Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A slight narrowing in the Labor lead brings Essential Research’s two-party result in line with Newspoll’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll for The Guardian has Labor’s two-party lead down from 52-48 to 51-49. Primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full results later today. A series of findings on energy policy offer something for everybody. Eighty per cent favoured an inquiry into the contribution of power companies to high power prices; 63% thought energy companies should be returned to public ownership; 61% believing burning coal causes climate change; and 55% thought expanding coal mining would undermine efforts to address it. However, 47% thought coal-fired power cheaper than that from renewables; 40% supported the call by some Nationals for $5 billion to be spent on coal plants, with 38% opposed. Thirty-eight per cent thought the government should prioritise renewables over coal, 16% thought the opposite, and 34% thought they should be treated equally.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. This is what happens when governments and semi-governments organisations become obsessed with the economic mantra of cost recovery.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ambulance-victoria-orders-debt-collectors-not-to-chase-good-samaritans-20180720-p4zsqs.html

    If I was the minister responsible I would want the ambulance service to find out whose idea it was to do this and stand those people up in public to explain why they thought it was a good idea, have them apologise and then sack them.

  2. Sprocket
    My Mum is watching that game. I just asked her if one team was half a match quarter late getting onto the ground.

  3. Rossmcg @ #2051 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 6:46 pm

    This is what happens when governments and semi-governments organisations become obsessed with the economic mantra of cost recovery.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ambulance-victoria-orders-debt-collectors-not-to-chase-good-samaritans-20180720-p4zsqs.html

    If I was the minister responsible I would want the ambulance service to find out whose idea it was to do this and stand those people up in public to explain why they thought it was a good idea, have them apologise and then sack them.

    Did you see this report earlier today about the varying ambulance fees across the country?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-20/ambulance-fees-around-australia/10015172

    I had no idea this was the case.

  4. Sprocket

    I am no fan of the AFL hierarchy but when they did the fixture nearly a year ago few would have thought Richmond would possibly be better than they were last year and the many pundits who thought St Kilda would be big improvers would be so wrong.

    Edit: and St Kilda won last years “Maddies Match” by 10 goals

  6. I can remember a couple years ago Carlton was scheduled for nearly every Friday night match only for our games to end up a cakewalk to our opponents. The logic from AFL seemed to be that we were improving, therefore proved a viable contester for peak viewing periods. Alas it was not to be.

  7. Prof. Higgins

    Re Bushfire. He makes/made anamorphic lenses for projectors and stuff for home theatres. The crazy but beautiful Bludger lounge’s nature was epitomised for me when a flame war broke out over anamorphic lenses. Ya gotta love PB and the things that get our denizens blood up. Long may it continue 🙂

  8. Ummm, Shellbell, did you leave out a “not” in your post about CFMEU v Boral? The Court held that contempt proceedings were civil in nature, despite the fact that they were “accusatory”.

  11. Can’t they banish these boring matches to one of their other channels and put on re-runs of Midsomer Murders?

    Oops. That won’t work, MM would be ruined by adverts.

  13. Thanks Mari, I had to really look at that Rowe. I think he’s referencing the second Trump-Putin summit.

    And so much to see: the building names in the background, the disposed coffee cup littering the sidewalk (is it a Maccas logo or a Trump Tower logo?), the discarded newspaper clippings.

  15. It isn’t accurate to use the term “expansionist” to describe Russia’s actions in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. Both interventions secured existing strategic interests for Russia. Those military interventions didn’t expand anything – they just stopped an existing strategic interest from slipping away. In 2004 Georgia elected a president who wanted his country to join the EU, which Russia reasonably considers a stalking horse for eventual NATO membership. How can Russia realistically be expected to tolerate the loss of a buffer state between itself and the Middle East? In 2014 Ukraine changed from a basically pro-Russian regime to a pro-western regime. Why would anyone with knowledge of geopolitical realities expect Russia to accept loss of control of Sevastapol, its only warm water port? All of its ports on the Arctic and Pacific Oceans are frozen for several months every year. Furthermore, Crimea in Ukraine and South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia are regions with majority Russian populations (because of Stalin’s policy of strategically placing large Russian minorities in every Soviet satellite state). When Russian forces invaded those areas, they were pushing against an open door. The people who live in those regions overwhelmingly align themselves with Russia rather than the pro-EU and pro-NATO regimes that nominally governed them.

    All the grandiose talk about who is and who isn’t a thug, the relative degrees of corruption of the various leaders, which country has the worst human rights record, and which country is the better exemplar of democracy etc is just a rhetorical smokescreen to obscure the strategic interests at stake. Foreign policy is not primarily about values or ideas – it is about strategic interests that relate to geographical and climatic factors such as how much fertile land a nation has, whether it can feed itself, whether it is naturally defended by mountains or swamps or tundras, whether it possesses or has easy access to natural resources, whether it can access oceans. Statements about values and ideas are used as pretexts to justify decisions made for geopolitical reasons.

  16. Actually Zoomster, my intention in posting was really to consider the role of Stalin, whom nearly everyone associates with Russia.

    You are being discursive. And toying with nomenclature. And it has succeeded. Aided by my ever shortening attention span I now have no idea what the original point of the discussion was.

  17. I don’t know what to say. Freed as slaves but still forced to work, what the fuck was/is the matter with humans?

    (CNN)Months after a Texas school district broke ground on a new technical center, archaeologists there made a surprising discovery: the long-buried remains of 95 people.

    The first remains were discovered in February in Sugar Land, a suburb southwest of Houston. And now officials have learned who these people probably were — freed black people forced to work in convict labor camps.

    For over a century, these graves were underground and untouched. But the finding that they likely held the remains of slaves, which researchers announced Monday, highlights an era that’s largely forgotten in history — a time when slavery was illegal, but many blacks were essentially still enslaved.
    …
    The bodies were each buried in individual wooden caskets. Of those analyzed so far, all but one are men. Researchers say they could have been as young as 14 and as old as 70.

    They were probably buried between 1878 and 1910, Clark said.

    Despite the passage of time, researchers can tell that the workers were malnourished or sick and faced huge physical stress when they were alive.

    Clark said there’s lots of evidence that they were doing very heavy labor that, for some, began at a young age.

    “We can tell from the state of the bone and muscle attachment features that these were heavily built individuals. Some bones were misshapen by the sheer musculature and labor,” Clark told CNN.
    It’s no surprise in Texas

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/18/us/bodies-found-construction-site-slavery-trnd/index.html?utm_term=image&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2018-07-18T23%3A44%3A01&utm_source=twCNN

  18. Hello Propellor Cap Boy.

    “Both interventions secured existing strategic interests for Russia. Those military interventions didn’t expand anything – they just stopped an existing strategic interest from slipping away.”

    Just like the sudentenland then. …

  20. Nicholas

    Apart from the warm water port bit Sevastopol has been Russian for a few centuries and several hundred thousand Russian casualties defending it against the Pomgolians and Nazis makes it not just a little bit of land.

  21. Propeller Cap Boy wisdom:

    “Foreign policy is not primarily about values or ideas – it is about strategic interests that relate to geographical and climatic factors such as how much fertile land a nation has, whether it can feed itself, whether it is naturally defended by mountains or swamps or tundras, whether it possesses or has easy access to natural resources, whether it can access oceans. Statements about values and ideas are used as pretexts to justify decisions made for geopolitical reasons.”

    Sounds a lot like the justification of Generalplan Ost #Lebensrum.

    It’s amazeballs the lengths that ‘the Left’ will go to give mother Russia the benefit of the doubt. A hangover of their Soviet fetish of times past.

  22. @poroti

    Plus Crimea was a part of Russia (well the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic) until 1954 when it was transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.

  23. In 2004 Georgia elected a president who wanted his country to join the EU, which Russia reasonably considers a stalking horse for eventual NATO membership. How can Russia realistically be expected to tolerate the loss of a buffer state between itself and the Middle East?

    Oh , I dont know, maybe…. the principle of Westphalian state sovereignty? Or…the UN Charter?

    All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

  24. It’s all the fault of those countries which aren’t Russian not doing what Russia wants. It means Russia has no choice but to take them over.

  25. UN Charter Simon. Mere Grandiose talk, when compared to geopolitical blahdeblah multisylabic pomposity excuse making for Mother Russia.

  26. I do not know much about Russia or its neighbouring states, but I would not hail it as a paragon of benevolent government.

    I can’t see how any of their elections could be called fair (nor some of those in the USA, for that matter.)

    Journalists locked up or killed, dissidents persecuted, human rights abuses, meddling in democratic processes of The West countries; how can any of that be defended?

  27. zoomster

    It’s all the fault of those countries which aren’t Russian not doing what Russia wants. It means Russia has no choice but to take them over.

    Funnily enough the Libyans, Iraqis, Iranians and a host of other nations had the same problem with the Septic Tanks.

  28. poroti @ #2079 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 10:04 pm

    zoomster

    It’s all the fault of those countries which aren’t Russian not doing what Russia wants. It means Russia has no choice but to take them over.

    Funnily enough the Libyans, Iraqis, Iranians and a host of other nations had the same problem with the Septic Tanks.

    Moral Equivalence doesn’t suit you, poroti.

  29. Who is Propeller Cap Boy? I’ve seen this screen name referenced in comments but can’t find an actual commenter with this name.

  30. Journalists locked up or killed, dissidents persecuted, human rights abuses, meddling in democratic processes of The West countries; how can any of that be defended?

    Trumpists will find a way. Just watch.

  31. Sally McManus
    ‏
    Verified account

    @sallymcmanus

    This has got to stop. Call us out on breaking unjust (civil) laws but please don’t characterise us with behaviour we totally oppose, always condemn and is against our values

  33. C@tmomma

    What is good for the goose is surely good for the gander ? Besides there is no moral equivalence. The USA fucked those countries for no good reason. End of.

    In the last 20 years we, along with the US of A , have embarked on wars causing millions of casualties and tens of millions of people to flee their homes. Putin is a ruthless prick but when it comes to fucking peoples’ live we are waaay ahead of him in the casualty count.

  34. Historical ownership and ethnic composition has no role (zero!) once territory has been established and legitimate government exists. Firstly, Russia only had control over these regions through expansionism – more often than not violent expansionism. So how far back do you go? Determining sovereign bounds under such nebulous terms is dangerous.

    South Ossetia may seem complicated but that is only because Russia made it so, festering discontent for decades. And lets not forget, 300,000 Georgians were displaced in that war (and a couple of hundred thousand from Abkhazia) – hardly what you would call a ethnically pure Russian enclaves.

    No, South Ossetia wasnt about reclaiming rightful territory, it was about putting an upstart (a dumb one at that) in his place, a warning shot to other countries and a middle finger to the West.

    Poroti, I have long been outraged by US hegemony (and not just tanks and guns but economic bullying too), and I am also outraged when Russia does it.

  36. the principle of Westphalian state sovereignty? Or…the UN Charter?

    So western powers don’t interfere in any other states when their strategic interests are at stake? Good to know. That will be news to the Middle East, East Asia, South Asia, South America. Will you give them the good news or shall I?

    I wonder if you understand that many states exist in name only, which is why they are so prone to civil war or to having regions where the people welcome another state’s armed forces.

    What happened in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 is far more complex than “Putin’s a thug”.

    If you are going to use the term “expansionist”, which has a precise meaning in foreign policy, learn how to use it correctly. It is not expansionist when a state acts to preserve something (a buffer zone, a warm water port etc) that it already has.

  39. Sexy Rexy. Have a crack at moving past anti labor slogans.

    I think propeller Cap Boy suits young Nicholas perfectly.

  40. Simon² Katich®

    Poroti, I have long been outraged by US hegemony (and not just tanks and guns but economic bullying too), and I am also outraged when Russia does it.

    On that we are on a unity ticket. Sadly empires do what empires do 🙁

  41. Every country which has ever invaded another country at any time in history has had excellent reasons for its actions.

    That doesn’t mean their actions were justified, or that they shouldn’t be criticised for them.

  43. Simon² Katich® @ #2073 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 9:55 pm

    In 2004 Georgia elected a president who wanted his country to join the EU, which Russia reasonably considers a stalking horse for eventual NATO membership. How can Russia realistically be expected to tolerate the loss of a buffer state between itself and the Middle East?

    Oh , I dont know, maybe…. the principle of Westphalian state sovereignty? Or…the UN Charter?

    All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

    Simon

    You mean like the protection Iraq got from the UN, the protection Liya got form the UN.

    Oooh yes. i can just see that.

    It is possible that Russia and Russians are paranoid but they REALLY believe that they are under threat from the US and UK in particular. It is not just idle thinking or posing. In 2015 they held civil defenceexercises involving 40 million people.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-nuclear-weapon-training-attack-radiation-moscow-vladimir-putin-a7345461.html

    NOTE THAT 40 MILLION

    Now NO country does that sort of exercise unless most of the civilian and military planners think it is a good idea. That it is needed. It is not a propaanda exercise when you involve 40 Million people. Propaganda exercised involve 200-1000 people,mostly the services and maybes hospital. Exercises involving 40 million people are civil defense. So what do they fear if not the USA and NATO. China possibly but unlikely.

    They have reason to be worried. I have no doubt whatsoever that the USA would destroy Russia if they thought they could. . Every single action taken by the US and NATO to encircle Russia is seen by Russians as a threat.

    You can argue they are paranoid but that still does not mean they should not take every possible action to defend themselves.

    So if you accept that Russia is genuinely scared of the USA then every action becomes rational and explicable. Georgia, Crimea and Ukraine and Syria. Also preferring Trump.

    You must know also that the big influence of Putin was Serbia. it happened while he worked for Yeltsin and Russians felt betrayed by the USA and the Clintons in particular. Serbia was a Russian ally. they were bombed to smithereens. Now the Kosovo situation was EXACTLY analogous to Crimea. If Kosovo was allowed to secede from Serbia there is no reason for anyone to complain about Crimea. there was far more bloodshed, foreign (US) forces enforcing that separation than in Crimea.

    So you cannot have it both ways. Once the US supported the Kosovo exit they really cannot is good conscience fail to accept Crimea.

    If I were the president of Russia I would most certainly do everything in my power to have moderately friendly buffer states along my border. If Barack Obama was the President or Mother Theresa they would do the same thing.

    Indeed what are we here in Australia doing right now in the Solomon islands and in Vanuatu. We are acting to block China. For the first time in 60 years we are just a teensy bit worried. Watch us behave just like Russia. It is power politics and it is to be expected everywhere. Watch what the US is doing to Venezuela.

  44. Oh, goodie. Propeller Cap Boy has read a book on Geopolitics. He’s now an expert on the subject.

    Remind me again. What have you actually ever done in your life?

  46. I wonder if you understand that many states exist in name only

    Oh come on. Neither were failed states.

    Crimea is more complex and less knowledgeable to me and I have been careful to avoid commenting on it. But interference in Ukraine in general is obvious, not even accounting for other military incursions.

    They are festering in Bulgaria too. Worried about that? What about Macedonia?

    I remember the euphoria of the end of the Cold War. The end of that terrible international gamesmanship. Yes the US continued it, but with US influence on the decline foreign policy liberalism is available to Russia and I am saddened they are not taking it.

  47. Criticising a regional power for doing the same thing that any regional power would do in that situation is a waste of time.

    It is more useful to focus on those topics where there are mutually rewarding agreements to be made. Expecting Russia to be okay with losing its only only warm water port and its buffer against the Middle East “because UN Charter” or “because Westphalia” is naive and silly. No regional power puts the UN Charter above its own viability as a state.

    Western powers don’t base their foreign policies on the UN charter or the Treaty of Westphalia. They identify their interests and do what they can to advance them. All global and regional powers do that.

  49. @Puffy

    I would also like meat animals bred to be so dumb that they do not have much idea what is happening to them.

    Or the Douglas Adams scenario from The Restaurant at the End of the Universe:

    He sat down.
    The waiter approached.
    ‘Would you like to see the menu?’ he said,
    ‘or would you like meet the Dish of the Day?’

    ‘Huh?’ said Ford.
    ‘Huh?’ said Arthur.
    ‘Huh?’ said Trillian.
    ‘That’s cool,’ said Zaphod, ‘we’ll meet the meat.’

    – snip –

    A large dairy animal approached Zaphod Beeblebrox’s table,
    a large fat meaty quadruped of the bovine type with
    large watery eyes, small horns and what might almost have
    been an ingratiating smile on its lips.

    ‘Good evening’, it lowed and sat back heavily on its haunches,
    ‘I am the main Dish of the Day. May I interest you in the parts
    of my body?’

    It harrumphed and gurgled a bit, wriggled its hind quarters in
    to a more comfortable position and gazed peacefully at them.

    Its gaze was met by looks of startled bewilderment from
    Arthur and Trillian, a resigned shrug from Ford Prefect and
    naked hunger from Zaphod Beeblebrox.

    ‘Something off the shoulder perhaps?’ suggested the animal,
    ‘Braised in a white wine sauce?’

    ‘Er, your shoulder?’ said Arthur in a horrified whisper.

    ‘But naturallymy shoulder, sir,’ mooed the animal contentedly,
    ‘nobody else’s is mine to offer.’

    Zaphod leapt to his feet and started prodding and feeling
    the animal’s shoulder appreciatively.

    ‘Or the rump is very good,’ murmured the animal. ‘I’ve been
    exercising it and eating plenty of grain, so there’s a lot
    of good meat there.’

    It gave a mellow grunt, gurgled again and started to chew
    the cud. It swallowed the cud again.

    ‘Or a casselore of me perhaps?’ it added.

    ‘You mean this animal actually wants us to eat it?’ whispered
    Trillian to Ford.

    ‘Me?’ said Ford, with a glazed look in his eyes, ‘I don’t mean
    anything.’

    ‘That’s absolutely horrible,’ exclaimed Arthur, ‘the most revolting
    thing I’ve ever heard.’

    ‘What’s the problem Earthman?’ said Zaphod, now transfering his
    attention to the animal’s enormous rump.

    ‘I just don’t want to eat an animal that’s standing there
    inviting me to,’ said Arthur, ‘It’s heartless.’

    ‘Better than eating an animal that doesn’t want to be
    eaten,’ said Zaphod.

    ‘That’s not the point,’ Arthur protested. Then he thought about it
    for a moment. ‘Alright,’ he said, ‘maybe it is the point. I don’t
    care, I’m not going to think about it now. I’ll just … er … I
    think I’ll just have a green salad,’ he muttered.

    ‘May I urge you to consider my liver?’ asked the animal,
    ‘it must be very rich and tender by now, I’ve been force-feeding
    myself for months.’

    ‘A green salad,’ said Arthur emphatically.

    ‘A green salad?’ said the animal, rolling his eyes disapprovingly
    at Arthur.

    ‘Are you going to tell me,’ said Arthur, ‘that I shouldn’t have
    green salad?’

    ‘Well,’ said the animal, ‘I know many vegetables that are
    very clear on that point. Which is why it was eventually
    decided to cut through the whoile tangled problem and breed
    an animal that actually wanted to be eaten and was capable of
    saying so clearly and distinctly. And here I am.’

    It managed a very slight bow.

    ‘Glass of water please,’ said Arthur.

    ‘Look,’ said Zaphod, ‘we want to eat, we don’t want to make
    a meal of the issues. Four rare stakes please, and hurry.
    We haven’t eaten in five hundred and sevebty-six thousand
    million years.’

    The animal staggered to its feet. It gave a mellow gurgle.
    ‘A very wise coice, sir, if I may say so. Very good,’ it
    said, ‘I’ll just nip off and shoot myself.’

    He turned and gave a friendly wink to Arthur.
    ‘Don’t worry, sir,’ he said, ‘I’ll be very humane.’

    It waddled unhurriedly off to the kitchen.

    From the book “The Restaurant at the End of the Universe” by Douglas Adams

  50. zoomster @ #2091 Friday, July 20th, 2018 – 10:28 pm

    Every country which has ever invaded another country at any time in history has had excellent reasons for its actions.

    That doesn’t mean their actions were justified, or that they shouldn’t be criticised for them.

    No Zoomster but you could keep a score card. Nationas that have invaded more countries or dropped more bombs over the last 5 years or 10 years.

    KPI
    How many killed
    What tonnage of explosives dropped
    How many buildings destroyed
    standard of living of population before intervention versus 5 years after
    Stability of emerging governemt
    Who controls the nation’s wealth.
    How many entrenched colonial bases established.

    Zoomster do those sums for every powerful country for the last 50 years and let us see what comes up.

    I KNOW that the US would get the way way highest score(Vietnam, Grenada, Iraq, Afghanistan, Serbia, Somalia and to the extent they use their own forces not proxies Syria. Followed probably by the UK (Afhanistan, Iraq, Falklands) Libya, Israel (Palestine, Lebanon and Syria) and Saudi (Yemen) and maybe some African countries. Russia would be trivial bikkies. I reckon even Australia would come our with a higher score, given Afghanistan and Iraq. Bloodshed in Ossetia was minimal and non existent in Crimea. Ditto damage to buildings.

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