The Guardian, which joins the fun by spruiking the result as the “eightieth straight loss” for the Turnbull government, reports that Labor holds a lead of 53-47 in the latest Essential Research poll, out from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister unchanged at 41-26 (a growing contrast with the narrow results from Newspoll); a 39% approval rating for Turnbull, down two, and a disapproval rating of 42%, down one; and a 35% approval rating for Bill Shorten, down two, and a disapproval rating of 43%, down one.
A question on preferred Liberal leader finds Turnbull moving clear of Julie Bishop since the last such result in December – he’s up three to 24%, with Bishop down two to 17%. Both are well clear of the more conservative alternatives of Tony Abbott, on 11% (up one) and 3% (down one). Scott Morrison scores only 2%, unchanged on last time. When asked who they would prefer in the absence of Turnbull, 26% opted for Bishop and 16% for Abbott, with Dutton and Morrison both on 5%. Also featured is an occasional question on leaders’ attributes, but I would want to see the raw numbers before drawing any conclusions from them. Those should be with us, along with primary votes, when Essential Research publishes its full report later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. The primary votes are Coalition 38%, Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (up one), One Nation 7% (down one).
Also today, courtesy of The Australian, are results from the weekend’s Newspoll which find support for a republic at 50%, down one since last August, with opposition up three to 41%. With the qualification of Prince Charles ascending the throne, support rises to 55%, unchanged since August, while opposition is at 35%, up one.
I imagine that we are not going to hear too much about cheese eating surrender monkeys in the immediate future.
WeWantPaul @ #2248 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 5:40 pm
I would institute a workplace regime that utterly dis-empowers workers, removes all job security and hard-won workplace rights, but then give it a really cool name that would appeal to youngsters so that they think it’s a revolutionary new thing … like … oh, I don’t know … perhaps a “gig” economy … oh, wait …
I’m assuming collectively we are not interesting enough here on PB to justify having any Russian readers following along, so here is what I’d do if I was on Team Putin in Russia:
Work pretty hard for the democrats in the leadup to the midterms.
Try to make sure they get a majority in the senate, through all means at Putin’s disposal.
Make sure someone clearly and totally Russian who has been photographed with Putin recently, and has emails from Putin personally on their laptop, gets caught trying to rig a counting machine, for the democrats, in a State where the democrats have no chance of taking the Senate seat even if it is a tidal wave election.
Pour a vodka and watch the Americans destroy themselves.
“I would institute a workplace regime that utterly dis-empowers workers, removes all job security and hard-won workplace rights, but then give it a really cool name that would appeal to youngsters so that they think it’s a revolutionary new thing … like … oh, I don’t know … perhaps a “gig” economy … oh, wait …”
Yeah, good point, I’m not wanting anything that realistic or nasty.
You think this is the end? I think this is probably just the beginning. I would expect lots of orchestrated chest beating between Putin and Trump.
Yes, especially with ‘Shock and Awe’ Bolton by his side. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that all of it will only serve to make Trump look impotent when his achievements amount to not a lot. It’s hard to feel patriotic and vote for a failure on the global stage.
Well said.
Plus the casualisation of the workforce coupled with low to no wage growth essentially is a form of modern slavery.
WeWantPaul
The ‘media’ of course. Propaganda rulz OK.. We are now all cool with torturing asylum seekers for their own good after our education from the ‘media’ . Nothing is too harsh for our ‘Dole bludgers’ out in 2GB land etc so slavery for the unemployed is no probs. Slavery ,using a Howard word, would incentivise the unemployed to get a job. Mutual obligation and all that.
Player One
Plus 100 for your comment.
Yeah I kinda see that as the path there, it is probably not necessary to develop another overlay to justify having got there for sometime afterwards.
WeWantPaul says: Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 5:46 pm
Pour a vodka and watch the Americans destroy themselves.
************************************************
THATS exactly what America is doing right now !!!!!!
– Putin has achieved more in over a year or two than all the rest of the Russian leaders have achieved in the 70 or so years after WW2 to destabilise the pillars of what America is built upon Security, FBI, Intelligence, NATO , neighbour against neighbour …….all smoking ruins ……. he has America/Western Alliances in Total Chaos for next to no effort – a bank of hackers and manipulation of social medias to turn American voters and voting processes …. all without a bullet being fired …
Most people think there is a very strong chance the Democrats will control the House and possibly get to 50+ Senators after the mid-terms, but that’s it. So it is probable that Trump will be impeached, but unless Democrats can engineer the numbers in the Senate, he won’t be removed.
