Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor continues to dominate on voting intention, though few seem impressed by its stance on Adani.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.

Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,546 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. ‘Fess – Yep things tickity boo here

    I like Labor bringing good policy front and centre.

    Am hopeful, genuine cases of low income can and will be addressed and much more good Labor policy yet to come.

    Plus of course Qaudbike spills the beans

    🙂

  2. can someone suggest why shorten released a major policy with any perception of controversy days before two major elections? is he trying to win votes? he looks so assured cocky even? what am i missing?
    ps i am not talking about policy only timing and perhaps reasoning of delivery – and perhaps also whether it needs not be so detailed, why not income tested or something

  3. So, updated Kill Bill That Went Nowhere List:

    Abbott: Gone
    Palmer: Gone
    Milne: Gone
    SenX: Gone
    Joyce: Gone
    Turnbull: Terminal
    Di Natale: Lose Batman and he’s terminal too

  4. Greensborough Growler @ #2440 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:12 pm

    bemused @ #2437 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:08 pm

    Steve777 @ #2328 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 8:11 pm

    I saw Quad… in some news footage on the ABC, black uniform and a chest full of medals, like some tinpot 3rd world dictator. Or may a senior official in a mid-European mid 20th century regime that shall remain nameless. Good riddance.

    The SS and Gestapo wore black uniforms.

    Your management wears white coats.

    How’s your treatment for coprophilia going?

  5. So the SMH quotes known conservative booster and dry economist Henry Ergas in its opinion piece against labor’s plan? Well done smh thanks for reminding me why I cancelled.

  6. Confessions @ #2462 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:34 pm

    ratsak @ #2457 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 7:30 pm

    Milne – Gone

    Yes I did consider Milne and my bad for not including her.

    Interesting. Milne regarded, quoted as the the ‘driving force ‘ in the greens voting with the tories against Carbon Pollution Reduction scheme, blocking introduction of a carbon price and setting back climate policies.

    That day lives for through the image of Bob Brown and friends grinning like fools surrounded by the libs while two of the libs risked their careers by crossing the floor. Well done Bob

    The Greens refusal in 2009 to back Labor’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme because it was not perfect, spelled the end of Kevin Rudd, chewed up Julia Gillard and fuelled the rise of Tony Abbott and the destructive era of opposition at all costs.

    Greens doing the tories work.

    Yet again!

    Almost a decade later, Australia still has no meaningful policy to tackle climate change and certainly nothing approaching bipartisan support.

  7. bemused @ #2468 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:40 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2440 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:12 pm

    bemused @ #2437 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:08 pm

    Steve777 @ #2328 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 8:11 pm

    I saw Quad… in some news footage on the ABC, black uniform and a chest full of medals, like some tinpot 3rd world dictator. Or may a senior official in a mid-European mid 20th century regime that shall remain nameless. Good riddance.

    The SS and Gestapo wore black uniforms.

    Your management wears white coats.

    How’s your treatment for coprophilia going?

    Have you stalked anyone else today?

  8. Geoffrey…..good time to release good policy….takes the attention away from all the Batman-related theatrics…away from the Trumpisms and empty gestures by Turnbull….Labor is serious and in business to govern

  9. Greensborough Growler @ #2472 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:43 pm

    bemused @ #2468 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:40 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2440 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:12 pm

    bemused @ #2437 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:08 pm

    Steve777 @ #2328 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 8:11 pm

    I saw Quad… in some news footage on the ABC, black uniform and a chest full of medals, like some tinpot 3rd world dictator. Or may a senior official in a mid-European mid 20th century regime that shall remain nameless. Good riddance.

    The SS and Gestapo wore black uniforms.

    Your management wears white coats.

    How’s your treatment for coprophilia going?

    Have you stalked anyone else today?

    Never stalked anyone, how about you?

  10. Henry @ #2470 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:42 pm

    So the SMH quotes known conservative booster and dry economist Henry Ergas in its opinion piece against labor’s plan? Well done smh thanks for reminding me why I cancelled.

    Yep. But more credible economist support Labour.

    Let it take its course. Its headed in the right direction provide genuine cases are protected.

    Much more policy coming of course.

  11. Dave:

    Hmm all that may be true. And yet I still find Milne a more authentic Greens leader than Di Natale.

    There is just something about Di Natale that rubs me the wrong way.

  12. doyley says:
    Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 10:02 pm
    Good evening all,

    The Victorian Catholic education office is robo calling Batman over the next two days.

    In th calls they rip into Turnbull and the greens and throw their support behind labor for committing to restoring millions of dollars ripped out of low fee catholic schools and state schools.

    Cheers.

    I heard on the radio that the campaign may go nationwide. The best bit is linking the Greens and LNP in their attack.

  13. Is it possible that Labor predict this policy to be a vote winner therefore release it before a by election? There would seem to be no other explanation as why would they release anything else in the week before an important by election, even something believed to have a neutral impact on the vote in question. You’d wait until the Monday morning after the election surely

  14. Confessions @ #2478 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:46 pm

    Dave:

    Hmm all that may be true. And yet I still find Milne a more authentic Greens leader than Di Natale.

    There is just something about Di Natale that rubs me the wrong way.

    Agree on RDiN, but Milne willfully destroyed any chance of climate change being addressed in Australia.

    That is a damning epitaph. The worst possible for a so called green.

    She failed the environment and herself.

    In spades.

    But she has a very nice income in ‘retirement’.

    Sorry Fess, but I see that as utter pathetic on her part.

    It doesn’t come much lamer.

    Its utter unforgivable – as she was was the most insistent damning voice that carried the greens, not only voting with the tories to vote CPRS down but they grinned laughed etc etc after doing so.

    If that ‘authentic green’ …well you might be right about being green.

    Hardly authentic.

    IMO anyway.

    It puts them all beyond the Pale.

    Frauds. Impostures.

  15. poroti @ #2323 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 4:03 pm

    Barney in Go Dau

    That’s the problem with growing up during the Cold War. Mutually Assured Destruction as a policy may have worked but it is definitely paranoia friendly. Never gave a shit about it , what with growing up in NZ and all, until going to San Diego in 1979. Yuuuge military bases all around and all day flights of jet fighters and bombers would cruise overhead. The Cold War hit me then. Each time i saw them it reminded me that if it went ‘hot” I was in one of the first places that would be turned to ash.

    Luckily I was born mid ’60s so I missed all of it.

    It’s certainly been an eye opener travelling and living abroad.

    Here in Vietnam, anyone around my age or older was growing up or actively living with the war.

    Similarly in Cambodia with the Khmer Rouge.

    I can’t even begin to imagine what any of them went through.

  16. The original Batman half hour episodes have been playing on SBS recently – I don’t know if they’ve now finished. Good corny entertainment.

  17. BRIEFLY, that’s good to hear that you are being well looked after in a Perth public hospital. How is your hand and can I ask what happened? My 73 year old mother was in Royal Perth Hospital recently with badly dislocated elbow. The care there was outstanding. The nurses and doctors have genuine empathy. However, she was transferred to a private hospital, St John of God because it was thought she might need a rehab hospital. Anyway, the private hospital was bloody awful. The staff were arrogant, and uncaring and the place was disorganised. Apparently they have a high staff turnover. Mum said that in hindsight she wishes she had of stayed at RPH.

  18. Classic 60s kitcsh confessions. Loved it. Their abseiling up a wall when it was very obviously the ground just made it all the more fun.
    Up there with the Brady Bunch and F Troop.

  19. “Is it possible that Labor predict this policy to be a vote winner therefore release it before a by election? There would seem to be no other explanation as why would they release anything else in the week before an important by election, even something believed to have a neutral impact on the vote in question. You’d wait until the Monday morning after the election surely”

    It is really good policy, strong economic leadership, two things even partisans had begun to doubt Shorten could / would / wanted to ever deliver.

    The next stage of the argument should be to show retired single women nurses, with physical injuries from years of hard manual work who don’t have a massive pile of shares and are trying to live on a tiny pension. That kind of pensioner who have given a life time of work without economic reward, living below the poverty line is the perfect counterpoint to these disgusting rich retirees who are bleating about the Govt not subsidising their lifestyle at the same time it sends the deserving hard working pensioners fake debt notices. (Notice I’m not saying the rich don’t deserve their wealth, it is perhaps doubtful but that is not an argument I want to have but I am saying they don’t deserve a massive Government tax holiday that none of the rest of us get).

  20. Confessions @ #2488 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 11:08 pm

    Dave:

    I agree re the carbon pricing. Unforgiveable by the Greens.

    But BBrown was still leader then not Milne.

    Milne was the so called “hard cock’ on that decision.

    She insisted the teal greens vote with abbott – against what Labor proposed.

    She pounded the tables. She insisted on the outcome of the decision.

    Yes Saint Bob went along with it.

    And their polling support has dropped 33% since its peak of 15%.

    Milne’s action that day should be ashes in her mouth – but I doubt she gives a damn.

    Very comfortable pension.

    FFS – what a wrecker.

    Then Australia got ‘dirty dick’ the tory.

  21. Speaking of Cold War fears I think growing up as a small child in the 80s was another paranoia inducing era. Lots of films and tv references to total annihilation at the press of a button.

    I always remember being alarmed at the mention of air raid sirens, shelters and drills etc. Living in Australia, I wondered why we had no local shelters or sign of “civil defense” preparations, and never experienced four minute warning practice drills. I reasoned that we were simply unprepared for the inevitable nuclear war that I fully expected to occur before I reached adulthood.

    Only as an adult did I realise the whole protect and survive thing the northern hemisphere countries peddled to their citizens was a probably just a weird sham, a kind of psyops exercise.

  22. Was listening on ABC news radio to Stan Grant on his ABC TV show ‘Matter of Fact’ interview some expert about the Russian situation with Skripal. Grant asked the guy why Russia would leave their fingerprints all over the Skripal poisoning. The guy said because little Vlad wants the world to know it was them – to boast of their ‘capabilities’. He said the same applied to the Litvinenko poisoning. I recall reading that the US intelligence agencies were of the same opinion about the Russian hacking of the DNC – their cyber fingerprints were all over it. It seems highly likely that this is a deliberate pattern by Putin to show off its capabilities to the world.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *