The two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research, were very slightly at the high end of the Coalition’s form, causing them to nudge up by 0.3% on the BludgerTrack two-party projection. Other than that, the main news in BludgerTrack is that the seat projections are now running off post-redistribution margins (which you can read all about in the post below), and the state data from Ipsos last week has been mixed in to the state calculations. Compared with last week, the Coalition is up one on the national seat projection, making gains in Victoria and Western Australia and dropping one in Queensland. Leadership numbers from Newspoll have added further emphasis to the upturn in his personal ratings, despite the apparently static picture on voting intention.
Full results through the link below.
Mundine lives in the seat of Willoughby with stepchildren.
Would be surprising if he wants to be a country boy suddenly.
I doubt we have had a secret prosecution in Oz for decades. How will the case against Witness K and Collaery run?
“Would be surprising if he wants to be a country boy suddenly”
He would do anything to be a MP.
With Billy Hughes, I recall it went –
“You have to draw the line somewhere Brother, you have to draw the line somewhere”.
How would we know?
There is a report in Newscorp papers that another Braddon Poll has it 50-50. Still think the amount of Green and Indp preferences should get Labor across the line in this one.
From Denholm in the Oz:
‘Leaked polling shows a collapse in personal support for Labor’s Justine Keay in the Braddon by-election, but polls suggest she should win on preferences, prompting a Liberal blitz against minor candidates.
Liberal-commissioned track polling obtained by The Australian shows Ms Keay’s “net favourability” rating has dived from plus-5 early this month to minus-11.5 last week. Only 26.34 per cent of the northwest Tasmanian electorate have a positive view of the former MP, while 37.91 per cent have a negative view.
The revelation of the internal research comes as a poll in Newscorp newspapers today has Labor and Liberals neck-and-neck at 50% each on a two-party-preferred basis.
The track polling suggests Liberal advertising — accusing Ms Keay of clinging to office as a well-paid MP months after she should have quit over a dual citizenship — has damaged her standing.
“Justine Keay has gone from being a benefit to the Labor vote to a drag on it, because she refused to resign and insisted on continuing to collect her taxpayer-funded pay cheque,” a Liberal source said.
Ms Keay insists she resigned at the appropriate time, in response to a clarifying High Court ruling. However, recent internal polling for both major parties, and by ReachTEL for a forest industry group, point to Ms Keay being well behind Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley on the primary vote. Thursday’s ReachTEL polling, released at the weekend, has Ms Keay on 34.3 per cent of the primary vote to Mr Whiteley’s 40.7 per cent. Ms Keay’s vote is well down on her 2016 federal election result, in which she topped 40 per cent of the primary vote.
However, all the most recent polling points to Ms Keay having a good chance of winning on preferences, chiefly from independent candidate Craig Garland and the Greens. With that in mind, Liberal strategists told The Australian their campaign up until Saturday’s vote would focus on persuading voters to drop independents and minor party candidates. The party has begun distributing “scratchie” cards to push its point, while Mr Whiteley yesterday warned voters Ms Keay would be elected if they voted for anyone other than him.’
For what it’s worth, given this is a Murdoch article quoting Liberal strategic “leaks”.
Quoting percentages to two decimal places sounds a bit dodgy.
This time next week Longman Braddon and Mayo will be hold by our great LNP and ALP will suffer the biggest by election defeats in living history
Andrew_Earlwood @ #658 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 8:56 pm
Andrew
Did those four beat dead Bore, Snake in the Grass, Drovers Dog and you?
Jesus (if you’re there), isn’t it a bit late to be quoting poll numbers that may or may not be real, about “collapses in support” that may or may not have happened?
What effing difference does it make at this stage?
Not to put too fine a point on it,but surely by now it is what it is?
Wayne @ #676 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 9:44 pm
Wayne
I thought you were funny for a while but this is getting tedious. Come on mate join the throng and abuse me. Then at least you can have some company occasionally.
Our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon mayo and ALP will never be in government again
Shellbell @ #669 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 9:19 pm
Shell
What does the legal fraternity plan to do about it. Thin edge of the wedge and all that.
Yes I know the answer is nix.
Most law firms should be called Craven and Craven.
That applies to you to Andrew.
Kevin Bonham quoted in The Advocate (Fairfax paper circulating in Braddon) as cautiously favouring Labor to win.
https://www.theadvocate.com.au/sport/local-sport/5539919/labor-in-box-seat-for-braddon-byelection-pollster-says/
There is a report in Newscorp papers that another Braddon Poll has it 50-50. Still think the amount of Green and Indp preferences should get Labor across the line in this one.
When you wake up. Vote Labor.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #853 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 9:20 pm
Which is why Labor never chose him to be. They knew that. So I was told.
My earlier comment about the cut snake and other entrants in a mythical contest was me going off on a whimsical tangent from another post. It was not directed at anyone here.
That leaked internal Liberal tracking polling is meant to create the impression that Justine Keay is already a loser, so why vote for her next weekend, you know? That sort of thing.
Wayne @ #863 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 9:54 pm
I didn’t know that PB had become a Long Day Care child minding centre.
The Daily DTT
“What does the legal fraternity plan to do about it. Thin edge of the wedge and all that.
Yes I know the answer is nix.
Most law firms should be called Craven and Craven.
That applies to you to Andrew.”
Our Trade Unions, the various Bar Associations, Law Societies and the Law Council of Australia are very strong on this issue, making representations and lobbying governments of all persuasions over the excesses of executive governments.
On a personal note, I’m working hard to bring down two crypto-fascist governments in NSW and Federally as a Local branch member and as an activist.
What would you have us lawyers do DTT? Trade our wigs for Assault Rifles?
Steve777 @ #684 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 10:00 pm
I realise that steve
No worries.
But Andrew is you classic sand in the face bully.
He never lets an opportunity pass him by.
I know I am naughty but i do chuck a bit of sand back.
Dutton is a real sleazebag for trying to make political capital out of the death of the teenage girl in Melbourne. Guy also.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/sudanese-gangs-a-major-law-and-order-problem-says-dutton-20180722-p4zsyb.html
@GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of #Longman 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 LNP 51 #auspol
Confirms my impression that Longman will go down the wire. Not surprising if Wyatt Roy and somebody else was the LNP member for Longman they would have retained the seat in 2016.
“Which is why Labor never chose him to be. They knew that. So I was told.”
Didn’t he get a winnable 3rd spot on a senate ticket back in the early 2000s?
He only quit the alp after Gillard insisted that the NSW Branch select Bob Carr to replace Arbib back in 2012 instead of him. At the time he claimed the LNP were more progressive on aboriginal jobs and in selecting indigenous candidates. Must have been a real ‘Road to Damascus” moment – willing to say “yep, I’m a true Labor man through and through” one moment before the epiphany hit the next moment, coincidently after he got passed over for Bob. Amazeballs.
He married Gerald Henderson’s daughter the next year, campaigned for Abbott and was appointed to Abbott’s pet indigenous advisory board as chairman the same year.
Steve777 @ #868 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 9:30 pm
O fucking bullshit. You meant it with bells on. You hate all of us because we are just things.Some of us will live and die type scenario. I will not fall. I will not fall
Andrew_Earlwood @ #687 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 10:06 pm
OK Andrew
Fair comment
I apologise.
I suppose I was hoping that you would say that the Bar association was strong on the issue as well as the Law associations. Not sure the unions will have much influence with this mob.
Now as to the wigs and riffles – if they are very old and smelly I guess your could use them as weapons?
Mind you a word of caution. Labor governments have not in recent years been worth much in terms of protecting free speech. You probably should do a tad more than just ALP politics.
But it will I think HAVE to come via the legal fraternity. we mere mortals will have buckleys of effecting any change.
Re Citizen @2:09PM: Peter Dutton is a disgusting piece of racist, fascist slime.
Didn’t he get a winnable 3rd spot on a senate ticket back in the early 2000s?
Wasn’t that when Labor weren’t winning 3 Senate seats due to the clusterstuffups of the State Labor government?
Anyway, I remember what I was told and that was that National President was as good as it was going to get for Warren.
Steve777 @ #878 Sunday, July 22nd, 2018 – 10:18 pm
Of course he is. That’s how he has gotten as far as he has in Liberal Party politics.
And speaking about disgusting pieces of political pond scum, Barnaby Joyce has just been interviewed on Sky by Adam Giles and said that he wants to one day again be Deputy Prime Minister. You know, like it’s some sort of feather he wants to put back in his cap, as if he deserves it. For doing what, exactly, I don’t know. Being full of himself?
If the LNP was smart their campaigns in the by-elections would include the slogan “If you want Shorten replaced as leader of the Labor party, put Labor last”. If the ALP doesn’t get a swing to it, the media is going to call it a defeat – even if it holds all seats – and shorten will face a challenge. If labor doesn’t get a swing to it, I reckon Turnbull might be heading to Yarralumba for chat with the GG pretty quickly after super saturday.
the unfair to shorten, but I think it is the reality of how the media dislike him and how he doesn’t come over well much of the time.
the one about billy hughes came about at frtendly party with a few beers of members who wer estill around who ha served in the old house before the new one was built, people who coul still be friendly away from sittings where they argued all the time, a queenslander after they had a few beers & talked about days gone by said to billy you are the googly bowler in this place but after all the other positions you held you never joined the country party, rejoinder…good god man you have to draw the line somewhere. much laughter & more beer. I could not imagine that happening now with this mob where fight is right & putt the opposition down at all costs.
@citizen
For Guy, I believe it is an attempt to ensure people don’t suddenly remember his record as the planning minister in the previous state Coalition government. Plus allegations that have been made of him being linked with organised crime figures as well.
Currently three “Kill Bill” articles tonight in Murdoch’s CM. Heavily promoting Albanese if Labor fails to win Longman.
Murdoch’s Oz is also in “Kill Bill” mode.
Look, Labor will lose Braddon and Longman.
It was bleeding obvious to anyone with a nose for politics weeks ago.
Get over it.
@mundo
The Liberals I predict would highly likely win both Longman and Braddon if they had picked great candidates. However their choices, including a previously defeated State and Federal MP in Braddon might very well have blew away that chance.
@citizen
I am wondering what would News Limited gain, if Anthony Albanese replaces Bill Shorten as Labor leader?
mundo,
Give it up. We all know you’re a concern troll.
“Tristo”
@citizen
I am wondering what would News Limited gain, if Anthony Albanese replaces Bill Shorten as Labor leader?”
Murdoch would claim that, yet again, he has the power to influence who governs a country. Of course, he would then immediately ferociously attack Albanese.
I am wondering what would News Limited gain, if Anthony Albanese replaces Bill Shorten as Labor leader?
disarray. they would home enough disarray for turnbull to call an election and get over the time. I don’t think albo is electable as PM against Turnbull – shorten will beat turnbull given the chance. albo won’t. If labor were smart, they’d go to Plibersek.
Anthony Albanese will be the next ALP leader after our great LNP win the seats of Longman Braddon from the ALP and can’t see him winning any election which will see ALP in opposition till 2028
Galaxy has the ON primary at 18%. If that is anywhere near correct the result can’t be predicted. The preferences could go anywhere.
Looks like new IPSOS poll, seems like 52-48 ALP but can’t be sure.
News is not promoting Albanese as a savior of the labor party. They are just sowing division and panderning to malcontents.
They will have a file full of dirt stories ready to run if Albo were ever to become leader.
From Ghost Who Votes, Longman polls by ReachTel and Galaxy differ a bit. For Galaxy especially, a 51-49 2PP to LNP relies heavily on how the ON vote is assumed to split.
@GhostWhoVotes
47m47 minutes ago
More
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of #Longman Primary Votes: ALP 37 LNP 34 ON 18 #auspol
@GhostWhoVotes
14h14 hours ago
#ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of #Longman Primary Votes: ALP 35.8 (-3.2) LNP 37.9 (+2.4) ON 13.9 (-0.8) GRN 4.2 (+0.9) Other 2.2 IND 2.1 Undecided 3.9 #auspol
Toby Esterhase
Yes okay Toby if that makes you feel better.
Get back to me Monday week and tell me how concerned YOU are.
Toby is a wally troll.
BK will be pleased.
@GhostWhoVotes
29m29 minutes ago
More
#Galaxy Poll Federal Seat of #Mayo 2 Party Preferred: Sharkie CA 59 LIB 41 #auspol
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
Following Following @GhostWhoVotes
More
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (+2) ALP 51 (-2) #auspol
@Gorks
If that is the Iposos, then GhostWhoVotes has reported the two party preferred vote.
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (+2) ALP 51 (-2) #auspol
If the trend of a narrowing in the gap between Labor and the Coalition continues until election day, then the Coalition has a good chance of achieving a narrow victory.
“News is not promoting Albanese as a savior of the labor party. They are just sowing division and panderning to malcontents”
It is not just News, Fairfax and the Guardian have the same get Mal elected agenda.