The Democrats won’t need to get more than control of the Senate and the House. Then they can institute the Impeachment proceedings. This may well be enough to get the magic number of principled Republicans to support them.
“This may well be enough to get the magic number of principled Republicans to support them.”
You know any fraction of zero is zero right?
Boerwar
Oh yes you will 🙂
“THATS exactly what America is doing right now !!!!!!”
Yeah I agree, but having republican die-hards think the Russians helped give the dems the numbers in a situation where Trump is holding out with minority republican support and the dems controlling both houses but not being able to overcome a veto and this being locked in place for two years, and even then neither side trusting the election that is supposed to happen in 2020 ….
It is a fire that is well underway, but a little petrol can still achieve amazing things.
WeWantPaul says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 5:39 pm
“WW3 has not broken out. Russia will not put its own territorial integrity nor significant numbers of its personnel at risk for the sake of Assad. This is clear.”
You are almost certainly right about its territorial integrity but pffffft ‘significant numbers of its personnel at risk’ suggests a pretty big misunderstanding of Russia, Russian pride and how Russian’s felt after the fall of communism and how they feel now.
Russia will not risk its own force in any significant numbers. The defeat in Afghanistan contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. This will not be forgotten by the Russian court, who, like the CPSU, entirely lack popular legitimacy and could ill-afford a significant military defeat.
C@t:
If Democrats take control of the House they can begin impeachment proceedings, but if they can’t garner the numbers in the Senate they cannot have Trump removed from office. At the moment there are 48(?) 49(?) Democrat Senators. A long way from 67, and that even assumes that every Democrat would be locked and loaded behind impeachment in any case. From the public comments we’ve heard from sitting Dems, it would appear many aren’t even willing to go there.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 5:53 pm
Most people think there is a very strong chance the Democrats will control the House and possibly get to 50+ Senators after the mid-terms, but that’s it. So it is probable that Trump will be impeached, but unless Democrats can engineer the numbers in the Senate, he won’t be removed.
The Democrats won’t need to get more than control of the Senate and the House. Then they can institute the Impeachment proceedings. This may well be enough to get the magic number of principled Republicans to support them.
A majority in the House is required to impeach – to charge – a President. A two-thirds majority in the Senate is required to remove a President after a “hearing” of the charge/s.
“Russia will not risk its own force in any significant numbers. The defeat in Afghanistan contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. This will not be forgotten by the Russian court, who, like the CPSU, entirely lack popular legitimacy and could ill-afford a significant military defeat.”
I disagree. So long as the Russian man and woman in the street sees a path to Russian glory, even a significant sacrifice would be embraced, opposition would shrink rather than grow, behind a common cause. If anything experts I’ve heard have suggested Putin has been looking for external strife and ultimate Russia victory as a method to buttress domestic standing in difficult economic conditions.
I paraphrase the stuff I’ve read and heard in an ugly way, but I don’t get the ‘too weak and fragile’ to do anything sense about Putin or Putin’s Russia.
rhwombat @ #2245 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 5:39 pm
What a load of bull dust RHW
Really you should be ashamed of yourself.
You cannot sort fake news from real nes, Shame, Wombat, Shame
WeWantPaul says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 6:21 pm
“Russia will not risk its own force in any significant numbers. The defeat in Afghanistan contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. This will not be forgotten by the Russian court, who, like the CPSU, entirely lack popular legitimacy and could ill-afford a significant military defeat.”
I disagree. So long as the Russian man and woman in the street sees a path to Russian glory, even a significant sacrifice would be embraced, opposition would shrink rather than grow, behind a common cause. If anything experts I’ve heard have suggested Putin has been looking for external strife and ultimate Russia victory as a method to buttress domestic standing in difficult economic conditions.
I paraphrase the stuff I’ve read and heard in an ugly way, but I don’t get the ‘too weak and fragile’ to do anything sense about Putin or Putin’s Russia.
Yes, Putin is using – for sure, provoking – external conflicts for domestic purposes. No doubt about that. But he has so far avoided committing large-scale Russian forces in any theatre. Russia does not have the resources to fight-and-win in large scale contests. But it is using all kinds of alternative methods to achieve its ends. It’s important to understand what those ends include. To some extent they are territorial, notably in the lands adjacent to Russia itself. But they also include simply finding ways to disrupt and weaken Russia’s competitors, especially the democracies, and to extend its influence, in, for example, the Balkans and, as we can see, in the Mediterranean.
Clausewitz declared that “War is the continuation of politics by other means.” Putin certainly understands that maxim. Russia has goals and he is pursuing them by a wide variety of means. These include military methods, with the proviso that they must be relatively low-risk. This is necessarily so if only because Russia is a nuclear power and cannot afford to be drawn into a nuclear confrontation. This would be self-defeating, after all.
“This is necessarily so if only because Russia is a nuclear power and cannot afford to be drawn into a nuclear confrontation. This would be self-defeating, after all.”
On this we agree. Putin isn’t a crazy, unlike Trump.
WeWantPaul says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 6:49 pm
“This is necessarily so if only because Russia is a nuclear power and cannot afford to be drawn into a nuclear confrontation. This would be self-defeating, after all.”
On this we agree. Putin isn’t a crazy, unlike Trump.
Trump is Putin-friendly. He will sell out US interests. He already has.
Impeaching the president will inflict so much damage on the Republicans it won’t matter if Trump stays or goes.
briefly
And you know this is so because ? The James Jesus Angleton Gazette says so ?
Okay, so I’m an optimist. 🙂
poroti says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 6:55 pm
briefly
Yes, Putin is using – for sure, provoking – external conflicts for domestic purposes.
And you know this is so because ?
Because it is exactly what is occurring, as any observer can see.
Roger Miller @ #2273 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 4:54 pm
Why do you say that? The way I see it Republicans in Congress have locked and loaded behind Trump despite numerous transgressions both personal and policy-wise, and it’s only the few who aren’t re-contesting the midterms who are brave enough to speak out against him.
“And you know this is so because ? The James Jesus Angleton Gazette says so ?”‘
I don’t get the James Jesus Angleton Gazette here in Perth, sadly, but it is a pretty common theme amongst the Washington / Russia set as far as I can tell.
It is certainly not in the Democrats’ interests to successfully remove Trump (edit: prior to the 2020 elections).
Maybe they would get the impeachment on the record in the House if they win there … getting something back for Clinton’s impeachment and scoring the relevant political points with their base and never-Trump Republican voters and independents.
But I don’t think the Dems would move on to getting the Senate to convict him, if the numbers were even there.
The numbers would only be there if the Republicans saw Trump in office as a greater threat to their future election prospects than the opprobrium attached to knifing their own guy. Why the Democrats (thinking only of political advantage) would want to assist the Republicans in this manner is unclear to me.
And really, removing Trump doesn’t even have ‘greater good’ reasoning behind it. Pence would then be president, and in any real sense I don’t think that would be an improvement (not to sound like DTT, but I agree on that point). Actually removing Trump would be incredibly divisive, and there would be a fair number of potential Democrat voters who would see such an action as just vindicating Trump’s own rhetoric about the swamp, the fake news, how the system is protecting itself against necessary change agents, blah blah blah. And Trump, of course, would love to play the genuine victim in the aftermath – how to be the centre of attention without all that icky presidenty stuff to have to worry about.
WeWantPaul
They say they buy them for the articles but I reckon it is for the centrefolds. Full frontal Reds under every bed. , phwaoar !
Do we have enough armchairs to go round?
Boerwar
Yes General 🙂
Meanwhile in Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=VK6_tjizu_g
“They say they buy them for the articles but I reckon it is for the centrefolds. Full frontal Reds under every bed. , phwaoar !”
Call me old fashioned but I prefer my reds on the bed, or tied up nicely nearby, what good are they underneath?
The Tory right wing christian nutters will never, ever give up
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/guy-under-pressure-to-allow-gay-conversion-therapy-for-kids-20180414-p4z9lc.html
Confessions @ 7:30 pm
You’re very generous in using the word “transgressions”. It should be “blunders”. Trump changed the perception of what would be abnormal/ disgusting for other politicians as something casual / normal. That may be the reason you used “transgressions “.
I agree with you that impeachment by democrats will not damage Republicans. It will fire them up. It may even lead to breaking up of USA
Jackol:
I broadly agree with your statements, except that Pence would not be better than Trump. Pence would be a marked improvement on Trump on a number of fronts, most notably that an actual adult would be in the WH instead of some ageing toddler who has very public, very damaging tantrums when he gets advice he doesn’t like and simply fires people.
