Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor continues to dominate on voting intention, though few seem impressed by its stance on Adani.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.

Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,546 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Sorry if I have upset your ickle ego, but truly sometimes people are just gullible fools. I have no patience for such nonsense.

    Too many of you treat it like a footy match. It IS NOT

    The imbecilic actions of the UK risk nuclear war.

    First it was ebola that was going to wipe us all out and now nuclear war. What is it that is driving this constant hysteria?

  2. Observer

    Thanks for sharing.

    I feel your pain as a struggling low income earner.

    What brand of pet food do you and your wife prefer? And is it dog or cat or do you mix it up?

  3. Dan Gulberry @ #2298 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 7:04 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2283 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 3:43 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #2253 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2249 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 3:20 pm

    An extremely high pergola might counter them!

    What about kevlar umbrellas?

    My preference would be for the Juliavar model!

    SSSHHH!!! You just set off the bemused trigger.

  4. Jackol

    Sorry for assuming your comprehension skills.

    By “qualitative relationship” with the ATO (Vs “quantitative relationship”) I mean that two taxpayers might pay the exact same amount of tax (quantitative) whilst their tax returns might have totally different income amounts, income sources, deductible amounts, deductible items.

    I repeat again …. under Keating’s imputation the credit allowed to taxpayers because their dividend has been paid by the company, is by way of a deductible item when they do their tax return. The ATO treats it as any deductible by a taxpayer.

    What you are arguing is that you should receive a tax deduction even though you don’t pay tax.

    And since you (rather aggressively) accuse me of inventing an argument, let me assure you that as a non-taxpayer since that status was created for superannuants by Costello in 2006, I have been receiving about $2300 each year under this scheme, and all those years a little voice has been saying in my head “this is too good to be true …. make the most of it because it can’t possibly last”.

  5. I don’t know how Fair Work Cases run but presumably the Commonwealth is not obliged to call witnesses eg Cash.

    If the AWU subpoena Cash and others to give evidence this would mean that they are going to be called in AWU’s case which would be surprising because they lose the right of cross-examination.

  6. Ahh well, we have a dog – and a bird

    The dog, a pure bred with Scottish heritage, eats in the manner accustomed – also being a devourer of treats where we have to monitor what the Grandkids lavish her with

    The bird is similarly spoiled

    It is tough being officially designated a Low Income Earner by the government

    The advice to buy bank shares to receive a cash payout whilst paying no tax was presented to us but we declined the advice

    Was not interested in the underlying principle

    We have what we have from our own industry and effort exclusively so something for nothing did not pass the integrity test

  7. After reading through all the arguments for and against over the last couple of days, the one that def settles it for me is that a regime seeking to prevent double taxation on company profits should not be used to accomplish zero taxation on company profits.

    That double taxation oughtnt to be prevented is debatable, but severable from the debatability of zero taxation… the latter to be is indefensible.

    That the outcome appears regressive is only because any previous progressive element was based on this indefensible foundation.

    On a separate note, as a former expat having spent 16 yrs in Sth Africa, can i just +++1 on what a piece of racist excrement Dutton is with this white farmer rubbish. Disgusting.

  8. Darn @ #2297 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 6:04 pm

    Sorry if I have upset your ickle ego, but truly sometimes people are just gullible fools. I have no patience for such nonsense.

    Too many of you treat it like a footy match. It IS NOT

    The imbecilic actions of the UK risk nuclear war.

    First it was ebola that was going to wipe us all out and now nuclear war. What is it that is driving this constant hysteria?


    I am tempted to say ability to read.

    Firstly I am really getting bloody well sick of the Ebola stuff.

    It was a risk, still is a risk but lower and would have been a bloody nightmare if it had spread to India. Honestly the ignorance and complacency of people amazes me.

    I never ever, ever, ever, ever ever, said Ebola would wipe ups out. i did say we were not particularly well prepared in our hospitals etc. Nothing weird or paranoid or fearful, just stating what should be obvious to any half trained medic.

    So Darn give it a rest. You are becoming boring and just a tad obsessive on this one.

    The nuclear war one is a product of being raised in a ban the bomb household and being aware of the Cuban crisis as a child.

    Moreover Darn I tend to take it seriously when a world leader with command of 3000 or more nukes tells the world that threaten my country or my allies and I may use them. Not every one is a blustering buffoon .

    The other reason Darn that I fear nuclear war is that there is within the USA a solid faction who actually WANT war. This faction believes that it is wisest to strike first before Russia/China, has sufficient stregth to fight back.

    Why do you think Putin made his little speech on March 1. For fun. Basically he was telling the USA. it is too late. We have already got the weapons to defeat yours. Do not attack us. Now he was almost certainly exaggerating or at least was being 1-5 years premature but the purpose was obvious – do not attack Russia or our critical allies.

    Why did Putin order a mass nuclear survival drill. Clearly Russians fear the USA. Perhaps they all suffer from mass paranoia but I doubt it.

  9. It is a weird World we live in. A multi Millionaire household (no offence observer) is rewarded with extra benefits by the Government, while people on disability pension are punished, mentally ill people are punished, genuine low income earners and pensioners are squeezed by the Government, unemployed are squeezed and our Universal Health scheme is squeezed to the bare minimum, education is squeezed, except for the wealthy private schools.
    It is a weird World we live in. Yet we are aged pensioners with $40,000 in the bank and we are quite comfortable in our lifestyle and own our own home.

  10. Observer

    I thought your post was refreshingly honest. Were’s the crime in benefitting from your own industry as you put it.

    Just don’t admit to having a private school education. Even though close to 100% of students don’t really have a say in for some reason around here it equals almost auto right winger.

