Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A slight narrowing in the Labor lead brings Essential Research’s two-party result in line with Newspoll’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll for The Guardian has Labor’s two-party lead down from 52-48 to 51-49. Primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full results later today. A series of findings on energy policy offer something for everybody. Eighty per cent favoured an inquiry into the contribution of power companies to high power prices; 63% thought energy companies should be returned to public ownership; 61% believing burning coal causes climate change; and 55% thought expanding coal mining would undermine efforts to address it. However, 47% thought coal-fired power cheaper than that from renewables; 40% supported the call by some Nationals for $5 billion to be spent on coal plants, with 38% opposed. Thirty-eight per cent thought the government should prioritise renewables over coal, 16% thought the opposite, and 34% thought they should be treated equally.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. The Washington Post editorial calls it openly colluding.

    THE ENDURING image of the U.S.-Russia summit in Helsinki on Monday will be that of President Trump standing next to Vladi­mir Putin and suggesting he found Mr. Putin’s “powerful” denial at least as persuasive as the U.S. intelligence community’s unanimous finding that Russia intervened in the 2016 election. Coupled with another groundless attack on the FBI and an apparent endorsement of a patently disingenuous offer by Mr. Putin to collaborate with the investigation of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, Mr. Trump appeared to align himself with the Kremlin against American law enforcement before the Russian ruler and a global audience.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trump-just-put-russia-first/2018/07/16/8391f9aa-8914-11e8-a345-a1bf7847b375_story.html?utm_term=.90b1036ef094

  2. Victoria @ #45 Tuesday, July 17th, 2018 – 8:02 am

    C@t

    Won’t matter much what the dems say, justice is coming for the traitors.
    It will all speak for itself.

    I’m not so confident. Trump is stacking the Supreme Court, especially the latest, butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth guy, who has an opinion that the President is above the law!

    And Trump and Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party will take it all the way to the Supreme Court, you can guarantee that much.

  3. Andrew_Earlwood @ #10 Tuesday, July 17th, 2018 – 5:01 am

    “What kind of moron thinks coal-fired power cheaper than that from renewables which is free? F*&^ me I’m buggered…”

    When talking about NEW power stations, you are absolutely correct. If you are talking about the costs of operating existing coal-fired power stations vs establishing new renewable eneergy power, the equation is not so clear cut because its not a straight up ‘apples with apples’ comparision. Most of the existing coal fired power stations have already been paid for (and those sold off to private enterprise were mostly amortised).

    So the cost equation side of the comparsion is coal, plus labour, plus mainatenance, plus amortrisation of capital (if any). The cost equation on the otherside is mainly the capital costs assaociated with replacing existing sources of energy (huge, even when amortised) plus some fairly small running and maintenence costs.

    There is a cost adavantage in keeping existing CFPS running, but not replacing them, as the market invests in new technologies. having quickly read the Crowe article in today’s Fairfax I suspect there is a very good case to keep existing CFPS running until thge end of their expected life until about 2040 (because of the number of CFPS due to retire over that period that would still equate to a substantial reduction in emissions over the same period) before starting the countdown clock running in 2040 to decommission the rest by 2050.

    So long as we dont build any new CFPS then that would leave us with effective zero emmissions in the electrcity sector by 2050 – with or without P1s plans to also use Gas as a transitional fuel over the same period. Which is what we want. However, if some of the storage technology delivers big time over the next 10-15 years (i.e. pumped hydro) then the decommissioning clock could probably be brought forward by up to 10 years and we could be at zero emmissions (in the electricity sector) by about 2040.

    The company I work for does maintenance services on coal fired and gas fired power stations, and I’m responsible for the bill getting sent.

    CFPS cost a fortune to maintain from day one. Gas fired stations, even old ones, take very little maintenance.

    I was recently at a meeting at one of those CFPS (a large, older station) and the client told us what their total yearly spend on maintenance was. I was stunned, I knew it would be a lot, the actual number was eye-watering.

    With the continued drop in renewable prices, older coal plants are not going to make it to end of life. Compared to renewables, the maintenance costs alone will make them uneconomic.

  4. I’m just hoping Reince Priebus has spilled his guts to Mueller. He would never have gotten the job of Chief of Staff with Trump without watching the bodies get buried along the way.

  5. Whoa! From a former RNC President.

    Michael SteeleVerified account@MichaelSteele
    6h6 hours ago
    “My people came to me…they said they think it’s Russia. I have President Putin. He just said it’s not Russia. I will say this, I don’t see any reason why it would be.”
    –Trump

    That’s how a press conference sounds when an Asset stands next to his Handler.

  6. Confessions says: Tuesday, July 17, 2018 at 8:05 am

    Victoria @ #44 Tuesday, July 17th, 2018 – 6:00 am

    The next question is how many GOP reps and senators are compromised.
    Their chance now to make deals with the DOJ.
    Trump can’t save their sorry arses

    I was surprised to see Paul Ryan criticise the Trump-Putin meeting. Then again he’s retiring so he doesn’t have to blow smoke up Trump’s ass.

    ******************************************************

    Like Victoria said – how many GOP reps and senators are compromised ?

    I think Ryan, McConnell, Pence are on Muellers hit list – along with another bunch of GOPs who took cash through money laundering schemes like the NRA .etc …..

  7. Cat

    The Fox reaction tells you that Trump has most likely lost Murdoch’s media empire. Rupert may have no worries about backing Trump and Putin all the way but his children who have been taking more control may not be so wiling to sacrifice their business for Putin

  9. And from a former Deputy AG.

    Sally YatesVerified account@SallyQYates
    2h2 hours ago
    Our President today not only chose a tyrant over his own Intel community, he chose Russia’s interests over the country he is sworn to protect. All Americans should raise their voices. Let the world know what we stand for.

  11. I would have thought a long serving ADF member would be incapable of confusing one medal for another. It’d be a bit like a normal citizen saying they thought their car license was the same as a truck license.

  12. Yep. And it could happen to a nicer bunch

    John Schindler
    John Schindler
    @20committee
    ·
    2h
    You know what decent, patriotic pols & lobbyists do when they’re approached by a smooth-talking Russian offering cooperation and nebulous Kremlin “help”?

    Call the FBI. At once.

    If you don’t, you expose yourself to the predicament the NRA, GOP & RNC are in right now over Butina.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Is Trump paying the piper or what? He has publicly dismissed his own intelligence reports on Russian meddling in the 2016 US presidential election, saying he preferred to believe Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “extremely strong and powerful” denial.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/i-don-t-see-any-reason-why-russia-would-meddle-trump-says-after-putin-meeting-20180717-p4zruk.html
    Matthew Knott explains how the Trump-Putin summit has left US leaders aghast.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/treasonous-trump-putin-summit-leaves-us-leaders-aghast-20180717-p4zrul.html
    Richard Wolffe writes that Trump outdoes Orwell in role as Moscow’s Agent Orange.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/16/trump-putin-orwell-moscow-agent-orange
    Meanwhile a Russian national with alleged ties to a top Russian official was charged in federal court in Washington on Monday with conspiracy to act as an agent of the Russian Federation, and was ordered held without bond.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/russian-nra-member-arrested-by-us-for-conspiracy-20180717-p4zrup.html
    IMF, the global financial watchdog, has urged governments to start putting money away in light of the US-China trade dispute.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/start-putting-your-money-away-imf-s-stark-warning-on-trump-tariffs-20180716-p4zrq1.html
    Here’s the Guardian’s run down on the Essential poll results.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/17/voters-back-energy-inquiry-as-labor-lead-slips-slightly-guardian-essential-poll
    David Crowe reports that Australian households must prepare for a mammoth overhaul of the nation’s electricity grid as investment surges into renewable energy, sparking a new call to keep coal-fired power stations running for decades to help with the transition.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/energy-plan-keeps-the-coal-fires-burning-as-long-as-possible-20180716-p4zrtd.html
    According to Mungo MacCallum Latham, Hanson and Leyonhjelm are ‘The Three Stooges’ incarnate, but they are indicative of Australia’s current dysfunctional phase of politics.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mungo-maccallum-latham-hanson-and-leyonhjelm-will-end-in-tears,11698
    “It was an honest mistake”, says the Liberal candidate for Longman. Yeah. Of course we believe you!
    https://outline.com/ShGmMT
    The auditor-general has hit back at a gag order placed on him by the Treasurer in the lead up to May’s budget, saying he has received legal advice that he should have been able to tell a parliamentary committee about cuts to the office’s budget.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/auditor-general-hits-back-at-treasurer-s-pre-budget-gag-20180711-p4zqs6.html
    An interesting contribution from Peter Hartcher on it will have to be a US alliance that will hold China in check in the 21st century.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-powerful-combination-that-gives-us-the-edge-over-china-20180716-p4zrqn.html
    Scott Morrison has warned the deepening US tariff war with China could derail a global economy that has finally shaken off the effects of the financial crisis and has directly challenged Donald Trump’s view that countries can win trade wars. Fair enough.
    https://outline.com/jy5SkE
    Infrastructure Australia chief Philip Davies says the nation’s population is growing in the absence of long-term planning and government control, warning the country needs to “wake ourselves up” and decide what we want our future cities and lifestyles to look like.
    https://outline.com/Frbpfw
    Victoria’s equal opportunity and human rights commissioner has said a resurgence in the number of reports of racially motivated incidents in the state is linked to sensationalised media coverage of an “African gangs crisis”. Hardly surprising.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/16/rise-in-reported-racial-incidents-linked-to-sensationalised-african-gangs-coverage
    Anny Patty tells us that today Bill Shorten will pledge to introduce new laws to ensure labour hire workers receive the same pay and conditions as those who are employed directly.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/second-class-citizens-alp-pledge-to-lift-pay-for-labour-hire-workers-20180716-p4zrqp.html
    And John Durie says that the big wage gap shows that corporates don’t get the message.
    https://outline.com/PHLn7k
    Meanwhile Domino’s Pizza’s Don Meij has risen to become Australia’s highest paid CEO, taking home $36.84 million last year.
    https://outline.com/g5Lssr
    David Crowe reports that Labor is demanding the release of more details about the Turnbull government’s appointment of key economic officials last week, escalating its attack on decisions it says have politicised the public service.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/labor-demands-answers-on-political-promotions-to-economic-roles-20180716-p4zrrh.html
    What an under-resourced mess Centrelink has become!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/five-months-and-no-age-pension-centrelink-delays-not-acceptable-20180715-p4zrlx.html
    Stephen Koukoulas says that if the flow of punter’s money is any guide, Labor are in for a very rough time on Sublime-Saturday on 28 July when there are five by-elections around Australia.
    https://thekouk.com/item/621-punters-point-to-by-election-troubles-for-labor.html
    From Donald Trump to Theresa May, a powerful U.S.-UK network lobbies behind the scenes for climate science denial.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/exposing-the-climate-science-denial-network-behind-trump-and-may,11696
    Ben Grubb is opting out of the digital health records scheme and tells us why we should be too.
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/why-i-m-opting-out-of-the-government-s-digital-health-record-and-you-should-too-20180715-p4zrna.html
    Here’s the case for staying in it.
    https://theconversation.com/my-health-record-the-case-for-opting-in-99850
    Jenna Price bemoans the fact that middle children are becoming rarer in Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-middle-ground-one-for-mum-one-for-dad-and-one-for-a-decent-society-20180716-h12qhn.html
    Amazon Australia has upped the ante on local retailers by slashing prices by as much as 70 per cent during its first Prime Day promotion.
    https://outline.com/ZaMaa6
    Karen Maley thinks the country’s top bankers will likely be forced to raise rates within weeks, despite the potentially injurious consequences.
    https://outline.com/SZ9KcY
    But Greg Jericho says a slowing housing market, slow wage growth and low inflation mean the cash rate will stay at 1.5%
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jul/17/forget-the-calls-for-interest-rates-rises-the-reserve-bank-wont-budge-yet
    Phil Coorey says that While most attention ahead of super Saturday is focused on the marginal Labor seats of Longman and Braddon, the Liberal Party has not given up hope of snatching back the Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo – but not until the next federal election.
    https://outline.com/uqZGn3
    Organisers behind alt-right mouthpiece Milo Yiannopoulos’ Melbourne event have so far refused to cough up the $50,000 bill for extra police resources used after violent protests broke out at his show last year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/milo-yiannopoulos-and-tour-organisers-yet-to-pay-50k-bill-for-extra-police-at-show-20180716-p4zrua.html
    Michael West’s website explores how deeply corporate conflicts run deep in the aged care industry.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/aged-care-corporate-conflicts-run-deep/
    Jennifer Hewett writes that Theresa May no longer has to contend with Donald Trump embarrassing her on British soil. Now she just has to cope with her fellow Britons.
    https://outline.com/dWwAzj
    Zoe Williams says Brexit has hit peak confusion. A new vote is the solution,
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/16/brexit-vote-opinion-polls-referendum-election
    New York governor Andrew Cuomo’s office on Monday unveiled an investigation into claims the family-run firm of Donald Trump’s son-in-law and White House adviser Jared Kushner tried to harass tenants out of an apartment building in a fashionable section of Brooklyn.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/16/jared-kushner-firm-investigated-over-tenant-harassment-claims-new-york
    The new national housing agreement won’t achieve its goals without enough funding.
    https://theconversation.com/the-new-national-housing-agreement-wont-achieve-its-goals-without-enough-funding-99936
    Here’s someone aspiring to “Arsehole of the Week” honours.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/councillor-intaj-khan-convicted-over-lack-of-disclosure-20180716-p4zrq7.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe’s view of the Trump-Putin “meeting”.

    Peter Broelman prepares for the summit in Helsinki.

    Sean Leahy summarises the polls.

    A good effort from Paul Zanetti.

    Glen Le Lievre sums up SkyNews.

    Here are some Fairfax cartoons. Cathy Wilcox has been in great form lately!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-july-17-2018-20180716-h12rk7.html

  14. Confessions says: Tuesday, July 17, 2018 at 8:15 am

    phoenixRed:

    The unhinged questioning of Strzok said to me they know what’s coming and are trying to stop it.

    ****************************************************

    The behaviour of clowns like Nunes and Gowdy at that hearing gave an insight into the signs of panic that its all starting to unravel for them ….. and their time in the box is coming …..

  15. guytaur,
    In this long piece about Murdoch in The Monthly:
    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2018/july/1530367200/richard-cooke/endless-reign-rupert-murdoch?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Sunday%20Reads%20-%2015%20July%202018&utm_content=Sunday%20Reads%20-%2015%20July%202018+CID_1e5350285ec215201664b0521a86165d&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=The%20endless%20reign%20of%20Rupert%20Murdoch

    it is stated that Murdoch may be showing signs of senescence whilst still trying to maintain control of his rapidly-diminishing empire. So I imagine that there is a tussle going on there between Lachlan and Rupert. It was also stated that Lachlan has felt confident enough to occupy Rupert’s chair at Board meetings recently, a once unthinkable act. So maybe he has let Fox News anchors say what they really think today? I hope so.

  19. I think thanks to the historic Helsinki Summit Impeachment is now inevitable for Trump.

    Its just a question of how long can the GOP hold out. While he may be retiring Paul Ryan has belled the cat for the GOP they must choose. Trump or survival as a party.

    America First voters betrayed by the Russian First US President.

