Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A slight narrowing in the Labor lead brings Essential Research’s two-party result in line with Newspoll’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll for The Guardian has Labor’s two-party lead down from 52-48 to 51-49. Primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full results later today. A series of findings on energy policy offer something for everybody. Eighty per cent favoured an inquiry into the contribution of power companies to high power prices; 63% thought energy companies should be returned to public ownership; 61% believing burning coal causes climate change; and 55% thought expanding coal mining would undermine efforts to address it. However, 47% thought coal-fired power cheaper than that from renewables; 40% supported the call by some Nationals for $5 billion to be spent on coal plants, with 38% opposed. Thirty-eight per cent thought the government should prioritise renewables over coal, 16% thought the opposite, and 34% thought they should be treated equally.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 43
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  1. Maria Butina arrested for spying for the Russians in the US. Shes the one with links to the NRA and the Kremlin.

  2. From the previous thread:

    Essential – 51/49: more evidence of a genuine tightening of the polls this year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/17/voters-back-energy-inquiry-as-labor-lead-slips-slightly-guardian-essential-poll

    While ESJ likes to kick sand in our faces with some stupid comparison with 2004 (because … Mark Latham … and genuine Labor embarrassment about that), the real issue is whether we are looking at a 2001 election redux.

    Come on Brian! Call it now! You can claw back the 2PP in a campaign once you Malsplain everything. You know you want to. #electionnow!

  4. What kind of moron thinks coal-fired power cheaper than that from renewables which is free? F*&^ me I’m buggered…

  6. Publicist who set up infamous Trump Tower meeting: Putin lied about not knowing of Trump’s 2013 Moscow trip

    Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on Monday that there was no possible way he could have authorized his government to gather compromising information on President Donald Trump in 2013 because he didn’t even realize at the time that Trump was visiting Moscow for the Miss Universe pageant.

    However, Rob Goldstone — the official publicist for the Agalarov family who set up the infamous 2016 meeting at Trump Tower between Donald Trump Jr. and Russian agents promising dirt on Hillary Clinton — says that Putin is lying.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/publicist-set-infamous-trump-tower-meeting-putin-lied-not-knowing-trumps-2013-moscow-trip/

  7. Morning all. I think the poll is a reaction to Shorten’s tax cut slip a week ago. But underlying sentiment to Malcolm and Co remains poor. All of their key policies are unpopular. The latest scam is to politicise Treasury, a new low for either side.

  8. Morning all

    Not happy with latest essential result. Labor are losing ground.

    Meanwhile as mentioned by Ides of March, Maria Butina has been arrested.
    For those of us following the Trump saga, we had discussed her links to the NRA etc and posited if she were a Russian spy attempting to infiltrate the Republican party. I even wondered if she were actually related to Putin, and if her name Butina was a play on the Putin name.
    Getting real interesting

  10. “What kind of moron thinks coal-fired power cheaper than that from renewables which is free? F*&^ me I’m buggered…”

    When talking about NEW power stations, you are absolutely correct. If you are talking about the costs of operating existing coal-fired power stations vs establishing new renewable eneergy power, the equation is not so clear cut because its not a straight up ‘apples with apples’ comparision. Most of the existing coal fired power stations have already been paid for (and those sold off to private enterprise were mostly amortised).

    So the cost equation side of the comparsion is coal, plus labour, plus mainatenance, plus amortrisation of capital (if any). The cost equation on the otherside is mainly the capital costs assaociated with replacing existing sources of energy (huge, even when amortised) plus some fairly small running and maintenence costs.

    There is a cost adavantage in keeping existing CFPS running, but not replacing them, as the market invests in new technologies. having quickly read the Crowe article in today’s Fairfax I suspect there is a very good case to keep existing CFPS running until thge end of their expected life until about 2040 (because of the number of CFPS due to retire over that period that would still equate to a substantial reduction in emissions over the same period) before starting the countdown clock running in 2040 to decommission the rest by 2050.

    So long as we dont build any new CFPS then that would leave us with effective zero emmissions in the electrcity sector by 2050 – with or without P1s plans to also use Gas as a transitional fuel over the same period. Which is what we want. However, if some of the storage technology delivers big time over the next 10-15 years (i.e. pumped hydro) then the decommissioning clock could probably be brought forward by up to 10 years and we could be at zero emmissions (in the electricity sector) by about 2040.

  13. Maria Butina, an Alleged Russian Spy with Ties to the NRA is Arrested and Charged

    Just moments ago federal prosecutors in the United States have unsealed a criminal complaint against a woman named Maria Butina. In the official complaint, Butina is accused of a “Conspiracy to Act as an Agent of a Foreign Government”. The government alleges that Butina conspired with others known and unknown to the government to act “as an agent of” the “Russian Federation” without notifying the Attorney General of the United States. These accusations date from 2015 and possibly earlier, up until present day.

    Maria Butina has bragged that she was part of the Trump campaign’s communications with Russia.

    This could be a significant arrest for the U.S. DOJ and Special Counsel Robert Mueller. If a criminal conspiracy exists between the NRA, the Trump Campaign and Russia, Butina might just hold the keys

    https://hillreporter.com/maria-butina-an-alleged-russian-spy-with-ties-to-the-nra-is-arrested-and-charged-3813

  14. “Morning all. I think the poll is a reaction to Shorten’s tax cut slip a week ago. But underlying sentiment to Malcolm and Co remains poor. All of their key policies are unpopular. The latest scam is to politicise Treasury, a new low for either side.”

    Time flies, but the corporate tax cock up was nearly 3 weeks ago now. Just saying.

    I think these cock-ups (Labor extreme vetting, partial backflip on imputation cashbacks, partial backflip on corporate tax) give some life to the nearly dead ‘killbill’ campaign. However, I wonder if it is enough. The narrowing is painfully small. The LNPs position on tax is a little hollow and entirely made of sugar. On the other hand Labor can build a policy palace from its accumulated warchest – including matching or bettering the tax cuts on offer for the bottom 7 economic deciles). All I can say is fingers crossed and bring on the general election!

  19. Trump has taken Putin’s side. His stability and America’s safety are now in question.

    The Helsinki summit is over, and we are all left struggling to find the words to capture the nightmare that in the space of less than 24 hours destroyed years of American diplomacy, sacrifice and leadership.

    So perhaps we should just admit what our own eyes cannot deny: We have now witnessed the very worst humiliations of a president of the United States ever, and one of the lowest points in the history of the American presidency.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/07/16/donald-trump-sides-vladimir-putin-most-danger-since-cold-war-column/786850002/

  20. Sprocket ~ @ #15 Tuesday, July 17th, 2018 – 7:07 am

    What’s going on with Murdoch’s gutter tabloid in QLD? Walking both sides of the street?

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Their one weakness is they can’t resist a genuine scandal.

    Currently being carried on the ABC breakfast show as well at some length.

    I suspect Turnbulls “big Trev” is GORN!

  21. Two little nuggets from the last thread.

    I’ve got years of professional experience in EU and there’s plenty of areas I don’t feel competent to speak on. Putting something so complex to a public vote was an act of monstrous negligence.

    From Puffy: the Chinese one-child policy was invented by a rocket scientist.

  22. Counterchekist
    Counterchekist
    @counterchekist
    ·
    42m
    Just in time for today’s big news; Maria Butina, who worked closely with NRA & Torshin, was arrested and charged with conspiracy to act as an agent of Russia.

    Where did NRA’s extra $100 million in 2016 election spending come from, #DanaLoesch? Stop being a snowflake and answer.

  23. What is it with right wingers and false military decorations?

    And when did “screwed up” change its meaning to “lied”? I thought “screwed up” meant “made an honest mistake”. I need a new copy of the Liberal Party English Dictionary, editted by George Orwell.

  24. The T word is now being openly used. Took long enough, but here we are.
    The big question remains, what does Putin have on Trump and what exactly has been promised?

    Eric Garland
    Eric Garland
    @ericgarland
    ·
    3h
    NOTHING SHORT OF TREASONOUS
    KT CounterIntelligence
    @KremlinTrolls
    Former intel chiefs express astonishment and condemnation of Trump’s news conference with Putin, with former CIA Director John Brennan calling the US President’s performance “nothing short of treasonous.”
    (link: https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/16/politics/john-brennan-donald-trump-treasonous-vladimir-putin/index.html) cnn.com/2018/07/16/pol…

  25. Victoria says: Tuesday, July 17, 2018 at 7:18 am

    The T word is now being openly used. Took long enough, but here we are.
    The big question remains, what does Putin have on Trump and what exactly has been promised?

    ****************************************************

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    Mueller knows everything.

    Thanks to the IC.

    I repeat: Mueller. Knows. Everything.

    How many times do @TheRickWilson & I gotta tell y’all this?

    And btw … He’s coming.

  26. Is this Trump’s moment of decline commencing? The Editorial Opinion from financial press behemoth Bloomberg

    ‘Asked about those attacks, Trump said, “My people came to me, Dan Coats came to me and some others, they said they think it’s Russia. I have President Putin, he just said it’s not Russia. I will say this: I don’t see any reason why it would be.” The implication is that Putin is a more credible source of information about Russian skullduggery than the combined intelligence agencies of the U.S. government.

    Trump also spoke warmly of Putin’s “incredible offer” to have Russian investigators help out with the case. Incredible is the word.

    Discussing why relations with Russia are bad, the U.S. president, in a tweet, blamed “U.S. foolishness” — as opposed to the assault on America, Russia’s invasions of Ukraine and Georgia, the killing of innocents in Syria, and efforts to undermine democracy in Europe.

    In all, it was an astonishing display, and one that should leave the president’s supporters in Congress and the nation alarmed. A country can hardly defend itself against future assaults if its president can’t acknowledge the ones that have already taken place.’

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-16/trump-sides-with-putin-a-shocking-display-in-helsinki?utm_content=view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_source=twitter

  27. Jake Tapper
    ‏Verified account @jaketapper
    4h4 hours ago

    POTUS: “My people came to me, (DNI) Dan Coats came to me and some others, they said they think it’s Russia. I have President Putin; he just said it’s not Russia.
    I will say this: I don’t see any reason why it would be.“

  28. Good morning Bludgers 🙂

    Just when Labor needs them most, out come the Pollyannas and the Nervous Nellies.

    Can you please stop playing this game of raining on Bill Shorten and Labor’s parade every time the going gets tough!?! It’s how the Democrats lose to the Republican Party, time and again. People on their side never give up! Even when the chips are down, they pretend they aren’t! That’s what Turnbull did when the polls were going to hell in a handbasket last year. ‘What, me worried? I’m just getting on with governing!’ Well, in this uncertain world that’s what people want. A leader who has the confidence to govern. That confidence comes from supporters who stand with him or her against the prevailing headwinds, not quail at the first smell of grapeshot!

    Jeez! Labor has the best story to tell and the best policies, even if some of you seem to get unalloyed and barely-disguised joy from nitpicking them to pieces.

    Sure, Labor isn’t perfect, but they are the best thing going for our country and to be able to stand up for the little guy against the Authoritarian wave sweeping over the world.

    Isn’t that what you want?

  29. I have no doubt Trump is treasonous. But I say again the Republicans wont dump him and the Democrats cant. If the courts dont work he stays.

  31. Dr. Dena Grayson‏Verified account @DrDenaGrayson

    EDVA judge in Manafort’s case postponed tomorrow’s hearing on procedural issues (change of venue/trial delay).
    Fmr federal prosecutor @renato_mariotti says the most likely scenario is that a PLEA DEAL is in the works.

  32. Test

    Nope. Embedding a WashPo video didn’t work. 🙁

    It was so good as it showed even Fox News talking heads were in disbelief and disarray about Trump!

  34. Dan Balz, respected Washington Post reporter and opinion writer, gets to the nub of Trump’s Helsinki performance(and that’s what you have to call it because Trump thinks his Presidency is just another of his Reality TV acts):

    When the history of Donald Trump’s presidency is ultimately written, July 16, 2018, will have a special entry. On a day when the setting called for a show of strength and resolve from an American president, Trump instead offered deference, defensiveness, equivocation and weakness.

    If anyone can recall a performance by a U.S. president that rivaled the one seen around the world Monday, let them come forward. In the meantime, Trump’s extraordinary joint news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin will stand on its own, for sheer shock value and for the reality of an opportunity lost.

    Here was a president turning his back on the collective work of U.S. intelligence agencies, looking the other way at indictments returned last week by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III against 12 Russian military intelligence officers who sought to undermine American democracy during the 2016 election, and falling back as he so often has on attacks against Hillary Clinton, criticism of Democrats and boasts about the size of his electoral college victory.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-a-jaw-dropping-news-conference-what-does-america-first-really-mean/2018/07/16/2b728b12-892e-11e8-a345-a1bf7847b375_story.html?utm_term=.e7675c2ad71b

  35. EJ Dionne
    ‏Verified account @EJDionne
    2h2 hours ago

    .@RuthMarcus after today’s display by #Trump with #Putin:

    “Everyone who works for President #Trump: Quit now. Save your souls. Save your honor, such as it is.”

    Yes, it really was that bad. Can those who stay now be anything more than enablers?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/quit-now-trump-staffers-save-your-souls/2018/07/16/6529cb3a-8920-11e8-85ae-511bc1146b0b_story.html?utm_term=.04c65036bed7

  36. Who knew – milk is good for you!

    ‘Drinking full-fat milk could lead to a longer life by protecting against strokes, scientists have suggested.’

    ‘People with higher fatty acid levels, suggesting a higher consumption of whole-fat dairy products, had a 42 per cent lower risk of dying from a stroke.’

    ‘…”The fat in dairy products is what makes them satiating, and by stripping dairy products of their fat, you are also reducing the amount of Vitamin A and D that they contain. Both are crucial vitamins and both are fat-soluble, which means that they need fat to be absorbed.

    “So even when you choose low-fat dairy products that have been fortified with these vitamins, you may not even be absorbing them, due to the fact that the product has little fat left in it.”

    https://www.goodfood.com.au/good-health/fullfat-milk-could-stop-strokes-says-study-20180716-h12q9l

  38. Cat

    On the Drum last night the journalist from the Daily Telegraph declared the Kill Bill strategy dead. He said Labor is not going to change leader. They have learnt their lesson from the RGR years.

    When even one of your avowed opponents has conceded the point only fools will buy the leadership bs.

    Bill Shorten is the leader of the Labor Party and that is not going to change now.

  39. Justin Warren
    Verified account
    @jpwarren

    Right, so ADHA have embedded Google’s reCAPTCHA on the My Health Record opt-out page, which has its own Privacy and Terms of Use.

    Justin Warren
    ‏@jpwarren
    24h

    Personally I think the devs just wanted to use modern web tools to prevent bots from spamming the page, and it didn’t occur to them to think about the privacy concerns because they never do on other, less sensitive, websites.

    @jpwarren
    24h
    24 hours ago

    Which is just the kind of careful handling of sensitive data you want from a centralised national database of the entire population’s health information.

  40. PhoenixRed

    Mueller had given Trump a lifeline when the 12 indictments of Russian intelligence officers were released.
    Did Trump take the huge hint that maybe the jig was up and come clean to them at the very least.
    They would have gladly negotiated a face saving scenario on his behalf.

  41. Fulvio Sammut @ #492 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 10:11 pm

    After the ALP Urban debacle in WA, over which the coalition waxed sanctimoniously with so much faux outrage, you’d think they’d have enough smarts to check out their own candidates!

    I’m very glad a black swan has turned up in this byelection and that it may benefit Labor.

    The Urban affair was considerably worse than just lying about receiving one medal, unfortunately. Urban constructed a whole pile of lies about his past and had got away with it for years.

  42. AE

    The critical point of the commission report is economically viable.

    Despite the coal backers in the LNP jumping on it there is no solace for them. All it says is common sense. Existing coal plants will live out their economic lives. There has been no doubt in my mind on this.

    The only question is how fast renewables can replace them.

    The report totally backs Labor’s position not that of the climate deniers.

    Labor knows coal plants will not be replaced and wants to train workers to transition to the new green economy that is coming. So the report in fact says invest in coal alternatives. Thats the most of a conclusion that can be drawn from it if facts are your guide and not ideology

  43. guytaur,
    I hope the Democrats box clever with this incident in Helsinki and with Trump, because there’s one thing that the Republicans and Trump are good at and that is turning the Democrat response to anything Trump does and says against them to cause self-inflicted wounds.

  44. The next question is how many GOP reps and senators are compromised.
    Their chance now to make deals with the DOJ.
    Trump can’t save their sorry arses

  47. grimace,
    I think the point you are overlooking is that Trevor Ruthenberg wants to be a federal parliamentarian and so a higher standard of truthfulness should be applied to his candidacy. I know every candidate should be truthful about their past, but you get what I mean, I hope.

    Also, Ruthenberg was an MP in Newman’s government and had that information on his public profile, so that makes it almost the same as Barry Urban’s crime in my book. Both middle-aged men who wanted to get into politics by making us think they were braver than they actually were.

  48. Victoria @ #44 Tuesday, July 17th, 2018 – 6:00 am

    The next question is how many GOP reps and senators are compromised.
    Their chance now to make deals with the DOJ.
    Trump can’t save their sorry arses

    I was surprised to see Paul Ryan criticise the Trump-Putin meeting. Then again he’s retiring so he doesn’t have to blow smoke up Trump’s ass.

  50. Cat

    Yes. Starting with the Democrats saying they can’t vote for the nomination of a Supreme Court Justice who has been nominated by an illegitimate President practising treason.

    Its exactly wha the right would say if the reverse was happening. That with looking at ways of getting his last pick to resign

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