Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A slight narrowing in the Labor lead brings Essential Research’s two-party result in line with Newspoll’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll for The Guardian has Labor’s two-party lead down from 52-48 to 51-49. Primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full results later today. A series of findings on energy policy offer something for everybody. Eighty per cent favoured an inquiry into the contribution of power companies to high power prices; 63% thought energy companies should be returned to public ownership; 61% believing burning coal causes climate change; and 55% thought expanding coal mining would undermine efforts to address it. However, 47% thought coal-fired power cheaper than that from renewables; 40% supported the call by some Nationals for $5 billion to be spent on coal plants, with 38% opposed. Thirty-eight per cent thought the government should prioritise renewables over coal, 16% thought the opposite, and 34% thought they should be treated equally.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Nicholas @ #2097 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 10:38 pm

    Criticising a regional power for doing the same thing that any regional power would do in that situation is a waste of time.

    It is more useful to focus on those topics where there are mutually rewarding agreements to be made. Expecting Russia to be okay with losing its only only warm water port and its buffer against the Middle East “because UN Charter” or “because Westphalia” is naive and silly. No regional power puts the UN Charter above its own viability as a state.

    Western powers don’t base their foreign policies on the UN charter or the Treaty of Westphalia. They identify their interests and do what they can to advance them. All global and regional powers do that.

    Spot on Nicholas.
    The US ignores every UN treaty and always has. But because it is powerful most people bow down to it and say goody, Most people obey the school bully.

  2. dtt

    And what is your point? Are you suggesting I’m not critical of the US? I have been most of my life.

    The take out from tonight’s discussion seems to be that there’s no point anyone discussing foreign relations at all – countries will do what they want to do, they must have good reasons for doing whatever it is they’re doing, we all should let them get on with it and mind our own business.

    Very insular thinking.

  3. …we should, as Australians, be able to criticise other countries from an Australian perspective, without being expected to do the kind of balance the media seems to think obligatory.

    I’m able to criticise both the US and Russia. I would expect most people on this blog are capable of doing the same.

    I’m able to make criticisms of Russia and be aware that the US is also culpable. I shouldn’t have to spell this out.

    I assume that next time someone criticises the US, in the interests of fairness, dtt et al will be quick to point out that Russia isn’t any better.

  4. Kisses Lovey.

    Interesting thing about that article you linked Lovey is just how fucked the Russian economy is. The international order that Putin despises as being a western plot actually offers a path for Russia to unlock its potential for the actual benefit of its people, but Putin gives zero fucks about that. He’d rather peddle religio-fascism, nationalism and xenophobia to maintain absolute control.

    The need for living space, to ‘secure existing strategic assets’, a warm water port, blah, blah, are symptoms of a paranoid regime that has given up on securing a place in the future for its country and people on its own merits.

    You can point the finger at America all you want. That kind of moral relativism won’t wash. Especially if one has already concluded that America has also squandered the opportunity it had to transition from the American century to the Asian century and securing a future for itself as it went. Mainly because it failed to seize the opportunity to write the 21st rules WITH China. No President since Bush senior has had a clue about managing that inevitable reality. More fool them. In short America is also fucked up. Trump has killed the last opportunity to deal itself a good hand with his petulant withdraw from the TPP and his stupid trade wars. So what. That makes Putin and his regime ‘understandable’ and somehow ‘ok’. Hardly.

  5. dtt – comparing Libya and Iraq to Ukraine and Georgia? Wow. Just wow.. even accounting for the fact I was active in denouncing the invasion of Iraq and uncomfortable with the bombing and regime change of Libya.

    Nicholas II

    No regional power puts the UN Charter above its own viability as a state.

    The viability of Russia as a state is not under threat by external actors.

    Western powers don’t base their foreign policies on the UN charter or the Treaty of Westphalia.

    Yes they do. Its called International Relations Liberalism and both came into being after wars so horrific that they tore apart the fabric of the human race. In seeing it, leaders recognised there was a better way.

    They identify their interests and do what they can to advance them.

    They do. And it is in Russia’s interest to stop interfering in other countries internal affairs and instead improve the lot of its people by cooperating with its neighbours and forging greater trade and diplomatic alliances with Europe. Believing they live in a world of competitive powers, surrounded by threats, a game to be won or lost is a dead end street to the bad old days.

  6. “Spot on Nicholas.
    The US ignores every UN treaty and always has. But because it is powerful most people bow down to it and say goody, Most people obey the school bully.”

    This is just bullshit and frankly dangerous. I’m not disputing that America doesn’t ‘bend the rules’, even break them from time to time. However I’d also strongly argue that the UN Charter and the attempts to create a genuine rules based order has been largely successful in constraining the worst tendencies and excesses of most nation states, including the US. The world walks away from that at its extreme peril.

  7. Nicholas instead of fucking people over for the sake of a warm water port, one can also actually be friendly and have good neighbours with a warm water port. No, Russia did not have to. And yes, Putin really is a disgusting, dangerous, violent thug.

  8. zoomster @ #2103 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 10:53 pm

    dtt

    And what is your point? Are you suggesting I’m not critical of the US? I have been most of my life.

    The take out from tonight’s discussion seems to be that there’s no point anyone discussing foreign relations at all – countries will do what they want to do, they must have good reasons for doing whatever it is they’re doing, we all should let them get on with it and mind our own business.

    Very insular thinking.

    Zoomster

    Simple answer is YES.

    I have never yet seen you apply an objective analysis to anything the US has done, in Iraq, Syria etc. When they interfere in democratic processes of other countries it is OK and you do not comment. You reserve your hatred and censure for Russia. You are an old school anti communist Russia phobe.

    You never comment of the obvious destabilising role the US played in Ukraine or indeed Georgia. You never adversely commented on their obvious SUPPORT for ISIS affiliated “rebels”, you never quibble about their support for the murderous Saudis and then there is sacrosanct Israel which is able to murder oppress and segregate by race with cheerful immunity.

    You are of course not alone on this blog. But please do not say you are concerned, Where is the evidence?

    No zoomster it is not about ignoring what others do. It is about thinking objectively and strategically.

    You look at every nationaand assess what is their existential needs. What are the things which threaten them sufficiently to go to war. What are the things for which their population will risk their lives.

    In the cas of the USA essentially it is the Gulf of Mexico and central America. If Canada were hostile then the Great lakes would be strategic hot points but not right now. The USA is particularly lucky It has rich resources and two huge coastlines. its only really vilnerable states are Hawai and Alaska.

    For us in Australia our problems mostly relate to fuel supply and tho the extents we no longer make anything then all trade routes. The route from Singapore to Darwin is our most sensitive point as Is Indonesia, PNG and probably increasingly the Pacific Islands. Just as in WWII Thursday Island nd the Torres Strait is a strategic cholke point. Fortunately we have three very large coast lines. We are also dependent upon oil from the Middle east do we have issues in the Indian Ocean. Given just about everything we use is made in China we have interest also in the route from China to Australia. NZ is not a current threat. (would we be traitors if we encouraged Jacinda to invade and take us over. Hmmm!

    Now for Russia they have a major strategic problem. They have since the time of Catherine the Great. They need access to a warm water port so they can trade. So for Russia Sevastopol is a strategic ESSENTIAL. Not really an option for it to be in unfriendly hands. If an enemy or unfriendly powers such as NATO controlled Crimea, essentially Russia would not survive.

    its second strategic issue (along with many other countries is the Bosporus. That is why having a base in Syria is critical. Threats to close the Bosporus to Russian ships would be catastrophic.

    its third is the Caspian sea. Enemies along that coastline are an existential threat. Russia will go to war to prevent it.Its fourth problem is the Baltic and its fifth Vladivostok. its sixth is just the ice and snow of the Arctic. Then there is also China the various Stans Mongolia and NK. And all this is before you get to consider Ukraine or Georgia. They have an awful lot of sensitive choke points.

    There was a reason the Tsars invaded all those countries to form the Russian empire.

  9. Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #2109 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 11:16 pm

    Nicholas instead of fucking people over for the sake of a warm water port, one can also actually be friendly and have good neighbours with a warm water port. No, Russia did not have to. And yes, Putin really is a disgusting, dangerous, violent thug.