  21. Confessions says: Tuesday, July 17, 2018 at 8:23 am

    phoenixRed:

    Leah McElrath@leahmcelrath
    2h2 hours ago
    HOLY SH*T:

    In Oct 2016, @NRA President David Keene bragged in an email to an acquaintance about his “VERY private line of communication between the Kremlin” and REPUBLICAN PARTY LEADERS:

    ************************************************

    Confessions – Yep ……. its going to be an indictment/subpoena picnic when Robert Mueller goes over the top with his team.

    These traitorous bastards think they got away with it but as John Schindler said : Mueller. Knows. Everything

  22. guytaur,
    Impeachment will only come if Americans stop sleepwalking into Putin and Xi’s hands and vote in the Mid Term elections for the Democrats, as imperfect as they are.

    The same applies to Trump appeasers, the Turnbull Coalition, in Australia. Around the world we need to start voting for governments like Jacinda Ardern’s in New Zealand. Principled. And proud of it.

  25. Cat

    I agree with you about the Adern Government.

    However I think the sleepwalking has stopped. This contrast is too stark

    The CNN situation room tweeted 1 hour ago

    Who do you trust? The American intelligence community? Or Vladimir Putin?

    Sen Rand Paul: “All power needs to have checks and balances … I think our intelligence community has way too much power” https://cnn.it/2zJSt3l https://twitter.com/CNNSitRoom/status/1018969700783607808/video/1

  26. How many gun-toting, middle class, god-fearing White Americans will want to stand with Trump, and behind him at his rallies, now?

  27. guytaur,
    Yes, I heard Rand Paul say that! He stands with Trump and Putin against the American Intelligence community! Another treasonous traitor.

  34. “It was an honest mistake”, says the Liberal candidate for Longman. Yeah. Of course we believe you!

    Well I for one believe it was an honest mistake. He honestly did believe he would get away with such bullshit.

  36. You know the system is more than broken when the boss of a pizza chain is the nations highest paid CEO at the same time his company is being investigated for wage theft by its franchisees.

    Where did we go so wrong?

  37. Did anyone really think that Trump was going to do a 180 degree turn when he met with Putin in Helsinki.
    He has been predictable and consistent in his fealty towards Putin. Nothing has changed. The fact that it is only becoming obvious to many now is quite amusing.

  38. Rossmcg

    Good business practice is to make as much money for company. Even, If this involves stealing from its own workforce.
    You know it makes sense

  40. Rossmcg @ #85 Tuesday, July 17th, 2018 – 8:48 am

    You know the system is more than broken when the boss of a pizza chain is the nations highest paid CEO at the same time his company is being investigated for wage theft by its franchisees.

    Where did we go so wrong?

    And Labor is coming for the Labour Hire companies that are the enablers of the bastardry at the heart of it!

  42. Lenore Taylor
    ‏Verified account @lenoretaylor
    43m43 minutes ago

    No wage stagnation here….Australian top executive pay up 12% and bonuses up 18%, survey finds

  44. I think the new approach to crime is worth investigating – have a one on one interview with the accused, if they tell you they’re innocent, you let them off.

    It will save millions in legal costs.

  45. Seriously guys
    As Observer pointed out yesterday, we have a more important things to do in our country than talk about Trump. It is not as if he is starting a war with Europe or Russia and involving us. We could not do anything about him even if we want to.
    Here, polls are tightening, by-elections are due in 11 days, which ALP has to win. We have the NBN, big business tax cuts, no wage increases, MSM assault on ALP and Shorten. What is the ground situation in Longman and Braddon? We have preference deal between LNP and PHONy in Longman

  46. ‘…months before the Federal election.’

    Well, that’s a big assumption.

    Alternative headline: “A year before…”

  47. Plenty of folks comparing Trump with Neville Chamberlain. Of course Trump likely doesn’t know who Neville Chamberlain is, so is unlikely to be bothered by the comparison.

  50. Guytaur
    Impeachment?
    Seriously Trump should just hitch a ride to the Kremlin and join the other traitor, Snowden.
    Would be best outcome.

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