Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A slight narrowing in the Labor lead brings Essential Research’s two-party result in line with Newspoll’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll for The Guardian has Labor’s two-party lead down from 52-48 to 51-49. Primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full results later today. A series of findings on energy policy offer something for everybody. Eighty per cent favoured an inquiry into the contribution of power companies to high power prices; 63% thought energy companies should be returned to public ownership; 61% believing burning coal causes climate change; and 55% thought expanding coal mining would undermine efforts to address it. However, 47% thought coal-fired power cheaper than that from renewables; 40% supported the call by some Nationals for $5 billion to be spent on coal plants, with 38% opposed. Thirty-eight per cent thought the government should prioritise renewables over coal, 16% thought the opposite, and 34% thought they should be treated equally.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Diogenes says: Friday, July 20, 2018 at 3:58 pm

    AE
    I’d say Trump was more like Berlusconi than Mussolini.

    ********************************

    Agree there with you Diogenes – Berlusconi and Women – the Jeffrey Epstein parties and Trump

    THE GIRLS OF BERLUSCONI: Who They Are And Why It Matters

    Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi way with women has been well documented.

    His “bunga bunga” parties have become the stuff of folklore, mysterious parties with unlimited girls, cocaine, and “Putin’s bed”.

    But Berlusconi’s love of females extends outside of bunga bunga. He’s also filled his government with them, and sent a bevy of babes to Europe to be Members of the European Parliament — some qualified, some less so.

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/berlusconi-women-bunga-bunga-2011-9?r=US&IR=T#the-wife-veronica-lario-1

  2. ar
    It’s quite fashionable amongst ancient historians to rehabilitate Nero’s reputation. They say he’s been vilified unfairly.

  3. I’ve never suffered the delusion of thinking Trumble had any beliefs or standards to trash other than complete self interest, but it still is pretty sick making when he puts the fact out there so brazenly. I suspect the ill feeling is from knowing so many dickheads still rate the louse in some way when it doesn’t exactly take a lot of effort to notice what a completely contemptible turd he is and has always been. Abbott is a better person. That’s how low both of them are.

  5. Berlusconi was continually in court like Trump and loved whining about the media despite owning half of it. They share the fake tan and hair as well.

  15. Simon² Katich® @ #1874 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 3:29 pm

    I assume you would then fully agree that the US us addicted to its military too

    We are not talking about the US. Your assumption is correct but the comparison only muddies the waters.

    Is there any realistic evidence that Russia posed any threat whatever to its neighbours.

    Yes. Russia wants a defacto Soviet Union by being surrounded by client states and then forge allegiances (even weak ones) further afield. If a client state shows any reluctance then force is necessary. There can be no show of weakness by Russia in this. Any client state that shows resistance must be crushed as a sign to others. Look at poor old Georgia. What is it now? 30km from Tblisi to the new Russian border?

    It is a bit like Australia seeking to help New Zealand if taken over by the French

    No its not.

    Simon, given that we a talking about mostly the US view about Russia, of course it makes sense. When the biggest bully on the planet calls out the second or third biggest bully, it is pathetic of us to back the biggest bully.

    Call out ALL bullies. Russia is minnow in the bullying stakes. It is hypocritical in the extreme to back the US view on Russia when if you look at the last 60 years the comparison in terms of death, destruction, human rights abuses wrought by the USA on other countries pales into insignificance anything Russia may have done. Russia did not invade Iraq on lies.

    Moreover my comment related to military spending. If you actually FEAR the guy over the road thinking he is going to destroy your house, fire rifles at your windows and water tanks it makes sense to build a giant fence and install security cameras even if you have to live on baked beans for three years to afford it. Certainly since the expansion of NATO to include the Baltic States and Poland, Russia would have been a fool of a nation not to rebuild its military.

    I think your comment about neighbours is also a bit biased. Every single country in the world wants that same objective but they cannot all achieve it. Think of the US attitude to Cuba and Venezuela . Every single word you wrote about Russia applies in triplicate. Far more damage done to the people of these countries.

    Now exactly which country has Russia crushed in the last 20 years. If you mean Crimea that is just silly. Crimea has been a part of Russia for longer than the Scotland has been part of the UK. There was not one whit of crushing. To prove my point the recent presidential election (which was free and fair and real, albeit with some candidates gone would have been a good guide to Crimean sentiment. They could for example have voted 60% for an opposition candidate if they hated Putin and being part of Russian. In reality they voted 90% for Putin. Now they have a beautiful big bridge linking them to Russia, a huge boost in their tourist trade and better pensions and salaries. I am sure they are feeling so very sad!!!

    Poor old Georgia? Are you a Stalinist now!!! Again it was an ethnic Russian enclave that was affected and came under attack from the Georgians.

    By contrast there are many many countries the US has bombed in the ;last 20 years.

  16. Ratsak and Sohar,

    It seems the Murdoch media is the Greens go-to source of information.

    You guys are hilarious. I posted 4 links from 4 different news sources, one of which was The Australian, the other 3 being The Age, The Guardian and news.com.

    You really need to come up with a better ad hominem to appear at least slightly credible.

    But then a slur by imputation regardless of facts is how you play the game.

    I could say Sprocket, for example, uses The Australian as his “go to source” but then that is equally as facile as your comment.

  18. “Bob Mueller has now confirmed that Hillary Clinton met with a Russian agent during the 2016 election. Here’s photographic evidence.”

  19. Sohar says: Friday, July 20, 2018 at 4:22 pm

    “Bob Mueller has now confirmed that Hillary Clinton met with a Russian agent during the 2016 election. Here’s photographic evidence.”

    *********************************

    Ha Ha – loved your post, Sohar 🙂

  23. Shock, horror!

    Nick McKim makes a good point without killing it by going overboard. 🙂

    The Greens justice spokesman, Nick McKim, went further: “This is blatant pork barrelling from the Liberal party and it shows they have nothing to offer the people of Tasmania except fear and division,” he said.

  24. ** Poor old Georgia? Are you a Stalinist now!!! Again it was an ethnic Russian enclave that was affected and came under attack from the Georgians. **
    Stalist. Yes. How did you guess?

    There isnt a more clearly defined land border I can think of than that between Georgia and Russia. Russia invading Georgia had nothing to do with the rights of a Russian speaking people of Ossetia. Even Abkhazia is pushing it.

    And no, I dont think US military might has anything to do with how Russia is behaving with Ukraine and other ex soviet republics. The US were scared to go into Syria. They sure as heck arent interested in Russia. So it begs the question why spend so much on their military? US hegemony is waning. The EU, China, and even Brazil and India show that. Never before has a more liberal approach to international relations been such an attractive option but I see Russia’s military keeping them on a realist path.

  25. That 60 million deaths in the USSR seems high according to Wikipedia. 20 million is quoted but some AUSTRALIAN academic thinks it much lower.

    Now here is an interesting question. Since NONE of the heads of Russia from the mid 1920s through to mid 80s was in fact Russian, who is to blame for the deaths.

    Everyone can say Stalin of course but was he working for Russia or Georgia. He was not a Russian. Nor were any of his suceesors.

    In fact it would seem that Putin is the first actual Russian head of Russia since Tsar Alexander. OK not quite true. Lenin was born in Russia but was of ethnic origin, Trotsky was Russian but also Jewish, Gorby was half Russian and I guess Boris Bozo was Russian too. All the others were Ukranian. Not sure if they were Russian speakers or Ukranian speakers.

  26. 7 News report on Husar’s bullying allegations went full ‘Frontline’ with their journo using backdrop of Labour Council building. Report content was fairly low key, but this is just an early stage of Bushfire Bill’s “boot-strapping” process.

