Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor continues to dominate on voting intention, though few seem impressed by its stance on Adani.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.

Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,546 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. [The Financial Review covers my position that reference to taxable income is a nonsense because Allocated Pensions are tax free]
    Exactly what I mean, being tax free dividend imputation should not apply.

  2. Darn

    In that case I really do apologise.

    I get so many Ebola comments on here that I forget who. I assumed you were one tog the old faithful attack dogs.

    So seriously I do apologise if that was your first Ebola comment.

    No problems DTT. Just a case of mistaken identity. It happens.

  3. Ive been trying to figure out this for a while but ive finally figured it out. Peter Dutton looks a bit like elon Mush before Musk had his hair transplant.

  4. I injured myself at work yesterday and had to have a bit of reconstructive surgery this evening on my hand.

    I’ve just woken up, a public patient in a State hospital in Perth, excellent care, very well run and organised.

    Thank goodness for Labor’s commitment to public health services.

    I am going doorknocking on Saturday for Kim Travers, Labor candidate for Pearce and on Sunday to the launch for Tony O’Gorman, candidate for Moore, happier than ever to campaign for Labor.

  5. One thing that has not been discussed is the”envy” angle.

    Many would love to set up their affairs so that, come their retirement, they get better than the pension by way of an artificially constructed rebate scheme. Bonus points if it’s their own company that generates the franked dividend (i.e. they are sole proprietors of the firm, but are NOT employees.).

    Their envy, or admiration, or aspiration to be a smartie could generate some blowback.

  6. However, he may have an action for back pay (if any is owed)

    Hasn’t he been on full pay for nearly a year while his case was hashed out?

    He may be due payout of accrued leave entitlements however.

  7. Happier than ever to work for the election of a Labor government- more disgusted than usual with the attempts of the bourgeois sect, the Crypto Tories, to disrupt Labor’s mission.

  8. I am going doorknocking on Saturday for Kim Travers

    Hopefully with your good hand!

    In all seriousness Briefly, wishing you a complete and full recovery and commiserations for your injury.

  9. Ides of March @9:21PM: “I’ve been trying to figure out this for a while but ive finally figured it out. Peter Dutton looks a bit like elon Mush before Musk had his hair transplant.”

    I always though that Peter Dutton resembled Peter Creedy, head of the secret police in a future dystopian Britain in the 2005 Movie “V for Vendetta”: https://goo.gl/images/zL9ECR

  10. Silent Majority

    No doubt plenty of references to what the Romans ever did to us.

    We sure know what he had his crew do to asylum seekers.

    Odd that he gets nine months on full pay while his case is sorted but one day after an asylum seeker’s visa expires and while her case is still being considered BF goons and the mob from Serco descend on the family in regional Queensland at dawn and put ’em in the van.

    Roman seems to upset that he had not had procedural fairness in his case. He should have been sacked months ago.

  11. Odd that he gets nine months on full pay while his case is sorted but one day after an asylum seeker’s visa expires and while her case is still being considered BF goons and the mob from Serco descend on the family in regional Queensland at dawn and put ’em in the van.

    What?! I thought Border Farce remit extended only within airports.

    Shades of the thuggish ICE in the US – a model we do not want to import here! Grrrrr.

  12. frednk @ #2276 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 6:37 pm

    Well we are into the bullshit tonight. USA could have won the war only if…………… A sure indication you didn’t live in the period or your memory in fading.

    https://thevietnamwar.info/how-much-vietnam-war-cost/

    The fourth largest expenditure and for what; a tiny little strip of land in Asia. They spent enough to bomb it back to the stone age twice and strip it of pretty much every tree; and still they lost. A lesson that pretty much lasted a generation.

    As for dividend imputation it was designed to stop company profits being taxed twice; not to stop company profits being taxed. Clearly if you are not paying tax then the company profits are not being tax twice are they. The superannuation scheme was never supposed to be for the maintaining of a capital base for the next generation. Your supposed to draw it down in your old age.

    The level of self interest bunkum is a sight to behold.

    Well said frednk!

  13. C@tmomma @ #2380 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 9:00 pm

    ESJ is a dill.

    I see him/ her as a source of some amusement and utter pathetic at the same time – eg

    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Tuesday, November 10, 2015 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    I reckon Shorten will quit before Christmas – most likely for health or family reasons.

    Edwina StJohn

    Posted Saturday, November 21, 2015 at 10:22 am | Permalink
    Less than 100 days left before Labor knifes Shorten.

    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Monday, November 16, 2015 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

    Election now! Lets put Bill Shorten out of his misery!