    Pseudo
    Good relations with Ukraine were exactly what they DID have and for 24 years they successfully and peacefully rented the port at Sevastapol. However when a Neo Nazi regime was installed by the USA. that option was no longer possible.

    Get real fella. If China controls every access point to the Torres strait I think I could see autralia getting a little thuggish.

    Bu the way how many people have died in that “thuggish takeover” Compared with the US invasion even of Grenada it is a damage free takeover. Georgia a little more but really accusations of thuggery are childish and ignorant and emotional.

    Be fair and reasonable if you possibly can and rank Russian aggression next to other countries especially ourselves and our allies.

    I posted the KPIs. Do it fairly and THEN come back to me and discuss thuggery. However since you are a paid up member of the USA fan club (is that treasonous) you will not.

  10. Nicholas instead of fucking people over for the sake of a warm water port

    The people of Crimea weren’t fucked over by Russia. They align themselves with Russia. They feared being fucked over by a pro-EU and pro-NATO Ukrainian regime, which is why they welcomed Russia’s armed forces.

    Why do you imply that a warm water port is a trivial matter? All of Russia’s other ports are in waters that are frozen for several months every year, which is a major constraint on Russia’s navy. It makes sense that they saw a great need to preserve their access to that port in Sevastopol.

    It isn’t expansionist to preserve what you already have.

  11. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2107 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 11:06 pm

    “Spot on Nicholas.
    The US ignores every UN treaty and always has. But because it is powerful most people bow down to it and say goody, Most people obey the school bully.”

    This is just bulsshit and frankly dangerous. I’m not duputing that America doesn’t ‘bend the rules’, even break them from time to time. However I’d also strongly argue that the UN Charter and the attempts to create a genuine rules based order has been largely successful in constraining the worst tendencies and excesses of most nation states, including the US. The world walks away from that at its extreme peril.

    Has it Andrew

    I think that several million Vietnamese 2 million North Koreans, A million of so Iraqis, half a million Serbians l, Grenadians just might disagree. What has the US done to fix Palestine, or Yemen or even the endless African conflicts.

    What you really mean is that since the UN got going no bombs have landed on ourselves or out allies. Forget about al those other mostly brown or yellow ded people. They do not count.Yea the UN.

    The UN has been good for some humanitarian stuff, but has been pretty useless at stopping conflict.
    Can you tell me just how the US has been constrained by the UN.I think the answer is never.

    You think it works because it allows the school bully to run the show and you are besties with the bully. Pity about the little kids who have their heads stuck in the toilet.

  12. Under a rules based system a landlocked, or limited sea access country can negotiate with its neighbors for access to the sea for trade and even military purposes. Guess what. Russia and Ukraine did exactly that under the Kharkov Accords, first entered into in 1991, reaffirmed in 1997 and extended to 2042 in 2010. After the pro Russian Ukrainian government fell Putin just said ‘fuck it, the lease costs are too high, I’ll just take it’. Much jingoism and nationalism chest thumping ensured in Moscow. Peter Dutton would be envious. Of course the international sanctions cost Russia much more than the lease costs, but hey, the Oligarchs didn’t suffer personally. Only the poors. Silly poors. Have another vodka comrade…

    Anyhow, the point is, a country with the natural assets and intellectual know how that the Soviet Union bequeathed Russia wouldn’t be acting like a local bully if it was led by a government that gave more fucks about the future of the country than merely maintaining absolute internal control, rewarding its cronies and feeding its own Cold War paranoia.

  13. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2114 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 11:40 pm

    Under a rules based system a landlocked, or limited sea access country can negotiate with its neighbors for access to the sea for trade and even military purposes. Guess what. Russia and Ukraine did exactly that under the Kharkov Accords, first entered into in 1991, reaffirmed in 1997 and extended to 2042 in 2010. After the pro Russian Ukrainian government fell Putin just said ‘fuck it, the lease costs are too high, I’ll just it’. Much jingoism and nationalism chest thumping ensured in Moscow. Peter Dutton would be envious. Of course the international sanctions cost Russia much more than the lease costs, but hey, the Oligarchs didn’t suffer personally. Only the poors. Silly poors. Have another vodka comrade…

    Not so Andrew.
    It was not a matter of the pro Russian government falling but the installation of an ANTI Russian government.many of who were actually real life NAZIs. That government planned to ban the use of Russian as a national language even for use in schools. They planned to join the EU and NATO.