  27. I think I have posted regularly critical of the history of US foreign policy. I just believe that these days it is less relevant and too easy an excuse to say – ‘ha! but look what the US did!’

    What the US did and does to Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, Chile…. isnt relevant to how Russia deals with Europe and the States between them.

  28. phoenixRED

    but am a passionately Anti-Trump Australian

    There is much to be for good reason ‘anti’ . I just think there is too often a putting all blame on Trump when it is just business as usual or him being a symptom of an ailing system or dare I say ‘ailing society rather than the cause of the ailment.

    Vlad and Donald may disappear tomorrow but the problems will remain and unfortunately for the 99% get worse.

  31. Van Badham

    @vanbadham
    8h

    I sort of enjoy the moments when conservatives and Greens gang up to smear me with baseless and false accusations on Twitter – only because it’s so nice to see parents bonding with their kids again. #auspol

  32. “This is blatant pork barrelling from the Liberal party and it shows they have nothing to offer the people of Tasmania except fear and division”

    except pork but not an AFL team

  34. Nero was a decent emperor when he left government in the hands of competent advisors like Burrus and Seneca. It’s when he had to make decisions on his own that Nero went to water.

    Caligula was a write-off from the get-go. To this day, no one is sure what his exact problem was (though much scope for speculation).

  36. Notice the use of the “Labor Party machine”. What is the Liberal equivalent???

    Senior federal Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese has defended his colleague Emma Husar as a “terrific” hardworking single mum.

    The western Sydney MP faces claims of workplace bullying. She is being investigated by the Labor party machine following complaints of alleged harassment, verbal abuse and misuse of staff.

    The backbencher has been accused of making staff mind her children and clean up her dog’s faeces while walking it under working conditions one staffer described as “hell”, BuzzFeed reported.

    But Ms Husar, who represents the NSW electorate of Lindsay, said she’s “horrified” to learn of the investigation.

    “My office is a professional and respectful workplace. It should not be perceived in any other way, and of course I am sorry if any person has been given reason to think otherwise,” she said in a statement.

    “I am a single mum with three children, working hard and doing my best. If I have let anyone down, I apologise.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/07/20/emma-husar-albanese/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Update%2020180720

  38. Shellbell @ #1935 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 1:55 pm

    “This is blatant pork barrelling from the Liberal party and it shows they have nothing to offer the people of Tasmania except fear and division”

    except pork but not an AFL team

    But that’s not fear, even though it may bring some division.

    Maybe they could call them the Wild Boars. 🙂

  39. Simon² Katich® @ #1924 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 4:37 pm

    ** Poor old Georgia? Are you a Stalinist now!!! Again it was an ethnic Russian enclave that was affected and came under attack from the Georgians. **
    Stalist. Yes. How did you guess?

    There isnt a more clearly defined land border I can think of than that between Georgia and Russia. Russia invading Georgia had nothing to do with the rights of a Russian speaking people of Ossetia. Even Abkhazia is pushing it.

    And no, I dont think US military might has anything to do with how Russia is behaving with Ukraine and other ex soviet republics. The US were scared to go into Syria. They sure as heck arent interested in Russia. So it begs the question why spend so much on their military? US hegemony is waning. The EU, China, and even Brazil and India show that. Never before has a more liberal approach to international relations been such an attractive option but I see Russia’s military keeping them on a realist path.

    Simon

    I am certain you are wrong about Ossettia – Russian ethnicity I think. I would however fully support an independent vote to allow them to decide if they want to again be part of Georgia or independent. I supported the right of a Scottish referendum and also in Catalan so I would agree that a vote in Ossettia would be a good idea.

    But OK I accept that the desire to have a buffer state along the border also was a big big factor. Just consider the US reaction should mexico join the Russian trade/cooperation block.

    Your comment about USA scared to go into Russia etc is actually right but you are I suspect putting the cart before the horse AND underestimating the ability of the USA power elite to delude itself.

    It is more complex than “scared”

    First yes I agree Obama was reluctant to put ground troops into Syria, but he faced a LOT of opposition both from the military and power brokers. Hillary Clinton for one was one of those pushing for a more robust intervention. I suspect that there are different opinions within the US military. In part I think it is an age thing. Older Americans including Hillary are more inclined to still perceive the USA as it was in 1990, at the pinnacle of its “exceptional” power. For that group going into battle is a good thing. The USA is bound to win etc etc. Yes most of us know it does not work, but I am not sure that people like John McCain or even Bolton actually accept that. Trump too shows signs of believing that the US can take on all comers.

    You are i think wrong about the US not interested in Russia. of course they are.They want that oil, that gas and those resources. In the Bill Clinton era of Bozo Boris the USA actually DID have Russia. It was a broken country and it was only a matter of time before independence rebellions would have shattered it further into many tiny statelets. Easy pickings for the US corporate elite (and the British and froggies too). When Putin tossed out the oligarchs he effectively tossed out the US and British and Israeli interests that had stolen most of the Russian wealth.

    Now obviously this begs the question. Would the US actually be bold enough to attack Russia. My answer is yes and no. There can be little doubt that part of the US strategy has been to pick off Russian allies in the hope of surrounding Russia, weakening her. The colour revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine were prime examples and the attacks on Libya and Syria and possibly Iran must be seen in that light too.

    There can be little doubt that Russia feels surrounded and fears attack from several simultaneously. Indeed take a look at the borders and it would be a foolish Russian leadership that was NOT conscious of the danger from so many potentially hostile neighbours. Chinese and Muslem stans to the south, hostile anti Russian ideologues in eastern Europe eg Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states. it is a heady and rather scary mix.

    If you look at the Russian borders and ignore the US for a while, Russia has a LOT of scary neighbours, so it makes sense to keep a pretty strong military. Gee it even has Rocket man hovering over Vladisvostock.

  41. poroti says: Friday, July 20, 2018 at 4:45 pm

    phoenixRED

    but am a passionately Anti-Trump Australian

    There is much to be for good reason ‘anti’ . I just think there is too often a putting all blame on Trump when it is just business as usual or him being a symptom of an ailing system or dare I say ‘ailing society rather than the cause of the ailment.

    Vlad and Donald may disappear tomorrow but the problems will remain and unfortunately for the 99% get worse.

    ******************************************************

    My brother often drops in on a Saturday and we often have a few drinks and get into – ( play Little River Band ) – *reminiscing* about ‘the good old days’ – when we had good music, full employment, hot cars etc etc and lived through probably the longest period of no war/ conscription, could still buy a house, have a regular doctor and dentist, car mechanic ……. I don’t envy what my kids and grand-kids have in front of them –

    Trump/Putin….Churchill/Hitler ……Lloyd George/Wilson/Kaiser …….. history just repeats and those who ignore the lessons of the past are just doomed to repeat them ….

  42. I am still amazed that a few people kind of have a soft spot for Russia and its political leadership. To conflate being married to a Russian or know Russians are friendly, love a vodka and can have a good time, does not alter the fact that their politics is steeped in blood. To think there is some kind of moral equivalence between actions of the West and that of Russia just does not cut with me.
    The current regime is a cynical throwback to halcyon days when Russia was “important” on the world’s stage. The difference of course is the regime is now of the right, in cahoots with the Orthodox church and making a few individuals very rich indeed. While it is likely the Russian people do support Putin and like a strong leader, the problem is no other credible leader is allowed to contest for the hearts and minds of the Russian people.
    Russians by and large, do not do democracy.
    Trump’s efforts a few days ago made Putin smile, and who can blame him as he had totally humiliated Trump and has won the propaganda war hands down.
    Who would have thought it? A country of 150 million people or so, most not doing all that well and with an economy not much bigger than that of Australia, being given a star billing which has faded long ago.
    I notice the Trump defenders are coming out with………..”Trump is a man of peace and wants to talk peace to Russia”………….Both Trump and his supporters taking this line are sorely misguided.

