Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A slight narrowing in the Labor lead brings Essential Research’s two-party result in line with Newspoll’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll for The Guardian has Labor’s two-party lead down from 52-48 to 51-49. Primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full results later today. A series of findings on energy policy offer something for everybody. Eighty per cent favoured an inquiry into the contribution of power companies to high power prices; 63% thought energy companies should be returned to public ownership; 61% believing burning coal causes climate change; and 55% thought expanding coal mining would undermine efforts to address it. However, 47% thought coal-fired power cheaper than that from renewables; 40% supported the call by some Nationals for $5 billion to be spent on coal plants, with 38% opposed. Thirty-eight per cent thought the government should prioritise renewables over coal, 16% thought the opposite, and 34% thought they should be treated equally.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. “global economy which has finally shaken off the effects of the financial crisis”

    That being the case, treasurer, why are official interest rate settings persisting at emergency levels?

  2. If the Democrats take the House Trump will inevitably be impeached.

    But that means nothing without the 2/3 of Senators required to step up to the plate.

  3. Ven

    You can talk as much as you like about whether Labor have got their shit together re by elections.
    No one is stopping the discussion. Just that some of us are interested in big stuff going on that is consequential.
    Anyhoo, So far from what I have gleaned, the Courier mail have done the LNP no favours today exposing the bullshit from candidate.

  4. William Bowe,
    Can you explain which state qld seats exist in Longman federal seat. How did ALP fare in recent QLD state elections in those seats? What was the preference flow of PHONy votes to major parties(percentage wise).

  6. Also an important aspect to consider. Re Brexit and the shit show in US re trade wars as well as tariffs etc, the world markets are a concern. This ultimately affects us all.

  7. Frankly I cannot fathom how anyone can not find the Trump Imbroglio fascinating. I wasn’t alive when the Watergate scandal unfolded, so this is the closest thing to that which my generation can experience firsthand. Except this is seems so much worse because the corruption and the treason is on such a larger scale.

  9. Ven

    Comparing state seats with federal seats is not really very useful – I did a federal election where Labor went backwards by 5%, which was immediately followed by a state election, covering the same area, where the average swing to Labor was 7%. (So a 12% difference in the Labor vote).

    It can be useful at the booth level – for example, if the same booth records gains for Labor across both State and Federal elections, that means something.

  10. Fess

    Nixon just wanted the edge over the democrats.
    Trump and his cronies want to change world order to enrich themselves. So yeah on a larger scale

  11. Confessions

    Nixon was a crook and a liar but traitor I don’t think could be pinned on him.

    I agree with Victoria. Trump’s attacks on Western Alliances and supporting Russia are of immense National Security concern for Australia.

    If the US becomes a vassal state of Russia which if the US does not act in its own interest against Russia could happen is of immense interest to us as a nation and citizens.

    At the very least it changes the role of China in the Pacific.

    If we have to end up choosing which dictatorship is in Australia’s best interest then China could become the logical choice.

    I know that sounds like fanciful thinking but if the direction is not resisted successfully thats the outcome we could very well be looking at.

    Thats how significant and historic this Helsinki Meeting of Trump and Putin has been

    Edit: I should add I expect our Foreign Minister and Shadow Foreign Minister to weigh in precisely due to the fact this is of international importance and has domestic impacts. While respecting the sovereignty of the US democratic process

  12. Ven,
    We can walk and chew gum at the same time here. Anyway, ALL politics is local and the effect that Trump is having on politics on the global stage affects us here in Australia as well, so it is more than worthwhile discussing it. It’s called Democracy, and it’s under threat like it hasn’t been for almost one hundred years. Now, you can put your head in the sand and confine the discussion to local politics only, or you can see the bigger picture and discuss that. I know what I am going to do. It’s too important not to.

  13. Vic:

    Another difference between Watergate and today is Nixon’s AG and Deputy AG resigned rather than work for him.

    It remains to be seen whether the same happens with Trump, but I’m not putting any money on any of them, esp Sessions doing the honourable thing and resigning. They’re all complicit.

  14. Steve Schmidt‏Verified account @SteveSchmidtSES

    No American President has ever disgraced himself, the Presidency and the United Stated like Trump did today. The video will endure as a monument to stupidity, arrogance and idiocy throughout the ages. Trump beclowned himself and made the world much more dangerous. What a fool.

    Trump Own Staff Admits That He Looked Weak Next To Putin

    I honestly had little to no good expectations for this,” said a senior Trump political appointee who works on issues surrounding Russian disinformation efforts, adding that the event “went about as well as I expected.”

    “Trump looked incredibly weak up there. Putin looks like a champion,” the official continued. “I’d like to say I’m shocked but this is the world in which we live now.”

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/07/16/trump-own-staff-admits-that-he-looked-weak-next-to-putin.html

  15. Confessions@9:06am
    Do you know that US House seats are gerrymandered so much that Democrats need a vote differential of more than 8% to capture US House. William Bowe can correct me if I am wrong on that figure. So Democrats need to ride a blue tsunami to get majority.
    Second, you may already know that there are over 20 democrat Senators out of 33 due for election, who are up for election in November mid-term elections. It is huge ask to expect all of the democrat Senators to win the elections and win over some Republican seats to tip over the majority Republicans have in Senate.

  16. Guardian Australia
    ‏Verified account @GuardianAus
    58s59 seconds ago

    Facebook protects far-right activists even after rule breaches

  17. This is what Nixon did:

    Vice-President Nixon flew to Moscow, Russia, on July 22, 1959, for an 11-day visit to the U.S.S.R. One of the principal stops on his itinerary was to open officially the American National Exhibition in Moscow’s Sokolniki Park.

    The “kitchen-cabinet debate” between Nixon and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, an impromptu and somewhat heated exchange at the American National Exhibition, was heard and seen by millions of people around the world thanks to radio and television coverage.
    http://www.robinsonlibrary.com/america/unitedstates/1961/1969/nixon/russia59.htm

    In other words, he was an American Patriot first and foremost.

  19. Ven @ #114 Tuesday, July 17th, 2018 – 9:24 am

    Confessions@9:06am
    Do you know that US House seats are gerrymandered so much that Democrats need a vote differential of more than 8% to capture US House. William Bowe can correct me if I am wrong on that figure. So Democrats need to ride a blue tsunami to get majority.
    Second, you may already know that there are over 20 democrat Senators out of 33 due for election, who are up for election in November mid-term elections. It is huge ask to expect all of the democrat Senators to win the elections and win over some Republican seats to tip over the majority Republicans have in Senate.

    After today’s performance by Trump in Helsinki, I don’t think that’s such a big ask.

  20. Ven:

    G. Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
    2h2 hours ago
    Ahead of this year’s midterm elections, there are far more competitive Republican House districts than competitive Democratic ones. The comparative safety of so many Democratic seats boosts their chances of winning the House. http://2018.thecrosstab.com

  22. Aw, sh!t!

    Taxpayers will have to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal costs after a court case collapsed because the Department of Agriculture admitted it had wrongly issued a permit to the controversial live exporter Emanuel Exports.

    The department, which is already the subject of a major review over its past regulation of the live export trade, admitted its error in court documents filed in response to a case brought by Animals Australia.
    …
    The permit was granted by assistant secretary Narelle Clegg who made headlines when she cried during Senate estimates questioning about the Awassi Express horror earlier this year.

    But in a hugely embarrassing bungle for the embattled department, government lawyer Matthew Blunn told the Federal Court Ms Clegg did not have the proper authority to issue the permit and her decision was “an error of law.”

    Not cowboys as much as expensive dopes.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/cowboy-culture-department-of-agriculture-s-costly-live-export-legal-bungle-20180716-p4zrsv.html

  23. Fess

    Trump has surrounded himself with the lowest of the low. It is an open secret that some of the comprising stuff they have on Trump is so bad that no one in their right mind would associate with him, but yet here we are.

  25. Barney

    Hyperbolic!!

    Yeah right. If the US chooses to remain with Trump we will find out how hyperbolic it is. The US has not been a paragon of democracy for a while but this really could push it over the edge to dictatorship.

    I do think Trump will fall as you have seen me say upthread. However its not hyperbolic to point to the shifting power structures in the Middle East and the Pacific because thats already happening and Trump has accelerated the rise of China and Russian influence. Thats not hyperbole

  27. You’d think that Trump’s weakness amongst his base of deplorables is their patriotism.

    One can hope.

  28. Barney

    You can Join Ven on other thread. You will be happier there if you don’t want to to read the musings of myself and others

  29. AR

    It works because you have to get turnout to the polls. You are saying be patriotic put America first Putin last. Vote Democrat.

    That means you don’t have the luxury of staying home in the US voluntary system

  33. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-17/new-zealand-ministers-criticise-australia-deportation-laws/9999460

    Two senior New Zealand ministers have taken a brickbat to Australia, calling the politics of deportations “venal” and warning the issue is straining relations between the two countries.

    The criticism comes in the wake of a steep rise in deportations of Kiwis since the passage of laws in 2014 that allowed deportation of long-term Australian residents, who are not citizens, on the grounds of “character”, as well as those who have been sentenced to prison for 12 months or more.
    ::::
    “It’s certainly not consistent with any humanitarian ideals that I thought both countries once shared.”

    Mr Little was referring to the case of Ko Haapu, who was living in Perth when the laws were passed with bipartisan support.

  34. I couldn’t help but notice that, in brazen defiance of current fashion, Putin wasn’t wearing a lapel pin. What a devil-may-care swashbuckling rebel he is.

  35. The Coalition now have a 4 point lead on primary with a 4 in front which makes things interesting from latest essential poll.
    Coalition 40 unchanged
    Labor 36 down 1
    Greens 10 down 1
    Xenp 1 unchanged
    One Nation 6 unchanged
    Others 6 unchanged

  36. Darn @ #131 Tuesday, July 17th, 2018 – 9:42 am

    I can’t wait to see DTTs defence of Trump over this one.

    Yes, it’s interesting because it always seems to exactly predict the broader RWNJ response. Mueller tarred as “treasonous” because by indicting some Russian spies who interfered in the election like it’s his job to do he was attempting to interfere with Trump’s Big Meeting™? Completely ridiculous, but DTT called it and not long thereafter you had the same line being run by all the usual official suspects.

    It’s almost as if they all collude on their talking points, or something.

    But in this case, it’s almost certainly going to be “why would you not want better relations with Russia?” and “this is the only way to avoid nuclear war”.

  38. Interesting for DTT since she accused Mueller of treason only days ago … and some media/intelligence veterans in US are openly accusing Trump of treason instead.

    Then we have the Manafort speculation and Maria Butina … methinks this was the turning point … the trigger for action on the part of Justice

  41. michael

    The last election was 50/50. I have seen no evidence that with the war chest and arguing for fairness will not resonate with voters.

    We will see come by election time how accurate the new Newspoll figures are and if Essential is being herded by the commentary effect.

    Thats if you assume the majority of One Nation voters left will preference the LNP.

  42. Barney

    We don’t post our comments to entertain you in particular. I’ve said it before and I will say it again.
    Scroll by. Don’t read our stuff if you are not interested.
    That is what I do when I am not interested in the discussion

  44. Vic
    What’s your judgement about the chances of impeachment, and the timing? Taking sides with the murderous Putin against at the men and women of American intelligence agencies who risk their lives for their country should be the end.
    But Trump seems to weather any storm – although this is unprecedented.
    Will the Republicans have the guts to move ?

  45. michael says:
    Tuesday, July 17, 2018 at 9:48 am
    Coalition 40 unchanged
    Labor 36 down 1
    Greens 10 down 1
    Xenp 1 unchanged
    One Nation 6 unchanged
    Others 6 unchanged

    OK. Who stole the missing points?
    Or did they join the Undecideds?

  49. If anything, these 51-49s and 50-50s would make Malcy’s trigger finger itchy.

    Go for it Mal.
    —–
    On the US Midterms, yes, you need a uniform lead of around 8%… but that’s not how it works, just like here.
    * Democrats current lead is around 8-8.5% – noting turnout models will be screwy due to the measures they place on what defines a ‘likely voter’ – this will be heavily driven by 2014 and the horrid Democratic turnout from that year.
    * Democrats are out-raising Republicans in 62 seats so far, 59 vulnerable
    * The average swing in special elections has been 19% – don’t focus on polls, look at where people have actually been voting, the trend is clear – suburban moderates, including suburban GOPers are voting for the Democrats and Democrats as a whole are actually turning up to vote in specials. Democrats are also RUNNING nearly everywhere.
    * Nothing is set in stone and things can change but it looks good for the House.

    The Senate is trickier, as mentioned, the Democrats are defending a lot of ground. I think the Dems will hold most of their seats, with the status of the Senate determined by
    – FL
    – IN
    – ND
    – TN
    – MO
    – AZ

    IN, ND, followed by FL are the Dem seats I’m most worried about, then MO. The Dems have a very good chance to flip NV, AZ and TN. My current map has IN gone, and ND and FL remaining toss ups. Based on who I think it winning what, it’s 49-49 with 2 toss ups, either one goes to the GOP, and Pence gets the deciding vote.

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