BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Greensborough Growler @ #1693 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 9:35 pm

    daretotread. @ #1689 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 9:19 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #1660 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 8:34 pm

    DDT – you can play the sexism card all you want. Either you are ignorant of the etymology of the phrase or you are being deliberately obtuse. “Mad woman’s shit” as in “all over the place like …” which is what you post.

    You say that I’m a “fly buy” but I’m just not engaging in the minuscule particulars of your M.O. – which is to start with some so-called “maverick left wing position” and then you only accept evidence that fits that position but mainly, as a make weight, you just make things up. You think that’s ‘thinking out of the box’ but frankly it shows a fundamental problem with reality based logic.

    But hey, I’ve got no problems with our differences of opinion. That’s terrific on a blog like this. However, your ability to dish it out but bleat like a ruptured choir boy when there is return fire is beyond the pale. I don’t need to trace the history of your interaction with GG on this particular topic to note the others that you sledged along the way. Which again is fine, but that sets the standard by which other other bludgers, including Moi, will interact with you. …

    Andrew

    Fine by me

    You dish it out and I will dish it back at you.

    However try to avoid sexist comments like mad woman. Say nut case if you like but madwoman IS
    sexist whatever way you look at it.

    You all me a mad woman and I will call you an ALP party hack sheeple. OK. We would both be rather childish. I might even call you a member of the NSW right. Would that be slanderous?

    You are relatively new to this blog, but let me assure you that I have probably been the MOST abused blogger on here. I cop it from all directions. Including William who in fact has been the most offensive of all. I am pretty easy going about it BUT there is an issue of public bullying on social media and I am doing my little bit to fight it.

    Just consider GGs very recent comment. Now if he SERIOUSLY believed his comment about mental health issues i think you and anyone reasonable would considered his comment lower than that of a shit house rat. There is one thing you do NOT do if you think someone is mentally troubled and that is what GG did. Now we have had at least two cases on serious mental illness on this site and in those two I contacted William because of my concern. What i did NOT do is compound the problem by nasty throw away lines.

    Now when I got up this morning and posted a comment with the words thinking in it I did not deserve or need a narky reply from GG. Did I react – yes. Probably I should not have but it was more interesting than cleaning the kitchen.

    Time you got some mental health support comrade.

    You’re making a complete fool of yourself atm.

    So are you fella

    I at least have a smidgeon of self awareness. You have none it seems. However it is damned lucky for you that I do not have any major mental health issues or frankly you would be playing with fire. The fact that you compounded the issue just now is frankly unbelievable. Get a grip fella.

    Anyway that detested kitchen awaits.

  4. Boerwar @ #1673 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 6:52 pm

    Dan
    The UBI is a totally separate issue from the bank.
    Not when they are getting the trillions from the same funding source, they aren’t.
    In any case, I am not going to engage in these issues with you any more.
    Di Natale simply isn’t worth it.

    So, you can’t be bothered answering my reasonable question on what you think needs to be done to alleviate the coming dislocation of the workforce.

    I don’t know why I expected any better from you. You are a tedious tit and I’m going to go one better than “not engaging with you”.

  5. bemused @ #1700 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 9:58 pm

    William Bowe @ #1697 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 9:50 pm

    GG, in our prevailing environment of political-correctness-gone-mad, telling someone to “get some mental health support” isn’t really the done thing.

    I think mental health experts would disagree.
    Provided the concern was sincere.

    Appreciate your concern. But, my read is WB is telling me he doesn’t need the incoming vitriol.

  6. I always thought ‘political correctness’ was a term right-wing bigots used for common decency and respect for others. William has advised me otherwise.

  9. Dan Gulberry @ #1701 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 9:59 pm

    Boerwar @ #1673 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 6:52 pm

    Dan
    The UBI is a totally separate issue from the bank.
    Not when they are getting the trillions from the same funding source, they aren’t.
    In any case, I am not going to engage in these issues with you any more.
    Di Natale simply isn’t worth it.

    So, you can’t be bothered answering my reasonable question on what you think needs to be done to alleviate the coming dislocation of the workforce.

    I don’t know why I expected any better from you. You are a tedious tit and I’m going to go one better than “not engaging with you”.

    How many times have you posted that or a variation thereof?

    Yet like a moth to the flame, you return to your chosen destiny.

  10. We could pay people to study….do science….increase our knowledge….increase the rate and scope of diffusion of knowledge.

    The returns to investment in education are unlimited.

  16. I really disagree with proposals to cut the workforce that’s comprised by foreign workers. This is an entirely arbitrary proposal. Foreign workers expand the productive capacity of the economy. They increase skills, capital and other attributes and lift incomes.

    I luv em. I want many more.

    Shutting the door is never an answer.

  17. Learning makes people happy….

    Ah, briefly, you have obviously never been ‘blessed’ with a child for whom avoiding learning is the equivalent of avoiding catching herpes. 🙂

  23. The Victorian state election campaign has started. Joshua Morris MP has posted a little flyer informing us the Liberals will introduce Australia toughest anti consorting laws to “Stop gangs hunting in packs”.

    These wonderful laws are going to:
    back up our police
    Break up the gangs
    and make the Streets safer.

    The photo is of a bunch of teenagers hanging around a push bike; darkened of cause.

    On the other side I am informed that

    Victoria has the worst gang problem is Australia and we need to reverse Labor’s soft on Gangs approach. A liberal Government will overhaul Victoria’s anti-consorting regime, making them the toughest in the nation.

    Liberals never seem to let reality get in the way:
    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4519.0/

    Nothing about improving our transport system; nothing about our schools; hospitals. It is all about demonizing our children. May they rot in hell; the Liberals that is; not our children.

  29. Frednk…that really says the Libs have nothing to say that is relevant to the daily lives of Victorian voters…it is a concession of defeat

  33. C@tmomma @ #1724 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 10:32 pm

    William Bowe @ #1718 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 10:28 pm

    I’ll send you a pic…showing what I learned to do yesterday

    This one?
    https://twitter.com/Akram_Haimed/status/1005690702657916928/photo/1

    briefly is a gentle soul. I don’t think it’s in his repetoire. 🙂

    briefly usually aims for accuracy.

    The likely margin of error in that activity would preclude anyone that does not swim regularly.

  35. Are we ready for an early election, folks? Reckon Malcolm will squeeze one in before the Apology to the Victims of Institutional Child Sexual Abuse?

    A lot of people are coming to that conclusion.

  36. The Daily BeastVerified account@thedailybeast
    2h2 hours ago
    “Well done, Mr. President. You got your on-camera handshake with a man who orders the deaths of children.” – @TheRickWilson https://thebea.st/2LNk70u #TrumpKim

    While Trump’s foray into NK was an obvious failure, there’s always Nigeria in an opportunistic sense.
    https://rusi.org/event/degradation-boko-haram-northeastern-nigeria-what%E2%80%99s-next-nigerian-army

    And for bonus points I’m sure Ivanka can manufacture a Chinese proverb on the side to kick things off! #winning #bigly #YUGE

  38. briefly @ #1713 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 10:20 pm

    I really disagree with proposals to cut the workforce that’s comprised by foreign workers. This is an entirely arbitrary proposal. Foreign workers expand the productive capacity of the economy. They increase skills, capital and other attributes and lift incomes.

    I luv em. I want many more.

    Shutting the door is never an answer.

    Absolute crap.
    In the IT industry certain companies are bringing in a foreign workforce while Australian graduates and more experienced workers can’t get a job.
    All due to some bogus skills shortage.
    I believe the same is true in other industries.

  39. William,
    With All Due Regard,

    Political Correctness is the new term for the old-fashioned concept of politeness.

    Some things are just not polite. Calling someone the diseased ball-sack of a rabid hyena is polite, alluding to mental health conditions is not.

    Simple actually.

    Yours truly,
    Puffy.

  40. I’ve been learning how to make digital images using nothing but an iPhone…very simple-seeming app comes with the phone called notes

  42. Georgina – born with a silver spoon up her date.

    Whilst I am fairly sure I am unfamiliar with her bottom, I have on occasion spanked Alexander Junior….

  48. WA is maybe different from other economies….far more than half the population here have come from elsewhere. The economy would be tiny without them

  49. Bemused
    I totally agree with you. Letting in visa workers for IT jobs when our TAFEs and Unis are spitting out perfectly good IT workers is madness.

    The same goes for overseas IT students who graduate and stay here, instead of taking their skills back to their own countries.

    It is a bloody disgrace and pandering to employers who want cheap labour.

  50. We have been exporting our most talented to other places – to Sydney, London, Chicago, HK, Tianjin…

    Where would we be with a static system!!

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