  43. poroti @4:45

    It’s an affront to my sensibility that someone as wilfully ignorant as Trump can become POTUS.

    Everything is made stupider. Even if you don’t think his actions, or Supreme Court placements make a difference. How are things ever meant to improve when the political strategy is to continuously distract by being ‘stupider than yesterday’?

    He has a base with a stupid grab-bag of things that he can punish and blame, just like PHON.

  44. dtt

    Seriously, do you ever fact check?

    I did a quickie on a few Russian leaders – Vitaly Vorotnikov Vladimir Orlov Mikhail Yasnov
    Nikolai Ignatov – all born in Russia.

    I couldn’t be bothered after that, but no one I looked at came from the Ukraine.

  45. Mark Bailey MP
    Verified account

    @MarkBaileyMP
    4h

    Another Big Fib by Big Trev – here he’s claiming in his Facebook vid he built Boundary Rd Overpass at Bruce when it was in fact funded by Palaszczuk Labor Govt. Trev had 3 years as @CampbellNewman’s MP & got $0 in 3 budgets #stopthefibsTrev @AlboMP @AustralianLabor @QLDLabor

  46. **I would however fully support an independent vote to allow them to decide if they want to again be part of Georgia or independent.**
    dtt, you have argued this before. You just can not simplify it so that a popular vote over-rules long held State borders. It doesnt work like that. It cant work like that. What you are advocating is a complete change to the international order. You may think it is messy now, but it is nothing compared to how it would be under the system you are espousing.

  47. @Diogenes

    I agree with Donald Trump being a lot like Berlusconi. Silvio set the template for Donald Trump 15 years before Trump ran for President.

    I believe what has happened in Italy with the collapse of the old party system, also the rise of Five Star Movement and Lega Nord will happen to Australia in the next decade or so. Since I am predicting a bursting of the housing bubble similar to what Ireland experienced during the GFC, along with an unpopular bail out of failing banks. That will likely lead to the collapse of the current party system.

    @lizzie

    I have noticed that as well, in that the Liberal party machine is hardly mentioned in the press.

    Especially given that Tony Abbott has recently complained about the NSW Liberal Party machine overriding the members of the party. Although I believe that is a good thing since the moderates control the NSW Liberal Party and can prevent potential nutjobs from being getting Liberal Party preselection, which will happen in Victoria since the Conservatives are in control of the party down there.

  48. ** So Putin is the first Russian if you don’t count all the others? **
    Zoom, I wasnt russian into replying to that one. There is only so much one can get to.

    But I am russian out the door to go home. Later peeps.

  49. zoomster @ #1940 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 5:07 pm

    So Putin is the first Russian if you don’t count all the others?

    Well sort of yes.

    OK Lenin was a Russian but he was very much an internationalist ie he believed in the world wide worker revolution and was not really a Russian nationalist in the usual sense of the word. I think he like many others thought the revolution would happen in Germany. Trotsky never really was head of government.

    So from the time of Lenin until the arrival of Gorby every single leader was NOT Russian. Even Gorby was half Ukranian. Khrushchev was famously Ukrainian which is WHY Crimea was given to Ukraine to administer. It had been part of Russia but Khrushchev decided otherwise. Gromyko was from Belarus. Cernenko was of Ukrainian origin, Adropov was part German part Cossack, Brezhnev was Ukrainian, Malenkov was from the Ottoman Turkish areas . Seems like the very model of a multi ethnic society with equal opportunity for dictators of all natonalites

    But hey I did at last find a Russian – famous cocktail maker. Interestingly according to Wikkipeadia this was the only other time that Russia made great improvments in industrial cpacity.

  50. Krushchev was not Ukrainian. The village he was born in is still part of Russia, his parents were Russian.

    Malenkov was Russian.

    Haven’t had time to check the others.

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