Newspoll and Essential Research both had polls last week, and since we’re probably not due yet for a ReachTEL (the last was three weeks ago), we presumably have a lean week coming up. The latest BludgerTrack update accounts for the two aforesaid polls, and they have had the most minimal of impacts on the voting intention aggregates, on which the biggest move is a 0.6% drop for One Nation. The seat projections have the Coalition up one in Victoria and Western Australia, and down one in Queensland. A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll makes a modest addition to the established pattern of improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, with Bill Shorten flatlining. Full results through the link below.
phoenixRed:
If you’re around, this was from 3 years ago almost to the day. It’s true what they say: you change the govt you change the country.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ebh2HOO-_4E
Andrew,
I am not too sure atm. Twitter might have it somewhere.
The polling may be up on sky news Twitter or ghost who votes.
Cheers.
What is a ‘fake Muslim’, is it someone like a fake Christian?
Shanahan informs us that the more Albo’s alleged leadership campaign is denied, the more this proves it’s real. Coupled with the alternative of Albo simply admitting it, and Dennis has all the bases covered.
“Heads I win, tails you lose.” An admission is as good as a denial, which is an admission anyway.
Meanwhile as the Libs shed leaders and stab each other in the back, threatening to cross the floor and force each others’ mistresses to have illegitimate babies aborted, boys will be boys.
Back to psephology. I stumbled into Poll Bludger in early 2014 and (as you do) I became interested in developing a poll aggregation technique that I could easily program into an Excel spreadsheet. This is what I get starting with the election in September 2013.
Blue dots are L/NP TPP. Red dots are ALP TPP. Blue line is the aggregated L/NP TPP. Red line is the aggregated ALP TPP.
Aggregated polls are: Essential, Galaxy, Galaxy/Newspoll, Ipsos, Longeran, Morgan, Morgan Multi, Newspoll, Nielsen, ReachTEL, and YouGov.
From the L/NP perspective.
Overall lead/lag
From a big lead in September 2013 the L/NP TPP fell below 50% in May 2014, and after a dramatic fall in February 2015 recovered slowly until July 2015 before resuming a downward trend. In mid-September 2015 Turnbull assumed the PM’ship and the polls switched dramatically in the L/NP’s favour, only to trend downwards again in February 2016. The L/NP TPP fell below 50% in early May 2016. An election was called. The L/NP won by a slim margin and immediately started a downward trend in the polls. By February 2017 they were again below 50%. (What is it with February?) In November 2017 the downward trend for the L/NP reversed and climbed to very nearly 50% in May 2018. Since then the two parties have been very even.
Size of the margin
The initial lead for the L/NP TPP in September 2013 was close to 4% (L/NP 54% versus 46% ALP). By February 2015 the L/NP TPP had reversed with the ALP on close to a 4% lead.Turnbull becoming PM reversed this again but only achieved a 2% lead (L/NP 52% versus 48% ALP). The election in July 2016 gave the coalition a 0.5% lead, which eroded to a 1% lag by December 2017. Since then the lag has narrowed. Currently it is too close to tell.
Thoughts
0) My calculations are simplistic, but the overall look is similar to William Bowe’s, albeit with a less smooth aggregate and a smaller difference between L/NP and ALP TPP. I am sufficiently encouraged by this to assume the overall shape of my graph is valid and may be analysed.
1) While currently leading in the polls, the ALP do not appear well placed to win an election at this time. The ALP aggregated TPP lead prior to the 2016 election was 0.5% and the ALP lost by 0.5%. That is a 1% error, or 1% late swing. If a similar swing occurred today the ALP would lose by 0.4%.
2) The aggregate TPP since the 2016 election has narrowed considerably compared with the period between the 2013 and 2016 elections.
3) The reversal of the L/NP trend (reigning in the ALP lead) started at the same time as the Bennelong by-election.
4) The small dip in L/NP TPP coincides with the recent B.Joyce interview.
Conclusion
L/NP has recovered. It is too close to call.
EDIT: Sad face.
lizzie @ #123 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 7:31 am
Just hope Pyne doesn’t do an interview soon, it may be love!!!! 🙂
jenauthor: “For those poo-poohing Chalmers et al … I give you Scott Morrison … a mere honours degree in Economic Geography and Lawyer, Cormann in charge of our finances.”
I’m no great fan of Morrison – I’m a little bit more impressed by Cormann – but I think it’s fair to say that it’s not essential for economics ministers to be brilliant economists. After all, Keating left school at 14 and never went to university at all. But he had a good sense of what advice to listen to.
John Reidy @ #251 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 1:14 pm
Or a professional homosexual?
meher baba,
You are correct about Jim Chalmers PhD. Political Science. However, with the following on his CV, I think he might know a thing or two about Economics as well:
Stephen Koukoulas’ reputation you attempt to minimise as well. However, I don’t think you get to his positions as Economics Adviser in the Office of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard; Department of Treasury; Global Head of Research in London for TD Securities; and past Chief Economist of Citibank, without being okay at Economics. To put it mildly.
Next, Dr Andrew Leigh.
Boom! Shake the room!
Oh, and I forgot Dr Andrew Charlton:
And he bears a striking resemblance to Clark Kent! 🙂
So, I think, you have to admit now that Labor has some serious economic firepower in it’s corner!
Confessions says: Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 3:12 pm
phoenixRed:
If you’re around, this was from 3 years ago almost to the day. It’s true what they say: you change the govt you change the country.
***************************************************
Thanks Confessions – very interesting – Palin, Obamacare …… and the Confederate flag …… it still divides a nation – angry white men who see their perfect white life of jobs and wealth, has been destroyed and taken away from them by the ‘brown people”
So, my impression of scanning meher baba’s posts today.
They seem to be against a progressive system of taxation and more in favour of a user pay system.
You’re not David Leyonhjelm are you? 🙂
I think your on the money late riser. There’s a coin toss in it and election campaigns tend to favour the status quo.
Still dumb decisions like parachuting downer into mayo can buck the trend.
Still 50:50 in longman, would bill shorten have thought his future would be decided by the good folk of Caboolture ?
phoenixRed:
Complete opposite to today. The optimism and promise of only 3 years ago: confederate flags being banned by states, Supreme Court rules in favour of SSM and in Obamacare, compared to the racist division the country has now.
And in well less than 3 years when you consider that Trump was sworn in 18mths or so later. 🙁
BB – shocked, positively shocked that people lie and cheat in politics.
What next? Presumably your disappointed that people like to make money and spend it on themselves ?
Late Riser. I haven’t seen an aggregate 2PP result that has the LNP above 48.5% since late 2016. Could be wrong on that, but the so-called narrowing seems to have tanked at about 48.2 in recent months and now seems to be stuck on no greater than 48.
Further, the so-called narrowing appears to be linked as much to a fudging of prefernce allocations by the pollsters than any real LNP recovery. The current One Nation – LNP love in doesn’t seem to shake the fact that Labor’s starting point in the race for the contestable preference votes is 46, comprising its own PV and its likely share of Green preferences. Whereas the LNP start at 38 and a wild guess of how many One Nation PV are actually ‘theirs’.
I’m not saying there could be a late shift back to the LNP but I seriously question the analysis that says this is actually already anything more than one point over the 53-47 position that the aggregate 2PP vote was stuck at last year.
Even allowing for a 1% margin or error or late surge, Labor seems well placed for the upcoming GE.
AE: “Finally you completely jump the shark. You seriously expect Labor to put the family home into the asset mix to assess the eligibility for the aged pension? One might as wind the Labor Party up (I’m sure Rex and Eddie would love that) and hand the keys to the lodge to the LNP for the next 50 years (and Truffles would love that). Politics is of course the art of the possible and surely someone like you knows that in the current climate the family home is verboten.”
And yet it is is a measure that is perhaps more justifiable on pure policy grounds than any other that Labor is currently proposing. If combined with a reasonably-priced reverse mortgage arrangement, it would arguably be much more equitable than taxpayers being asked to continue to pay a living income – plus health care card and other benefits – to people with high-value asset holdings. It would also encourage the sale of large dwellings occupied by a single occupant, perhaps making the housing market a bit easier for young people to get into.
Sure, it would be politically difficult – a minor Young Liberal official suggested something like it recently and was slapped down very hard.
But what I struggle with is that, while eschewing a policy like this, Labor will go in hard at people – most of whom are on relatively low incomes and who do not have health care cards, etc. – who are receiving the benefit of cash rebates through dividend imputation. It doesn’t seem very equitable to me.
I wonder how many of the good people of Cabulture will be happy with Pauline getting in bed with the Gubberment to vote themselves a $7000 pa tax cut? There is only so much cognative dissonance that the ‘aspirational’ tag can paper over. Even for a queenslander.
That Reachtel poll seems to represent a 4% swing back to labor over the last Reachtel seat poll I think. …
A_E: I hope you are right. I can adjust the parameters of my spreadsheet quite a bit but the overall shape is resilient. I would love to see a long term plot of a professionally aggregated TPP, including the ultimate poll of each election, rather than my back of the envelope stuff.
Confessions says: Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 3:32 pm
phoenixRed:
Complete opposite to today. The optimism and promise of only 3 years ago: confederate flags being banned by states, Supreme Court rules in favour of SSM and in Obamacare, compared to the racist division the country has now.
And in well less than 3 years when you consider that Trump was sworn in 18mths or so later.
****************************************
I read somewhere today another 4 million Americans just lost their Obamacare, Disabled vets were getting ripped off by insurance …… and those mid states American farmers were starting to get hit by Trumps trade war …. just another bunch of people who will rue the day they ever heard of Donald Trump …..
Handing the keys to the lodge for several generations to the LNP is far more inequitable Meher. Just saying.
Out of interest, I looked up Benton Wecker (see post above). Strange mixture, but obviously a Good Guy.
Confessions – as if on cue – the sublime Rick Wilson blisters Trump !!!!
THEATER OF DESPAIR
This Was the Week That Finally Broke Trump’s Spell
He was defeated by the two things he hates most: immigrants, and the media.
Donald Trump can’t define or pronounce the word Manichaean, but he knows it when he sees it. For Trump, there are two types of people; Donald Trump, and losers, and the one thing Donald Trump can’t abide is a loser. Donald Trump lost this week on immigration, and across the board. He lost, doubled down, lost again, hocked his cufflinks, lost, tried to flip the table and was finally escorted out of the casino and had his knees broken in the parking lot when he couldn’t pay his marker.
Trump’s week started off wrong, jumped every possible shark, and landed in the deep waters of political disaster. Unhinged, uncontrolled, and unstable as hell, Donald Trump’s pratfalls would be laughable if they didn’t involve thousands of children scattered into the bureaucratic winds, separated from their families, and reduced to political pawns in a theater of despair.
Read more of Rick Wilson’s golden words :
https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-was-the-week-that-finally-broke-trumps-spell?ref=scroll
This morning I sadly said farewell to my 4ft wide electric oil-filled panel heater. It just didn’t heat.
This may not seem newsworthy, except that it has done sterling service for 50 years, airing the children’s clothes when they were little, and always willing to dry a towel or a sheet in winter.
It is even more newsworthy when your consider that of the three smaller oil-filled column heaters I have purchased in the last four years, one has already given up the ghost.
Now tell me there was never a golden age!!
Well AE 50-50 in long man – what’s that a 1% swing to the gubberment.
Those adviser jobs in the shorten government may be a ways off.
lizzie
I guess that is why 90% are sitting down 😆
lizzie @ #273 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 12:49 pm
Over-engineering, where’s the profit in that? 🙂
phoenixRed:
Thanks for that! Always such a wordsmith.
“Trumpkampf”! 😆
Barney
Philistine!
Is a professional homosexual some one who is good at it?
I’ve known a few heterosexual professionials and they were lousy.
ok. Paroti. I’ll bite. Clearly the seating to standing ratio in that picture is closer to 50-50 than the 90% seating you suggest. Moreover, the seats are full and ‘its standing room only’ for the rest of the attendees, hence the phrase ‘standing room only’ appears to be appropriately used.
Until she changes her mind again.
Confessions says: Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 3:56 pm
phoenixRed:
Thanks for that! Always such a wordsmith.
“Trumpkampf”!
**************************************************
He is a fabulous writer isn’t he – his word pictures are cartoon characters of the people whose attitudes and behaviour are an anathema to his sense of decency and the party of his political choice – all be it – the GOP
To wit :
This was the worst week of Trump’s administration, by far. Letting Trump be Trump has always been a political disaster, and this week was vivid proof. There’s no adult supervision, just impulse, instinct, and hindbrain reflex.
Kirstjen Nielsen’s handling of the crisis showed a person utterly unready for political prime time. She saved her job at the cost of her last iota of integrity. Stephen Miller is so in love with his hate that he believed he was close to finally being able to beat someone up; to wit, screaming, terrified toddlers in cages. He spent a few days thumping his concave, 98-pound-weakling chest, hissing his delight at the political utility of highlighting the misery of refugee children but by the end of the week the architect of this stunningly nasty policy was reduced to muttering darkly about vengeance being his and licking his wounds.
Andrew_Earlwood
Aw. It is at least 75-25 🙂
I think Pauline Hanson’s afraid of the line,
‘What’s the point of voting for One Nation? You may as well vote for the Liberal Party.’ 🙂
“Kirstjen Nielsen’s handling of the crisis showed a person utterly unready for political prime time. ”
Au contraire. Nielsen is the perfect Stepford Nazi Wife. ‘The base’ are biggly impressed.
Gee, all kinds of predictions on polling in one seat with even money in Longman. In a two horse race, on the day, both sides in with a chance. It is true, from past experience, that Labor can lead 52-48 coming into a election and for the LNP to overtake this in the final week or two. On the other hand, the Gillard government and thence Rudd were behind and all the pundits were absolutely rolled gold, that Abbott and his party were the future. So, I guess it needs to be asked why it is Shorten cannot be just like Abbott at the time? A lead of 52-48 and more, but Liberal apologist here (or Shoten haters) see Labor as vulnerable. If I were a Labor MP I know where I would prefer to polls to be.
Contrary to the the accepted wisdom, it is really Turnbull who is holding the Liberals up where they are (behind) rather that Shorten holding Labor down. As many of the cynics here have expressed, we are waiting for yet another Turnbull “reset” – a time when the “real” Turnbull will shine. Just like the days of Abbott, when we were all told to wait for the “real” Abbott when many of us knew what dud he was.
I think the Shorten doubters/haters have forgotten that the days of rolling a Labor leader a la Rudd are now over and while Bill would not win the charisma competition at least he is no phoney, weak, show pony of the Turnbull ilk.
Late Riser @ #1237 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 3:05 pm
LR: So that’s where Jon Rosenberg went. Thanks.
meher baba @ #73 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 11:54 am
Meher
I had to go out and did not catch this post earlier, but do you really think that standards of living have gone UP. That just cannot be.
Firstly there is rapidly rising homelessness in women aged 55 or more. Sure this is a factor from divorce etc, but even a dilapidated house is better than a car to sleep in. These are not druggies etc, but probably mostly women who have not had long term workplace experience. Now I think even if these women get basic level employment (say in the care sector) they would pull perhaps $500 a week (it is very casualised work which can fluctuate wildly from week to week – so some weeks they may work 30-40 hours, the next only 20. Now what ever way you look at it they will need to pay $350 for a place of their own, while renting a room in a share house is not easy for the over 50s – especially women.
Secondly the reason household incomes appear higher is that there are now two people working. Back in 1975 this was not the usual pattern. So effectively while there has been an increase in income, there has been a major loss in leisure hours.
Now when I was young just about every young couple was able to buy a house while still in their 20s. This is very far from today’s situation. The long term consequences of not owning a home when you are 60 will come back to bit people big time.
I do agree that when we look at income over a time period we MUST break it down a bit to get meaningful comparison. Perhaps we should actually look at income in age groups/gender to compare like with like.
The most informative REAL comparison would be I think median incomes of males aged between 25 – 50, which should NOT be affected by variable such as longer time in education etc.
The other comparative data may be the % spent on accommodation and also the size of accommodation – usually measurable by number of people per room in the house.
boomy1 @ #172 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 3:58 pm
Boomyi
Do you wish to repharse that a bit? – smiley
For what its worth….may help some people –
The most recent Windows 10 major update, 1803 turned up on my PC today.
Its a large update, although all its been so far is trouble, but I’ll track down a list of the new features soon and see if there are any new useful features.
I am making post this because if you see it seeking to install the update on your PC, be aware it took almost three and a half hours to do so, rebooted my machine five or six times during the install and then wouldn’t start and load properly.
I had to keep forcing a restart four or five times but got it running, although a range of personal settings had to be redone manually.
So give yourself time etc if your machine seeks to do the update. Check that your PC will advise you it intends doing an update for 1803.
You might also want to keep a copy of the following in case you run into problems –
https://www.windowscentral.com/windows-10-april-2018-update-common-problems-and-fixes
Someone may already have alerted people to this but I’ve been doing a lot of scrolling on PB in recent times etc. Nuff said on that.
As I said for what its worth etc.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #158 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 3:38 pm
Andrew
Trouble is that Longman is a very mixed seat. The denizens of Caboolture and Morayfielsd wil swing Labor, the denizens of red neck land out Woodford way – who knows, the retirees on Bribie Island will be scares by the asset issues and will like the tax cuts.
lizzie,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_SHwJybAWo
Kirstjen Nielsen. So obviously an Aryan Woman from Trump Central Casting.
“Trouble is that Longman is a very mixed seat. The denizens of Caboolture and Morayfielsd wil swing Labor, the denizens of red neck land out Woodford way – who knows, the retirees on Bribie Island will be scares by the asset issues and will like the tax cuts.”
Not many folk out Woodford way, although I might have missed them last time I travelled through there at Light Speed in a mate’s Lamborghini Aventador (he owned a private mountain there as well … who says I’m not ‘aspirational’, lol).
Dunno much about the demographics of the Bribie Island retiree, but you could be onto somoeghing there if a bunch of them own a share portfolio.
AE: “Handing the keys to the lodge for several generations to the LNP is far more inequitable Meher. Just saying.”
I totally get where you’re coming from. But I’m not sure that measures like the dividend imputation change are going to turn out to be much less electorally toxic, as well as IMO being somewhat less justifiable on policy grounds.
We’ll see.
Yes, it’s obvious that Trump’s schtick fell over this week when his female apologists couldn’t talk their way out of a thought that must have crossed a lot of people’s minds:
‘What if it was your children, Kirsten, Sarah, Kellyanne?’
#ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of #Longman 2 Party Preferred: ALP 50 (+3 since 10 May) LNP 50 (-3) #auspol
#ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of #Longman Primary Votes: ALP 39.1 LNP 34.9 ON 14.7 GRN 4.4 Other 3.7 Undecided 3.2 #auspol