    William Bowe
    Posted Thursday, June 18, 2015 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    ESJ, are you really planning on spending a second week blubbering like a little girl who’s lost her dolly because you got called out for making shit up?

    Edward StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott….the right man to be the next Prime Minister of Australia.


    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Saturday, November 28, 2015 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    People will look back at December 2015 as peak Shorten. If only they had given Burkey a go – with his small business background he would have been able to bring Australians together!

  14. dave @ #2426 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 9:49 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2380 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 9:00 pm

    ESJ is a dill.

    I see him/ her as a source of some amusement and utter pathetic at the same time – eg

    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Tuesday, November 10, 2015 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    I reckon Shorten will quit before Christmas – most likely for health or family reasons.

    Edwina StJohn

    Posted Saturday, November 21, 2015 at 10:22 am | Permalink
    Less than 100 days left before Labor knifes Shorten.

    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Monday, November 16, 2015 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

    Election now! Lets put Bill Shorten out of his misery!

    William Bowe
    Posted Thursday, June 18, 2015 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    ESJ, are you really planning on spending a second week blubbering like a little girl who’s lost her dolly because you got called out for making shit up?

    Edward StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott….the right man to be the next Prime Minister of Australia.


    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Saturday, November 28, 2015 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    People will look back at December 2015 as peak Shorten. If only they had given Burkey a go – with his small business background he would have been able to bring Australians together!

    Everyone knows that ESJ and Rex are contrarian arseaches. So, you’re not telling anyone anything that they don’t even know.

    ESJ craves the publicity you provide. Better to ignore or call it a name of your own choosing.

    Reprinting its greatets hits is a trophy it aspires to.

  15. Edwina
    There is a rock over there. It sits on nice moist soil, beloved of various slugs and worms.

    Be a good chappess, and crawl back underneath it

  16. “…more disgusted than usual with the attempts of the bourgeois sect, the Crypto Tories, to disrupt Labor’s mission.”

    Presumably then, you have adopted the missionary position?

  17. Good evening all,

    The Victorian Catholic education office is robo calling Batman over the next two days.

    In th calls they rip into Turnbull and the greens and throw their support behind labor for committing to restoring millions of dollars ripped out of low fee catholic schools and state schools.

    Cheers.

  18. Nicholas @ #2357 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 8:46 pm

    Labor’s latest policy doesn’t seem to be doing too well.

    A scientific survey of people’s views on Labor’s policy on dividend imputation would probably find that the most common category of response is “What is dividend imputation?” I doubt that this policy will have an appreciable impact on voting intention. It’s an arcane piece of legislative housekeeping that a small number of people are directly affected by, and of those few who are affected, most probably vote LNP anyway.

    Well. Something I agree pretty wholly with Nicholas about. Mind you I do think more Labor voters than you think will be affected, but only to the tune of one or two hundred dollars. Most of these people will have picked up Telstra or CBA shares during privatisation and only get a few hundred in dividends anyway, and less in franking credit benefits. I expect that Labor will come up with a pretty comprehensive suite of benefits for genuine low income recipients (rather than high wealth/low taxable income earners).

  19. Greensborough Growler (AnonBlock)
    Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 9:56 pm
    Comment #2427

    dave @ #2426 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 9:49 pm

    Your in no position to tell others what to post.

    Naff off.

  20. meher baba @ #2336 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 8:18 pm

    As of 8.15 pm Thursday, Labor’s latest policy doesn’t seem to be doing too well. They’re struggling to get a consistent line on it and Ged K is starting to look a tad uncomfortable.

    As I said earlier today, it’s looking like a bridge too far for their big target tax strategy.

    They should take it off the table right away and promise a review when they get into government.

    Well, what a surprise finding you opposed to it.
    I sure am glad Labor does not take advice from you.

  21. Dave:

    I’m well, and hope you are too.

    Kill Bill has been running for the duration of his leadership and yet he is still there.

    Abbott: Gone
    Palmer: Gone
    SenX: Gone
    Joyce: Gone
    Turnbull: Terminal
    Di Natale: Lose Batman and he’s terminal too

    Am I missing anybody?

  22. Well bemused the dividend tax is just about dead – all of 48 hours later.

    Kisses to you dave and ESJ! Go in peace and sin no more!

  23. C@tmomma @ #2376 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 8:57 pm

    Well the ABC just played a vox pop with some of the voters of Batman who live north of Bell(?) St, and to a man and woman they said they were more interested in hearing about what the candidate for the seat would do about issues OTHER THAN Adani and Asylum Seekers. They wanted to know what the candidates would do for their family. No one mentioned Labor’s new cashback Dividend Imputation policy either.

    So the Green dastards thought they were on winners. 😀

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *