BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor

More of the same from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the Coalition’s voting intention trend lagging behind Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research, were very slightly at the high end of the Coalition’s form, causing them to nudge up by 0.3% on the BludgerTrack two-party projection. Other than that, the main news in BludgerTrack is that the seat projections are now running off post-redistribution margins (which you can read all about in the post below), and the state data from Ipsos last week has been mixed in to the state calculations. Compared with last week, the Coalition is up one on the national seat projection, making gains in Victoria and Western Australia and dropping one in Queensland. Leadership numbers from Newspoll have added further emphasis to the upturn in his personal ratings, despite the apparently static picture on voting intention.

Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

951 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor”

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  1. @Sohar

    Wow that is pretty impressive array of media outlets supporting Malcolm Turnbull. If the Coalition loses the election (50/50 proposition in my view at the moment), it won’t due to the local of support from the media that’s for sure.

  2. It is true there is tightening in the polls by about 1-2 points. It may come down to the campaign. However, these trends can and do change. The government seems to do well when parliament is not sitting and nothing much is happening. If I was Labor I would be getting the campaign infrastructure ready to go.

  3. If I were to be honest: Saturday will be the litmus test. If Labor underperforms, then they have a problem.

  4. Starting to think Shorten is being a drag on Labor. He has lost a heap of ground against Turnbull in the PPM polling. Having said that changing leaders would be dumb.

  5. @Gorks

    That is a good point you have raised, that the parliament has not been sitting for a while. In the back of mind since early this year, I had a sneaking feeling in the back of my mind the Coalition would be re-elected at the forthcoming federal election.


    Preferred Prime Minister ratings are generally irrelevant, look at Tony Abbott’s ratings versus Kevin Rudd’s (2nd time as Prime Minister).

  6. The apparent improvement in the LNP 2PP measure corresponds directly with the decline in the apparent ON/other vote.

    The dog-whistling by Dutton and others has worked. We should expect to see more – and more exaggerated – dog-whistling right thru til the election.

    The worse it gets for ON, the better it gets for the LNP. It has been ever thus.

  7. You have to remain cool when watching these polls. Quite often when bad news fades away polls improve for the government rather than anything they actually do. Who would have thought it would be a 50/50 result in the election during Turnbull’s honeymoon period? Polls do change.

  8. The RW contras are looking more and more like spent forces….no surprise as the official right have co-opted their plaints.

    Time was the LNP would steal Labor’s policies. Now they steal from their siblings.

  9. @Briefly

    That’s right. I expect One Nation to completely bomb out next election with <5 primary vote. This will be a competitive race.

  10. The LNP should bring in more people like Ms Downer as candidates. Losing 41-59 against Ms Sharkie (current Galaxy) is quite an impressive achievement.

  11. @briefly

    There a number of small political parties that could fill into the One Nation void, namely the Australian Conservatives or even the little known Australian Liberty Alliance.

  12. I wonder if the plan for Mayo isn’t just to get Sharkie to blow resources on the by-election, just to have her have to re-do it again in a month or two at a general (when people are more inclined to vote on preferred government to preferred local member.) It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if Downer gets a re-run at the general, should she lose on Saturday.

  13. Gorks, I still think Labor start as favourites to win. But the LNP are certainly in with a chance …they have the advantage of incumbency and have stopped making so many idiotic mistakes.

    On the other hand, the electorate is essentially disengaged. Politics is not on the daily menu for most. As the election approaches opinions will solidify… and it will come down to a handful of votes in a handful of seats, as usual.

  14. Maybe “African Gangs” are the new “Boats”.

    Without a doubt. That’s why they’ve been continuously talking about that topic.

  15. @Rational

    Once an independent MP gets entrenched in a seat it is really hard to remove him/her. I think a loss in Mayo may lock Liberals out of what should be a safe seat for as long as an independent incumbent is there. A big loss.

  16. Lest anyone think I am being pessimistic about Labor (I’m not; I am just seeing potential crossroads on the horizon and just preparing for that), the ALP still has two things going for it:

    1. It hasn’t trailed in a single national opinion poll since forever. Gotten close, sure, but it still has led every time.
    2. Last election, Labor went in with a weaker position and were written-off from the get-go (some pundits were predicting a Coalition GAIN) and they performed better on the day. Not necessarily going to repeat again but it puts to bed the idea that voters naturally always come home to the Coalition during the election.

  17. “Starting to think Shorten is being a drag on Labor. He has lost a heap of ground against Turnbull in the PPM polling. Having said that changing leaders would be dumb.”…. It is obviously the Liberals who have been relentlessly down to Labor in the 2PP and therefore they should change the leader…. but they won’t because they know that it “would be dumb”…. Labor know that too and the Libs are obviously aware of it. So, why is that the Libs and their many friends in the MSM keep repeating the tired tune about Shorten?….. Very simple, because they have completely run out of ideas…. options…. and soon also time!