    Now since NATO’s sole purpose is to counter Russia it is absurd to t think that Russia could have continued to rent Sevastapol if Ukraine joined NATO. Please think just a teensy bit strategically from the other point of view. Would you be happy if Sydney Harbour was fully controlled by Indonesia and say China had control of Darwin and Townsville and Perth and Adelaide and Brisbane.. We only had Melbourne and Hobart. However we still had to provide services to all the inland areas and most of the coastal areas.

  14. Believing they live in a world of competitive powers, surrounded by threats

    The world DOES have competitive powers, and Russia DOES face external threats. Any further eastwards expansion of NATO would reduce Russia’s capacity to defend itself. In 1990 and 1991 the United States and its European allies assured Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand eastwards of a reunified Germany; they broke that promise many times. Why would you expect Russia to accept pro-western regimes and potential NATO membership for Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova in light of that breach of faith? The western powers would never voluntarily accept an equivalent weakening of their strategic position, especially after a series of broken promises by their strategic rivals.

    Russia has been invaded by the Poles, the Swedes, the British, the French (twice), the Turks, the Germans (twice). Understandably they do not want to be vulnerable again, particularly after the western powers acted in bad faith on the issue of NATO’s future after the Cold War.

    Regional powers compete over control of natural resources, access to sea lanes, trade with foreign markets, development of military and industrial technology, the rights of their diasporas, influence over other nations, among other things. The international system IS competitive. That is a basic fact of world politics.

  15. Putin’s concern is that with the fracture of the USSR his borders are now surrounded by NATO Nations which he views as as intimidatory as does North Korea with the USA presence on its borders

    Hence the manipulation of Trump to denounce NATO and any resultant weakening of NATO and their defence capacity then a fracture with the prospect of compliant Nations on the Russian borders from previously NATO Nations

    Russia has a nuclear capacity – among the Nations with the highest numbers of war heads

    Ditto North Korea and the Trump declaration that the USA will save money by withdrawing from that theatre

    Both the leaders of Russia and North Korea have seen Trump saying America are no longer going to spend to prop up historic Treaties and those Nations have to increase their defence spending and that is the catalyst for what is being reported – they have listened to Trump and played him accordingly in regards their concerns over their borders

    As Packer said, there is only one Allan Bond

    There is only one Tronald Drump – and he is being played like a fiddle to the dismay of the former allies of the USA

    Australia should stay very well clear and especially if Drump seeks assistance in his endeavours in regard China – a Nation also concerned by its borders and alliances around its borders – hence its concentrations in trade routes – because China’s absolute focus and need is Trade using its military and nuclear capacity as a deterrent only

  16. Russia is not vulnerable. 2000 active nuclear warheads and a million regular soldiers. Safe from external actors. Said it once, now said it twice. Three times and I turn into bettleguese.

  17. Correct Simon. Russia is safe from external threats to its borders. It’s not safe from its own leadership however.

  18. The reason that Eastern European nations joined NATO was than they had been under the control of the Russian dominated USSR for 45 years and decided they wanted no more of that and NATO is an organisation 100% successful in keeping the USSR/Russia from dominating its members with military force.

  19. Confessions says:
    Friday, July 20, 2018 at 9:12 pm
    Thanks Mari, I had to really look at that Rowe. I think he’s referencing the second Trump-Putin summit.

    Sorry been out for lunch. It is maccas Trump orders it all the time. Did you see liberty cowering, not sure what liberty is holding?

  20. This should be good…

    Cohen also appears to have sat down for another television interview to be broadcast this weekend. The Rev Al Sharpton, host of MSNBC’s Sunday show PoliticsNation tweeted on Friday: “Just spent an hour w/ Michael Cohen, Trump’s former attorney. I bet you’re wondering what we could be talking about! Stay tuned.”

  21. ‘Lordy, there were tapes!’: Internet taken aback over revelation that Cohen recorded Trump talking about ‘hush money’

    Moments after the New York Times reported that the FBI has a recording of Donald Trump and his longtime “fixer” Michael Cohen discussing a “hush money” payout to a Playboy model, Twitter went into a virtual meltdown over the news.