  11. Old Spoke @ #2131 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 3:03 pm

    In fact, to be purely correct, labor’s reform should not just ban the cash back but should only allow franking credits to be applied against tax payable on dividend income, not income from other sources.

    Ah, so close!

    To be purely correct, Labor’s reform should eliminate dividend imputation and franking credits altogether.

  12. It seems to me that dtt’s major fear is that having lived her life with all these fears, her greatest fear is that nothing happens and there was nothing to really fear!

  13. Jackol
    I can appreciate your circumstances and I reckon you are not alone.

    This would not be the best time to do it, but from what I can glean, you probably would be able to apply for a disability pension. I suggest you get hold of the criteria for this pension and look at what you need to put in an application and have the required criteria, starting with a diagnosis from a Psychiatrist or Clinical Psychologist.

    To do this you will need support and someone behind you who knows the system and can help you through it.
    I suggest you start here.

    If you decide to do this, let your doctor know that you will be under a bit more stress. Expect the rejection and have your appeal ready to go, at each stage.

    For my family member, I took him right through to the AAT where Welfare Rights provided a support person.

    It is not just the money, it the programs you can access, and a mobility allowance if you are studing/volunteering.

    I can understand anyone who can avoid applying for DSP doing that, but the most your pension would be reduced by your income is 50c in the dollar after the first $90 or so a fortnight. So you would get the full pension less less than 6k of your 12k a year.

    I hope that gives you something to think about.

  14. a r says:
    Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 7:49 pm
    To be purely correct, Labor’s reform should eliminate dividend imputation and franking credits altogether.

    The ALP should not be in the business of rationalising regressive taxes.

  15. Looks like the dividend tax policy has lasted all of about 48 hours. Oh dear!

    Where is the policy concentration and effort? Sad!

  16. Barney in Go Dau

    That’s the problem with growing up during the Cold War. Mutually Assured Destruction as a policy may have worked but it is definitely paranoia friendly. Never gave a shit about it , what with growing up in NZ and all, until going to San Diego in 1979. Yuuuge military bases all around and all day flights of jet fighters and bombers would cruise overhead. The Cold War hit me then. Each time i saw them it reminded me that if it went ‘hot” I was in one of the first places that would be turned to ash.

  17. So Darn give it a rest. You are becoming boring and just a tad obsessive on this one.

    Just for the record, that post you responded to is the only one I have ever made on the subject, as far as I recall.

    Also, I think it will be very evident to most PBs which of the two of us is being obsessive.

  18. I saw Quad… in some news footage on the ABC, black uniform and a chest full of medals, like some tinpot 3rd world dictator. Or may a senior official in a mid-European mid 20th century regime that shall remain nameless. Good riddance.

  19. ESJ

    I hear that Bill Shorten will introduce confiscatory wealth taxes for those with more than $1 billion inherited and remove the tax free status of the Menzies Institute and the IPA. Vote winner?

  20. Edwina StJohn @ #2329 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 5:13 pm

    How Labor, celebrating the man losing his job.

    Workers are dirty says Modern Labor! Sad!

    Labor believes only those who are competent and performing their job well should retain high-paying taxpayer funded positions.

    Unlike the coalition who believe that as long as you’re a mate of a mate or an ideological bedfellow, it’s fine to punt you into govt sinecures.

  21. Gerardine is distancing herself from the dividend tax sprocket. Just like Adani, Bill was for the dividend tax before he was against it.

  22. As of 8.15 pm Thursday, Labor’s latest policy doesn’t seem to be doing too well. They’re struggling to get a consistent line on it and Ged K is starting to look a tad uncomfortable.

    As I said earlier today, it’s looking like a bridge too far for their big target tax strategy.

    They should take it off the table right away and promise a review when they get into government.

  23. spr
    It goes further. Apparently back taxes are going to be charged against multi nationals which have offshored profits in order not to pay any tax at all.
    Tax deductions for outfits like the IPA will exorcized and taxes backdated.
    Learning from the deeming principles applied to poor pensioners, taxes are to applied to deemed profits of corporates.
    Family trusts will become illegal and distributions going back to 2000 will be deemed and taxed at the top marginal rate.
    Negative gearing will go.
    Capital gains exemptions for family homes above $500,000 will go as well.

  24. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 4:38 pm

    Of course the US could subjugate Afghanistan. It would have to mean to do so. At the moment it is content to run a limited war for limited war objectives.

    That is the five gold star, chockie frog and bar award for the most stupid statement ever to appear on this blog.

    And there have been some beauties.

    I dips me lid.

  25. Why not be honest and admit Labor is very keen on wealth seizure and expropriation

    Why not be honest and admit that “Liberal” policy with regard to wealth is best expressed in Matthew 25:29:

    “For to every one who has will more be given, and he will have abundance; but from him who has not, even what he has will be taken away.”

    Remember how the Coalition wanted to increase the GST to 15%? And the proceeds? Hand back in corporate tax cuts. That strategy proved impossible so they’ve gone for “Starve the beast”: deliberately damage the Budget in order to force future cuts, and not to concessions and subsidies enjoyed by their mates, that’s for sure.

  26. Labor on return to government could also appoint a Palwatch Commissioner at something Like SES Grade 2 for an independently selected Labor hack?

  27. Steve

    one of Quad’s medals is the Australian Police Medal. My late brother got that for front line work, Quad got his for being in the office on time every day.

  28. Labor supports workers. Quad was paid the equivalent of over 50 unemployment benefits to sit on his arse for nearly a year. Worker? I don’t think so.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *