Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor continues to dominate on voting intention, though few seem impressed by its stance on Adani.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.

Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,546 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. It’s been reported that Shifty Bill has refused to release Parliamentary Budget Office costings of its policy.
    What’s to hide ?

  2. Labor’s latest policy doesn’t seem to be doing too well.

    A scientific survey of people’s views on Labor’s policy on dividend imputation would probably find that the most common category of response is “What is dividend imputation?” I doubt that this policy will have an appreciable impact on voting intention. It’s an arcane piece of legislative housekeeping that a small number of people are directly affected by, and of those few who are affected, most probably vote LNP anyway.

  3. “The Greens do have concerns about the possible unintended consequences these changes could have on struggling pensioners in particular and we’ll be looking at this proposal very closely to ensure that they are not worse off.
    “The Greens are going to be scrutinising this proposal very closely in the Senate to make sure that any proposed legislation doesn’t make inequality worse for struggling pensioners, and we will use our numbers in the senate to fix it.”

    Very reasonable position for DiNatale to take.

  4. EDJ and Meha Baba put attacking with lame excuses.

    Rich pensioners have rorted the system and allowed highly paid MPs and Government bosses get away with murder.

  5. ESJ:

    Gillard is a former Labor PM, as is Bob Hawke whom I also recall gave her a shout out. I’d reckon Kearney would be very satisfied with their endorsments.

  6. Rex Douglas: “It’s been reported that Shifty Bill has refused to release Parliamentary Budget Office costings of its policy. What’s to hide ?”

    I can’t say I recall anybody from any party releasing detailed PBO costings. I can’t really see why they would: the PBO is a highly creditable source of costings, so we should all take their word for it being $59 billion over 10 years.

  7. Far too long the rich entitled has had it special and Greens policy of”wait and see” is all bullshit.

    I am sick and tired of their BS of waiting on the sidelines.

    Many people like me on DSP have suffered under LNP government because Greens inability to side with Labor on protecting Welfare and Workers, Education and Health.

  8. fess: “Gillard is a former Labor PM, as is Bob Hawke whom I also recall gave her a shout out. I’d reckon Kearney would be very satisfied with their endorsments.”

    Did former PM K Rudd endorse her?

  9. No one local seems to want to have a bar of Gerardine confessions. Theres a smell there – sadly for the ACTU and Labor.

    Out of town token endorsements like these from Gillard are usually premonitions of doom! Labor identities want to be on the record before the final defeat! Sad!

  10. “It’s been reported that Shifty Bill has refused to release Parliamentary Budget Office costings of its policy.
    What’s to hide ?”
    How many years did you say you’ve a Labor Party member for, Rexy?

  11. zoidloid: “EDJ and Meha Baba put attacking with lame excuses.”

    I didn’t attack anyone or anything. I posted earlier today that I thought the current rebate system should probably be changed, but I would prefer to see that done in a more wholistic reform of taxation arrangements for retirees.

    I also posted that I think that the policy is playing out badly for Labor today. That’s an opinion, not an attack on anyone.

    ESJ (I assume you meant) can speak for him or herself. If I were him or her I’d change my moniker in case it incurs the wrath of the ghost of the gorgeous Ainsley Gotto.

  12. Well the ABC just played a vox pop with some of the voters of Batman who live north of Bell(?) St, and to a man and woman they said they were more interested in hearing about what the candidate for the seat would do about issues OTHER THAN Adani and Asylum Seekers. They wanted to know what the candidates would do for their family. No one mentioned Labor’s new cashback Dividend Imputation policy either.

  13. No one local seems to want to have a bar of Gerardine

    I don’t think that’s true at all.

    That said, everyone wanted to be photographed with KK in Sydney and she didn’t win, so your statement that endorsements are an indication of impending doom seems far-fetched to me.

  14. Sprocket, um the Shadow AG dude and the Shadow Workplace Relations hack don’t really count as locals.

    Next thing your going to do is post a photo of Gerardine with Jenny Macklin! Sad!

  15. Confessions

    Rudd does not have an “issue” with women. His issue is with people who are not Rudd. ‘Not Rudd’ people are intellectually inferior and their failing is not to recognise the smartest chap in the room. Or something like that.

  16. Confessions – you don’t want your personal brand associated with a loser like Gerardine so you don’t campaign publicly. but you want to be on the record as a “supporter” so you make one of these lame last minute twitter endorsements.

    Note how Shorten learnt the lesson of Bennelong and has stayed a million miles away from Gerardine – so as to avoid the fall out if she goes down.

  17. I think Rudd is increasingly having an issue with the ALP and vice versa. I think he’s hoping against hope that Turnbull will be deposed in favour of JBish, and that he might be rewarded with a trinket of some sort.

    I actually feel a little bit sorry for him: he hasn’t looked well for quite some time.

  18. The Liberals should lose points on Newspoll, because they can’t in the actual competition on Saturday, for being too gutless to contest the Batman by-election

  19. Darn @ #2322 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 7:04 pm

    So Darn give it a rest. You are becoming boring and just a tad obsessive on this one.

    Just for the record, that post you responded to is the only one I have ever made on the subject, as far as I recall.

    Also, I think it will be very evident to most PBs which of the two of us is being obsessive.


    In that case I really do apologise.

    I get so many Ebola comments on here that I forget who. I assumed you were one tog the old faithful attack dogs.

    So seriously I do apologise if that was your first Ebola comment.

  20. Rex, the bitter enders will never accept Shorten doesn’t work as leader.

    It will take someone like Marles to turn on Shorten to end this ill fated spectacle!

  21. poroti:

    Perhaps I should’ve qualified: my observation of Rudd is that he is a bit like those men who dislike intelligent capable women.

    I also think Meher is right too about his issue being with the ALP. I however do not feel sorry for him. You reap what you sow and so it has come to be with Kevvie.

  22. Well of course to have one anti-party leader like Rudd is unfortunate, but to have two anti-party leaders (Latham) well what can one say?

    I still think Shorten will be the third anti-party leader in time.

  23. There is now support for the Franking credit being returned as cash position of Labor in the Financial Review and from the Grattan Institute where Mrs Turnbull is on the Board

    The Financial Review covers my position that reference to taxable income is a nonsense because Allocated Pensions are tax free

    St John was a Liberal Federal MP from NSW

  24. Well of course to have one anti-party leader like Rudd is unfortunate, but to have two anti-party leaders (Latham) well what can one say?

    That Labor was stupidly spooked by the faux Howard zeitgeist?

  25. I think there is actually a new category of support troll – you drive more support for a bad position by attacking the bad position. ie attack Labor to drive more support for Labor.

  26. Rex and EDJ OBVIOUSLY wanted everyone to get $160K a year including us pesky Disabled or Age Pensioners and then receive $12k rebate.

    Fuck that Rex / EDJ

  27. Usually members of the Senior Executive Service are NOT entitled to natural justice in disciplinary matters. They are paid the big bucks to serve at the minister’s sole pleasure. In other words they can be summarily sacked to avoid embarrassment to the government.

    Q’s position as a commissioned officer slightly complicates this, but if the GG signs off on the termination that’s the ultimate authority.

    However, he may have an action for back pay (if any is owed), and can certainly sue anyone who repeats the story too loosely for defamation. This is not a court case and privilege will be qualified, restricted to only those with formal executive involvement in the administration of the case.

    This may be the real reason no-one’s saying much.

    Other than that, couldn’t have happened to a nicer fella.

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