    “Lordy, there were tapes,” Texas Tribune CEO Evan Smith tweeted, echoing former FBI director James Comey’s famous line during his congressional testimony about his firing by Trump last year.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/lordy-tapes-internet-taken-aback-revelation-cohen-recorded-trump-talking-hush-money/

  22. Michael Avenatti: Cohen hoarded tapes of Trump — and they’re ‘a very, very bad thing for the president’

    In his first interview since the New York Times broke the news that the FBI has a recording of Donald Trump and his longtime “fixer” Michael Cohen discussing a payout to a Playboy model, Stormy Daniels’ attorney Michael Avenatti said the reports justify his months-long call to release what he dubbed the “Trump Tapes” back in May.

    “I know for a fact this is not the only tape,” the attorney told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell. “I think that this is a very serious matter, and I think that any and all audiotapes that Michael Cohen has in his possession relating to this president should be released immediately for the benefit of the American people so that they can decide what happens next.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/michael-avenatti-cohen-hoarded-tapes-trump-theyre-bad-thing-president/

  23. Giuliani confirms more Cohen tapes are coming — and Trump feels betrayed

    Donald Trump’s attorney Rudy Giuliani confirmed in a statement to CNN that the president’s longtime “fixer” Michael Cohen had other recordings seized by the FBI in wake of the news that the bureau had a tape of the president and his former attorney discussing a payout to Playboy model in 2016.

    “The president said ‘I can’t believe Michael would do this with me,’” the statement, read by host John King, noted. “Michael Cohen has other recordings in his records that were seized by the FBI.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/giuliani-confirms-cohen-tapes-coming-trump-feels-betrayed/

  24. The Rebellion Against Trump Grows As Conservative Columnist Says He Would Take Obama Back In A Nanosecond

    Conservative columnist Max Boot who worked on the Republican campaigns of 2008 and 2012 wrote that he would take Obama back in a nanosecond over Trump.

    Boot wrote in The Washington Post:

    Now I would take Obama back in a nanosecond. His presidency appears to be a lost golden age when reason and morality reigned. All of his faults, real as they were, fade into insignificance compared with the crippling defects of his successor. And his strengths — seriousness, dignity, intellect, probity, dedication to ideals larger than self — shine all the more clearly in retrospect.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/07/20/conservative-obama-nanosecond.html

  25. Counterchekist
    Counterchekist
    @counterchekist
    ·
    2h
    Important thread calling out the latest tRUmp/Kremlin obfuscation theme of “Everyone does it, so why do you care!?” for the total nonsense it is. Facts matter, as do the security & sanctity of our elections. #MAGA
    John Schindler
    @20committee
    Time for a tweetstorm on the realities of covert action and influence ops in elections. Since Trumpers are now citing the “Everybody does it” line regarding what Russia and its friends did to the USA in 2016 to help put Trump in the WH. So, here’s some espionage #realtalk…/1
    Show this thread

  26. Worthwhile thread as to the false equivalence the Putin/Trump apologists are doing. The far left and far right. Two sides of the same coin. Corrosive to their core

    John Schindler
    @20committee
    ·
    3h
    Bottom line, folks, is that there’s NO equivalency between Western and Russian CA methods. Everybody spies, everybody “hacks” — but US/NATO do NOT strategically weaponize intel to overthrow governments like Putin does. Saying we do is simply a lie which needs to be exposed. /12X
    Show this thread

  27. PhoenixRed

    On reflection, Obama did not deal with Putin effectively.
    You could argue hence why we have this shitshow now

  28. A major cyber attack on Singapore’s government health database stole the personal information of about 1.5 million people, including Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, the government said on Friday.

    The “deliberate, targeted and well-planned,” attack aimed at patients who visited clinics between May 2015 and July 4 this year, the Health Ministry said in a statement.

    “It was not the work of casual hackers or criminal gangs,” the ministry said, adding that the attackers targeted details about Lee and the medicines he received.

    “The attackers specifically and repeatedly targeted Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s personal particulars and information on his outpatient dispensed medicines,” it said.

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/attack-on-singapore-health-database-steals-details-of-1-5m-including-pm-20180720-p4zsre.html

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