party projection. Other than that, the main news in BludgerTrack is that the seat projections are now running off post-redistribution margins (which you can read all about in the post below), and the state data from Ipsos last week has been mixed in to the state calculations. Compared with last week, the Coalition is up one on the national seat projection, making gains in Victoria and Western Australia and dropping one in Queensland. Leadership numbers from Newspoll have added further emphasis to the upturn in his personal ratings, despite the apparently static picture on voting intention.

Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

951 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 20
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  2. He has already served 6 under house arrest.

    Entirely his choice to do so. Nobody forced Assange to hole up in the embassy.

    Really, the hysteria and fevered imaginings being trotted out here are just incredible.

  4. “WWP

    Well we may be about to find out.

    If he does end up in the US and charged with a serious crime of espionage i do hope you will reconsider that point.”

    No I won’t. 40 – life in a US prison seems a fair outcome for our Julian. We will never know whether the US would have got him for the first round of espionage if he had gone to Sweden. We will never know if the Swedes would have convicted and sentenced him and packed him of home to Australia. We may still learn that Australia is quite happy to pack him of to the US, if the UK don’t do it first.

    The second round, the whole working with Russia against the US wasn’t Julian’s brightest move. But then again just think if he had managed to get accused of sexual offences in Sweden in the first place.

  6. If there is one person on the face of Planet Earth regarding whom it is not worth wasting a moment’s thought or a microampere of neuronal signal strength, it would have to be Julian Assange.

  7. Confessions

    Those trying to say the legal case was not botched are the hysterics. It obviously was.
    As I have said repeatedly . If the Swedes had gone to the UK police station and interviewed him there caught him out with the lie then Ecuador would not have granted asylum.

    Assange would have had his day in court.

    :Thats where the botch happened

    Edit: Assuming there is case that can be brought to court

  8. DTT

    Your opuses would be more understandable in terms of argument if they were written in Latin.

    Seriously, I no longer read most of them because your arguments appear to be aimed at creating confusion … logic rarely enters into it.

    Instead of treating people here like they are students and you are a professor … try answering a question as posed rather than launching into some ideological treatise on a side issue that merely muddies the water.

    I don’t even know why I respond at all except occasionally you say things that I quite agree with or give me food for thought. But on the whole they are circular arguments that are not fixed in the present but all over the place.

  9. Lovey,
    Dearheart.
    Donald Trump lavished praise on the anti-secrecy website during the presidential election campaign – “I love WikiLeaks,” he once told a rally – but his administration has struck a different tone.

    Trump is a Dog. Those who have been prisoners know what that means.
    He will go in due course and history will judge.
    I loathe and detest him but I am still powerless. Posting on a blog confirms this.

  10. Yep. In a nutshell

    Louise Mensch Retweeted
    Vladimir Kara-Murza
    Vladimir Kara-Murza
    @vkaramurza
    ·
    7h
    Vladimir Putin has left no doubt: The biggest threat to his regime is the Magnitsky Act, which stops its beneficiaries from doing what has long become their raison d’être — stealing in Russia and spending in the West.

  12. FMD!!

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    ·
    4m
    Oh my God
    CNBC
    @CNBC
    Trump says stock market gains since election give him opportunity to wage a trade war: ‘We’re playing with the bank’s money’ (link: https://cnb.cx/2uCSocX) cnb.cx/2uCSocX

  13. meher baba @ #609 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 1:17 pm

    guytaur: “The Swedes botched it and did not gather the evidence required. It was not just Assange with ego problems.”

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but my recollection was that Assange was about to be forced to go to Sweden under a UK court ruling when he sought refuge in the Ecuadoran embassy.

    So how exactly did the Swedes botch the job? If anything, I would suggest that the UK botched its job.

    Meher

    I think the real test is to see what would have happened to two different types of Australian who were accused of identical crimes. That is the REAL trst of integrity and competence and the extent or otherwise of political playing and complicity.

    Now if Assage was John Anderson of Australia who had slept with a couple of women who got angry and went to the prosecutor what would have been the Swedish procedure. OK they interview John. This they did for Assange too. Presumably because the crimes were of a minor nature they would have let John go (as they did for Julian).They may have taken some action to follow up over time but it would probably not have been highest priority.

    So John lands in the UK with a prosecutors warrant after him. What would the Swedish prosecutor have done. In all probability they would have ignored the matter completely but put a note on John’s file such that if he returned to Sweden he would need to to be interviewed by the Prosecutor again and either charged or not. If however he stayed in the UK or returned to Australia is probable that they would have done nothing. if say john was of a paranoid disposition and made a bit of a fuss, the Swedish government would have no doubt arranged to send someone over to the UK to sort the matter out. Interview him and either charge him or not. Given the nature of the offences and the fact that they would NOT be crimes in the UK or in his home country, chances are that they would have let the matter drop (even if they were sue he was guilty). Perhaps they could negotiate an apology and a promise never to return to Sweden. It would just NOT have been cost effective to have the matter drag on especially if they thought John was a bit of a paranoid poser.

    Now let us perhaps consider what they might have done if John was really a minor celebrity – a pop star or sports star. In this case the publicity attracted by John MIGHT mean that the Swedish government could not just ignore the matter or negotiate some simple private settlement. In this case i have no doubt at all that the swedish prosecutor would have made a high profile visit to the UK cameras abalze. She would have interviewed Johnny and made a determination idf the charges would stick in Sweden. She would (probably in discussion with her court colleages/bosses and presumably also the Swedish diplomats) have decided either to proceed with a high profile extradition to Sweden or perhaps again seek and a very generous donation to charity that did not involve admitting guilt but basically allowed the matter to close. I do not think the Swedish government would have enlisted the UK government to drag the offender off to jail or to have mounted an expensive man hunt etc. certainly after the matter dragged on for a few months there would have been pressure from all parties to resolve the matter in the most face saving cost effective manner possible.

    The fact that Sweden did not of these things makes it pretty clear that the was a political agenda.

  17. DareToRead
    Often I see you as an abbreviation some other thing. Mostly though I think you are just nutso with a sometimes pleasant frown. If all the shit you go on with is true we could not even have this conversation on the thingy?web/

  18. Victoria @ #661 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 2:33 pm

    GG

    For real? I am surprised. That is a first from Matthew Guy.

    They’ll try to do it on the cheap if they win the election. I reckon for Andrews the connection to the Airport is just the steak knives. The Regional hub linking the bush to the system is the most important aspect of this announcement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/22/melbourne-airport-rail-link-daniel-andrews-matches-turnbulls-5bn

  19. GG

    The hub and link to the Airport is long overdue. I would much rather team Labor win election and proceed with project rather than Guy and Co.

  20. Just heard on ABC radio that Trumbull has said Labor should be doing better in the opinion polls leading up to the by elections.

    So is he conceding that his government’s performance is so bad that Labor should be beating them by a country mile?

    At least it solves one puzzle – Rex and Trumbull are one and the same!

  21. jenauthor @ #656 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 2:28 pm

    DTT

    Your opuses would be more understandable in terms of argument if they were written in Latin.

    Seriously, I no longer read most of them because your arguments appear to be aimed at creating confusion … logic rarely enters into it.

    Instead of treating people here like they are students and you are a professor … try answering a question as posed rather than launching into some ideological treatise on a side issue that merely muddies the water.

    I don’t even know why I respond at all except occasionally you say things that I quite agree with or give me food for thought. But on the whole they are circular arguments that are not fixed in the present but all over the place.

    Jen

    By all means accuse me of being verbose. i plead guilty.

    However I am to my own detriment a very, very analytical person. Life would be easier if I were not but I am.

    You may not follow my analysis but I could present you with 100 essays etc where I always get an A or A+with comments especially for my analysis.

    So I feel pretty confident that verbose I may be (certainly am) but illogical NEVER. I just cannot allow myself to be. I am long winded and discursive because that is what logic demands.

    You and I assume may others here would agree with a grin to one comment I got form an ANU lecturer who went on to be a Professor at Cambridge (so not exactly an intellectual slouch). His comment was “I WOULD have given you an A+ if you had not misspelt every “xxese” name” Sadly I had to accept the justice of his comment.

    So I am quite genuinely gratified that I sometimes give you food for thought. That is pleasing.

    Pick me up fro spelling and grammar (when I am lazy). I cannot object. Argue with me for my reasoning. I am happy to accept that.

    But please do not claim I am illogical etc because that only means that you have not bothered to read the post in full or follow the logic.

    I am rigidly analytical. Pompous probably. But never, never illogical (or at least if I ever am and I can let emotion rule sometimes) I will acknowledge it.

    If I seem like I am talking down to people, just consider that that is AFTER I have been accused of all sorts of things including being mad, or a troll or a hundred other things. If people are polite to me then I will return the favour, bit if you stat out but calling me mad or illogical or ignorant etc then obviously I am going to return fire with fire.

    Now if I sound patronising and lecturing is it perhaps not possible that I get fed up with people on here spouting the usual group think stuff without actually bothering to read outside the box. When anyone here shows evidence of reading or thinking outside the run of the mill I am very pleased. Now Poroti and others here often post stuff that is very good (I often have already read it). He/she is much more polite that I am but I am not sure that anyone on here ever reads his/her stuff.

    Since I only bother to post here in the hope that people will think a little outside the MSN box to consider issues I regard as really really important (usually peace and war) I am sometimes controversial. at least that way people MIGHT take a moment or two to think a bit more broadly.

  22. boomy1 @ #665 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 2:49 pm

    DareToRead
    Often I see you as an abbreviation some other thing. Mostly though I think you are just nutso with a sometimes pleasant frown. If all the shit you go on with is true we could not even have this conversation on the thingy?web/

    well Boomyi

    I think you usually are a ho hum bore who posts the obvious.

    Now as for logic. What the hell do you mean by it. Please explain to this highly confused nit job.

  25. Victoria says:

    Sunday, July 22, 2018 at 2:54 pm

    *************************************************************

    Hi Victoria – not sure if you have caught up with all todays news – but our old ‘friend’ Carter Page has bobbed up again with the release of the first ever public 412 page FISA warrant – it is so heavily redacted its impossible to evaluate fully.

    Again, Page is either the dumbest – or the smartest – man in the US – I don’t understand why he is not is jail right now – but maybe he is wandering around with a wire recording stuff for Mueller ….

  26. The relevant part

    According to Swedish legislation, a criminal investigation is to be conducted as quickly as possible. At the point when a prosecutor has exhausted the possibilities to continue the investigation, the prosecutor is obliged to discontinue the investigation.

    – At this point, all possibilities to conduct the investigation are exhausted. In order to proceed with the case, Julian Assange would have to be formally notified of the criminal suspicions against him. We cannot expect to receive assistance from Ecuador regarding this. Therefore the investigation is discontinued.

    – If he, at a later date, makes himself available, I will be able to decide to resume the investigation immediately, says Marianne Ny.

  27. GG:

    Glenn Greenwald is a pro-Putin Assangelist who is routinely mocked on social media for his weird conspiracy theories to explain why he believes the Russians hacking the 2016 election didn’t actually happen.

    I would taken any assessment of Assange’s predicaments (real or imagined) by him with a large grain of salt.

  29. Oakshott

    Could not th prosecutor get on aplane and visit him.

    Surely that is the obvius thing to do.

    In any case one of the two charges collapsed because the statute of limitations time passed. I think with the other that time may e getting close too.

    Sorry that just does not wash.

    The case is a costly embarrassing mess.

    I think the swedish governent could have pad the plane fare for the prosecutor to vist the UK.

  32. DTT – shall we have duelling essays? Shall I show you my tertiary qualifications to see if they match yours?

    FMD!

    As someone who spends their life writing and editing narrative … I can assure you, while you might think your own arguments are logical … most of the time they do not come across that way.

    It could be that you know what you mean but you leave out important linking ideas … or, in an attempt to be ‘discursive’, you include too much that diverts attention from the primary thrust of your argument — either way they are confusing a lot of the time.

    Try shorter posts where you can concentrate on a single idea at a time???

    And I hate to say it – some of your more outlandish ideas border on the paranoid.

  33. Shorten_Suite
    ‏@Shorten_Suite
    A vote for Big Trev is a vote for a Big Tax cut for the Big Banks
    😀
    You know it!

  35. jenauthor,
    Surely you have heard the saying, ‘it’s like banging your head against a brick wall’? And, ‘a little knowledge is a dangerous thing’?

    That’s dtt.

  37. PhoenixRed

    Yes I did see the release of the Carter Page fisa warrant.
    Out of all the players, this one continues to confuse me. He behaves so cray Cray, that the only thing that makes sense is that he is a double agent.
    Remember team patriot reported from the get go that Page went to Moscow with actual recording of Trump making a deal. On twitter today, reiterated that this recording exists.
    Whatever the case surely Trump knows what they have on him. But then again, Trump creates his own reality on a daily basis

  38. DTT
    You are saying that the Ecuadorians would permit the prosecutor to visit him in the embassy and if they then concluded that their is a prima facie case Assange would say “it’s a fair cop, i’ll come back to Sweden with you”

    The point is that Assange’s case went up and down the English legal system with Assange represented by the most pompous barristers pro bono could buy and the courts decided extradition was appropriate.

  41. poroti:

    That’s too bad for Mr Pentagon Papers. Some of Greenwald’s assertions are truly off he planet, in the DTT realm of deluded!

    But, whatever floats your boat I guess. 😆

  42. Victoria says: Sunday, July 22, 2018 at 3:50 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Yes I did see the release of the Carter Page fisa warrant.
    Out of all the players, this one continues to confuse me. He behaves so cray Cray, that the only thing that makes sense is that he is a double agent.

    *****************************************************

    Me too – I mean he is not dumb in the academic sense – he served as an intelligence offer in the US Navy and has a PHD …… but whenever I see him he always has this smirky stupid look that throws me. I suspect like you he could well be a double agent or a mole in the Trump organisation …

    Maybe Page, Cohen and Manafort will fill in the vital pieces in the coming weeks …..

  43. Jenauthor @2:28
    “DTT

    Your opuses would be more understandable in terms of argument if they were written in Latin.”
    Might I suggest your sentence could read “Your opera would be more readable if they were set to music”?
    Occasionally on skimming through comments i find a particularly idiosyncratic comment. I sigh and say “that sounds like DTT”, & it usually is. I just skim on by.

  46. Assange

    Its simpler to look at the last few years.. It would appear that Julian has become bitter & twisted by the experience he brought on himself.
    Resulting in his white anting Hillary.
    He will finish up in a US gaol unless Trump pardons hime for being a useful idiot for the Russians.. He may even share a cell with Donald Jr.

    If he were innocent he would have left the embassy as soon as Sweden dropped the charges.

  47. Victoria and Confessions (and Zoomster)

    I don’t know what Greenwald has said previously but what in that particular article do you disagree with?

    Are you denying that the USA want him, and thus he had no need to worry about that?

  48. PhoenixRed

    We should know soon enough. I often think of the movie The usual suspects character played by Kevin Spacey when I try to come to a conclusion re Carter Page.
    Cray cray I know

  49. Maybe you all fruitloops should consider that if ‘one gets jail – all whistleblowsers get jail’ because you fruitloops allow whatever national security laws get into power.

    Lenore Taylor
    ‏Verified account @lenoretaylor
    13m13 minutes ago

    Timor-Leste activists ‘shocked’ by Australia’s prosecution of spy Witness K and lawyer

  50. Channel 10, under new owners CBS, are having a trial week where they try some shows to see how they go. Here is all the show presenters. 2 observations:

    1. Diversity not a KPI with a congaline of men presenters
    2. Sam Dastayari has his platform to serve some cold revenge, and balance perhaps the SkyFoxNews RWNJ parade

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