Ven:
Heh. I’m feeling mellow 😀
Ven
Dubya and his ‘legalisation’ of wars of aggression and torture sure as hell shifted the normal/abnormal boundaries.
rossmcg @ #2286 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 7:35 pm
Those same MPs won’t even stay away from parliament on a sacred day, so why take ANY notice of them and what they want at all!?!
Confessions
And yellow ? 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8DgszzXOo0
poroti @ #2289 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 5:40 pm
Trump has taken it way beyond policy though. The sheer number of scandals that have beset the Trump WH are unprecedented, most if not all of them at the President’s own hand. The casual racism and sexism is shrugged off as just Trump. Wife beaters and abusers are even welcome on Team Trump, to say nothing of the racists and sundry know-nothing deadbeats who make up his cabinet.
Purple is the better colour for mellow:
https://youtu.be/fjwWjx7Cw8I
Popularized by Jimi Hendrix’s 1967 classic, Purple Haze delivers a dreamy burst of euphoria that brings veteran consumers back to their psychedelic heyday. This nostalgic sativa staple remains cherished for its high-energy cerebral stimulation that awakens creativity and blissful contentment throughout the day.
🙂
C@t
I think we have to take notice of them. Guy could be premier of Victoria by Christmas (though hopefully Victorians have more sense) and the people pushing this stuff will be pulling his strings.
I don’t know about your neck of the woods but in WA the Christians are on the rise in the Liberal branches.
The thrashing of the Barnett government may have empowered them as people of moderate views drift away from the party leaving the way clear for extremists.
We have seen it this week with the demonstrations of support for the Saffer farmers.
rossmcg,
I cannot say this with any certainty, but my impression from over this side of the country is that the Evangelical movement is running out of steam. We know their schtick and their ‘Prosperity Gospel’ ethic is viewed with derision. Sure, it’s still kind of popular but I think it is plateauing rather than on the upswing.
True, we have our fair share of them in the NSW State Coalition government, like Hastie and Goodenough, but our ‘Lame Gay Churchy Losers’ are mainly of the Abbottesque Catholic variety. I would also add that NSW Labor has it’s Catholic contingent but it is the ‘faction’ personified by the John Falzon St Vincent De Paul type, not the Opus Dei type that the Liberals seem to attract.
Moreover, we tend to be sceptical enough of our religious types in politics here to not let them get away with too much that is obvious as an overtly religious type policy, such as absolutely discredited crap like ‘Gay Conversion Therapy’.
Anyway, our Premier, and her partner, would never let it through the party room. 😉
*taps nose*
“We have seen it this week with the demonstrations of support for the Saffer farmers.”
White supremacy rallies in Mandurah, just what WA needs.
When I heard on the car radio that Trump ordered the missile strike on Syria, my reaction was a shoulder shrug and a “some-one wants a boost in the polls/distraction from the really bad domestic stuff” wave of cynicism.
After hearing and reading more during the rest of the day, I have not changed my attitude.
Oh, and if they moved all the personnel from the sites, they obviously moved all the chemicals, equipment and data to a safe place as well. Trump would have bombed empty shells.
Hell, Trump and Putin could have cooked this up together. Win-Win for them both, internally.
Life seems to be cheap in the ME, no-one seems to be overly concerned about who or how many die, get gassed, starve to death or end up as refugees. Pawns to be sacrificed in the greater game, sadly. Social justice does not have a chance.
WWP
Mandurah a haven for One Nation as I am sure you know. Hastie is moving on that territory. Helps that he would be right at home in their ranks.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 7:50 pm
Purple is the better colour for mellow:
https://youtu.be/fjwWjx7Cw8I
Popularized by Jimi Hendrix’s 1967 classic, Purple Haze delivers a dreamy burst of euphoria that brings veteran consumers back to their psychedelic heyday. This nostalgic sativa staple remains cherished for its high-energy cerebral stimulation that awakens creativity and blissful contentment throughout the day.
For my money, the best rock guitarist and rock performer ever.
Yet our definition of good contemporary music is probably defined by that time between 12 and 25 when music forms a huge part of your life and thought.
I understand that there are some young people who think that good rock music continued after 1970.
Poor, deluded fools.
They were not in Mandurah but outside JBishop’s electorate office in Nedlands/Subiaco.