  18. The government of the day has the advantage of announcing spending initiatives in the seats being contested – and receiving the resultant media publicity (noting our media Companies will benefit from the tax cuts on offer by Mr HIH, so a vested interest)

    Where that differs at a Federal Election is that BOTH sides are putting their spending initiatives on the basis they will be the government

    So the scales even out

    As the Opposition the ALP cannot say that voting ALP in a by election will see spending

    “If you vote for us and then vote for us again at the full election then we will fund the cameras which will make your streets safe”

    Versus “If you vote for us we will put cameras on your streets to make them safe”

    And the publicity

    And if crime is such an issue in Melbourne why cameras required in Burnie and Devonport?

    Don’t tell me there is crime in Burnie and Devonport also?

    Surely not!

  19. You left out perhaps the most important thing that Labor has going for it. A raft of policies which they will announce in due course that will be backed up by the large war chest they have accumulated – beginning with personal tax cuts for the less well off which are nearly double what the Liberals are offering.

    At the moment the Liberals are making all the running but that will change dramatically once the election is called. I would not be surprised if the support for Labor actually rises during the campaign.

  20. I’ve noticed that the Coalition have been successfully keeping all their most embarrassing members out of sight for a few months now. I can’t remember when I last saw anyone other than Turnbull on the TV news, for example. I think Simon Birmingham may have popped up a couple of weeks ago, but that’s been about it. Unless they’re expecting Malcolm to conduct a one man election campaign, that’s not going to work indefinitely. The whole Madame Tussauds Chamber of Horrors will have to come out of the woodwork eventually. Let’s see what that does to their modest poll recovery.

  21. Predictions: Abbott will try to damage turnbull this week. MSM will ignore him as much as they can, and persist with campaign to get shorten. Unless there is a swing to labor in all seats, media will declare shorten dead.

  22. Here’s the Daily Tele accompanied by a pic of Mal smiling happily and Bill looking worried.

    Labor leader Bill Shorten is set to lose the Queensland seat of Longman at the upcoming by-election, according to a new poll.

    Mr Shorten will face a 51 to 49 percent loss to the Liberals and Nationals in the Longman race, according to a YouGov Galaxy poll commissioned by The Daily Telegraph.

    The odds are evenly stacked between the two parties in Braddon in Tasmania, with the poll placing both at a 50-50 two-party preferred deadlock.

    The poll indicates Labor would also have been in the running for a victory in both marginal seats, should House of Representatives member Anthony Albanese have taken the party leader reins from Mr Shorten.

    An Albanese leadership could be expected to boost the primary vote in Longman by six and four in Braddon, to 43 and 44 percent respectively.

    A Liberal victory in Longman for a large part could be chalked up to the growth of One Nation’s primary vote from nine to 18 percent, a Galaxy poll last week suggests.

    That victory would mark the first time a federal government claimed a by-election seat in hundred years.

    It would also give a much-needed popularity boost to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull ahead of the federal polls.

  23. Eddy Jokovich

    Turnbull to Indigenous people in the NT: “our job is to listen to you and help you achieve your dreams”. Says the Prime Minister who rejected the Makaratta that they asked for last year. What a snake and a two-faced bastard. #auspol #abcnews24

  24. Paul Bongiorno

    Chilling interview on BBCTV. With Sir John Major on the dire consequences of BREXIT for the UK. A referendum without a model was utterly irresponsible and a bitter legacy for David Cameron

  25. Senior judicial figures have called for the establishment of a federal anti-corruption watchdog to investigate dubiously large sums of money paid to irrigators by the federal government.

    The New Daily can exclusively reveal that senior judicial figures from across the country have a sent a letter to Attorney-General Christian Porter asking for the ‘Strategic Water Purchases’ of Tandou, Warrego, Condamine-Balonne and Murrumbidgee, be referred to a federal version of the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC).

    This letter, which asks for an investigation into how millions of taxpayer dollars may have been misspent, referred to revelations the federal government paid way above the market price to individual cotton operators for water that it may not be able to use.

    Among the those calling for a Federal ICAC is former NSW Public Prosecutor Nick Cowdery, who said the flood of media investigations exposing ongoing corruption of the $13 billion Murray Darling Basin Plan provided a compelling argument for such a body.

  26. lizzie @ #933 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 6:28 am



    Meanwhile, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has withdrawn from campaigning in Longman, with party candidate Matthew Stephen saying she is “exhausted and in need of some R&R”. excerpt … via @newcastleherald

    Is she proving toxic on the campaign trail?

    Is she starting to generate an excuse for expected failure?

  27. Don’t worry Rational Leftist…no one will call you a concern troll.
    That’s my job apparently.

    But you’re right to be worried.
    Saturday ain’t gonna be pretty.
    The media will be in full Labor’s gorn, arise Brave Malcolm mode.

  28. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher on the Coalition’s improv3d fortunes.
    Tony Walker writes that Super Saturday will be a moment of truth for Shorten.
    Jess Irvine opines that our future prosperity depends on addressing inequality.
    Travers McLeod asks, “Is it time for an Australian sustainable finance taskforce?”
    A less than impressed Ross Gittins leads his contribution with “I see the federal Auditor-General has been less than complimentary about the Turnbull government’s cashless welfare card. The cheek! I say the man should be removed and replaced by a Liberal Party staffer forthwith.´
    Michelle Grattan looks at how the leaders are grappling for the position of underdog in the lead up to Super Saturday
    Senior judicial figures have called for the establishment of a federal anti-corruption watchdog to investigate dubiously large sums of money paid to irrigators by the federal government. This could prove to be dynamite!
    Greg Jericho writes that industry super funds are thrashing those run by banks – and business is crying foul.
    In similar vein Labor senator Jenny McAllister says the Australian public service deserves a leader who respects it. Hear hear!
    John McDuling wonders if Amazon will go the same wat as Starbucks has don in Australia.
    Labor says it will reverse the Coalition’s plan to axe the clean energy supplement, which is worth hundreds of dollars a year, for those who went onto welfare after September 2016.
    The Trump presidency is the politics of anti-politics, writes Kim Sawyer. It is the politics of disrespect. Trump is “The Lord of the Lies”, he says.,11714
    Researcher Nicky Ison tells us that the Turnbull NEG policy guarantees nothing but the status quo on power and climate.
    The British billionaire investing in South Australia believes renewables are the future of energy, because it makes economic sense – and he’s going to prove it!
    Richo says that the LNP are running a scare campaign against Labor which reeks of hypocrisy as Turnbull wants to make us believe that Labor will open the borders and the boats will be hitting our shores again with all of the accompanying deaths at sea.
    Professor Mark Gregory says that the NBN should be built and fully operational by 2022, having cost about A$50 billion. The question will then be whether the government should retain the NBN or sell it off.
    Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has cautioned US President Donald Trump about pursuing hostile policies against Tehran, saying “America should know … war with Iran is the mother of all wars.”
    Urban Wronski this week begins with comment on how Shorten has been attacked by “our glorious Coalition, a collective of climate change deniers, rent-seekers, lobbyists and sundry other butlers, maids of the mining, banking and corporate oligarchies which run our nation with Gina Rinehart and Rupert Murdoch’s tender assistance”.
    The SMH editorial says rapid population growth is causing growing pains. The answer is to increase investment in infrastructure, not to demonise people making such a positive contribution.
    Meanwhile a leader of Victoria’s South Sudanese community has claimed he was bashed in a politically motivated attack, amid a growing rift within the community and a government freeze on funding.
    The Uber Tuber just won’t let up though!
    The regulator responsible for the nation’s super was warned eight years ago that the major banks were overcharging members.
    The prospect of sending more skilled migrants to the bush to work appears to be gathering steam with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull saying it is “certainly feasible” and a Labor senator signalling the party is open to the idea.
    The proposal to weigh children at school is justified by Professor Allender on the grounds that it’s working well in the United States and the United Kingdom. If that’s the case then how come American kids are so obese? Kasey Edwards won’t have a bar of it.
    The Trump administration has released documents related to the surveillance of former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, as part of an investigation into whether he colluded with Russia to undermine the 2016 US presidential election.
    A story from the New Ypork Times explains that Republicans, regardless of their stance so far, are facing a charge that goes beyond the White House: complicity.
    Another Troppo Trump Tweet session.
    Owen Evans says that We seem to have entered yet another outbreak of data anxiety in Australia, triggered by the introduction of an opt-out period for the My Health Record system. He concludes that it is up to the industry to find solutions that will once again make it safe for non-expert citizens to use IT as an enabler rather than seeing it as the “big scary baby” it seems to have become.
    When you don’t count national parks, Sydney’s population density exceeds Los Angeles’ – and some suburbs are more heavily impacted than others.
    Embattled department store owner Myer has launched legal action to recover the $4 million the struggling retailer says it is owed by its product warranty insurer.
    Investigative reporter Kate McClymont, who has won five Walkley awards and collected even more death threats, is a firm advocate for changing defamation laws..
    The banking royal commission has probed AMP and the big four banks for hundreds of thousands of documents, board minutes and fee and return structures as it prepares to grill executives over misconduct in the $2.6 trillion superannuation sector.
    ARCO fund manager George Colman says he is cautious on the Australian economy and is warning of a “slow-motion property market crash”.
    A new report shows telco consumers are not impressed with their customer service experiences – especially with Telstra.
    We are up for a spectacular lunar eclipse on the morning of 28 July.
    Michael West reports that the Adani Group’s near decade-long attempts to build an integrated “pit-to-plug” export thermal coal mine in the Queensland’s Galilee Basin, to supply its 4.6 gigawatt (GW) Mundra import coal fired power plant remains at risk of being a stranded asset. However, Adani Ports chief executive Karan Adani’s comments this week highlight that Carmichael is by no means dead and buried.
    The family of Australian life coach Justine Damond Ruszczyk, who was shot dead by a Minneapolis police officer, will file a civil lawsuit in the US. If successful, the lawsuit could result in a multimillion dollar payout to her family.
    Grieving Australians could be saving “thousands” of dollars in funeral costs but are often ripped off at their most vulnerable by aggressive up-selling tactics on unnecessary ‘bells and whistles’. There are ways of keeping the cost down.

    Cartoon Corner – this is all I could dig up!

    At least DVID Rowe has a couple for us.

    Jon Kudelka on the fight to claim underdog status.
    Just three more in here.

  29. SH-Y doing political commentary on Channel 7 Sunrise.

    Actually sounding quite sensible and objective. Won’t buy into KillBill. Healthy scepticism on electorate polls.


    “Smoke and mirrors”. That’s the best way to describe the current state-of-play regarding Australia’s immigration debate from both major parties.

    The Weekend Australian’s front page proclaimed “Turnbull tackles population”, trumpetting the fake 21,000 cut to the permanent migrant intake and the Coalition’s new immigration management brain fart: migrant tag and release in the bush.

    …Totally unmanageable, of course, without migrant proof fences and satellite tracking bracelets. Moreover, there was no mention of the surge in bridging visas by 40,000 over the past year (and 90,000 since 2014) as migrants await to hear their applications for permanent residency:

  31. Love this description of Downer by urbanwronski.

    Trickle-Downers struggle in SA, too as Mayo voters rebuff Georgina, returned prodigal daughter of the local Downer dynasty, after 20 year’s absence, reduced to a blow-in. She puts on a marvellous ventriloquist’s dummy act. She cannot so much as squeak in public without her PM, her former PM or some other top Liberal by her side. It’s a brilliant show. You can barely see their lips move.

  32. Morning all an thnnks BK. The poll is ssappointing fafctor8ng iin the usual bielection anti-gowing, which appears absent.

    They say all politics is local. I finnd it hard to believe African gang are a problem in Longman. Are there other local issues Labor has missed in Longman?

  33. MSM Watchdog

    @LiberalVictoria MP @simonramsaymp caught drink-driving almost 4 x legal limit after blowing 0.19 when tested by Bellarine police at Barwon Heads on Sat night. Mr Ramsay’s potential exit could reduce Libs to 13 members in UH, behind Labor’s 14.

  34. Socrates

    Downer is being supported by all the old guard, but although that may give her confidence, she’s still an empty vessel.

  35. This is on the money. I particularly remember the ‘ginormous’ pay increases for university Chancellors etc the moment they became privatised.

    Royal Mail pay scandal shows that the privatisation money trough is still open for greedy bosses

    Whether or not anyone else gains from privatisation, bosses of privatised industries certainly do

    A quick Google and it seems pay rises are still ‘very nice’ for the Chancellors.

    The best paid vice-chancellor was Sydney University’s Professor Michael Spence, who received $1.4 million, after a 56 per cent increase over five years.

  36. Socrates @ #124 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 7:37 am

    Morning all an thnnks BK. The poll is ssappointing fafctor8ng iin the usual bielection anti-gowing, which appears absent.

    They say all politics is local. I finnd it hard to believe African gang are a problem in Longman. Are there other local issues Labor has missed in Longman?

    I think the sample size in the Longman poll was 578 from memory. Pretty small to build the edifice that the Curious Snail has constructed. No indication on questions or order thereof. I suspect the polling of any party would increase by a few percent if you ask how people would vote if “someone else” were the leader.

    The simplest explanation is that it’s all part of the right wing conspiracy to Kill Bill.

  37. The Galaxy poll in Longman was quoted in local FM radio news as “evidence” that Bill is finished, kaput. Presumably that idea will infest radio and TV today. Be prepared.

    Also, what is the real reason for Pauline to apparently abandon campaigning today? Is she unwell or has Ashby told her to go quiet for some reason?

  38. How low can people like Murdoch, Dutton and Guy go?

    Tears as crime crisis claims teen
    A talented young soccer player died when a brawl broke out at a party hosted by a group of African-Australians.

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